Umbra Prediction
PRVT6TB7uss3FrUd2D9xs2zqDBsa3GbMJMwCQsgmeta
$0.565876
FDV $16,127,404
PRVT6TB7uss3FrUd2D9xs2zqDBsa3GbMJMwCQsgmetaChain:SolanaHolders:6,244Market cap:$16,127,404$16,127,404
$523,586
6,244
0
Very High
AI Executive Summary
Umbra (UMBRA) is a Solana-based privacy protocol enabling private swaps, transfers, and dApp integrations. With a current price of $0.5659 and a 24h gain of ~46.9%, the token is experiencing a sharp short-term price surge. Total supply is ~28.5M tokens with a fully diluted valuation of ~$16.1M. The token trades on Meteora Dynamic AMM v2 with $523.59K in liquidity. Despite the price spike, holder count has been declining over the past 30 days (-335, -5.4%), and supply concentration is extremely high — the top holder alone controls 47.37% of supply.
Price Prediction
Short term
Price has surged ~46.9% in 24h from ~$0.385 to $0.566, with the last few candles showing strong upward momentum. The immediate trend is bullish but overextended. A short-term pullback toward the $0.487–$0.510 zone is plausible before any continuation. Resistance sits near the recent high of $0.583.
Resistance: $0.583 (candle [1] open / candle [2] high), $0.620 (psychological extension), $0.421 (prior range high from candle [19])
Medium term
The 30-day holder decline (-335 holders, -5.4%) and extreme supply concentration (top holder at 47.37%) create structural headwinds. If the price spike attracts new holders and the project delivers on its privacy protocol roadmap, medium-term consolidation above $0.40 is possible. However, without a reversal in holder trends, sustained upside is uncertain.
Catalysts
- Protocol milestone announcements or dApp integrations
- Broader Solana ecosystem rally
- Reversal of 30-day holder decline
- Increased DEX liquidity depth
Bullish factors
- 46.9% 24h price gain with 62.6% buy pressure
- No snipers detected — clean launch
- Verified contract, not flagged as spam
- Privacy narrative on Solana is a differentiated use case
- 437 buys vs 501 sells but buy volume ($88.16K) significantly exceeds sell volume ($52.63K)
Bearish factors
- Top holder controls 47.37% of supply — extreme concentration risk
- 30-day holder count declined by 335 (-5.4%)
- Mutable metadata with non-renounced update authority
- Total liquidity of $523.59K is shallow relative to $16.1M FDV
- Sharp spike may attract profit-taking from existing holders
Deep Analysis
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Token Info
Key Risks
Smart Money & Sniper Analysis
Zero snipers were detected in the first 1,000 blocks of trading, which is a strongly positive signal for launch fairness. There is no sniper concentration risk, no early-buyer dump pressure from bot activity, and no sniper PnL overhang to assess. This is one of the cleanest launch profiles observable from the data.
AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.
Sniper details
0% — no snipers detected in the first 1,000 blocks
Positive — the absence of snipers suggests early buyers entered through normal market activity rather than front-running bots. The majority of holders (3,549 via swap, 2,346 via transfer) acquired tokens through legitimate means.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the price prediction for Umbra (UMBRA)?
Price has surged ~46.9% in 24h from ~$0.385 to $0.566, with the last few candles showing strong upward momentum. The immediate trend is bullish but overextended. A short-term pullback toward the $0.487–$0.510 zone is plausible before any continuation. Resistance sits near the recent high of $0.583. Short-term outlook is bullish (24–72 hours), with a target range of $0.487 to $0.620.
Is UMBRA a safe investment on Solana?
Overall risk is rated very_high with a risk score of 8.2/100. Suitable only for high-risk-tolerant, experienced DeFi traders who understand the risks of extreme supply concentration, shallow liquidity, and mutable token authorities. Not suitable for conservative or retail investors. Position sizing should be minimal given the 47.37% single-wallet concentration risk.
How are UMBRA holders trending?
Umbra currently has 6,244 holders and is declining (24h: 23, 7d: -19, 30d: -335). Holder count peaked above 6,570 approximately 30 days ago and has been in a steady decline, losing 335 holders (-5.4%) over the period. The decline was most acute in early-to-mid May (e.g., -50 on May 11, -32 on May 10, -27 on May 12). The most recent 24h shows +23 new holders, which may reflect the price spike attracting new entrants. However, the 7-day figure remains negative (-19), and the trend is not yet confirmed as reversing. Holder distribution shows 82 whales, 64 sharks, 408 dolphins, 506 fish, and 593 octopus — a relatively broad base below the whale tier, but the top-10 concentration of 67.04% is a major concern.
What does sniper activity look like for UMBRA?
Snipers hold roughly 0.00% of supply with PnL state "unknown" and sell-through rate "unknown". Profit-taking risk: medium.
What are the key risks of holding UMBRA?
Single wallet (3kX3E...) holds 47.37% of total supply — extreme dump risk • Mutable metadata with active update authority not renounced • 30-day holder decline of 335 wallets (-5.4%) despite price appreciation
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