パンチ Price Today & AI Analysis

PunchSolanaAnalysis as of May 4, 2026

$0.000294

+1.79% 24h

Contract

Live

NV2RYH954cTJ3ckFUpvfqaQXU4ARqqDH3562nFSpump

Chain

Solana

Holders

23,159

Market cap

$293,604

At a $1M market cap, $PUNCH would be $0.001000 (3.41x from today’s price)

Market cap calculator

Is Punch a scam?

Unhosted check · Nov 1

Watch insiders

No scam signals in Unhosted’s checks, but wallets from the launch still hold 16% of the supply.

Can you sell?

YesNothing in the token can block or tax a sell

Launch wallets hold

16%906 insiders still holding

Read from the token’s own on-chain settings, with Unhosted’s automated check: a warning signal, not a guarantee either way. The settings say whether the token can block or tax a sell, not whether its pool has the liquidity to sell into.

Ask Unhosted AI about Punch

3 free answers a day

What's Twitter saying?Sentiment, KOL mentions, top tweets Whale activityWho is accumulating or distributing What are the risks?Red flags, security, concentration Should I buy?Bull case, bear case, entry / exit

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パンチ: holders, selling & liquidity

2026-05-04 23:19 UTC

Holder addresses

24,855

Top 10 supply share

Not available

Reported liquidity

$325,707.66

How concentrated is パンチ ownership?: Top-10 ownership concentration is not available in this report. The saved holder count is 24,855 addresses (2026-05-04 23:19 UTC). A holder count alone does not establish how supply is distributed.
Are large holders selling パンチ?: This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. A complete buy/sell volume observation is not available in the saved inputs. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.
Is パンチ liquidity falling?: As of 2026-05-04 23:19 UTC, reported liquidity was $325,707.66. At least two timestamped liquidity observations are needed to establish a change; this report does not have them.

Sources, observations & limitations

Source: inputs saved with the report generated 2026-05-04 23:19 UTC. Original provider retrieval times and historical samples were not recorded. Legacy zero placeholders are treated as unavailable. Holder addresses are not unique people. The provider’s top-10 share is not adjusted here for pools, exchanges, burn addresses or related wallets. Sniper classifications and wallet-level holder history are unavailable. Inspect token on the block explorer.

Recent swap evidence

Swap evidence is unavailable for this report.

Report snapshot

as of May 4, 11:19 PM UTC

FDV

$2,394,663

Liquidity

$325,707.66

Holders

24,855

Snipers

Not available

Risk

High

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1h chart read; Support, resistance, Fibonacci and RSI divergence are drawn on the chart once it loads.

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AI Executive Summary

Risk

High

Sentiment

Neutral

パンチ (Punch) is a Solana meme token launched on PumpSwap, themed around a viral Japanese macaque baby named Punch who survived abandonment through hand-rearing at a Japanese zoo. The token trades at $0.002395 with a fully diluted valuation of ~$2.49M and total liquidity of $325.71K. It has 24,855 holders and has posted a strong 29.26% 24h price gain, though this comes against a backdrop of persistent holder decline (-13% over 30 days) and heavy sell-side pressure (68.3% sell volume). The token is a high-risk meme asset with a compelling narrative but deteriorating holder base.

Key points

Viral Japanese macaque meme narrative with real-world emotional resonance and social media traction
Strong 24h price surge (+29.26%) driven by a spike in buy volume during the 18:00–22:00 UTC window
Relatively deep liquidity for a PumpSwap meme token at $325.71K
Verified contract with mutable=false metadata, reducing certain manipulation vectors
Large holder base of 24,855 wallets, though declining steadily over 30 days

AI Price Analysis

neutral

Short term · 24–72 hours

neutral

The token has surged ~29% in 24h, driven by a concentrated volume spike in the 18:00–22:00 UTC candles. Sell pressure dominates at 68.3% of volume (735 sells vs 225 buys). The price may consolidate or retrace toward the $0.00205–$0.00215 zone as profit-takers emerge. A continuation above $0.00251 would signal renewed momentum.

Target low

$0.00195

Target high

$0.00260

Support: $0.00215 (candle [3] close / prior resistance), $0.00205 (candle [4] close), $0.00195 (candle [7] open / multi-hour base)
Resistance: $0.00251 (candle [2] high — 24h peak), $0.00247 (candle [6] high), $0.00242 (candle [1] open / current area)

Medium term · 7–30 days

bearish

The 30-day holder trend is firmly negative (-3,179 holders, -13%), and sell pressure consistently outweighs buying. Without a sustained catalyst or new viral moment, the token is likely to drift lower as early holders continue to exit. A recovery above $0.0030 would require significant new community inflows.

Catalysts

New viral social media moment featuring Punch the macaque
Broader Solana meme season rally lifting all meme tokens
Influencer or KOL promotion driving new buyer inflows
Holder base stabilization and reversal of the 30-day decline

Bullish factors

Strong 24h price gain of +29.26% showing short-term momentum
Viral narrative with genuine emotional appeal and social media presence
Liquidity of $325.71K is relatively healthy for a PumpSwap meme token
Price has been making higher lows over the 24h candle series (from $0.001827 low to current $0.002395)
Verified contract and immutable metadata reduce some rug risk vectors

Bearish factors

68.3% sell pressure vs 31.7% buy pressure — sellers dominate
735 sells vs 225 buys in 24h — 3.27x more sell transactions
Holder count declining for 30 consecutive days (-3,179 holders, -13%)
Top 10 holders control 25.02% of supply; top 100 control 64.54%
No sniper data available, limiting smart money visibility
Meme token with no utility — entirely narrative-dependent

Confidence: low. Confidence is low due to the meme token nature of the asset, absence of sniper data, heavy sell-side dominance, and a persistent 30-day holder decline. The 24h price spike appears momentum-driven rather than fundamentally supported, making directional prediction unreliable.

Token Info

Chain: Solana
Contract: NV2RYH...pump
Total Supply: 999,835,501.61

Key Risks

Persistent 30-day holder decline (-13%, -3,179 holders) with no sign of reversal
68.3% sell pressure dominance — 3.27x more sell transactions than buys in 24h
Meme token with zero utility — entirely dependent on narrative virality and community momentum
Unknown mint/freeze authority status — potential rug vector if not renounced

Smart money & sniper coverage

Sniper classifications and wallet-level trading histories are not available in this report. Sniper concentration, profit-taking and dump risk have not been assessed.

Deep Analysis

Over the 24 hourly candles analyzed (2026-05-04 00:00–23:00 UTC), the token formed a clear uptrend from a low of $0.001827 (candle [23] low) to a high of $0.002511 (candle [2] high), representing a ~37.4% intraday range. The early candles (00:00–06:00 UTC) showed tight consolidation between $0.001827–$0.002007 with low volume ($1,152–$4,189). A breakout began at candle [7] (17:00 UTC) with expanding volume, culminating in a high-volume surge at candle [6] (18:00 UTC, volume $45,191) that pushed price from $0.002052 to a high of $0.002469. Candles [2] and [1] confirmed continuation with the 24h high of $0.002511 reached. The most recent candle [1] closed at $0.002395, slightly below the session high, suggesting mild exhaustion.

Trend

Short-term

Uptrend

Medium-term

Downtrend

Short-term (24h) trend is clearly bullish with higher lows and higher highs throughout the session. However, the medium-term (30-day) context shows a declining holder base and price levels that remain well below any prior peaks, suggesting the broader trend is still bearish. The current 24h rally may be a counter-trend bounce.

Momentum & Volume

Momentum

Overbought

Volume trend

Increasing

Buy

32%

Sell

68%

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$0.00215 (candle [3] close, prior resistance turned support)

Major support

$0.00195 (candle [7] open, multi-hour consolidation base)

Immediate resistance

$0.00251 (candle [2] high — 24h peak)

Major resistance

$0.00247 (candle [6] high, high-volume candle top)

The $0.00215 level is the first meaningful support, representing the close of the post-breakout candle [3]. Below that, $0.00195 served as the base for the breakout and represents stronger structural support. On the upside, $0.00247–$0.00251 is the key resistance zone formed by the two highest-volume candles of the session.

Notable patterns

Higher lows throughout the 24h session (from $0.001827 to $0.002125 as session lows progressed)
High-volume breakout candle at 18:00 UTC (candle [6]) — classic volume-led momentum spike
Potential doji/exhaustion at candle [1] — close ($0.002395) well below high ($0.002423 open), narrow body suggesting indecision
Bull engulfing pattern at candle [2] — large body engulfing prior candle range with high volume
Low-volume consolidation base (candles [8]–[18]) before breakout — classic accumulation-then-breakout structure

Liquidity

$325,707.66

Depth

Moderate

Slippage risk

Medium

Total liquidity of $325.71K on PumpSwap is moderate for a meme token at this market cap (~$2.49M FDV), representing approximately 13% of FDV in liquidity — a reasonable ratio. However, the 24h trading dynamics are concerning: sell volume ($94,650) is 2.16x buy volume ($43,880), and unique sellers (387) outnumber unique buyers (114) by 3.4x. This indicates net capital outflow despite the price increase, which is possible when large buy orders push price up while many smaller sellers take profits. The 24h volume spike was concentrated in two candles (18:00 and 22:00 UTC), suggesting event-driven rather than organic trading. Slippage risk is medium — $325K liquidity can absorb moderate trades but large whale exits (e.g., the 2.9% holder liquidating ~$72K worth) could cause significant price impact.

Supply & authorities

Total supply

999,835,501.61

FDV

$2,394,662.65

Mint authority

Not available

Freeze authority

Not available

Mint and freeze authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations. Metadata update authority does not establish either permission.

Volatilityhigh
29.26% single-day price swing with a 37.4% intraday range. Meme tokens of this type routinely experience 50–90% drawdowns. The concentrated volume spike in two candles suggests pump-and-dump dynamics are possible.
Liquiditymedium
$325.71K liquidity is moderate but not deep. Large holder exits (top non-LP holders hold 2–3% each, worth $48K–$72K at current prices) could cause significant slippage and price impact.
ConcentrationNot assessed
Ownership concentration cannot be assessed without a measured supply distribution.
Sniper DumpNot assessed
Sniper classifications and wallet trading histories are unavailable.
AuthorityNot assessed
Contract or authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations.

Key risks

Persistent 30-day holder decline (-13%, -3,179 holders) with no sign of reversal
68.3% sell pressure dominance — 3.27x more sell transactions than buys in 24h
Meme token with zero utility — entirely dependent on narrative virality and community momentum
Unknown mint/freeze authority status — potential rug vector if not renounced
Price pump appears concentrated in two high-volume candles, raising pump-and-dump concerns
Top 100 holders control 64.54% of supply — coordinated selling could devastate price

Mitigating factors

Mutable: false metadata reduces metadata manipulation risk
Verified contract and not flagged as spam by metadata provider
Liquidity of $325.71K is relatively healthy for a ~$2.49M FDV meme token
No single non-LP wallet holds more than 2.90% of supply — distributed whale structure
Genuine viral narrative with real-world emotional appeal and social media presence
PumpSwap launch mechanism typically burns mint authority at bonding curve completion

Suitable for

Suitable only for high-risk-tolerant speculators who can afford to lose their entire investment. Not suitable for conservative or moderate-risk investors. Position sizing should be minimal (1–3% of portfolio maximum). This is a meme token with no utility, declining holder base, and dominant sell pressure — treat as a speculative trade, not an investment.

Punch (パンチ) is a viral Japanese macaque meme token with a compelling emotional narrative, moderate liquidity, and a strong 24h price surge. However, the investment case is undermined by a persistent 30-day holder decline, overwhelming sell-side dominance, and the inherent speculative nature of meme tokens. The token is best viewed as a short-term momentum trade rather than a medium-term hold.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

The Punch macaque story continues to go viral on social media (Twitter/X, TikTok, Reddit), driving a wave of new buyers into the token. Influencer promotion amplifies the narrative, holder count stabilizes and reverses, and the token breaks above $0.00251 resistance toward $0.004–$0.006 range, implying a 2–3x from current levels.

Sustained viral social media momentum around the Punch macaque story
Influencer or KOL promotion on Crypto Twitter or Japanese social media
Broader Solana meme season rally lifting sentiment across the ecosystem
Holder count reversal from decline to growth, signaling new community formation

Base Case

The token consolidates in the $0.0019–$0.0024 range over the next 1–2 weeks, with occasional volatility spikes tied to social media activity. Holder decline continues at a moderated pace (-30 to -80 per day). The token survives but does not achieve significant new highs without a major catalyst.

No major new viral catalyst emerges in the near term
Sell pressure moderates but remains dominant
Liquidity remains stable around $300K–$350K
Holder decline rate slows but does not reverse

Bear Case

High probability

The 24h price pump fades as profit-takers continue to dominate (68.3% sell pressure). Holder decline accelerates, liquidity thins, and the token retraces to the $0.0015–$0.0018 range (pre-pump levels) or lower. Without a new viral catalyst, the meme narrative fades and the token becomes illiquid.

Continued holder attrition — 30 consecutive days of decline with no reversal signal
Sell pressure (68.3%) far exceeding buy pressure (31.7%) even during a price pump
Meme narrative fatigue — viral moments are inherently short-lived
Potential large whale exits from top non-LP holders (2–3% positions each)

Analysis details

Generated

May 4, 11:19 PM UTC

Saved observation

2026-05-04 23:19 UTC

Model confidence

Medium

Data sources

On-chain token metadata (Mint: NV2RYH954cTJ3ckFUpvfqaQXU4ARqqDH3562nFSpump)
PumpSwap pair data (A6KHMiFzn9AM7VKBtVP4fZNY9bCo2jP63R9dphaW1vrq)
Hourly OHLC candle data (24 candles, 2026-05-04)
Trading analytics (24h buy/sell volume, unique wallets)
Holder metrics and distribution data
30-day historical holder series (daily)
Top 20 holder wallet data
Sniper analysis (not available for this token)

Limitations

No sniper data available — early buyer behavior and dump risk cannot be quantified
Update authority listed as 'unknown' — mint and freeze authority status cannot be confirmed
Top holder wallet classifications are inferred from context (LP address match) rather than verified on-chain labels
No order book depth data available — slippage estimates are approximations based on liquidity pool size
30-day holder history only — longer-term trend context unavailable
No trading history beyond 24 hourly candles — medium-term technical analysis is limited

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Meme tokens carry extreme risk of total loss. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past price performance is not indicative of future results.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is パンチ (Punch) a scam?

No scam signals in Unhosted’s checks, but wallets from the launch still hold 16% of the supply. Checked Nov 1, 2026. This is Unhosted’s automated risk check, a warning signal rather than a guarantee either way.

Can I sell パンチ (Punch)?

Yes. Nothing in the token’s on-chain settings can block or tax a sell: no freeze authority, no transfer fee and no transfer hook. Checked Nov 1, 2026. This reads the token’s own settings; whether its pool has enough liquidity to sell into is a separate question.

How concentrated is パンチ ownership?

Top-10 ownership concentration is not available in this report. The saved holder count is 24,855 addresses (2026-05-04 23:19 UTC). A holder count alone does not establish how supply is distributed.

Are large holders selling パンチ?

This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. A complete buy/sell volume observation is not available in the saved inputs. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.

Is パンチ liquidity falling?

As of 2026-05-04 23:19 UTC, reported liquidity was $325,707.66. At least two timestamped liquidity observations are needed to establish a change; this report does not have them.

What is the short-term price outlook for パンチ (Punch)?

Is Punch a safe investment on Solana?

The AI assessment rates overall risk as high with a risk score of 7.8/100. Suitable only for high-risk-tolerant speculators who can afford to lose their entire investment. Not suitable for conservative or moderate-risk investors. Position sizing should be minimal (1–3% of portfolio maximum). This is a meme token with no utility, declining holder base, and dominant sell pressure — treat as a speculative trade, not an investment.

What are the key risks of holding Punch?

Persistent 30-day holder decline (-13%, -3,179 holders) with no sign of reversal • 68.3% sell pressure dominance — 3.27x more sell transactions than buys in 24h • Meme token with zero utility — entirely dependent on narrative virality and community momentum