InvestAnswers: Bitcoin holds near ATHs as ETFs post biggest inflow week since 10/10

Bitcoin defends the breakout as ETF flows and onchain data turn bullish

The host frames the episode around what he calls "fades, flips, and all-time highs": Bitcoin broke through the $82K resistance level, spiked to $87,300, and then faded back into the $83K range on a roughly 5% correction. He says Bitcoin's weekly close was its highest since January 2026, with seven straight green weeks, a break above the 200-day moving average, and a flip to a bullish trend. He calls the current pullback a "typical breather" but flags $81K-$82K as the critical level: losing it could open a path toward $80K or the 20-day moving average near $80,163, though he says "if we stay above 80K, we're totally fine."

He highlights Bitcoin ETFs pulling in about $2.4 billion for the week, calling it the biggest week since the October 10, 2025 "black swan" event, whose one-year anniversary is approaching. He references his own model tying ETF flows to roughly 80% of Bitcoin's price action, and says hitting his stated $5 billion inflow target for October could support a move to $90K — "unless of course they sell off today, which they could with the macro."

On order books, he cites Willie Woo's observation that sell walls in Bitcoin's order book are often "fake," designed to scare sellers so market makers can fill orders cheaply before removing them. He also points to onchain data showing coins leaving exchanges at the fastest pace since October 2025, which he says reduces sell pressure, and cites River data showing 16.3 million BTC unmoved for over six months, an all-time high, which he argues leaves a "incredibly thin slice" of liquid supply available to buyers.

Treasury companies keep buying while the host warns the macro backdrop is "sick"

The host covers Bitcoin treasury companies: MicroStrategy bought 1,665 BTC (about $152 million), bringing its holdings to an all-time high of 847,666 BTC, while maintaining a $6 billion cash buffer to backstop the STRC dividend. He notes chatter that STRC may move to daily dividends, which he argues would mainly smooth out price cliffs around ex-dividend dates rather than change payout size. Strive also bought BTC, taking its holdings to 27,462 BTC. He revisits his "hodl model," noting Strive's NAV premium fell from 1.56 to 1.25 while MicroStrategy's sits at 0.74, and flags MetaPlanet as having paused purchases since around June or July, with its NAV premium down to 0.66 from a peak he calls "bonkers" at 6.5.

On macro, he says conditions are "sick," citing 19-year highs in yields, diesel prices at records, ongoing Hormuz tensions, and Russia stalling diesel exports, which he suggests could hurt Europe. Despite this, he notes risk assets like Nvidia are down even after SpaceX's Starship reached orbit, saying "the market doesn't care." He argues the continued ETF and treasury buying amid a risk-off macro backdrop might signal Bitcoin is starting to trade as a safe haven, something he says he's "been waiting years for."

He closes with a segment on purchasing-power loss, citing True Inflation data showing UK purchasing power down 38.61% since January 2020, and OECD figures he lists as Mexico 36.65%, USA around 32-40%, Spain 28%, Australia 27.25%, Germany 26%, Italy 25%, Canada 24%, France 22.68%, and Japan 13.7%. He frames this as the rationale for holding Bitcoin as a hedge, while cautioning listeners to stay "paranoid" and keep some dry powder given uncertainty over whether October repeats a rough start or turns into a typical strong Q4.

"Bitcoin loves a crisis, and maybe that's what we're getting right now." — the host

"It might be hard to push the Bitcoin price below 80K. We'll watch it carefully." — the host