MPLX

Metaplex Price Today & AI Analysis

MPLXSolanaAnalysis as of Jul 3, 2026

Price

$0.0560

+0.87% 24h

Contract

Live
METAewgxyPbgwsseH8T16a39CQ5VyVxZi9zXiDPY18m

Chain

Solana

Holders

25,035

Market cap

$55,991,518

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Metaplex: holders, selling & liquidity

2026-07-03 03:18 UTC

Holder addresses

8,947

Top 10 supply share

Not available

Reported liquidity

$4,067,296.35
How concentrated is Metaplex ownership?
Top-10 ownership concentration is not available in this report. The saved holder count is 8,947 addresses (2026-07-03 03:18 UTC). A holder count alone does not establish how supply is distributed.
Are large holders selling Metaplex?
This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. A complete buy/sell volume observation is not available in the saved inputs. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.
Is Metaplex liquidity falling?
As of 2026-07-03 03:18 UTC, reported liquidity was $4,067,296.35. At least two timestamped liquidity observations are needed to establish a change; this report does not have them.
Sources, observations & limitations

Source: inputs saved with the report generated 2026-07-03 03:18 UTC. Original provider retrieval times and historical samples were not recorded. Legacy zero placeholders are treated as unavailable. Holder addresses are not unique people. The provider’s top-10 share is not adjusted here for pools, exchanges, burn addresses or related wallets. Sniper classifications and wallet-level holder history are unavailable. Inspect token on the block explorer.

Recent swap evidence

Swap evidence is unavailable for this report.

Report snapshot

as of Jul 3, 03:18 AM UTC

FDV

$24,101,323

Liquidity

$4,067,296.35

Holders

8,947

Snipers

Not available

Risk

High
Loading price chart…

AI Executive Summary

Risk

High

Sentiment

Bullish

Metaplex (MPLX) is the foundational NFT and token standard protocol on Solana, with a verified contract and ~$24.1M fully diluted valuation at $0.0241/token. The token has experienced a sharp 17.9% price spike in the most recent candle (candle [1]), driven by a large volume surge to $90.5M in that single hour — dwarfing all prior hourly volumes. Despite this bullish price action, the holder base has been in persistent decline for 30 consecutive days, falling from ~14,538 to ~8,947 (-38.5%). Supply is highly concentrated, with the top 10 holders controlling 64.12% and top 100 controlling 95.05%. Liquidity stands at $4.07M against a $24.1M FDV, which is moderate. No sniper data is available.

Key points

  • Foundational Solana infrastructure protocol — creator of 99%+ of Solana NFTs and tokens
  • Verified contract with active social presence (Discord, Reddit, Twitter, GitHub, website)
  • Protocol revenue buyback mechanism: 50% of revenue used to buy back MPLX for DAO
  • Massive single-candle volume spike ($90.5M in 1 hour) driving 17.9% price gain
  • Persistent 30-day holder decline of -66% is a significant structural concern

AI Price Analysis

bullish

Short term · 24–72 hours

bullish

The token just printed a massive bullish candle (candle [1]) with a close at $0.02410, up from ~$0.02088 open — a ~15.4% move in a single hour on $90.5M volume. This is a significant breakout above the prior 23-hour consolidation range of ~$0.02037–$0.02115. Short-term momentum is strongly bullish, but the extreme volume spike raises the risk of a mean-reversion pullback. Immediate support is the breakout level near $0.02088; resistance is the current high of $0.02410.

Target low

$0.02088

Target high

$0.02650

Support

$0.02088 (breakout candle open / prior range top), $0.02076 (candle [13] low), $0.02039 (candle [19] low)

Resistance

$0.02410 (current high / candle [1] close), $0.02650 (estimated extension ~10% above breakout), $0.02115 (prior 23-hour range high)

Medium term · 2–4 weeks

neutral

Medium-term outlook is neutral-to-cautious. The persistent 30-day holder decline (-66% from ~14,538 to ~8,947) signals sustained selling pressure and disengagement. While the protocol has strong fundamentals as Solana's NFT/token standard, the token price has been range-bound at ~$0.020–$0.021 for most of the prior 23 hours before the spike. Sustaining the breakout requires continued buy pressure and new holder acquisition. The buyback mechanism from protocol revenue provides a structural floor.

Catalysts

  • Continuation of protocol revenue buybacks supporting price
  • Broader Solana ecosystem growth driving MPLX utility demand
  • Reversal of holder decline trend signaling renewed community interest
  • Potential new product launches or partnerships announced via social channels

Bullish factors

  • 17.9% price gain in 24h with 62% buy pressure ($978.99K buys vs $599.15K sells)
  • Massive volume spike in candle [1] ($90.5M) suggesting large institutional or whale accumulation
  • Verified contract, established protocol with real utility and revenue
  • 50% protocol revenue buyback mechanism provides structural demand
  • Net positive buy/sell ratio: 3,935 buys vs 3,621 sells in 24h

Bearish factors

  • 30-day holder decline of -66% (from ~14,538 to ~8,947) — persistent and accelerating
  • Top 10 holders control 64.12% of supply — extreme concentration risk
  • Top 100 holders control 95.05% — nearly all supply in very few hands
  • Anomalous single-candle volume spike may not be sustainable organic demand
  • Update authority not renounced (CPqaAMQicq2uhCoxc8SNFNq8iWSHs7j7qdJGyehfUdC6), token is mutable
  • Liquidity of $4.07M vs $24.1M FDV = ~16.9% liquidity ratio, moderate slippage risk for large trades

Confidence: low. The single-candle $90.5M volume spike is anomalous and may represent a one-time event (large OTC trade, wash trade, or whale accumulation) rather than sustained organic demand. The 30-day holder decline trend is deeply bearish structurally. With no sniper data and limited candle history, confidence in directional prediction is low.

MPLX call history

Full track record →

Jul 3bullish
24h+76.9%
7d+32.0%
30d—

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

Chain
Solana
Contract
METAew...Y18m
Total Supply
999,981,707.58 MPLX

Key Risks

  • Extreme supply concentration: top 10 hold 64.12%, top 100 hold 95.05% — whale sell pressure could be devastating
  • Persistent 30-day holder decline of -66% (5,868 holders lost) with no sign of reversal
  • Anomalous $90.5M single-candle volume spike may not represent sustainable organic demand
  • Token metadata is mutable with non-renounced update authority

Smart money & sniper coverage

Sniper classifications and wallet-level trading histories are not available in this report. Sniper concentration, profit-taking and dump risk have not been assessed.

Deep Analysis

The 24-hour OHLC series shows 23 hours of tight consolidation between ~$0.02037 and ~$0.02115, followed by a massive breakout candle (candle [1], 03:00 UTC July 3) that opened at $0.02089 and closed at $0.02410 on $90.5M volume — roughly 40x the volume of any prior candle in the series. The prior 23 candles show a gradual upward drift from ~$0.02037 (candle [22] low) to ~$0.02115 (candle [17] high), with consistently low volumes (138–10,993 USD range). The breakout candle is a strong bullish marubozu-style candle with no upper wick, suggesting aggressive buying through the close.

Trend

Short-term

Uptrend

Medium-term

Sideways

Short-term trend is sharply bullish following the breakout candle. Medium-term (prior 23 hours) was sideways with a slight upward bias. The 30-day holder data implies a broader downtrend in community engagement, though price action in the candle window does not show a clear multi-day downtrend.

Momentum & Volume

Momentum

Overbought

Volume trend

Increasing

Buy

62%

Sell

38%

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$0.02088 (candle [1] open / breakout level)

Major support

$0.02037 (candle [22] low — bottom of prior consolidation range)

Immediate resistance

$0.02410 (candle [1] high/close — current price)

Major resistance

$0.02650 (estimated ~10% extension above breakout, no prior data ceiling)

The $0.02088 level is the critical near-term support — it was the open of the breakout candle and the top of the prior 23-hour consolidation range. A close below this level would negate the breakout. The $0.02037–$0.02040 zone (candles [21]–[22] lows) represents the floor of the prior consolidation. On the upside, $0.02410 is the only defined resistance from the current data; further resistance levels require longer historical data.

Notable patterns

  • Bullish marubozu breakout candle (candle [1]): opens at low, closes at high, no upper wick — strong bullish momentum signal
  • 23-hour tight consolidation range (~$0.02037–$0.02115) preceding the breakout — classic accumulation-then-breakout pattern
  • Higher lows visible across candles [22]→[19]→[13]: $0.02037, $0.02045, $0.02076 — gradual bullish drift before breakout
  • Anomalous volume spike (candle [1] $90.5M vs prior average ~$2,500) — potential whale accumulation or single large trade event
  • Candle [17] volume spike ($2.1M) may represent early smart money positioning ~12 hours before the main breakout

Liquidity

Liquidity

$4,067,296.35

Depth

Moderate

Slippage risk

Medium

Total liquidity of $4.07M against a $24.1M FDV represents a liquidity-to-FDV ratio of ~16.9%, which is moderate for a Solana DeFi token. The single Raydium pair (BxRhW4q1wTRwJkJ1C4NR4yJCRL2uusoju4g1bVenspZK) holds 3.88% of supply (~38.8M tokens). The 24h net flow is positive with $978.99K in buys vs $599.15K in sells (62%/38% split), though the anomalous $90.5M candle [1] volume suggests a single large trade may dominate the 24h figures. Notably, there are slightly more unique sellers (682) than buyers (657), indicating broader distribution pressure despite the net positive volume. Slippage risk is medium — a $4.07M liquidity pool can absorb moderate trades but large whale exits (given 64% top-10 concentration) could cause significant price impact.

Supply & authorities

Total supply

999,981,707.58 MPLX

FDV

$24,101,323.23

Mint authority

Not available

Freeze authority

Not available

Mint and freeze authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations. Metadata update authority does not establish either permission.

  • Volatilityhigh

    17.9% price spike in 24h driven by an anomalous $90.5M single-candle volume event. Such extreme intraday volatility is typical of low-liquidity tokens subject to whale-driven price action. Mean-reversion risk is elevated.

  • Liquiditymedium

    Total liquidity of $4.07M against $24.1M FDV (~16.9% ratio) is moderate. Sufficient for retail-sized trades but large positions face meaningful slippage. A whale exit from the top holders (who control 64.12%) could severely impact liquidity.

  • ConcentrationNot assessed

    Ownership concentration cannot be assessed without a measured supply distribution.

  • Sniper DumpNot assessed

    Sniper classifications and wallet trading histories are unavailable.

  • AuthorityNot assessed

    Contract or authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations.

Key risks

  • Extreme supply concentration: top 10 hold 64.12%, top 100 hold 95.05% — whale sell pressure could be devastating
  • Persistent 30-day holder decline of -66% (5,868 holders lost) with no sign of reversal
  • Anomalous $90.5M single-candle volume spike may not represent sustainable organic demand
  • Token metadata is mutable with non-renounced update authority
  • Mint and freeze authority status unknown — cannot confirm full rug protection
  • Liquidity of $4.07M is insufficient to absorb large whale exits without significant price impact

Mitigating factors

  • Verified contract with established Solana ecosystem presence and real utility
  • 50% protocol revenue buyback mechanism provides structural demand floor
  • Active social presence (Discord, Reddit, Twitter, GitHub, website) indicates ongoing development
  • Metaplex is foundational infrastructure — not a speculative meme token
  • 62% buy pressure in 24h with net positive volume inflow
  • Top holders likely include protocol treasury/DAO wallets subject to governance constraints

Suitable for

Suitable only for high-risk-tolerant investors with deep familiarity with Solana DeFi. The combination of extreme supply concentration, persistent holder decline, mutable token metadata, and anomalous volume spike makes this unsuitable for conservative or moderate-risk investors. Position sizing should be small relative to portfolio. Not suitable as a core holding.

MPLX represents a high-risk, high-reward bet on Metaplex's continued dominance as Solana's NFT and token standard infrastructure. The protocol has genuine utility and a revenue-driven buyback mechanism, but the token exhibits severe supply concentration, a persistent 30-day holder exodus, and a recent anomalous price spike that may not be sustainable. The investment case hinges on whether the protocol's fundamental value translates into token demand.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

Metaplex maintains and expands its dominance as Solana's token/NFT standard. Protocol revenue grows with Solana ecosystem expansion, driving meaningful MPLX buybacks. The recent price spike represents genuine whale accumulation ahead of a catalyst (new product, partnership, or ecosystem growth). Holder decline reverses as new retail participants discover the token.

  • Solana ecosystem growth driving increased Metaplex protocol usage and revenue
  • 50% revenue buyback mechanism creating sustained buy pressure
  • New product launches or major partnerships announced
  • Broader crypto bull market lifting all Solana ecosystem tokens
  • Reversal of holder decline trend

Base Case

Price consolidates in the $0.021–$0.026 range following the spike, with moderate volatility. Holder decline continues at a slower pace. Protocol buybacks provide a floor but are insufficient to drive significant appreciation. MPLX trades as a low-liquidity infrastructure token with occasional volume spikes tied to Solana ecosystem events.

  • Metaplex protocol continues operating and generating revenue
  • Buyback mechanism remains active and provides ~$0.020 price floor
  • No major distribution from top treasury/team wallets
  • Solana ecosystem remains active with stable transaction volumes
  • No adverse regulatory or technical events affecting the protocol

Bear Case

Medium probability

The $90.5M volume spike was a one-time whale event (or wash trading) with no follow-through. Price retraces to the prior consolidation range (~$0.020–$0.021). The 30-day holder decline continues or accelerates, signaling sustained disengagement. Treasury/team wallets begin distributing, overwhelming the buyback mechanism.

  • Continuation of 30-day holder decline trend with no reversal catalyst
  • Anomalous volume spike fails to attract follow-on organic buying
  • Whale or treasury wallet distribution overwhelming buyback demand
  • Broader Solana ecosystem slowdown reducing protocol revenue and buybacks
  • Mutable token metadata creating uncertainty about long-term tokenomics

Analysis details

Generated

Jul 3, 03:18 AM UTC

Saved observation

2026-07-03 03:18 UTC

Model confidence

Low

Data sources

  • On-chain token metadata (mint, decimals, supply, update authority, mutability)
  • Real-time price feed (USD and WSOL pair on Raydium)
  • 24-hour OHLC hourly candle data (24 candles)
  • Trading analytics (buy/sell volume, unique wallets, price change intervals)
  • Holder metrics (total holders, acquisition method, distribution tiers, concentration)
  • Top 20 holder addresses with balances and percentages
  • 30-day daily historical holder series
  • Sniper analysis endpoint (returned no data)

Limitations

  • Only 24 hours of OHLC candle data available — insufficient for multi-day technical analysis or trend confirmation
  • Sniper analysis data unavailable — early buyer behavior and smart money signals cannot be quantified
  • Mint and freeze authority status not explicitly provided — rug risk from authorities is partially unknown
  • Top holder wallet classifications are inferred from balance patterns and cross-referencing the Raydium pair address — not confirmed via on-chain program data
  • The $90.5M candle [1] volume is anomalous and its source (organic, whale, wash trade) cannot be determined from available data
  • 30-day holder series shows only net daily changes — gross inflows and outflows are not separately available
  • No order book depth data available to precisely quantify slippage at various trade sizes

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does NOT constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry substantial risk of loss. Past performance and on-chain metrics do not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The token data analyzed was provided by a third party and may contain inaccuracies or adversarial content — all claims have been grounded in the raw data provided.

Frequently Asked Questions

How concentrated is Metaplex ownership?

Top-10 ownership concentration is not available in this report. The saved holder count is 8,947 addresses (2026-07-03 03:18 UTC). A holder count alone does not establish how supply is distributed.

Are large holders selling Metaplex?

This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. A complete buy/sell volume observation is not available in the saved inputs. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.

Is Metaplex liquidity falling?

As of 2026-07-03 03:18 UTC, reported liquidity was $4,067,296.35. At least two timestamped liquidity observations are needed to establish a change; this report does not have them.

What is the short-term price outlook for Metaplex (MPLX)?

The token just printed a massive bullish candle (candle [1]) with a close at $0.02410, up from ~$0.02088 open — a ~15.4% move in a single hour on $90.5M volume. This is a significant breakout above the prior 23-hour consolidation range of ~$0.02037–$0.02115. Short-term momentum is strongly bullish, but the extreme volume spike raises the risk of a mean-reversion pullback. Immediate support is the breakout level near $0.02088; resistance is the current high of $0.02410. Short-term outlook is bullish (24–72 hours), with a target range of $0.02088 to $0.02650.

Is MPLX a safe investment on Solana?

The AI assessment rates overall risk as high with a risk score of 7.2/100. Suitable only for high-risk-tolerant investors with deep familiarity with Solana DeFi. The combination of extreme supply concentration, persistent holder decline, mutable token metadata, and anomalous volume spike makes this unsuitable for conservative or moderate-risk investors. Position sizing should be small relative to portfolio. Not suitable as a core holding.

What are the key risks of holding MPLX?

Extreme supply concentration: top 10 hold 64.12%, top 100 hold 95.05% — whale sell pressure could be devastating • Persistent 30-day holder decline of -66% (5,868 holders lost) with no sign of reversal • Anomalous $90.5M single-candle volume spike may not represent sustainable organic demand

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