InvestAnswers and Aaron Burnett model SpaceX toward $902 by 2030 as Starship reaches orbit

SpaceX stock breaks out as Starship reaches orbit

The host opened by noting SpaceX's "stock" (tracked via a chart reference) was up 6.66%, the highest level since June, and asked whether this marked a breakout above a prior resistance around the "155 level." Aaron Burnett said the move looked like consolidation around a roughly two-trillion valuation mark, with some long-term holders diversifying and taking profit, while the overall trend pointed upward. He said he invests with a multi-year horizon rather than trying to time short-term moves, and confirmed he has been dollar-cost-averaging into a position, including inside a Roth account, calling it "a perfect fit for a Roth."

The host argued Wall Street is "waking up" to what he called the Starship unlock, pointing to the ship's first-ever revenue-generating flight and successful orbital mission that week. Burnett pushed back on a "misnomer" that not reaching orbit previously was some disqualifying milestone, explaining the vehicle had already proven the technical steps over a year earlier and had been choosing not to go to orbit. He said it took "19 seconds of lighting one of the six engines" to shift from suborbital to orbital, framing the achievement as more a matter of timing than a major technical leap.

Engine issues and the physics of the orbital burn

Burnett described the ascent using a cannonball analogy: the ship is always falling, but at sufficient speed the ground curves away faster than the vehicle falls, which is what achieves orbit. He said the vehicle only needed "a little bit more of a velocity push" to cross from its usual Indian Ocean splashdown trajectory into orbit. He also addressed in-flight engine issues, noting the newer V3 version of Starship has flown only a few times and that moving between versions typically brings "two steps forward, one step back" as SpaceX works out kinks, which he said explains engine-out events during ascent.

On concerns about fuel tank overheating that reportedly caused an earlier-than-expected return, Burnett said the company is "overly cautious" given the risk of an uncontrolled, reusable vehicle coming down over populated areas, and that extra caution — not technical doubt — explains the conservative approach to pushing toward orbit over many flights.

Record launch cadence and the Louisiana buildout

The host cited a claim from "Larry Goldberg, friend of the channel," that SpaceX launched three rockets in one day — two Falcon 9s and a Falcon Heavy — including a crewed mission and roughly 130 satellites, plus an undisclosed cargo for an agency referred to as "the NRO." Burnett called this evidence of SpaceX's multi-pad strategy, noting the new Starbase Louisiana site matters because it allows simultaneous launches rather than relying on rapid turnaround at a single site.

Discussing why SpaceX can build and iterate faster than large legacy programs, Burnett compared it to the Apollo program, where young, highly motivated teams achieved the Moon landing in about a decade. He argued SpaceX benefits from a similarly strong shared mission:

"it almost feels a little cultic... everyone's on the same page... I will work six days a week."

— Aaron Burnett

Starlink bandwidth leap and compute ambitions

The host presented figures showing Falcon 9 V2 batches carrying 2.78 terabytes per second of Starlink capacity versus a recent Starship Starlink launch carrying 26 terabytes per second with capacity for 60 — what he called a "double step change." Burnett agreed, saying one Starship launch is roughly equivalent to "23 launches of a Falcon 9" in bandwidth terms, and that modeling suggests 2027 bandwidth could double on conservative assumptions, with a less conservative case putting satellite launches well above that by end of next year, depending on build cadence.

The host also referenced figures attributed to SpaceX's CFO and Elon Musk regarding compute: roughly 10 gigawatts of additional compute per year by 2028, scaling to 100 gigawatts the following year (assuming space-based data centers), and a terawatt by the mid-2030s. Burnett did not dispute the scale but tied future compute revenue heavily to chip costs, noting SpaceX's own chip fabrication ambitions as a margin opportunity.

Price targets and valuation models compared

The host shared his own model output: a 2028 price target roughly 3.61x from current levels, and a 2030 "goes big" figure of $902, built from a sum-of-the-parts model including Elon Web Services (EWS/AI compute), an "LLM and Macro hard" automation business, Starlink, Starlink Direct-to-Cell, X payments/revenue, and NASA (estimated by the host at $120 billion). Burnett said his firm's own 2030 range centered near a $7 trillion valuation and that the host's 2030 numbers landed "right in the middle" of that range, but noted his own model barely incorporated AI compute revenue since it was built in June, before the compute narrative solidified.

Both speakers flagged a pending SpaceX–Tesla merger as a key unknown. Burnett said the strategic logic makes sense but the timing is "really hard to know," since both companies may argue they have more growth to capture independently. He estimated SpaceX alone could reasonably be "a 10 trillion plus company," placing it on a short list with Nvidia and major hyperscalers, while the host cited futurist Peter Diamandis's view that a combined Tesla-SpaceX entity could reach $100 trillion by 2035.

Risks: reusability, permits, and nationalization

On technical risk, Burnett said unresolved CO2/H2O ice buildup issues in the Raptor engines could push reliable reusability out to "mid-2027" rather than sooner, but called it manageable given engine-out capability. He downplayed permitting concerns at Starbase Louisiana, saying permits are already being secured and that scale constraints only become relevant near "10,000 launches a year," a threshold tied to lunar and Mars ambitions rather than near-term Starlink or AI compute growth.

Asked for the biggest bear case, Burnett named nationalization as the primary concern, noting that figures "on both sides of the aisle" have floated the idea of nationalizing SpaceX given its dominance over space and AI infrastructure. He also flagged solar storms and Kessler syndrome as lower-probability tail risks. Burnett said his single number to track is Starship reusability:

"if it gets anything past 10 reuses per Starship, then you're everything's golden from there."

— Aaron Burnett, adding that figure could be reached in a couple of years' time.

Outlook: cadence, government revenue, and timing the stock

The host noted a reported figure that 20% of SpaceX's 2025 revenue came from U.S. government contracts, tied to military communications and undisclosed systems; Burnett described Star Shield as a derivative of Starlink carrying sensors and reconnaissance capability, calling defense a growing but historically secondary part of SpaceX's business. On cadence, Burnett said SpaceX is targeting roughly 30 Starlink-carrying Starship launches next year by his firm's conservative estimate, versus Musk's public guidance of "50 to 100."

The host said he expects the next six to nine months to be decisive, as more compute capacity, regular Starship-launched Starlink missions, and a potential S&P 500 inclusion accumulate, after which skepticism about scale becomes harder to sustain. He said his personal target for adding to a position is near $135, close to the IPO price of $151, while Burnett reiterated his preference for the stock's weaker periods as dollar-cost-averaging opportunities.