TBPN3 min read
Moderna's leaked trial data sinks stock 26% as trader's "dreams" nail the flip
A botched embargo, a meme-trader's $500K options bet, and MSG's brutal ring-themed phishing test headline this recap.
AI summary of “Why Moderna Tanked, MSG Employees Duped By Their Boss, The Mansion Section | Diet TBPN”
Key takeaways
- Moderna shares plunged 26% intraday after embargoed phase 3 cancer trial data leaked two days early via Oncology Central.
- The trial beat Keytruda alone but only showed a 42% relative risk reduction, below the phase 2 figure of 49% investors expected.
- Trader "Togi" flipped from Moderna calls to puts hours before the crash, turning a $200K loss into a profitable short using roughly $500,000.
- MSG sent Knicks employees a fake championship-ring email as a phishing test; clickers got mandatory cybersecurity training instead of rings.
- Quest Diagnostics disclosed a hack exposing patient data through its Quantum LSM ordering system, with the investigation ongoing.
Moderna's leaked trial data wipes out hype overnight
Moderna's cancer vaccine, developed in combination with Merck's Keytruda, became the center of a Wall Street Journal story after embargoed phase 3 results leaked two days before the company's scheduled presentation. The host explained that Moderna's phase 2 data had shown a 49% relative risk reduction in cancer recurrence or death versus Keytruda alone, a number investors anchored to heading into the larger trial of over a thousand patients.
When Moderna announced in August that the phase 3 trial "succeeded" without releasing the underlying number, the stock rallied on speculation. But when a medical publication called Oncology Central published the embargoed data ahead of schedule, the actual figure came in at 42%, below expectations. The stock fell 26% intraday and closed down 18%. The host noted the treatment also appeared to take about six months to become effective, limiting its usefulness for fast-growing cancers.
A gambling influencer's two dreams and a "giga stroke of luck"
The episode highlighted trader Shane Stauffer, known online as Togi, who the hosts described as a fitness and gambling influencer running a public stock trading challenge. Togi said he went against bearish crowd sentiment to buy Moderna calls, then had a dream the stock would hit $275, prompting him to ask Claude what that would take and learn about the cancer vaccine trial for the first time.
After a second dream suggested a 22% surge, he kept his long position, but woke to find his portfolio down nearly $200,000. Fearing a "sell the news" scenario, he moved up a planned flip from long to short, freeing roughly $500,000 to buy puts just before the leak hit. He called the outcome a "giga stroke of luck" while also calling the whole saga "beyond obvious" in hindsight.
"And the rest is some giga stroke of luck history." — Togi
MSG's fake championship rings turn into a phishing test
The hosts discussed an Athletic report that Madison Square Garden sent Knicks employees an email appearing to offer a free personalized championship ring, complete with two design choices. Employees who clicked the link did not receive any jewelry; instead they were required to attend a mandatory cybersecurity class tied to James Dolan's cybersecurity concerns.
The hosts debated whether this was fair given reports that not all MSG employees receive championship rings in the first place. One host argued it was "cruel and unusual punishment" given how meaningful a ring would be to long-time staff, while the other suggested it was defensible as long as the phishing email was detectably fake upon close inspection.
"Definitely the most insane thing I've ever heard of a company doing." — the host
Quest Diagnostics hack exposes patient data
Quest Diagnostics disclosed unauthorized access to its Quantum LSM system, used by certain clients to place test orders and view results. The company said some patient data was accessed, confirming that patient health or identifiable information was part of the breach, though it said it is still investigating the specific data affected and that core operations remain unaffected.
The hosts speculated about the financial motive behind targeting medical records, floating the idea that leaked health data on politicians could be used for blackmail or extortion, though they offered this as speculation rather than confirmed reporting.
Lighter segments: Trump, Grok parenting, and a $12.5M Alaska compound
President Trump said Google's Sundar Pichai talked him out of renaming the Atlantic Ocean, joking that oceans "cover a lot of countries." Separately, investor Joe Lonsdale described using Grok, nicknamed "Tradbot" in his household, for parenting tasks including tracking kids' health appointments and advice on weaning a toddler off a pacifier, which the hosts called a notably contrarian use of the tool.
The show also covered a Wall Street Journal Mansion section story on a 147-acre Alaska property with a helipad, owned by retired developer Richard Stricken, listed for $12.5 million as one of the state's most expensive homes.
Written by AI from the video's transcript. It can compress, misattribute or miss context — the original video is the source. Not investment advice.
