kBTC

Kraken Wrapped Bitcoin Price Today & AI Analysis

kBTC
Ethereum·AI Analysis
Analysis as of Sep 3, 2026

$80,692.13

+5.39%24h
LiveContract:0x73e0c0d45e048d25fc26fa3159b0aa04bfa4db98Chain:EthereumHolders:4.3KMarket cap:$520.33MLiquidity:$19.96M

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Movement since reportreport from Sep 3, 2026, 03:15 PM UTC
Market Cap

$520.33M

24h Volume

$10.47M

Liquidity

$19.96M

FDV

—

Holders

4.3K

24HLoading trading activity…

Holder Insights

Live

Total holders

—

AI Executive Summary

Kraken Wrapped Bitcoin (kBTC) is an ERC-20 token issued by Kraken exchange, designed to represent Bitcoin on Ethereum at a 1:1 ratio, with each token fully backed by BTC held in Kraken's custody and verifiable via on-chain proof-of-reserves. At $80,692 per token and a market cap of approximately $520M, kBTC is a mid-tier wrapped Bitcoin product competing in a space dominated by WBTC. The token has tracked Bitcoin's strong 90-day rally (+33.1%) faithfully, currently sitting at 99% of its 91-day range high with $20M in on-chain liquidity on Uniswap. With only 6,448 tokens in total supply and 4,290 holders, kBTC remains a relatively niche product whose value proposition rests entirely on Kraken's custodial integrity and the utility of bringing BTC yield and DeFi access to Kraken clients.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Sep 3, 2026, 03:15 PM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Risk: medium
Sentiment: bullish
Issued and custodied by Kraken, a regulated, long-standing centralized exchange — providing institutional-grade counterparty credibility relative to anonymous wrapped token issuers
Fully backed 1:1 by Bitcoin with on-chain proof-of-reserves verification, making price deviation from BTC spot structurally impossible under normal conditions
Cross-network compatibility as an ERC-20 enables kBTC holders to deploy Bitcoin value across Ethereum DeFi protocols without selling BTC

Kraken Wrapped Bitcoin AI Price Analysis

Medium Confidence
Short-Term24h-7d
Bullish

kBTC is trading at $80,692, sitting at 99% of its 91-day range high of $80,958.66, supported by a 30-day gain of 25.8% and a 90-day gain of 33.1%. The recent daily close sequence shows a clear staircase pattern from $74,474 to $80,692, with the last session reclaiming the $80,165 level decisively. Short-term momentum favors continuation toward the immediate resistance at $80,928.75, though the proximity to the 91-day high introduces elevated pullback risk.

Medium-Term30d-90d
Bullish

The 30-day (+25.8%) and 90-day (+33.1%) trends both confirm a sustained uptrend in the underlying Bitcoin price that kBTC tracks 1:1. A decisive break above the major resistance at $80,958.66 would open price discovery above the 91-day range, while a failure there could see a retest of the $77,000–$78,500 consolidation band. The structural trend remains bullish as long as Bitcoin's macro momentum holds.

Bullish Factors
  • +90-day price appreciation of +33.1% and 30-day gain of +25.8% confirm a durable uptrend in the underlying BTC price that kBTC mirrors exactly
  • +Current price of $80,692 sits at 99% of the 91-day range high, indicating strong buying conviction and a market unwilling to give back gains
  • +Daily close sequence over the last 14 sessions shows a clear higher-lows pattern (from $74,474 to $80,692), a textbook uptrend structure
  • +24-hour buy-to-sell ratio of 48 buys vs. 20 sells (2.4:1) and 40 unique buyers vs. 16 unique sellers indicates broad-based demand rather than a single large actor
Bearish Factors
  • -At 99% of the 91-day range, kBTC is trading near a historically significant resistance cluster ($80,928.75–$80,958.66), where prior swing highs have capped price
  • -The 7-day gain of only +0.7% signals that short-term momentum has stalled materially relative to the 30-day and 90-day trends, suggesting near-term exhaustion
  • -Daily volatility of 1.9% combined with a thin liquidity pool of ~$20M means a moderate-sized sell order could produce outsized slippage relative to the $520M market cap
  • -Top 10 holders control 96.4% of supply; per-wallet classification is unavailable, so the dumpable-supply fraction cannot be assessed — this is an unquantifiable concentration risk

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

kBTC call history

Full track record →
Sep 3bullish
24hpending
7dpending
30dpending

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

ChainEthereum
Contract0x73e0...db98
Total Supply—
Decimals—

Key Risks

•Custodial concentration risk: the entire value proposition of kBTC depends on Kraken's solvency and operational continuity — a Kraken insolvency or regulatory freeze would leave kBTC holders unable to redeem their underlying BTC
•On-chain liquidity of ~$20M is insufficient to absorb large forced liquidations without significant price impact, creating a potential de-peg risk during market stress events
•Top-10 holder concentration of 96.4% with no wallet-level classification means the dumpable supply fraction is unknown — a scenario where large holders are individual whales rather than protocol contracts would represent a severe undisclosed risk

Trading Insight

bullish

Trading sentiment is modestly bullish: buy pressure at 50.4% versus sell pressure at 49.6% is nearly balanced in volume terms, but the transaction count skew — 48 buys versus 20 sells in 24 hours — reveals that buyers are more numerous and more active. The accelerating buy-side transaction frequency in the 1-hour window (11 buys, 2 sells) suggests intraday momentum is building rather than fading.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d):
Bullish
Medium-Term (30d):
Bullish

Both short-term and medium-term trends are bullish: the 7-day change of +0.7% reflects a brief consolidation after a strong run, while the 30-day (+25.8%) and 90-day (+33.1%) figures confirm a sustained uptrend. The 14-session daily close sequence from $74,474 to $80,692 shows a clear pattern of higher lows and higher highs, with the most recent session reclaiming multi-week highs. The only caution is the 7-day deceleration, which suggests the market may be digesting gains before the next leg.

Momentum

Status:
Overbought

With price at 99% of the 91-day range and a 30-day gain of 25.8%, momentum indicators would be expected to read in overbought territory. The 7-day stall (+0.7%) is consistent with a market pausing at resistance after an extended run, and the daily volatility of 1.9% — while moderate — leaves room for a sharp mean-reversion move if the $80,928–$80,958 resistance zone rejects price.

Volume Analysis

Buy 50.4%Sell 49.6%

Volume Trend: Stable

24-hour volume of ~$10.47M against $20M liquidity represents a 52% daily turnover — healthy for a wrapped Bitcoin product. The buy/sell volume split is nearly even ($5.27M vs. $5.19M), but the transaction count imbalance (48 buys vs. 20 sells) indicates sell-side activity is concentrated in larger individual transactions. No multi-day volume history is available to assess whether volume is trending up or down.

Recent Price Action

The 14-session daily close sequence shows a recovery from $74,474, a consolidation band between $75,337 and $78,510 over several sessions, and then a breakout to $80,165 followed by a brief pullback to $77,898 and a strong recovery to the current $80,692. This is a classic breakout-retest-continuation pattern.

The successful retest of the $77,898–$78,226 zone after the initial breakout above $78,490 is technically constructive — it converted former resistance into support. A sustained hold above $78,490 (now immediate support) would confirm the breakout's validity and favor continuation toward the $80,928–$80,958 resistance cluster.

Key Price Levels

Support
Immediate$78,490.71
Major$58,252.77
Resistance
Immediate$80,928.75
Major$80,958.66

The immediate support at $78,490.71 corresponds to a prior swing high that was breached on the recent breakout, making it a key level to hold for bulls — a close below it would signal the breakout has failed. The major support at $58,252.77 represents the 91-day range low, a level that would only be tested in a severe Bitcoin drawdown. On the upside, the immediate resistance at $80,928.75 and major resistance at $80,958.66 form a tight cluster just $266 above current price — this is the critical near-term hurdle, and a confirmed close above $80,958.66 would represent a 91-day range breakout with no prior OHLC resistance overhead.

Overall Risk:
Medium
42/100

Risk Breakdown

Volatility
Medium

Daily return volatility of 1.9% is moderate for a Bitcoin-tracking asset, reflecting BTC's inherent price swings. The 90-day range of $58,252–$80,958 represents a 39% spread, meaning holders can experience significant drawdowns even in a broadly bullish cycle.

Liquidity
Medium

On-chain liquidity of ~$20M on Uniswap is meaningful but modest relative to the $520M market cap — a liquidity-to-market-cap ratio of approximately 3.8%. Large on-chain transactions would face material slippage; however, Kraken's native mint/redeem mechanism may provide an off-chain liquidity backstop for institutional-sized positions.

Concentration
High

The top 10 holders control 96.4% of the 6,448-token supply. Per-wallet classification is unavailable, so it cannot be determined whether these are Kraken custody contracts, exchange wallets, or individual holders with dumpable positions. This uncertainty itself constitutes a risk factor that cannot be mitigated without additional data.

Smart Contract
Medium

No contract-security data is available on this chain's data provider, so this is an uninformed default rather than an assessment. The token has operated for 16.7 months without a known exploit, which provides some empirical comfort, but the absence of audit data means smart contract risk cannot be formally rated.

Regulatory
Medium

As a product issued by Kraken — a regulated exchange subject to U.S. and international financial oversight — kBTC faces regulatory risk tied to Kraken's operating licenses and any future regulatory action targeting wrapped Bitcoin products or custodial stablecoins. Regulatory changes affecting Kraken's ability to operate could impair the redemption mechanism.

Key Risks

  • •Custodial concentration risk: the entire value proposition of kBTC depends on Kraken's solvency and operational continuity — a Kraken insolvency or regulatory freeze would leave kBTC holders unable to redeem their underlying BTC
  • •On-chain liquidity of ~$20M is insufficient to absorb large forced liquidations without significant price impact, creating a potential de-peg risk during market stress events
  • •Top-10 holder concentration of 96.4% with no wallet-level classification means the dumpable supply fraction is unknown — a scenario where large holders are individual whales rather than protocol contracts would represent a severe undisclosed risk

Mitigating Factors

  • •Kraken's 16.7-month operational history with kBTC without a known de-pegging event provides empirical evidence of the backing mechanism's reliability under normal market conditions
  • •On-chain proof-of-reserves verification allows any holder to independently confirm 1:1 BTC backing at any time, reducing information asymmetry about custodial integrity

Investor Suitability

kBTC is most suitable for existing Kraken clients seeking to deploy Bitcoin value in Ethereum DeFi without selling BTC, and for DeFi participants who prefer a custodially credible wrapped Bitcoin over alternatives. It is not suitable for investors seeking token-specific alpha, as its price is entirely determined by BTC spot price. Investors uncomfortable with custodial counterparty risk or the unquantified concentration risk should consider alternatives.

kBTC's investment thesis is inseparable from Bitcoin's: it is a 1:1 BTC-backed token whose price will track BTC exactly, with the additional variables of Kraken's custodial integrity and on-chain liquidity depth. The 90-day trend of +33.1% reflects Bitcoin's macro rally, and the current position at 99% of the 91-day range high suggests the market is testing a critical breakout level.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case
Medium

Bitcoin breaks above its current range high, kBTC follows proportionally, and growing DeFi adoption of Kraken's wrapped product drives supply expansion and liquidity deepening. A confirmed close above $80,958.66 would signal a 91-day range breakout with no prior OHLC resistance overhead, potentially accelerating the trend.

  • +Bitcoin macro breakout above the 91-day range high of $80,958.66, driven by institutional demand or macro risk-on conditions
  • +Increased Kraken client adoption of kBTC for DeFi yield strategies, expanding the circulating supply and on-chain liquidity depth
Base Case

kBTC consolidates in the $78,490–$80,958 range as Bitcoin digests its 30-day gains, with the 7-day stall (+0.7%) extending into a multi-week consolidation before the next directional move is determined by Bitcoin's macro catalysts.

  • •Bitcoin's 30-day momentum (+25.8%) moderates but does not reverse, keeping kBTC above the immediate support at $78,490.71
  • •Kraken's custodial operations continue without disruption, maintaining the 1:1 BTC backing and on-chain liquidity at current levels
Bear Case
Medium

Bitcoin fails to break the $80,928–$80,958 resistance cluster and enters a corrective phase, pulling kBTC back toward the $77,000–$78,500 consolidation zone or lower. A macro Bitcoin drawdown toward the 91-day range low of $58,252 would represent a ~28% decline from current levels.

  • -Rejection at the 91-day range resistance cluster ($80,928–$80,958) after a 33% run, triggering profit-taking and a reversion toward the $77,000–$78,500 support band
  • -Macro risk-off event or negative Bitcoin-specific news (regulatory action, ETF outflows) causing a broader BTC correction that kBTC mirrors exactly

Analysis Details

GeneratedSep 3, 2026, 03:15 PM UTC
Data FreshnessReal-time on-chain data
Model Confidence
Medium

Data Snapshot

Price$80692.1315036
Market Cap$520.33M
24h Volume$10.47M
Holders4,290
Liquidity$19.96M

Data Sources

Codex DEX market data (price, volume, liquidity)
Daily OHLC price history
Aggregate holder count and top-10 concentration

Limitations

  • •Holder growth history, size-tier distribution, and individual wallet classification data were unavailable for this chain — concentration risk cannot be fully assessed and holder trend analysis cannot be performed
  • •Whale transaction data and smart-money cohort data were unavailable — large holder behavior and profitable-trader positioning cannot be observed
  • •Contract-security audit data was unavailable on this chain's data provider — smart contract risk is rated at an uninformed default rather than a data-driven assessment
  • •As a 1:1 BTC-backed token, kBTC's price is entirely determined by Bitcoin spot price — token-specific on-chain signals have limited predictive value compared to Bitcoin macro analysis

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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