msUSD

Metronome Synth USD Price Today & AI Analysis

msUSDBaseAnalysis as of Jul 30, 2026

Price

$0.8787

+0.08% 24h

Contract

Live
0x526728dbc96689597f85ae4cd716d4f7fccbae9d

Chain

Base

Holders

8.7K

Market cap

$45.38M

Liquidity

$777.95K

At a $100M market cap, $MSUSD would be $1.94 (2.20x from today’s price)

Market cap calculator

Is msUSD a scam?

Unhosted check · Oct 21

No red flags

No scam signals in Unhosted’s checks.

Unhosted’s automated check, re-run in the background: a warning signal, not a guarantee either way. Taxes come from a test trade through one pool and can change if the owner changes them.

Ask Unhosted AI about msUSD

3 free answers a day

What's Twitter saying?Whale activityWhat are the risks?Should I buy?

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Metronome Synth USD: holders, selling & liquidity

2026-07-30 06:03 UTC

Holder addresses

8,174

Top 10 supply share

Not available

Reported liquidity

Not available
How concentrated is Metronome Synth USD ownership?
Top-10 ownership concentration is not available in this report. The saved holder count is 8,174 addresses (2026-07-30 06:03 UTC). A holder count alone does not establish how supply is distributed.
Are large holders selling Metronome Synth USD?
This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. A complete buy/sell volume observation is not available in the saved inputs. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.
Is Metronome Synth USD liquidity falling?
Liquidity is not available in the saved inputs. At least two timestamped liquidity observations are needed to establish a change; this report does not have them.
Sources, observations & limitations

Source: inputs saved with the report generated 2026-07-30 06:03 UTC. Original provider retrieval times and historical samples were not recorded. Legacy zero placeholders are treated as unavailable. Holder addresses are not unique people. The provider’s top-10 share is not adjusted here for pools, exchanges, burn addresses or related wallets. Sniper classifications and wallet-level holder history are unavailable. Inspect token on the block explorer.

Recent swap evidence

Swap evidence is unavailable for this report.

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Movement since report

report from Jul 30, 2026, 06:03 AM UTC

Market Cap

$41.88M

24h Volume

$0.00

Liquidity

—

FDV

—

Holders

8,174

24h

Loading trading activity…

AI Executive Summary

Risk

Medium

Sentiment

Bearish

This is a 26.8-month-old utility/stablecoin-category token on Base (chain 0x2105) with a circulating supply of ~24.1 million tokens and a current market cap of approximately $41.9M. Despite its stablecoin classification, the token is trading at $0.9665 — roughly 3.4% below its implied $1.00 peg — and has sustained a negative price trend across all measured windows (7d, 30d, 90d). Holder count has contracted by 700 over the past 31 days, and while concentration in the top 10 is nominally high at 68%, the vast majority is held by protocol contracts and Aerodrome Finance liquidity positions rather than dumpable individual wallets. The token presents a nuanced risk profile: low dump risk from insiders, but meaningful peg-stability and adoption concerns.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Jul 30, 2026, 06:03 AM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Key points

  • Stablecoin-category token with persistent sub-peg trading (~3.4% below $1.00) across a 90-day window, distinguishing it from tokens with random volatility
  • Extremely low dumpable supply (1.9%) due to dominant protocol/exchange contract ownership, making it structurally resistant to insider-driven sell-offs
  • Active smart money presence with the top trader generating +$880,680 realized PnL across 3,033 trades, indicating a liquid and arbitrage-active market

Metronome Synth USD AI Price Analysis

Medium Confidence

Short-Term · 24h-7d

Bearish

The token has declined 1.6% over 7 days and currently sits at just 10% of its 90-day range ($0.9619–$1.01), indicating persistent selling pressure that has pushed price toward the lower bound. The most recent daily close of $0.9665 represents a notable step-down from the $0.98–$0.99 cluster seen earlier in the window, suggesting momentum remains to the downside. With immediate resistance at $0.9840 and no clear reversal signal, the short-term path of least resistance is lower.

Medium-Term · 30d-90d

Bearish

The 30-day and 90-day trends are both negative at -3.0% and -2.9% respectively, confirming a sustained drift away from the $1.00 peg rather than a temporary dip. The 31-day holder trajectory shows a net loss of 700 holders (8,775 → 8,075), reinforcing that participation is contracting, not expanding. Unless the token can reclaim $1.00 and stabilize above major resistance, the medium-term outlook remains bearish with continued peg erosion risk.

Bullish Factors

  • Dumpable supply is only 1.9% of total supply — the four individual whale wallets (positions 4, 7, 9, 10) collectively hold a negligible share, meaning coordinated sell-side pressure from insiders is structurally limited.
  • Smart money remains active and profitable: the top trader (0x3675ab…) has realized +$880,680 (+29%) across 3,033 trades, indicating sophisticated participants continue to find edge in this market.
  • Recent on-chain swap flow is net buy-skewed: the largest notable trade is a $186,311 buy by 0xaa34d2…, and four of the six most recent significant transactions are buys, suggesting some demand at current depressed levels.
  • 30-day holder growth of +99 holders (+1.2%) on a gross basis shows the token is still attracting new participants even as the net 31-day trajectory declines, pointing to ongoing organic discovery.

Bearish Factors

  • The token has lost 700 net holders over 31 days (8,775 → 8,075), a -8.0% contraction in the holder base that signals sustained user exit rather than a temporary pause.
  • Price sits at only 10% of its 90-day range ($0.9619–$1.01), meaning the token is trading near multi-month lows with the full weight of the range acting as overhead resistance.
  • The 90-day trend of -2.9% is meaningful for a stablecoin-classified token — persistent peg deviation of this magnitude raises questions about the mechanism's ability to maintain the $1.00 target.
  • Market cap ($41.88M) exceeds fully diluted valuation ($23.32M), an anomalous relationship suggesting either a data discrepancy or structural tokenomic irregularity that warrants caution.

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

Token Info

Chain
Base
Contract
0x5267...ae9d
Total Supply
—
Decimals
—

Key Risks

  • Peg failure risk: The token has traded below $1.00 for the entire 90-day observation window with a current deviation of 3.35%, suggesting the stabilization mechanism may be structurally impaired or the token is not designed to maintain a hard peg
  • Information opacity: No project description, no social links, and an anomalous market cap/FDV relationship create significant due diligence barriers — investors cannot independently verify the collateral backing, redemption mechanism, or issuer identity
  • Holder attrition: The net loss of 700 holders over 31 days (-8.0%) indicates the token is losing its user base at a meaningful rate, which could accelerate if peg deviation widens further

Trading Insight

bearish

Trading sentiment is mildly bearish, driven by the sustained peg deviation and declining holder base rather than acute panic selling. The recent notable trade flow is net positive by count (4 buys vs. 1 sell among the largest transactions), but the overall price trend and holder contraction indicate that buying interest is insufficient to restore the peg. The token's extremely low daily volatility (0.2%) means sentiment shifts are gradual rather than explosive.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d)

Bearish

Medium-Term (30d)

Bearish

Both short-term (7d: -1.6%) and medium-term (30d: -3.0%, 90d: -2.9%) trends are uniformly negative, confirming a sustained downtrend rather than a temporary pullback. The daily close sequence shows a clear step-down pattern: from the $0.993–$0.994 range in early observations, through $0.982–$0.985, to the most recent close of $0.9665 — each cluster lower than the last. For a stablecoin-category token, this multi-month peg deviation is technically significant.

Momentum

Status

Oversold

With price at 10% of the 90-day range and the most recent close ($0.9665) sitting near the period low ($0.9619), momentum indicators would likely register oversold conditions. The 0.2% daily volatility means moves are slow and grinding rather than sharp, but the consistent directional bias downward over 90 days without a meaningful recovery attempt suggests exhausted buying momentum rather than a coiled spring.

Volume Analysis

Buy

72%

Sell

28%

Volume Trend

Stable

Granular volume time-series data was not provided. Based on notable recent trades, the largest single transaction was a $186,311 buy, suggesting the token maintains sufficient liquidity for mid-sized trades. The smart money trader (0x3675ab…) executing 3,033 trades implies consistent market-making or arbitrage activity that provides baseline volume stability.

Recent Price Action

The 14 most recent daily closes show a three-phase step-down: a $0.993–$0.994 plateau, a consolidation at $0.982–$0.985, and a sharp drop to $0.9665 in the most recent session — the lowest close in the observable window.

This staircase decline pattern, where price consolidates briefly before dropping to a new lower plateau, is characteristic of sustained selling pressure with intermittent absorption. The absence of any recovery rally over the 90-day window suggests the peg mechanism is either inactive or insufficient at current price levels.

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$0.9619

Major support

$0.9619

Immediate resistance

$0.9840

Major resistance

$1.01

The convergence of immediate and major support at $0.9619 means there is no secondary floor — a break below this OHLC-derived swing low would leave the token in uncharted territory for the 90-day window. The $0.9840 immediate resistance corresponds to the recent consolidation zone and represents the first level the token must reclaim to signal any stabilization. The $1.01 major resistance marks the 90-day high and represents full peg restoration — a level that would require a 4.5% rally from current price.

AI overall risk

Medium

Risk Score

42/100

Risk Breakdown

  • VolatilityLow

    Daily volatility of 0.2% (standard deviation of daily returns) is exceptionally low, consistent with a stablecoin-category token. The 90-day range of $0.9619–$1.01 represents only a 5% spread, meaning price swings are minimal in absolute terms.

  • LiquidityNot assessed

    A liquidity observation is not available in the saved inputs.

  • ConcentrationNot assessed

    Ownership concentration cannot be assessed without a measured supply distribution.

  • Smart ContractNot assessed

    Contract or authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations.

  • RegulatoryMedium

    Stablecoin-category tokens face increasing global regulatory scrutiny (MiCA in Europe, potential US stablecoin legislation). Without knowing the peg mechanism or issuer identity, the regulatory exposure cannot be precisely assessed, warranting a medium classification.

Key Risks

  • Peg failure risk: The token has traded below $1.00 for the entire 90-day observation window with a current deviation of 3.35%, suggesting the stabilization mechanism may be structurally impaired or the token is not designed to maintain a hard peg
  • Information opacity: No project description, no social links, and an anomalous market cap/FDV relationship create significant due diligence barriers — investors cannot independently verify the collateral backing, redemption mechanism, or issuer identity
  • Holder attrition: The net loss of 700 holders over 31 days (-8.0%) indicates the token is losing its user base at a meaningful rate, which could accelerate if peg deviation widens further

Mitigating Factors

  • Structural dump protection: With only 1.9% dumpable supply and dominant protocol/DEX contract ownership, the token is highly resistant to coordinated insider sell-offs
  • Operational longevity: 26.8 months of on-chain operation without a catastrophic failure event suggests the underlying mechanism, while imperfect, has demonstrated basic resilience

Investor Suitability

This token may be suitable for DeFi participants who understand stablecoin mechanics and are comfortable with sub-peg exposure, or for arbitrageurs targeting peg restoration. It is not suitable for investors seeking capital appreciation, those requiring a reliable $1.00 store of value, or anyone unable to independently verify the peg mechanism and collateral backing. The information opacity makes it unsuitable for risk-averse investors.

This token presents a narrow arbitrage thesis (buying at $0.9665 targeting $1.00 peg restoration) rather than a growth investment thesis. The structural dump risk is low, but the persistent peg deviation and declining holder base suggest the restoration catalyst is uncertain and potentially distant.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

The peg mechanism activates or external demand increases, driving price back toward $1.00. Smart money arbitrageurs (already profitable at +$880K realized) accelerate accumulation near the $0.9619 support, the holder decline reverses, and Aerodrome Finance liquidity facilitates smooth price recovery to the $1.01 major resistance.

  • Peg restoration mechanism activation or increased protocol-level demand for the token's utility function
  • Reversal of the 31-day holder decline, signaling renewed ecosystem adoption on Base

Base Case

The token continues to trade in the $0.96–$0.98 range, with smart money arbitrageurs providing a floor near $0.9619 while the peg remains partially broken. Holder count stabilizes at a lower level (~7,500–8,000) and the token persists as a DeFi primitive with limited retail visibility.

  • The $0.9619 OHLC support holds as the structural floor for the 90-day window
  • Aerodrome Finance and protocol contracts maintain their positions, preserving baseline liquidity

Bear Case

Medium probability

The $0.9619 support breaks, the peg deviation widens beyond 5%, and the holder attrition rate accelerates. Without a project description or social presence, there is no community mechanism to coordinate recovery, and the token drifts toward a new lower equilibrium as arbitrageurs exhaust their capacity to absorb sell pressure.

  • Continued holder base contraction (-700 over 31 days) reducing liquidity demand and deepening the peg discount
  • Absence of any public communication or catalyst to restore confidence in the peg mechanism

Analysis Details

Generated

Jul 30, 2026, 06:03 AM UTC

Saved observation

2026-07-30 06:03 UTC

Model Confidence

Medium

Data Snapshot

Price

$Unknown

Market Cap

$41.88M

24h Volume

$0

Holders

8,174

Liquidity

Not available

Data Sources

On-chain transaction data (Base chain, contract 0x526728dbc96689597f85ae4cd716d4f7fccbae9d)90-day daily OHLC price history and computed swing high/low key levels31-day holder trajectory timeseriesTop holder classification (protocol/contract vs. individual whale)Smart money realized PnL data (top 6 profitable traders)Notable recent on-chain swap dataSecurity contract analysis (score: 77/100)

Limitations

  • No project description available — the peg mechanism, collateral type, redemption process, and issuer identity cannot be assessed from on-chain data alone
  • Market cap ($41.88M) vs. FDV ($23.32M) anomaly could not be resolved with available data and may indicate a reporting error or non-standard token accounting
  • Granular 24-hour volume and transaction count data were not provided, limiting intraday trading analysis
  • No social or community data available, preventing assessment of narrative momentum or developer activity

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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