TBPN4 min read
Anthropic's $67B run rate disappoints despite 45% quarterly growth
Hosts John Coogan and Jordi Hays break down Anthropic's investor day, an AI-driven selloff, elite inflation data, and a Tesla Roadster bet with real money on the line.
AI summary of “Inflation Heats Up, Anthropic Investor Day, Tesla Roadster Mania| Diet TBPN”
Key takeaways
- Anthropic's Q3 revenue annualizes to $67.2 billion, but the market wanted a bigger surprise after 45% quarter-on-quarter growth.
- Distillation of Anthropic's models by third parties is estimated at 5-7% of revenue, which the hosts say Anthropic believes it can now largely block.
- CoreWeave is down roughly 50% over the past month as the broader AI trade pulls back, with the Nasdaq down about 3.4% versus the Dow up nearly 1%.
- Joe Wisenthal flagged the hottest PPI print in four years, while CPI Reserve data shows luxury goods like the Chanel flap bag up 139% since 2016.
- Jordi Hays put a $5,000 deposit down on the Tesla Roadster, due to launch at 7:55pm Central, and debates with John Coogan over whether it will leave the ground.
Anthropic's investor day numbers underwhelm despite rapid growth
The hosts open by noting the market's reaction to Anthropic's investor day figures, following a month-long decline in AI stocks. Anthropic reported Q3 revenue of $16.8 billion, which annualizes to $67.2 billion. One host calls this "remarkable for a company that was doing you know a tenth of that a year ago," but says it wasn't enough because the market expected a bigger upside surprise, with some predicting the company would "throw up 90."
The hosts attribute part of the shortfall to Meta reportedly shifting toward using its own models rather than Anthropic's, plus a leaked comment from a Meta executive suggesting that if Meta "stop buying Anthropic" it could hurt Anthropic's IPO valuation relative to Meta's own near-$2 trillion valuation.
Anthropic says it has curbed distillation, but fight continues
Anthropic disclosed that distillation — third parties illicitly using its outputs to train competing models — accounts for roughly 5 to 7% of revenue, lower than some expected. The hosts describe this as Anthropic "celebrating" a win, having deployed its own technology to detect and shut down the practice rather than pursuing more drastic measures like banning open source, which they say David Sacks had resisted.
One host calls the scale "staggering," framing it as billions of dollars in effectively fraudulent activity funneled partly through third-party "wrapper" companies that resell access to frontier models. He jokes that such firms are really "distilleries." The hosts also note Meta released an open-source model the same day, suggesting less concern there about distillation of its own models.
AI stock selloff and a rotation into value
CoreWeave has fallen roughly 50% over the past month amid what the hosts describe as a broader AI trade slump. They cite a Brad Gerstner comment from CNBC:
"We have sold, this is according to a meet. We have sold all of our core. We've don't own any of it today. We've taken exposure down over the last three months. We felt AI had overshot and would lead to a period of consolidation."Gerstner reportedly moved 10% of his book into Meta and Tesla.
The hosts push back on the idea of a full "sell everything" panic, noting the Nasdaq is down only about 3.4% while the Dow is up almost 1%, framing it as a rotation rather than a crash. They also mention a hot PPI print described by Joe Wisenthal as the hottest in four years.
Luxury inflation, AI interviews, and an interpretability breakthrough
Using CPI Reserve data tracking luxury goods, the hosts run through examples: a Chanel flap bag up 139% since 2016 to $11,700, Met Gala tickets up to $100,000, Virgin Galactic seats now $750,000, and the Porsche 911 Carrera base up 61% to $135,000. They debate whether each is over- or underrated, with one host calling the Chanel bag overpriced while defending Met Gala tickets as "charitable giving."
Separately, they discuss AI's effect on hiring, citing a Wall Street Journal post shared by Derek Thompson describing job candidates now interviewing with AI avatars, sometimes in McKinsey offices with human observers watching. On a more optimistic note, researcher Nick Cammarata is quoted via the hosts' reading of his post:
"The vast majority in models up to trillions of parameters are legible and their circuits beautiful... I now think ambitious interpretability will be solved by the time we need it most and possibly quite soon."
A pro rata dispute and two car reveals
The hosts recap a public dispute between Valor Atomics founder Isaiah Taylor and venture firm Day One Ventures over pro rata rights, which spilled onto social media after Day One allegedly retained a law firm. The hosts frame it less as a pro rata debate and more as a sign Taylor no longer wants Day One involved, while noting that diluting an investor's pro rata rights once papered is contractually difficult.
Finally, they turn to Tesla's Roadster reveal, with one host revealing he put down a $5,000 deposit and faces a $45,000 wire within 10 days. The two debate whether the car will leave the ground via ramps or its own thrust. They also discuss a leaked video of Tesla's Mission S, with one host saying
"it feels like it's over for every other manufacturer in the... mid-range supercar category."
Written by AI from the video's transcript. It can compress, misattribute or miss context — the original video is the source. Not investment advice.
