AVAX

AVAX Price Today & AI Analysis

AVAXSolanaAnalysis as of Sep 21, 2026

Price

$11.9

+17.03% 24h · FDV $561,611

Contract

Live
avaxGHCq3T7hoxd73oY2KY9hJSTaeMibXvHy5KNzh5D

Chain

Solana

Holders

2,533

Market cap

$561,611

More tokens on Solana

TYLERTYLERTyler Raw Fund$0.000772+1578.7%MC $745.6KANSEMANSEMThe Black Bull$0.1624+10.5%MC $161.97MJEANJAKJEANJAKJean Wojak$0.002015+852.7%MC $2.00MPOPCATPOPCATPOPCAT$0.0472-4.9%MC $46.25MZCATZCATAnonymous Cat$0.1284+8.9%MC $124.38MJEANPHILJEANPHILJean Phil$0.003358+0.3%MC $3.26M

AVAX: holders, selling & liquidity

2026-09-21 01:15 UTC

Holder addresses

2,533

Top 10 supply share

14.51%

Reported liquidity

$179,527.00
How concentrated is AVAX ownership?
As of 2026-09-21 01:15 UTC, the provider reports that the top 10 holder addresses hold 14.51% of supply. It reports 2,533 holder addresses in total. Addresses are not people; pool, exchange, burn and related addresses have not been independently classified here.
Are large holders selling AVAX?
This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. As of 2026-09-21 01:15 UTC, the preceding 24-hour DEX volume was $929,999.00 in buys and $862,994.00 in sells. Those totals describe trading activity, not which holders traded. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.
Is AVAX liquidity falling?
Sampled USD liquidity changed +205.58%, from $163,829.67 (2026-09-20 02:00 UTC) to $500,628.85 (2026-09-21 01:00 UTC). This compares the earliest and latest available samples, which may cover less than 24 hours. USD changes can reflect asset prices as well as liquidity deposits or withdrawals.
Sources, observations & limitations

Source: Codex token aggregates, hourly liquidity samples and recent DEX swaps. Token aggregates retrieved 2026-09-21 01:15 UTC; the provider may lag the chain. Buy/sell totals cover the preceding 24 hours. Observations are saved with this report and do not update live. Holder addresses are not unique people. The provider’s top-10 share is not adjusted here for pools, exchanges, burn addresses or related wallets. Sniper classifications and wallet-level holder history are unavailable. Inspect token on the block explorer.

Saved liquidity observations

Observation (UTC)Liquidity (USD)
2026-09-20 02:00 UTC$163,829.67
2026-09-20 03:00 UTC$163,138.02
2026-09-20 04:00 UTC$164,046.02
2026-09-20 05:00 UTC$163,715.88
2026-09-20 06:00 UTC$164,622.82
2026-09-20 07:00 UTC$163,868.72
2026-09-20 08:00 UTC$164,204.67
2026-09-20 09:00 UTC$167,428.07
2026-09-20 10:00 UTC$167,560.72
2026-09-20 11:00 UTC$173,827.97
2026-09-20 12:00 UTC$173,577.37
2026-09-20 13:00 UTC$178,961.84
2026-09-20 14:00 UTC$181,469.07
2026-09-20 15:00 UTC$187,642.00
2026-09-20 16:00 UTC$188,011.73
2026-09-20 17:00 UTC$184,400.54
2026-09-20 18:00 UTC$186,694.17
2026-09-20 19:00 UTC$186,565.87
2026-09-20 20:00 UTC$186,715.70
2026-09-20 21:00 UTC$186,636.07
2026-09-20 22:00 UTC$190,216.41
2026-09-20 23:00 UTC$189,731.92
2026-09-21 00:00 UTC$225,887.85
2026-09-21 01:00 UTC$500,628.85

Recent swap evidence

Up to 10 recent swaps returned by the provider within the preceding 24 hours. This is a sample, not all trades or a ranking of large holders.

Loading price chart…

Ask Unhosted AI about AVAX

Continue in chat

What's Twitter saying?Sentiment, KOL mentions, top tweetsWhale activityWho is accumulating or distributingWhat are the risks?Red flags, security, concentrationShould I buy?Bull case, bear case, entry / exit

Report snapshot

as of Sep 21, 01:16 AM UTC

FDV

$561,611

Liquidity

$179,527.00

Holders

2,533

Snipers

Not available

Risk

Very High

AI Executive Summary

Risk

Very High

Sentiment

Neutral

This is a low-liquidity Solana SPL token trading under the name/symbol 'AVAX' — mimicking the native Avalanche blockchain asset without confirmed affiliation — currently priced at $11.90 (+17.03% over 24h) against only $179.53K of on-chain liquidity and a $561.61K fully diluted valuation. The 24h candle chart shows a grinding uptrend that culminated in an extreme, immediately-reverted spike to $28.83, a hallmark of thin-liquidity volatility or potential manipulation. Critical risk inputs — mint/freeze authority status, sniper activity, and holder history — are all unavailable, leaving significant unresolved uncertainty.

Key points

  • Extreme final-hour price wick to $28.83 that fully reverted to $11.90 within the same candle, on volume ($4.89M) vastly exceeding all prior hours combined
  • Branding as 'AVAX' (Avalanche's native asset) while actually being an unrelated, unverified Solana SPL token with no social links
  • Thin liquidity ($179.53K) relative to both 24h trading volume (~$1.79M) and FDV ($561.61K), creating high slippage and manipulation susceptibility
  • Multiple critical data gaps: mint/freeze authority unknown, no sniper data, no holder history — all unresolved risks rather than mitigating factors

AI Price Analysis

neutral

Short term · 1-24 hours

neutral

Given the immediate rejection from the $28.83 spike back to $11.90, and a current 1h change of -4.40%, short-term direction is highly uncertain and likely to remain volatile within a wide range rather than trending cleanly. A retest of the $11.29-$11.42 support is plausible, with resistance at $12.61 needing to be reclaimed for further upside; failure could see a slide back toward $9.47-$9.58.

Target low

$9.47

Target high

$12.61

Support

$11.29-$11.42, $9.47-$9.58

Resistance

$12.61, $16.93 (unstable, wick-only)

Medium term · 3-7 days

neutral

Medium-term direction is highly uncertain given the lack of fundamental catalysts, unresolved authority-risk data, and a name/branding profile that raises impersonation concerns. Absent new verified information (contract verification, authority renouncement confirmation, or liquidity growth), the token could either stabilize into a range or experience a sharp de-rating if confidence in its legitimacy erodes.

Catalysts

  • Any confirmation (or refutation) of mint/freeze authority renouncement
  • Liquidity depth changes (growth would reduce slippage/manipulation risk; withdrawal would be a major red flag)
  • Emergence of social/community presence or lack thereof reinforcing or undermining legitimacy concerns
  • Continued volume normalization back toward pre-spike hourly averages

Bullish factors

  • 24h price is up 17.03% with buyer count (3,580) exceeding seller count (2,615)
  • Buy volume (51.9%) modestly exceeds sell volume (48.1%) over 24h
  • Steady grinding uptrend visible across hours 8-21 prior to the spike

Bearish factors

  • Extreme spike to $28.83 immediately rejected back to $11.90 within one candle — a classic exhaustion/manipulation signature
  • 1h momentum already reversing at -4.40%
  • Shallow $179.53K liquidity relative to $561.61K FDV and heavy volume creates high slippage and manipulation potential
  • Unknown mint/freeze authority status leaves rug risk fully open
  • Branding impersonates the established Avalanche AVAX asset without verification, no social links, and unconfirmed contract verification

Confidence: low. Confidence is low because critical inputs — mint/freeze authority status, sniper/early-buyer data, holder history, and top-100 concentration — are all unavailable, and the most recent price action (an extreme spike-and-reject candle) makes near-term direction especially hard to forecast from OHLC data alone.

AVAX call history

Full track record →

Sep 21neutral
24hpending
7dpending
30dpending

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

Chain
Solana
Contract
avaxGH...zh5D
Total Supply
47,192.76 AVAX (formatted)

Key Risks

  • Extremely thin liquidity ($179.53K) relative to trading volume and FDV, creating high slippage and price-manipulation potential
  • Violent, unexplained price spike to $28.83 that immediately reverted to $11.90 within the same hour, suggesting possible manipulation, a liquidity event, or unsustainable momentum
  • Token is named/branded 'AVAX' mimicking the native Avalanche asset while actually being an unrelated Solana SPL token with no verified contract status, no social links, and no confirmed authority renouncements — a classic impersonation/rug red flag
  • Mint/freeze authority status unknown — potential for supply inflation or account freezing cannot be ruled out

Smart money & sniper coverage

Sniper classifications and wallet-level trading histories are not available in this report. Sniper concentration, profit-taking and dump risk have not been assessed.

Deep Analysis

Over the last 24 hourly candles the price rose from an open near $9.87 to a close of $11.90, but the path was highly irregular: a choppy sideways/consolidation phase between roughly $9.47 and $9.99 for the first ~7 hours, followed by a grinding uptrend from candle 8 (~$9.66) through candle 21 (~$11.50), and then an extreme parabolic spike in the final two candles — candle 23 printed a high of $16.93 and candle 24 spiked intraday to a high of $28.83 before closing back down at $11.90, i.e., a massive upper wick / blow-off-and-rejection pattern on enormous volume ($436.5K and $4.89M respectively, dwarfing all prior candles which mostly ranged $30-$17K).

Trend

Short-term

Uptrend

Medium-term

Uptrend

Short-term (last few hours) trend is nominally up given the 24h close is well above the period open, but the most recent price action (final candle) shows a violent spike to $28.83 that fully round-tripped back to $11.90, effectively erasing most of the spike gains and leaving the very short-term picture volatile and unresolved. Medium-term (24h window) trend is clearly up, +17.03%, driven almost entirely by the last 2-3 hours of trading.

Momentum & Volume

Momentum

Overbought

Volume trend

Increasing

Buy

52%

Sell

48%

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$11.29-$11.42 (candle 21-23 lows/closes)

Major support

$9.47-$9.58 (candles 1-3 lows, prior consolidation base)

Immediate resistance

$12.61 (candle 22 high, pre-spike)

Major resistance

$16.93-$28.83 (candle 23-24 spike highs, likely unstable/wick-only resistance)

Price is currently trading ($11.90 close) just above immediate support in the $11.29-$11.42 zone established during candles 18-23, with the $9.47-$9.58 zone from the start of the period acting as deeper structural support if the recent gains fully unwind. On the upside, $12.61 (candle 22's high) is the first real resistance to reclaim, while the $16.93-$28.83 zone from the last two candles is extremely unreliable resistance since it was only briefly touched on a wick and immediately rejected — it should not be treated as a stable technical level.

Notable patterns

  • Blow-off top / spike-and-reject wick on the final candle (high $28.83 vs close $11.90)
  • Sharp volume spike (2 candles = ~93% of 24h volume) suggesting thin liquidity or whale/bot-driven move
  • Steady grinding uptrend from hours 8-21 preceding the parabolic spike
  • Early-session sideways consolidation ($9.47-$9.99) before breakout

Liquidity

Liquidity

$179,527.00

Depth

Shallow

Slippage risk

High

Total liquidity of only $179.53K against a 24h trading volume of roughly $1.79M (buy+sell combined) implies the pool is turning over roughly 10x its liquidity depth in a single day — a classic shallow-liquidity, high-slippage setup, especially pronounced given the token trades against a Fully Diluted Valuation of $561.61K, meaning liquidity is only ~32% of FDV. Buy volume ($930.00K, 51.9%) slightly exceeds sell volume ($862.99K, 48.1%), producing a modest net inflow bias, and buyers (3,580) outnumber sellers (2,615) 24h-over-24h, consistent with the sharp 24h price pump (+17.03%). However, the extreme volume-to-liquidity ratio and the parabolic final-hour candle (see technicals) suggest large slippage and price impact risk for any meaningfully sized order, in both directions.

Supply & authorities

Total supply

47,192.76 AVAX (formatted)

FDV

$561.61K

Mint authority

Not available

Freeze authority

Not available

Mint and freeze authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations. Metadata update authority does not establish either permission.

  • Volatilityhigh

    The final hourly candle spiked intraday to $28.83 (a >140% wick above the prior close) before closing back at $11.90, and 1h price change is already -4.40% versus +17.03% for 24h — this is extreme, whipsaw-level volatility inconsistent with stable price discovery.

  • Liquidityhigh

    Total liquidity is only $179.53K against 24h volume near $1.79M combined and an FDV of $561.61K, meaning the pool can be moved dramatically by moderate-sized trades; this thin liquidity likely contributed to the extreme wick observed in the final candle.

  • Concentrationunknown

    Only top-10 concentration (14.51% of supply) is available; top-100 concentration, individual whale wallet identities, and holder classification (team/exchange/insider) are all unavailable, so overall concentration risk cannot be fully assessed beyond this single data point.

  • Sniper DumpNot assessed

    Sniper classifications and wallet trading histories are unavailable.

  • AuthorityNot assessed

    Contract or authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations.

Key risks

  • Extremely thin liquidity ($179.53K) relative to trading volume and FDV, creating high slippage and price-manipulation potential
  • Violent, unexplained price spike to $28.83 that immediately reverted to $11.90 within the same hour, suggesting possible manipulation, a liquidity event, or unsustainable momentum
  • Token is named/branded 'AVAX' mimicking the native Avalanche asset while actually being an unrelated Solana SPL token with no verified contract status, no social links, and no confirmed authority renouncements — a classic impersonation/rug red flag
  • Mint/freeze authority status unknown — potential for supply inflation or account freezing cannot be ruled out
  • No sniper or holder-history data available, removing visibility into early-buyer behavior, bot activity, or distribution trends over time

Mitigating factors

  • Top-10 holder concentration of 14.51% is moderate rather than extreme, at least at face value
  • 24h buy/sell volume is fairly balanced (51.9%/48.1%) and buyer count (3,580) exceeds seller count (2,615), suggesting broad-based participation rather than a single dumping wallet
  • Trading is occurring on a recognizable venue (Orca) with an identifiable pair address

Suitable for

This token profile is suitable only for highly risk-tolerant, speculative traders who fully understand and accept the possibility of near-total capital loss. The combination of shallow liquidity, an extreme unexplained price wick, an impersonation-style name/branding mismatch (claiming to be Avalanche's native AVAX while being an unrelated Solana SPL token), and multiple unresolved authority/concentration/sniper data gaps make this unsuitable for conservative or passive investors.

This token presents as a small-cap, thinly-liquid Solana SPL asset trading under the ticker/name 'AVAX' — a name that mimics the native Avalanche blockchain asset without any confirmed relationship to it, no social links, and no verified contract status. Price action shows a genuine multi-hour grind higher (+17.03% over 24h) culminating in an extreme, immediately-reverted spike to $28.83, all against only $179.53K of liquidity. The setup is dominated by unresolved data gaps (authorities, sniper activity, holder history) rather than confirmed fundamentals.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

If the steady uptrend seen in hours 8-21 reflects genuine organic accumulation and the parabolic wick was simply a liquidity-driven overshoot rather than manipulation, the token could consolidate its gains above the $11.29-$11.42 support zone and attempt to retest the $12.61 and higher levels, supported by balanced buy/sell flow (51.9%/48.1%) and more buyers than sellers (3,580 vs 2,615) in the 24h window.

  • Sustained buy-side dominance and buyer/seller ratio staying favorable
  • Price holding above the $11.29-$11.42 immediate support zone
  • No confirmed evidence yet of mint-authority abuse or rug mechanics materializing

Base Case

Price likely remains highly volatile and range-bound between the $9.47-$9.58 deep support and the unstable $16.93-$28.83 spike zone, with the $11.29-$12.61 area serving as the more realistic near-term trading range as the market digests the recent spike and volume normalizes back toward pre-spike levels (a few hundred to a few thousand dollars per hour).

  • No confirmed rug event (mint inflation, freeze, or liquidity removal) occurs in the near term
  • Volume reverts toward its pre-spike baseline rather than sustaining at spike-level intensity
  • No new verified information emerges about contract authorities or team identity

Bear Case

High probability

The blow-off wick to $28.83 followed by an immediate collapse to $11.90 is a strong signal of manipulation, a liquidity/oracle glitch, or a pump-and-dump pattern in a shallow $179.53K pool; combined with unknown mint/freeze authority status and a name that impersonates a major established asset without verification, this token could see a rapid, severe price collapse or an outright rug (mint inflation, freeze, or liquidity pull).

  • Unknown mint/freeze authority status leaves rug/inflation risk fully open
  • Extreme volume concentration in the final 2 candles ($5.3M of roughly $6M+ implied 24h activity) indicates fragile, possibly artificial price action
  • Impersonation-style branding (claiming AVAX identity on Solana) with no verified contract or social presence is a classic scam pattern
  • Shallow liquidity relative to FDV ($179.53K vs $561.61K) makes large sell-offs highly damaging to price

Analysis details

Generated

Sep 21, 01:16 AM UTC

Saved observation

2026-09-21 01:15 UTC

Model confidence

Low

Data sources

  • On-chain token metadata (mint, decimals, supply, FDV)
  • Orca DEX pair price feed
  • Hourly OHLC candle data (24 most recent hours)
  • Trading analytics aggregator (24h buy/sell volume, buyer/seller counts, price % change)
  • Codex holder aggregates (current snapshot only)
  • Sniper analysis endpoint (returned no data for this token)

Limitations

  • No sniper data was available at all for this token
  • No holder history (24h/7d/30d growth) was available — only a current snapshot of holder count and top-10 concentration
  • No top-100 holder concentration, wallet classification, or notable-holder identification was available
  • Mint authority, freeze authority, contract verification, and mutability status were all marked unknown in source data
  • The extreme final-candle price spike ($28.83 high) could reflect a data/oracle anomaly, thin-liquidity wick, or genuine manipulation — the data provided cannot distinguish between these causes
  • Token branding as 'AVAX' cannot be verified against the actual Avalanche network asset; no social links were provided to corroborate legitimacy

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

This report is generated from limited, possibly incomplete on-chain and market data and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an endorsement of this token. Token names, symbols, and descriptions are creator-supplied and may be misleading or adversarial. Cryptocurrency trading, especially in low-liquidity assets, carries substantial risk of total loss. Conduct independent due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions

How concentrated is AVAX ownership?

As of 2026-09-21 01:15 UTC, the provider reports that the top 10 holder addresses hold 14.51% of supply. It reports 2,533 holder addresses in total. Addresses are not people; pool, exchange, burn and related addresses have not been independently classified here.

Are large holders selling AVAX?

This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. As of 2026-09-21 01:15 UTC, the preceding 24-hour DEX volume was $929,999.00 in buys and $862,994.00 in sells. Those totals describe trading activity, not which holders traded. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.

Is AVAX liquidity falling?

Sampled USD liquidity changed +205.58%, from $163,829.67 (2026-09-20 02:00 UTC) to $500,628.85 (2026-09-21 01:00 UTC). This compares the earliest and latest available samples, which may cover less than 24 hours. USD changes can reflect asset prices as well as liquidity deposits or withdrawals.

What is the short-term price outlook for AVAX (AVAX)?

Given the immediate rejection from the $28.83 spike back to $11.90, and a current 1h change of -4.40%, short-term direction is highly uncertain and likely to remain volatile within a wide range rather than trending cleanly. A retest of the $11.29-$11.42 support is plausible, with resistance at $12.61 needing to be reclaimed for further upside; failure could see a slide back toward $9.47-$9.58. Short-term outlook is neutral (1-24 hours), with a target range of $9.47 to $12.61.

Is AVAX a safe investment on Solana?

The AI assessment rates overall risk as very high with a risk score of 85/100. This token profile is suitable only for highly risk-tolerant, speculative traders who fully understand and accept the possibility of near-total capital loss. The combination of shallow liquidity, an extreme unexplained price wick, an impersonation-style name/branding mismatch (claiming to be Avalanche's native AVAX while being an unrelated Solana SPL token), and multiple unresolved authority/concentration/sniper data gaps make this unsuitable for conservative or passive investors.

What are the key risks of holding AVAX?

Extremely thin liquidity ($179.53K) relative to trading volume and FDV, creating high slippage and price-manipulation potential • Violent, unexplained price spike to $28.83 that immediately reverted to $11.90 within the same hour, suggesting possible manipulation, a liquidity event, or unsustainable momentum • Token is named/branded 'AVAX' mimicking the native Avalanche asset while actually being an unrelated Solana SPL token with no verified contract status, no social links, and no confirmed authority renouncements — a classic impersonation/rug red flag

← Back to all predictions

Track AVAX