LUSD

Liquity USD Price Today & AI Analysis

LUSDEthereumAnalysis as of Oct 29, 2026

Price

$1.16

+15.79% 24h

Contract

Live
0x5f98805a4e8be255a32880fdec7f6728c6568ba0

Holders

8.7K

Market cap

$29.84M

Liquidity

$639.63K

At a $100M market cap, $LUSD would be $3.89 (3.35x from today’s price)

Market cap calculator

Is LUSD a scam?

Unhosted check · Oct 29

No red flags

No scam signals in Unhosted’s checks.

Can you sell?

YesA test sell went through

Buy tax

0%

Unhosted’s automated check, re-run in the background: a warning signal, not a guarantee either way. Taxes come from a test trade through one pool and can change if the owner changes them.

Ask Unhosted AI about LUSD

3 free answers a day

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Liquity USD: holders, selling & liquidity

2026-10-29 21:15 UTC

Holder addresses

8,731

Top 10 supply share

61.82%

Reported liquidity

$646,645.00
How concentrated is Liquity USD ownership?
As of 2026-10-29 21:15 UTC, the provider reports that the top 10 holder addresses hold 61.82% of supply. It reports 8,731 holder addresses in total. Addresses are not people; pool, exchange, burn and related addresses have not been independently classified here.
Are large holders selling Liquity USD?
This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. As of 2026-10-29 21:15 UTC, the preceding 24-hour DEX volume was $2,675,883.00 in buys and $165,610.00 in sells. Those totals describe trading activity, not which holders traded. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.
Is Liquity USD liquidity falling?
Sampled USD liquidity changed -31.70%, from $929,836.00 (2026-10-28 22:00 UTC) to $635,032.00 (2026-10-29 21:00 UTC). This compares the earliest and latest available samples, which may cover less than 24 hours. USD changes can reflect asset prices as well as liquidity deposits or withdrawals.
Sources, observations & limitations

Source: Unhosted token aggregates, hourly liquidity samples and recent DEX swaps. Token aggregates retrieved 2026-10-29 21:15 UTC; the provider may lag the chain. Buy/sell totals cover the preceding 24 hours. Observations are saved with this report and do not update live. Holder addresses are not unique people. The provider’s top-10 share is not adjusted here for pools, exchanges, burn addresses or related wallets. Sniper classifications and wallet-level holder history are unavailable. Inspect token on the block explorer.

Saved liquidity observations

Observation (UTC)Liquidity (USD)
2026-10-28 22:00 UTC$929,836.00
2026-10-29 00:00 UTC$929,832.00
2026-10-29 01:00 UTC$925,132.00
2026-10-29 02:00 UTC$925,032.00
2026-10-29 04:00 UTC$925,042.00
2026-10-29 05:00 UTC$925,214.00
2026-10-29 06:00 UTC$925,099.00
2026-10-29 09:00 UTC$925,172.00
2026-10-29 14:00 UTC$930,787.00
2026-10-29 15:00 UTC$930,868.00
2026-10-29 16:00 UTC$930,968.00
2026-10-29 17:00 UTC$930,918.00
2026-10-29 18:00 UTC$930,964.00
2026-10-29 20:00 UTC$630,471.00
2026-10-29 21:00 UTC$635,032.00

Recent swap evidence

Up to 10 recent swaps returned by the provider within the preceding 24 hours. This is a sample, not all trades or a ranking of large holders.

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Movement since report

report from Oct 29, 2026, 09:15 PM UTC

Market Cap

$30.56M

24h Volume

$2.84M

Liquidity

$646.64K

FDV

—

Holders

8,731

24h

Loading trading activity…

AI Executive Summary

Risk

Medium

Sentiment

Neutral

Liquity USD (LUSD) is a USD-pegged stablecoin from Liquity V1, backed by ETH collateral with a 110% minimum collateral ratio and direct redemption for ETH. It is 66.8 months old and has 8,731 holders. Price recently printed $1.19, about 19% above peg, on thin Curve liquidity, which is a dislocation rather than normal stablecoin behavior. Unhosted's scam check returned NEUTRAL with a successful test sell.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Oct 29, 2026, 09:15 PM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Key points

  • Interest-free borrowing with a one-time fee against ETH collateral
  • Direct ETH redemption right that creates an arbitrage-based price floor
  • No reliance on centralized reserves for the peg

Liquity USD AI Price Analysis

Medium Confidence

Short-Term · 24h-7d

Bearish

LUSD is a redeemable, ETH-backed stablecoin whose daily closes sat near $1 for 13 straight days before a single-day jump to $1.19. A roughly 19% premium to a $1 redemption floor is hard to sustain, and the move happened on thin Curve liquidity (about $647K) with only 13 transactions, so mean reversion toward $1 looks more likely than continuation toward $1.22.

Medium-Term · 30d-90d

Bearish

The 7d, 30d and 90d changes all read about +18% because the entire gain comes from one candle, not a sustained trend. Redemption arbitrage lets holders swap LUSD for $1 of ETH, which pulls a premium back toward peg, so the medium-term bias is a return to the $1 area unless the spike reflects a structural change.

Bullish Factors

  • Price sits at 88% of the 91-day range ($0.9580 to $1.22), showing buyers cleared the $1.20 resistance zone at least briefly
  • The protocol's direct ETH redemption right and 110% minimum collateral ratio provide a structural floor near $1

Bearish Factors

  • The move is a one-candle jump from about $1 to $1.19 after 13 flat closes, which is atypical for a stablecoin and prone to reversal
  • Only $646,645 of liquidity in the pool means about $2.7M of buys moved price sharply and exits could be volatile
  • Market cap ($30.6M) and FDV ($27.5M) differ despite supply being fully circulating, a sign the price data may be inconsistent or distorted by thin trading

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

LUSD call history

Full track record →

Oct 29bearish
24hpending
7dpending
30dpending

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

Chain
Ethereum
Contract
0x5f98...8ba0
Total Supply
—
Decimals
—

Key Risks

  • Price is about 19% above peg on thin liquidity, so buyers risk losses if it reverts toward $1
  • Liquidity of about $647K means high slippage and exit risk on larger trades
  • Top-10 holders own 61.8% of supply and their identities are unclassified
  • Collateral risk: sharp ETH declines could stress the 110% minimum collateral ratio system

Trading Insight

neutral

Buy volume of $2.68M dwarfs sell volume of $166K, but this comes from only 7 buys by 5 buyers, so a few large trades dominate. For a stablecoin trading at a 19% premium, this looks like a liquidity-driven dislocation rather than broad organic demand.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d)

Bullish

Medium-Term (30d)

Neutral

The latest daily close of $1.19 breaks a 13-day flat range around $1, giving a short-term upward move. Over 91 days the price oscillated around the peg with a low of $0.9580, so the medium-term structure is a peg-bound sideways range with one outlier candle.

Momentum

Status

Overbought

A single-day gain of about 18% against a normal daily volatility of 2.0% is roughly nine standard deviations, which is extreme for a stablecoin and signals overextension relative to the peg.

Volume Analysis

Buy

94.2%

Sell

5.8%

Volume Trend

Increasing

All 13 transactions fall within the latest hour, so volume jumped from a quiet baseline to $2.84M total in a burst. Buy-side dollar volume dominates despite near-equal transaction counts.

Recent Price Action

Thirteen daily closes near $1 (one at $1.01), followed by a single vertical candle to $1.19.

Sudden breakaways from a pegged range on low liquidity often retrace as arbitrage activity restores the peg, unless the cause is a durable change in redemption or supply dynamics.

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$1

Major support

$0.9580

Immediate resistance

$1.2

Major resistance

$1.22

$1 is the peg and redemption anchor, so it is the key support. $0.9580 is the 91-day low, marking the deepest past depeg. $1.2 and $1.22 mark the recent high zone that price is now testing.

AI overall risk

Medium

Risk Score

42/100

Risk Breakdown

  • VolatilityHigh

    An ~18% single-day move against 2.0% typical daily volatility shows peg instability on this venue right now.

  • LiquidityHigh

    About $646,645 of liquidity is thin relative to $2.84M of 24h volume, so large trades move the price materially.

  • ConcentrationMedium

    Top 10 holders hold 61.8% of supply, but holder types are unclassified, so dump risk cannot be assessed precisely.

  • Smart ContractNot assessed

    Contract or authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations.

  • RegulatoryMedium

    Stablecoins face evolving regulation, though a decentralized, ETH-collateralized design differs from fiat-reserve issuers.

Key Risks

  • Price is about 19% above peg on thin liquidity, so buyers risk losses if it reverts toward $1
  • Liquidity of about $647K means high slippage and exit risk on larger trades
  • Top-10 holders own 61.8% of supply and their identities are unclassified
  • Collateral risk: sharp ETH declines could stress the 110% minimum collateral ratio system

Mitigating Factors

  • Direct ETH redemption creates an arbitrage floor and ceiling pressure around $1
  • Long track record of 66.8 months and 8,731 holders

Investor Suitability

Suited to experienced DeFi users who understand redemption mechanics and peg dynamics. Not suitable for anyone treating it as risk-free cash at a premium price.

LUSD's design anchors it to $1, so the current $1.19 print looks more like a short-lived dislocation than a lasting repricing. The thesis favors peg reversion, with the fundamentals of the protocol intact but no evidence in the data of a reason for a durable premium.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

A real demand or supply shift sustains a premium and price holds above $1.20 toward $1.22.

  • Persistent buy demand exceeding arbitrage supply
  • Constrained liquidity keeping the premium from being arbitraged away

Base Case

Price retraces toward the $1 peg zone over days to weeks as arbitrage activity normalizes the thin-pool spike.

  • Redemption mechanism continues to function normally
  • No major change in Liquity V1 protocol demand or collateral conditions

Bear Case

Medium probability

Arbitrage and sellers push price back to $1, or a stress event drives it toward the $0.9580 low.

  • Redemption and mint arbitrage closing the premium
  • ETH sell-off or liquidity withdrawal widening depegs

Analysis Details

Generated

Oct 29, 2026, 09:15 PM UTC

Saved observation

2026-10-29 21:15 UTC

Model Confidence

Medium

Data Snapshot

Price

$1.19029675985

Market Cap

$30.56M

24h Volume

$2.84M

Holders

8,731

Liquidity

$646,645.00

Data Sources

Unhosted DEX market data (price, volume, liquidity)Daily OHLC price historyAggregate holder count and top-10 concentrationUnhosted automated risk check and test trade

Limitations

  • Holder-growth and whale-transaction data were unavailable
  • The contract check is Unhosted's automated assessment — a warning signal, not a guarantee
  • Price and volume come from a single thin Curve pool and may not reflect broader market pricing
  • Market cap and FDV figures are internally inconsistent
  • The cause of the price spike cannot be determined from the data

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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