SOGNI

Sogni AI Price Prediction 2026

SOGNI
Base·AI Analysis
Analysis as of Aug 11, 2026

$0.000594

-0.07%24h
LiveContract:0xe014d2a4da6e450f21b5050120d291e63c8940fdChain:BaseHolders:34.6KMarket cap:$5.94MLiquidity:$119.17K

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Ask Unhosted AI about SOGNI

What's Twitter saying?

Sentiment, KOL mentions, top tweets

Whale activity

Who is accumulating or distributing

What are the risks?

Red flags, security, concentration

Should I buy?

Bull case, bear case, entry / exit

Movement since reportreport from Aug 11, 2026, 04:30 PM UTC
Market Cap

$1.97M

24h Volume

$127.32K

Liquidity

$238.34K

FDV

—

Holders

34.6K

Security

—

24H0 buys
0 sells0 traders

Holder Insights

Live

Total holders

—

24h change

0

Top 10 hold

—

Top acquisition

—

—

AI Executive Summary

Sogni AI (SOGNI) is a 13.5-month-old utility token on Base (chain 0x2105) powering a decentralized creative platform that combines AI generation, distributed compute sharing, and a creator community under the 'Supernet' brand. At a current price of $0.000592 and market cap of ~$1.97M, the token sits near the bottom of its 90-day range following a 46.1% decline over that period. While the project has genuine social infrastructure (Twitter, Telegram, Discord, Website) and 34,600 holders, the technical trend is firmly bearish and three top individual whale wallets received insider allocations at launch. The security score of 66/100 and verified contract provide a baseline of legitimacy, but the sustained price erosion and holder attrition demand caution.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Aug 11, 2026, 04:30 PM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Risk: high
Sentiment: bearish
Decentralized compute-sharing model within a creative AI platform — users earn SOGNI by contributing GPU/CPU resources, creating a supply-side utility flywheel distinct from pure speculative AI tokens
Relatively low dumpable supply concentration (18.5%) despite 92% top-10 holder share, because the majority of concentrated holdings are locked in protocol/contract addresses
Multi-category positioning across Platform Utility, AI, and DePIN gives SOGNI exposure to three high-narrative crypto sectors simultaneously

Sogni AI Price Prediction

Medium Confidence
Short-Term24h-7d
Bearish

SOGNI is in a clear short-term downtrend, declining 9.5% over 7 days and sitting at just 3% of its 90-day range — near the absolute bottom of its recent trading history. Sell pressure marginally exceeds buy pressure at 51.5% vs 48.5%, and the 4-hour price has fallen 6.7%, confirming continued distribution. Without a catalyst to reverse the trend, the path of least resistance remains downward toward the immediate support at $0.0005786.

Medium-Term30d-90d
Bearish

The 30-day decline of 22.1% and 90-day decline of 46.1% establish a persistent medium-term downtrend with no sign of structural reversal. The price has compressed toward the lower bound of its 90-day range ($0.0005786–$0.001108), and the major resistance at $0.001108 is roughly 87% above current price — a recovery requiring significant fundamental catalysts. Holder count has declined over both 7-day (-12) and 30-day (-17) windows, reinforcing the bearish medium-term picture.

Bullish Factors
  • +Price is at 3% of its 90-day range ($0.0005786–$0.001108), meaning it is near a historically significant low where mean-reversion buying could emerge
  • +Smart money traders are profitable on this token — wallet 0xeb674e achieved +$1,927 (+33%) and 0x18f9ba achieved +$1,921 (+24%), indicating the token has rewarded skilled traders and retains speculative interest
  • +Dumpable supply is only 18.5% of total supply, as the majority of top-10 holdings are in protocol/contract addresses that cannot sell into the market, limiting structural sell pressure from large holders
  • +34,600 total holders with 12,060 acquired via swap signals genuine market-driven adoption beyond airdrop recipients
Bearish Factors
  • -90-day price decline of 46.1% and 30-day decline of 22.1% confirm a sustained, multi-timeframe downtrend with no technical reversal signal
  • -Holder count has declined over both the 7-day (-12) and 30-day (-17) windows, indicating net holder attrition rather than accumulation
  • -The three largest individual whale wallets (7.32%, 3.33%, 2.27% of supply) all became active on June 30, 2025 — just days after the June 26 contract creation — and acquired their positions via transfer/airdrop rather than market buys, suggesting insider allocations that represent latent sell pressure
  • -Fully diluted valuation of ~$5.92M versus market cap of ~$1.97M implies significant token overhang, as circulating supply equals total supply yet the FDV gap suggests vesting or locked tokens not yet reflected in market cap

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

SOGNI call history

Full track record →
Aug 11bearish
24hpending
7dpending
30dpending

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

ChainBase
Contract0xe014...40fd
Total Supply—
Decimals—

Key Risks

•Insider allocation risk: Three individual whale wallets holding a combined 13.37% of supply received their positions via transfer/airdrop within days of launch (first active June 30, 2025) with no DEX swap history — these wallets could sell into the market at any time with no prior on-chain warning signal
•Sustained downtrend with no reversal signal: The 46.1% 90-day decline, 22.1% 30-day decline, and price at 3% of the 90-day range indicate the market has been consistently de-rating this token; continued decline toward and potentially below the $0.0005786 support is the path of least resistance
•Liquidity-constrained exit: With only $238,338 in the liquidity pool, any coordinated selling from the 18.5% dumpable supply would cause severe price impact, potentially trapping smaller holders who entered at higher prices

Trading Insight

bearish

Market sentiment is mildly bearish, with sell pressure at 51.5% versus buy pressure at 48.5% and a net sell volume imbalance of approximately $3,900 over 24 hours. Transaction counts are relatively balanced (917 buys vs 812 sells), but the higher sell volume per transaction indicates larger average sell sizes, consistent with distribution behavior. The 4-hour window shows 216 buys versus 193 sells with 63 unique buyers and 70 unique sellers, suggesting a slightly broader seller base than buyer base in recent hours.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d):
Bearish
Medium-Term (30d):
Bearish

SOGNI is in a confirmed downtrend across all measured timeframes: -9.5% over 7 days, -22.1% over 30 days, and -46.1% over 90 days. The recent daily close sequence (from $0.0006957 down to $0.0005920 over 14 sessions) shows a staircase decline with no meaningful recovery candles, and the current price at 3% of the 90-day range ($0.0005786–$0.001108) places it near the absolute low of the period. Daily volatility of 1.8% (standard deviation of daily returns) is moderate, meaning the decline has been steady rather than a sharp crash — a pattern consistent with sustained distribution.

Momentum

Status:
Oversold

With price at 3% of its 90-day range and a 14-session consecutive decline in daily closes, momentum indicators would be deeply oversold by any standard measure. While oversold conditions can precede short-term bounces, in a sustained downtrend they often remain oversold for extended periods. The lack of any bullish reversal candle in the recent close sequence (oldest $0.0006957 to newest $0.0005920 with no recovery above $0.0006587) confirms momentum has not yet turned.

Volume Analysis

Buy 48.5%Sell 51.5%

Volume Trend: Stable

24-hour volume of ~$127,300 is moderate relative to the $238,338 liquidity pool. The volume composition — more buy transactions but higher average sell size — is consistent with retail accumulation attempts being overwhelmed by deliberate distribution from larger holders. No volume spike or capitulation event is visible in the data, suggesting the downtrend is grinding rather than accelerating.

Recent Price Action

14-session staircase decline from $0.0006957 to $0.0005920, with a brief consolidation around $0.0006400–$0.0006520 before breaking lower to the current level. The most recent close at $0.0005920 is the lowest in the 14-session window.

A staircase decline with no meaningful recovery sessions indicates persistent selling pressure without buyer conviction. The brief consolidation around $0.0006400–$0.0006520 that failed to hold is now acting as resistance (aligning with the computed immediate resistance at $0.0006528), and the break below it increases the probability of a test of the major support at $0.0005786.

Key Price Levels

Support
Immediate$0.0005786
Major$0.0005786
Resistance
Immediate$0.0006528
Major$0.001108

The immediate and major support levels converge at $0.0005786 — the 90-day range low — making this a critical floor; a break below it would signal a new multi-month low with no nearby OHLC-derived support beneath it. The immediate resistance at $0.0006528 aligns with the recent failed consolidation zone and represents the first meaningful hurdle for any recovery. The major resistance at $0.001108 is the 90-day range high, approximately 87% above current price, and would require a fundamental re-rating of the project to reach.

Holder Metrics

Total Holders34,600
24h Change+8
Growth Rate+0.023%

While the 24-hour holder change of +8 (0.023%) is technically positive, it is noise against the 7-day (-12) and 30-day (-17) trajectories that define the actual trend. The net holder count is declining slowly but consistently, suggesting that new entrants are not replacing those exiting — a sign of waning organic interest rather than growing community adoption.

Holder Distribution

Top 10 Holders92%
Top 100 Holders100%
Retail Holders0.0%
Concentration Risk:
Medium

On the surface, 92% of supply in the top 10 holders appears critically concentrated. However, classified analysis reveals that positions 1 (66.68%), 3 (3.85%), 5 (2.33%), and 7 (2.01%) are protocol/contract addresses — structurally non-sellable. The genuine dumpable supply from individual whales and potential insiders is 18.5%, which is elevated but not extreme for a utility token of this age. Concentration risk is rated medium rather than critical because the dominant supply holder is a protocol contract, not a single actor with sell intent.

Whale Activity

Sentiment:
Holding

The largest on-chain swaps in the recent notable trades data are all sub-$250 (largest: $237 buy by 0xd7fda1, who also executed a $193 sell in the same window). The three largest individual whale wallets (7.32%, 3.33%, 2.27%) show no DEX swap activity on this token — their positions were acquired via transfer/airdrop at or near launch and remain static.

  • •0xd7fda1 executed both a $237 buy and a $193 sell in the recent window — suggesting short-term trading rather than directional conviction
  • •0x5e9122 executed a $141 sell followed by a $123 buy — similarly oscillating, with no clear accumulation or distribution signal

Whale wallets with insider-acquired positions (7.32%, 3.33%, 2.27%) are dormant on DEX activity, meaning they are neither accumulating nor distributing through the open market currently. The largest visible on-chain trades are retail-sized, confirming that no significant whale is actively moving the market in either direction at this time.

Smart Money Indicators

Confidence:
Medium
Profit-Taking Risk:
Medium

Six identified smart money wallets are all profitable on SOGNI: 0xeb674e leads with +$1,927 (+33%) over 125 trades, followed by 0x18f9ba at +$1,921 (+24%) over 139 trades, and 0x88a692 at +$1,698 (+25%) over 131 trades. Notably, 0x023ec0 achieved +$847 at +255% return over just 6 trades — the highest percentage return, suggesting a well-timed entry and exit.

The presence of six profitable smart money traders with realized gains ranging from +8% to +255% indicates the token has rewarded active traders, but the modest absolute dollar amounts (all under $2,000 realized) suggest these are small-scale operators rather than institutional smart money. The high trade counts for top performers (165, 139, 131, 125 trades) indicate these are active market-makers or scalpers rather than conviction holders, which limits the signal value for medium-term directional calls.

Liquidity Analysis

Total Liquidity$238,338
Depth:
Shallow
Slippage Risk:
Medium

The $238,338 liquidity pool on Aerodrome is shallow for a token with a $1.97M market cap — a liquidity-to-market-cap ratio of approximately 12%. This means that even moderately sized trades (a few thousand dollars) will experience meaningful slippage, and a coordinated sell from any of the 18.5% dumpable supply would severely impact price. The pool is sufficient for the current retail-sized trade flow (sub-$250 largest trades) but would be inadequate if any whale decided to exit via the DEX.

Overall Risk:
High
68/100

Risk Breakdown

Volatility
Medium

Daily volatility of 1.8% (standard deviation of daily returns) is moderate for a micro-cap token. The 90-day decline of 46.1% reflects directional risk rather than erratic volatility — the token trends steadily rather than spiking unpredictably, which is somewhat more manageable but still represents significant capital risk over holding periods.

Liquidity
Medium

The $238,338 liquidity pool on Aerodrome is shallow relative to the $1.97M market cap (12% ratio). Retail-sized trades under $500 can execute with acceptable slippage, but any position above a few thousand dollars will face meaningful price impact. A whale exit from the 18.5% dumpable supply would be severely liquidity-constrained.

Concentration
Medium

Despite 92% of supply in the top 10 holders, the genuine dumpable supply is 18.5% — held by individual whales, three of whom received insider allocations at launch. This is elevated but not extreme. The dominant holder (66.68%) is a protocol contract and poses no sell risk. The insider-allocated wallets (13.37% combined) are the primary concentration concern.

Smart Contract
Medium

The verified contract and 13.5-month incident-free history are positive indicators. The 66/100 security score leaves room for unidentified vulnerabilities. Without a full audit report in the available data, residual smart contract risk cannot be fully dismissed.

Regulatory
Medium

As a utility token operating in the AI and DePIN space on Base (an Ethereum L2), SOGNI faces the same regulatory uncertainty as the broader crypto market. The compute-sharing and token-earning model could attract scrutiny as a securities offering in certain jurisdictions, particularly if the platform grows significantly.

Key Risks

  • •Insider allocation risk: Three individual whale wallets holding a combined 13.37% of supply received their positions via transfer/airdrop within days of launch (first active June 30, 2025) with no DEX swap history — these wallets could sell into the market at any time with no prior on-chain warning signal
  • •Sustained downtrend with no reversal signal: The 46.1% 90-day decline, 22.1% 30-day decline, and price at 3% of the 90-day range indicate the market has been consistently de-rating this token; continued decline toward and potentially below the $0.0005786 support is the path of least resistance
  • •Liquidity-constrained exit: With only $238,338 in the liquidity pool, any coordinated selling from the 18.5% dumpable supply would cause severe price impact, potentially trapping smaller holders who entered at higher prices

Mitigating Factors

  • •The dominant supply holder (66.68%) is a protocol/contract address that cannot sell, meaning the structural sell pressure is far lower than the raw concentration figures suggest
  • •13.5 months of operational history without a rug or exploit, combined with a verified contract and active multi-channel social presence, indicates a project with genuine longevity intent rather than a short-term exit scheme

Investor Suitability

SOGNI may be suitable for high-risk-tolerance investors with a genuine interest in the AI/DePIN narrative who can afford to lose their entire position. Given the sustained downtrend, shallow liquidity, and insider allocation concerns, it is not appropriate for risk-averse investors or those seeking near-term capital preservation. Any position sizing should account for the difficulty of exiting quickly without significant slippage.

SOGNI presents a genuine utility narrative at the intersection of AI, DePIN, and creative platforms, but the token is currently in a sustained multi-timeframe downtrend with the price near 90-day lows. The investment thesis hinges on whether the Sogni Supernet can achieve meaningful platform adoption that drives organic token demand — a catalyst not yet visible in the on-chain price or holder data.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case
Low

The Sogni Supernet achieves a meaningful inflection in compute-sharing activity and AI creative tool usage, driving organic SOGNI demand from platform participants. A broader AI/DePIN sector rally amplifies the narrative, attracting new capital. Price recovers from the $0.0005786 support, reclaims the $0.0006528 immediate resistance, and targets the $0.001108 major resistance — a potential 87% gain from current levels.

  • +Verifiable on-chain growth in Supernet compute activity and active platform users generating genuine token demand
  • +Sector-wide AI/DePIN narrative rotation bringing new capital into the category
Base Case

SOGNI continues to grind lower or consolidate near the $0.0005786–$0.0006528 range, with no major catalyst in either direction. The platform maintains its community and social presence but does not achieve the adoption inflection needed to reverse the price trend. Slow holder attrition continues, and the token remains a speculative micro-cap with genuine but unproven utility.

  • •No major insider selling event occurs in the near term, preventing a sharp downside break
  • •The Sogni platform continues operating and maintaining its community without a significant product milestone that would re-rate the token
Bear Case
Medium

The sustained downtrend continues as the platform fails to demonstrate meaningful adoption metrics, insider-allocated whale wallets begin distributing their positions into any price strength, and the $0.0005786 support breaks — establishing a new multi-month low with no OHLC-derived support beneath it. Holder attrition accelerates as airdrop recipients exit their positions.

  • -Insider whale wallets (13.37% combined, acquired via transfer at launch) begin selling into the shallow $238K liquidity pool
  • -Continued holder count decline and absence of new organic demand as the platform fails to scale its compute-sharing network

Analysis Details

GeneratedAug 11, 2026, 04:30 PM UTC
Data FreshnessReal-time on-chain data with 90-day historical OHLC
Model Confidence
Medium

Data Snapshot

Price$0.000592045459927011
Market Cap$1.97M
24h Volume$127.3K
Holders34,600
Liquidity$238.3K

Data Sources

On-chain transaction data (Aerodrome DEX, Base chain)
Holder distribution analytics (Moralis holder tier classification)
90-day daily OHLC price history with computed swing high/low key levels
Smart contract security assessment (66/100 score, verified contract)
Whale wallet forensics (DEX swap history lookup, first-active date)
Smart money realized PnL data (six identified profitable traders)
Notable recent on-chain swap data

Limitations

  • •The market cap vs. FDV discrepancy ($1.97M vs. $5.92M) with identical circulating and total supply figures could not be fully resolved from available data — a vesting schedule or data artifact may be present
  • •Smart money realized PnL figures are modest in absolute terms (all under $2,000), limiting the signal strength for institutional-level directional inference
  • •No full smart contract audit report was available — the 66/100 security score reflects automated analysis and may not capture all contract-level risks

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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