JOLLY

JOLLY Price Today & AI Analysis

JOLLYSolanaAnalysis as of Sep 24, 2026

Price

$0.000125

+165.47% 24h

Contract

Live
AouqdqhCsKb1x5Ngw5PktSonaWnxb9UiBF3QzBdvtMH

Chain

Solana

Holders

1,399

Market cap

$124,833

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JOLLY: holders, selling & liquidity

2026-09-24 19:15 UTC

Holder addresses

1,399

Top 10 supply share

31.35%

Reported liquidity

$17,635.00
How concentrated is JOLLY ownership?
As of 2026-09-24 19:15 UTC, the provider reports that the top 10 holder addresses hold 31.35% of supply. It reports 1,399 holder addresses in total. Addresses are not people; pool, exchange, burn and related addresses have not been independently classified here.
Are large holders selling JOLLY?
This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. As of 2026-09-24 19:15 UTC, the preceding 24-hour DEX volume was $839,777.00 in buys and $814,868.00 in sells. Those totals describe trading activity, not which holders traded. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.
Is JOLLY liquidity falling?
Sampled USD liquidity changed +666.42%, from $2,648.44 (2026-09-23 23:00 UTC) to $20,298.27 (2026-09-24 19:00 UTC). This compares the earliest and latest available samples, which may cover less than 24 hours. USD changes can reflect asset prices as well as liquidity deposits or withdrawals.
Sources, observations & limitations

Source: Codex token aggregates, hourly liquidity samples and recent DEX swaps. Token aggregates retrieved 2026-09-24 19:15 UTC; the provider may lag the chain. Buy/sell totals cover the preceding 24 hours. Observations are saved with this report and do not update live. Holder addresses are not unique people. The provider’s top-10 share is not adjusted here for pools, exchanges, burn addresses or related wallets. Sniper classifications and wallet-level holder history are unavailable. Inspect token on the block explorer.

Saved liquidity observations

Observation (UTC)Liquidity (USD)
2026-09-23 23:00 UTC$2,648.44
2026-09-24 00:00 UTC$2,548.55
2026-09-24 01:00 UTC$2,454.49
2026-09-24 02:00 UTC$2,098.25
2026-09-24 03:00 UTC$2,243.97
2026-09-24 06:00 UTC$2,032.25
2026-09-24 14:00 UTC$2,264.00
2026-09-24 15:00 UTC$2,276.31
2026-09-24 18:00 UTC$27,246.64
2026-09-24 19:00 UTC$20,298.27

Recent swap evidence

Up to 10 recent swaps returned by the provider within the preceding 24 hours. This is a sample, not all trades or a ranking of large holders.

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Report snapshot

as of Sep 24, 07:16 PM UTC

FDV

$124,833

Liquidity

$17,635.00

Holders

1,399

Snipers

Not available

Risk

Very High
Loading price chart…

AI Executive Summary

Risk

Very High

Sentiment

Bearish

JOLLY is a micro-cap Solana token (FDV ~$124.8K) trading on a single Raydium CPMM pool with only $17.64K of liquidity. The token has experienced an extreme, likely unsustainable price spike (+165% in 24h) driven by a single explosive candle at 18:00-19:00 UTC where volume jumped from near-zero to $1.86M in one hour, followed by a sharp -18% pullback in the last 5 minutes. Prior to that spike, the token was in a multi-hour flatline/decay pattern with near-zero volume. Holder base is 1,399 addresses with top-10 wallets holding 31.35% of supply — a meaningful concentration for a token this small. No mint/freeze authority data, no sniper data, and no holder history are available, which significantly limits due-diligence confidence.

Key points

  • Extremely thin liquidity (~$17.6K) relative to a $124.8K FDV, meaning even modest trades cause large slippage
  • 24h price move of +165% concentrated almost entirely in a single 1-hour candle with $1.86M volume, following hours of flat, near-zero-volume trading
  • Top-10 holders control 31.35% of supply among 1,399 holder addresses, a moderate-to-high concentration for a nano-cap token
  • No mint/freeze authority, verification, or sniper data available — key rug-risk indicators are unknown, not confirmed safe

AI Price Analysis

bearish

Short term · 1-24 hours

bearish

The 5-minute reading already shows an 18.4% retracement from the recent high, and the parabolic 1-hour candle that produced the +165% daily move ($0.0000025 -> $0.00083 intrahour) looks like a classic pump that is now mean-reverting. Price closed the most recent hourly candle at $0.0001255, well off the $0.000255 intrahour high, suggesting sellers are already distributing into the spike.

Target low

$0.00007

Target high

$0.00016

Support

$0.0001147 (last candle low), $0.0000246 (pre-spike base)

Resistance

$0.000255 (candle 21 high), $0.000829 (candle 20 spike high)

Medium term · 3-14 days

bearish

Absent new catalysts, thin liquidity ($17.6K) and a supply structure where top-10 wallets hold 31.35% make continuation of the pump unlikely without fresh buy volume; historically such vertical single-candle moves on micro-liquidity pools tend to fully or mostly retrace as early buyers and top holders take profit.

Catalysts

  • Potential renewed social/marketing push referencing the pump could re-attract speculative volume
  • Any large holder liquidating a chunk of the 31.35% top-10 concentration would accelerate downside
  • Liquidity additions or removals from the single Raydium CPMM pool given its small $17.6K size

Bullish factors

  • 24h buy volume ($839.78K) slightly exceeds sell volume ($814.87K), a marginal net positive skew (50.8%/49.2%)
  • More unique buyers (4,253) than sellers (3,451) in the 24h window, indicating broader participation on the buy side
  • Token retains active trading interest with high wallet counts despite its small size

Bearish factors

  • Extremely shallow liquidity ($17.64K) versus daily volumes over $1.6M implies high slippage and fragile price support
  • The dominant price gain came from one anomalous hourly candle with a huge high-to-close wick-down, a common pump-and-dump signature
  • 5-minute price is already down 18.4%, showing immediate reversal pressure
  • Multiple prior hours had zero volume, indicating a largely inactive/illiquid market before the spike

Confidence: low. Only 21 hourly candles are available, liquidity is extremely shallow, sniper and holder-history data are absent, and authority/verification status is unknown. The single anomalous spike candle dominates all recent statistics, making trend extrapolation unreliable.

JOLLY call history

Full track record →

Sep 24bearish
24hpending
7dpending
30dpending

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

Chain
Solana
Contract
Aouqdq...vtMH
Total Supply
999,998,684.207484 JOLLY (~1 billion, 6 decimals)

Key Risks

  • Extremely thin liquidity ($17.64K) relative to trading volume and FDV creates high slippage and manipulation potential
  • Price action shows a classic pump signature (330x intrahour spike followed by immediate multi-candle reversal), suggesting elevated dump risk in the near term
  • Top-10 wallet concentration of 31.35% means a small number of holders could sharply move price if they exit
  • Unknown mint/freeze authority status leaves open the possibility of supply inflation or account freezing

Smart money & sniper coverage

Sniper classifications and wallet-level trading histories are not available in this report. Sniper concentration, profit-taking and dump risk have not been assessed.

Deep Analysis

Candles 1-19 show a steady decay from ~$0.0000063 down to ~$0.0000021-0.0000025, with several consecutive flat, zero-volume hours (candles 6-15, 18-19) indicating an essentially dead market. Candle 20 is a massive outlier: open $0.00000246, high $0.000829 (a ~330x intrahour spike), closing at $0.000195 with volume of $1.86M — a huge upper-wick candle typical of a pump followed by partial dump. Candle 21 continues lower, opening at $0.0001954, spiking to $0.000255, then closing at $0.0001255, another big wick-down pattern showing continued profit-taking.

Trend

Short-term

Downtrend

Medium-term

Sideways

Short-term price action (last 2 candles) shows a clear downtrend/retracement after the parabolic spike, with lower highs and lower closes (candle 20 close $0.000195 -> candle 21 close $0.0001255). Medium-term (across all 21 candles), price is still net higher than the pre-spike base (~$0.0000021-0.0000025) despite the pullback, but the multi-hour flatline before the spike qualifies the broader trend as sideways/dormant punctuated by one event.

Momentum & Volume

Momentum

Overbought

Volume trend

Decreasing

Buy

51%

Sell

49%

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$0.0001147 (candle 21 low)

Major support

$0.0000021-0.0000025 (pre-spike flatline base, candles 6-19)

Immediate resistance

$0.000255 (candle 21 high)

Major resistance

$0.000829 (candle 20 spike high)

The pre-spike flatline zone ($0.0000021-0.0000025) represents the last well-established equilibrium and would be the major downside level if the pump fully unwinds. The spike high of $0.000829 is a speculative extreme unlikely to be retested without a new catalyst. Immediate support/resistance are narrow and derived from only the last two candles, so they should be treated as tentative given the volatility.

Notable patterns

  • Vertical pump candle with extreme upper wick (candle 20: open $0.00000246 -> high $0.000829 -> close $0.000195), consistent with a pump-and-dump signature
  • Consecutive zero-volume flat candles (candles 6-15, 18-19) indicating a largely inactive/illiquid market prior to the spike
  • Lower high / lower close sequence in candles 20-21 suggesting momentum fading immediately after the spike
  • 5-minute -18.4% move signaling active profit-taking/reversal in progress

Liquidity

Liquidity

$17,635.00

Depth

Shallow

Slippage risk

High

Total liquidity of just $17.64K against a 24h traded volume exceeding $1.65M combined (buy+sell) and an FDV of $124.8K represents an extremely thin and fragile market. This mismatch between reported volume and pool depth implies high price impact per trade and suggests much of the volume flowed through the single anomalous hour (candle 20/21) rather than sustained organic trading. Buy vs sell volume is nearly balanced (50.8% buy / 49.2% sell), and unique buyers (4,253) modestly exceed unique sellers (3,451), a mildly positive but not decisive signal. Given the shallow liquidity, slippage risk for any meaningfully sized trade is high, and the pool could be easily moved by a single large holder given the 31.35% top-10 concentration.

Supply & authorities

Total supply

999,998,684.207484 JOLLY (~1 billion, 6 decimals)

FDV

$124,833

Mint authority

Not available

Freeze authority

Not available

Mint and freeze authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations. Metadata update authority does not establish either permission.

  • Volatilityhigh

    24h price swung +165%, with an intrahour move from ~$0.0000025 to $0.000829 (candle 20) followed by a sharp reversal; the most recent 5-minute reading is already -18.4%, confirming extreme volatility.

  • Liquidityhigh

    Only $17.64K total liquidity in a single Raydium CPMM pool against >$1.6M in 24h combined volume and $124.8K FDV — trades of even modest size will incur significant slippage and the pool could be drained or manipulated relatively cheaply.

  • Concentrationhigh

    Top-10 holders control 31.35% of the ~1 billion token supply among 1,399 total holder addresses; no top-100 or wallet-classification data is available to assess deeper distribution, so risk could be understated.

  • Sniper DumpNot assessed

    Sniper classifications and wallet trading histories are unavailable.

  • AuthorityNot assessed

    Contract or authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations.

Key risks

  • Extremely thin liquidity ($17.64K) relative to trading volume and FDV creates high slippage and manipulation potential
  • Price action shows a classic pump signature (330x intrahour spike followed by immediate multi-candle reversal), suggesting elevated dump risk in the near term
  • Top-10 wallet concentration of 31.35% means a small number of holders could sharply move price if they exit
  • Unknown mint/freeze authority status leaves open the possibility of supply inflation or account freezing
  • No sniper or holder-history data available, removing key tools for detecting coordinated pump-and-dump behavior
  • 5-minute price already down 18.4%, indicating the spike may be unwinding in real time

Mitigating factors

  • 24h buy volume ($839.78K) slightly exceeds sell volume, and unique buyers (4,253) outnumber unique sellers (3,451), showing some organic-looking two-sided participation
  • 1,399 distinct holder addresses suggest at least moderate distribution rather than a handful of wallets controlling everything, though this is not confirmed to be healthy distribution

Suitable for

Suitable only for highly risk-tolerant, speculative traders who fully understand and accept the possibility of total capital loss; not appropriate for risk-averse or long-term investors given the shallow liquidity, unknown authority status, absence of sniper/holder-history coverage, and clear pump-and-dump price signature.

JOLLY is a nano-cap Solana token that just experienced an extreme, likely unsustainable price spike on very thin liquidity. The available data (shallow $17.64K pool, unknown mint/freeze authority status, no sniper coverage, and a textbook pump-candle pattern already reversing) point toward a high-risk, speculative-only setup rather than a fundamentally-grounded investment case.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

If new buy-side momentum returns and the top-10 holders (31.35% of supply) hold rather than sell, price could stabilize at a level materially above the pre-spike base ($0.0000021-0.0000025), rewarding traders who catch continuation moves; broad participation (4,253 unique buyers in 24h) suggests some genuine retail interest beyond a single whale.

  • Sustained or renewed social/marketing attention driving fresh buy volume
  • Top-10 holders choosing to hold rather than realize profits into the spike
  • Liquidity providers adding depth to the Raydium pool, reducing slippage and supporting price

Base Case

Price continues to be highly volatile and range-bound between the post-spike lows and recent highs, gradually decaying toward pre-spike levels over the following days as speculative interest fades and volume normalizes, absent any new catalyst.

  • No major new catalyst emerges to sustain buying pressure
  • Liquidity remains thin, keeping volatility elevated in both directions
  • Top-10 holders behave opportunistically, taking partial profits rather than holding or dumping all at once

Bear Case

Medium probability

The spike fully or mostly unwinds back toward the pre-spike flatline levels (~$0.0000021-0.0000025) as early buyers and concentrated holders take profits into a thin, easily-moved pool, consistent with the -18.4% move already seen in the last 5 minutes and the sharp intrahour reversal in candle 20/21.

  • Shallow liquidity ($17.64K) amplifying downside price impact from even modest sell orders
  • Top-10 concentration (31.35%) enabling a few wallets to trigger a cascade of selling
  • Pump-and-dump candle signature (huge upper wick, immediate reversal) historically resolving bearish
  • Lack of any confirmed fundamentals, authority renouncement, or verified contract status to support valuation

Analysis details

Generated

Sep 24, 07:16 PM UTC

Saved observation

2026-09-24 19:15 UTC

Model confidence

Low

Data sources

  • On-chain token metadata (mint, supply, decimals)
  • Hourly OHLCV candle data (21 most recent hours) from a Raydium CPMM pool
  • Trading analytics aggregates (24h buy/sell volume, buyer/seller counts, price % change)
  • Codex holder aggregates (current snapshot: holder count, top-10 concentration)
  • Sniper analysis endpoint (returned no data for this token)

Limitations

  • No mint or freeze authority data was available; authority-based rug risk is unknown, not confirmed safe
  • No sniper/early-buyer data was available; sniper concentration and dump risk are unknown
  • No holder history (24h/7d/30d growth) was available; only a single current snapshot of holder count and top-10 concentration was provided
  • Top-100 holder concentration and wallet classifications were not available
  • Only 21 hourly candles were provided, limiting the ability to assess longer-term trend context beyond the immediate pump event
  • Verified contract, mutability, and master edition status were all marked unknown in source data

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

This analysis is generated from limited, potentially incomplete on-chain data and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency tokens, especially nano-cap and newly-active tokens with thin liquidity, carry substantial risk of loss, including total loss of capital. Conduct independent research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions

How concentrated is JOLLY ownership?

As of 2026-09-24 19:15 UTC, the provider reports that the top 10 holder addresses hold 31.35% of supply. It reports 1,399 holder addresses in total. Addresses are not people; pool, exchange, burn and related addresses have not been independently classified here.

Are large holders selling JOLLY?

This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. As of 2026-09-24 19:15 UTC, the preceding 24-hour DEX volume was $839,777.00 in buys and $814,868.00 in sells. Those totals describe trading activity, not which holders traded. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.

Is JOLLY liquidity falling?

Sampled USD liquidity changed +666.42%, from $2,648.44 (2026-09-23 23:00 UTC) to $20,298.27 (2026-09-24 19:00 UTC). This compares the earliest and latest available samples, which may cover less than 24 hours. USD changes can reflect asset prices as well as liquidity deposits or withdrawals.

What is the short-term price outlook for JOLLY (JOLLY)?

The 5-minute reading already shows an 18.4% retracement from the recent high, and the parabolic 1-hour candle that produced the +165% daily move ($0.0000025 -> $0.00083 intrahour) looks like a classic pump that is now mean-reverting. Price closed the most recent hourly candle at $0.0001255, well off the $0.000255 intrahour high, suggesting sellers are already distributing into the spike. Short-term outlook is bearish (1-24 hours), with a target range of $0.00007 to $0.00016.

Is JOLLY a safe investment on Solana?

The AI assessment rates overall risk as very high with a risk score of 88/100. Suitable only for highly risk-tolerant, speculative traders who fully understand and accept the possibility of total capital loss; not appropriate for risk-averse or long-term investors given the shallow liquidity, unknown authority status, absence of sniper/holder-history coverage, and clear pump-and-dump price signature.

What are the key risks of holding JOLLY?

Extremely thin liquidity ($17.64K) relative to trading volume and FDV creates high slippage and manipulation potential • Price action shows a classic pump signature (330x intrahour spike followed by immediate multi-candle reversal), suggesting elevated dump risk in the near term • Top-10 wallet concentration of 31.35% means a small number of holders could sharply move price if they exit

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