Anthropic Q3 revenue hits $17 billion as growth decelerates from Q2

Weisenthal on midterms and the limits of prediction markets

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal joined the hosts live from the NYSE to discuss the midterms, focusing on Texas as a bellwether. He noted that Governor Abbott, once seen as a lock, has been "flinching" on data-center friendly positioning, and that the Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and a Republican nominee widely viewed as a weak candidate has tightened, with one poll showing the Republican down and betting markets at "about 60%," which Weisenthal said "rounds to 50% in my book."

Asked about prediction markets generally, Weisenthal said he largely trusts them as aggregators of collective wisdom: "Markets are really good conventional wisdom distillers and that's actually very valuable." He argued that when a market shows a candidate with a 40% chance of winning a traditionally safe state, "you got to take that seriously," while acknowledging surprise at some of the larger swings he's seen, including a reported 20%-to-80% move.

The hosts floated a joking theory that the tech industry might secretly favor a "blue wave" to create data-center development bans and constrain AI compute supply, thereby raising prices. Weisenthal engaged with the bit but the conversation did not resolve into a serious claim.

Who captures the AI trade, and why ROI is uneven

The group debated where profits in the AI buildout actually land. Weisenthal said there is "no consensus on who actually makes money" even in a scenario where AI "goes well," listing lab companies, Microsoft-Palantir style integrators, and chipmakers as competing candidates, with ambiguity over whether gains get competed away across the broader economy.

Citing Apollo's Torsten Slock, the host said Fortune 500 companies outside the "Mag 7" are seeing "a little bit of indigestion around AI spend," with tech companies able to deploy agents and see immediate ROI while companies in tires, forestry or oil and gas struggle to convert AI investment into revenue. One host argued the broader AI trade needs "a massive capabilities jump" soon, pointing to Anthropic's Q3 deceleration as a sign the current model generation may be plateauing even as usage keeps growing.

The conversation also touched on "true agency" as the missing ingredient for the next leg up — today's agents, one host said, "are like really all sub agents," only doing what they're explicitly told, and merely cloning the same model rather than offering genuinely different perspectives needed for multi-agent collaboration.

Anthropic's numbers and a European freezer-hacking spree

Anthropic's official Q3 figures showed $17 billion in revenue, implying a run rate the host put at roughly $68-69 billion, with the host noting a deceleration from Q2 that has "people a little nervous."

Separately, hackers have been remotely taking control of supermarket refrigerators and freezers across Europe, raising temperatures and forcing stores to discard food. Affected countries include Sweden, Belgium, Luxembourg, Estonia, Ireland, Netherlands and Finland, with IKEA among the retailers hit. One Swedish ICA store reported freezers reaching 122 degrees Fahrenheit, and a Belgian butcher said his refrigerators were raised to 64 degrees. A spokesperson for Belgium's Center for Cyber Security, Ketrian Edgars, said no one knows who is behind the attacks and that identity may never be established since no ransom has been demanded, fueling suspicion the goal is simply to cause damage rather than extract money.

"There's growing suspicion that the goal is simply to cause damage rather than make money." — the host

F1 sale talk and Northwood Space's rapid new raise

Mark Walter is reportedly exploring a sale of Cadillac F1 at a $3 billion valuation, according to Sportico, despite the team saying less than two months earlier it was not considering an exit. The hosts contrasted F1 teams' cash-flow-based valuations with trophy assets like NBA or NFL franchises, recalling Toto Wolf's comments elsewhere that his Mercedes F1 stake is valued on cash flows rather than hype.

Northwood Space, the hosts said, is "on an absolute tear," raising $375 million at a $2 billion valuation, co-led by a16z and DFJ Growth, less than nine months after its Series B. The company said the funds will go toward accelerating existing contracts, talent acquisition, and building out its ground network for commercial, US government and allied space missions. The hosts framed Northwood's strategy as a contrarian bet that other ground-network players besides SpaceX will be taken seriously.