InvestAnswers: Bitcoin's monthly trend turns bullish as nation-state count hits 21

Seasonal patterns and chart signals point to a bullish October, the host argues

The host opens by asking "is October here?" and runs through Bitcoin's monthly seasonality since inception. Having closed September positive, he says there is historically a 67% chance October also closes positive, with an average October gain of 13.2%. He adds that when Bitcoin strings together three or more consecutive green months, it extends into a fourth green month "89% of the time or nine out of 13 historical instances," though he cautions October has only just begun and results aren't locked in.

He also points to his own "optimized trend" model, which he says turned blue (bullish) on the monthly timeframe on September 27 at around $76,000, which he calls "a very good sign," noting that signal typically holds for the duration of a bear or bull phase. He contrasts the length of the recent bear phase with prior cycles, saying "you can just see visually how short it was compared to previous bare markets."

"Momentum is aligning with the bulls."

— the host

Overhead resistance from underwater buyers, but long-term holders never went negative

Citing a Glassnode chart, the host says the market has a cohort of "top buyers" who bought six to twelve months ago with an average cost basis of $89,000, and a one-to-two-year cohort near $97,000. He warns these holders may sell once they reach breakeven, calling it "overhead resistance" and naming his own key level of about $87,200, roughly $1,800 below the $89,000 zone.

He contrasts this with long-term holder (155+ days) MVRV data, saying that unlike 2015, 2018 and 2022, this cycle's long-term holder MVRV never dropped below 1.0 during the bear market, meaning long-term holders stayed in profit throughout. He also discusses Bitcoin ETF flow data from Phil Swift, arguing institutional/retail ETF buyers "chase the rallies" and bought heavily near the cycle top, then sold near the cycle bottom around $60,000 in February 2026, which he says offers "zero excuse not to have bought Bitcoin close to 60K."

Nation-state accumulation, monthly gainers and proxy valuations

The host highlights what he calls quiet sovereign adoption, saying Brazil, Czech Republic, Luxembourg, Saudi Arabia and Taiwan have recently added Bitcoin to balance sheets, bringing the total count of nation-state holders to 21. On monthly performance, he says Solana and MicroStrategy both gained 18% over 30 days, Ethereum gained 10%, and Bitcoin gained 8%, calling this evidence that "higher beta plays continue to outperform."

He reports Strategy (MicroStrategy) bought 334 Bitcoin, taking its holdings to an all-time high of 848,000 BTC, funded via $15.7 million of ATM share issuance and $13 million cash, and criticizes the firm for buying back STRC shares, saying "don't dilute the stock for goodness sake." Using his "Hoddle model," he lists NAV premiums/discounts: MicroStrategy at 0.73 (a 27% discount to Bitcoin NAV in his framing), Metaplanet at 0.68, Semler ("21") at 1.02, Marathon at 1.39, with Cleanspark and Riot also mentioned as accumulators. He flags that Semler's premium had fallen from 1.55 a few weeks prior to 1.17 now, and suggests pair trades—shorting an overheated premium while going long Bitcoin.