Punch

パンチ Price Today & AI Analysis

PunchSolanaAnalysis as of May 4, 2026

Price

$0.000386

-3.07% 24h · FDV $386,413

Contract

Live
NV2RYH954cTJ3ckFUpvfqaQXU4ARqqDH3562nFSpump

Chain

Solana

Holders

23,609

Market cap

$386,413

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What's Twitter saying?Sentiment, KOL mentions, top tweetsWhale activityWho is accumulating or distributingWhat are the risks?Red flags, security, concentrationShould I buy?Bull case, bear case, entry / exit

Report snapshot

as of May 4, 11:19 PM UTC

FDV

$2,394,663

Liquidity

$325,708

Holders

24,855

Snipers

0

Risk

High

AI Executive Summary

Risk

High

Sentiment

Neutral

パンチ (Punch) is a Solana meme token launched on PumpSwap, themed around a viral Japanese macaque baby named Punch who survived abandonment through hand-rearing at a Japanese zoo. The token trades at $0.002395 with a fully diluted valuation of ~$2.49M and total liquidity of $325.71K. It has 24,855 holders and has posted a strong 29.26% 24h price gain, though this comes against a backdrop of persistent holder decline (-13% over 30 days) and heavy sell-side pressure (68.3% sell volume). The token is a high-risk meme asset with a compelling narrative but deteriorating holder base.

Key points

  • Viral Japanese macaque meme narrative with real-world emotional resonance and social media traction
  • Strong 24h price surge (+29.26%) driven by a spike in buy volume during the 18:00–22:00 UTC window
  • Relatively deep liquidity for a PumpSwap meme token at $325.71K
  • Verified contract with mutable=false metadata, reducing certain manipulation vectors
  • Large holder base of 24,855 wallets, though declining steadily over 30 days

AI Price Analysis

neutral

Short term · 24–72 hours

neutral

The token has surged ~29% in 24h, driven by a concentrated volume spike in the 18:00–22:00 UTC candles. Sell pressure dominates at 68.3% of volume (735 sells vs 225 buys). The price may consolidate or retrace toward the $0.00205–$0.00215 zone as profit-takers emerge. A continuation above $0.00251 would signal renewed momentum.

Target low

$0.00195

Target high

$0.00260

Support

$0.00215 (candle [3] close / prior resistance), $0.00205 (candle [4] close), $0.00195 (candle [7] open / multi-hour base)

Resistance

$0.00251 (candle [2] high — 24h peak), $0.00247 (candle [6] high), $0.00242 (candle [1] open / current area)

Medium term · 7–30 days

bearish

The 30-day holder trend is firmly negative (-3,179 holders, -13%), and sell pressure consistently outweighs buying. Without a sustained catalyst or new viral moment, the token is likely to drift lower as early holders continue to exit. A recovery above $0.0030 would require significant new community inflows.

Catalysts

  • New viral social media moment featuring Punch the macaque
  • Broader Solana meme season rally lifting all meme tokens
  • Influencer or KOL promotion driving new buyer inflows
  • Holder base stabilization and reversal of the 30-day decline

Bullish factors

  • Strong 24h price gain of +29.26% showing short-term momentum
  • Viral narrative with genuine emotional appeal and social media presence
  • Liquidity of $325.71K is relatively healthy for a PumpSwap meme token
  • Price has been making higher lows over the 24h candle series (from $0.001827 low to current $0.002395)
  • Verified contract and immutable metadata reduce some rug risk vectors

Bearish factors

  • 68.3% sell pressure vs 31.7% buy pressure — sellers dominate
  • 735 sells vs 225 buys in 24h — 3.27x more sell transactions
  • Holder count declining for 30 consecutive days (-3,179 holders, -13%)
  • Top 10 holders control 25.02% of supply; top 100 control 64.54%
  • No sniper data available, limiting smart money visibility
  • Meme token with no utility — entirely narrative-dependent

Confidence: low. Confidence is low due to the meme token nature of the asset, absence of sniper data, heavy sell-side dominance, and a persistent 30-day holder decline. The 24h price spike appears momentum-driven rather than fundamentally supported, making directional prediction unreliable.

Token Info

Chain
Solana
Contract
NV2RYH...pump
Total Supply
999,835,501.61

Key Risks

  • Persistent 30-day holder decline (-13%, -3,179 holders) with no sign of reversal
  • 68.3% sell pressure dominance — 3.27x more sell transactions than buys in 24h
  • Meme token with zero utility — entirely dependent on narrative virality and community momentum
  • Unknown mint/freeze authority status — potential rug vector if not renounced

Smart Money & Sniper Analysis

low confidenceHigh risk

No sniper analysis data was provided for Punch (パンチ). Smart money signals cannot be reliably assessed. The absence of sniper data means we cannot determine whether early buyers are in profit, how much supply was sniped at launch, or whether coordinated dump risk exists from early wallets. The 68.3% sell pressure in 24h trading and the 30-day holder decline suggest some degree of distribution is occurring, but the source wallets cannot be identified without sniper data.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Sniper details

Sniper concentration
0.00%
PnL state
Unknown
Sell-through rate
Unknown
Profit-taking risk
high

No sniper data available for this token.

Unknown — no sniper data available. However, the persistent 30-day holder decline (-13%) and dominant sell pressure (68.3%) suggest early holders may be distributing into price strength.

Deep Analysis

Over the 24 hourly candles analyzed (2026-05-04 00:00–23:00 UTC), the token formed a clear uptrend from a low of $0.001827 (candle [23] low) to a high of $0.002511 (candle [2] high), representing a ~37.4% intraday range. The early candles (00:00–06:00 UTC) showed tight consolidation between $0.001827–$0.002007 with low volume ($1,152–$4,189). A breakout began at candle [7] (17:00 UTC) with expanding volume, culminating in a high-volume surge at candle [6] (18:00 UTC, volume $45,191) that pushed price from $0.002052 to a high of $0.002469. Candles [2] and [1] confirmed continuation with the 24h high of $0.002511 reached. The most recent candle [1] closed at $0.002395, slightly below the session high, suggesting mild exhaustion.

Trend

Short-term

Uptrend

Medium-term

Downtrend

Short-term (24h) trend is clearly bullish with higher lows and higher highs throughout the session. However, the medium-term (30-day) context shows a declining holder base and price levels that remain well below any prior peaks, suggesting the broader trend is still bearish. The current 24h rally may be a counter-trend bounce.

Momentum & Volume

Momentum

Overbought

Volume trend

Increasing

Buy

32%

Sell

68%

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$0.00215 (candle [3] close, prior resistance turned support)

Major support

$0.00195 (candle [7] open, multi-hour consolidation base)

Immediate resistance

$0.00251 (candle [2] high — 24h peak)

Major resistance

$0.00247 (candle [6] high, high-volume candle top)

The $0.00215 level is the first meaningful support, representing the close of the post-breakout candle [3]. Below that, $0.00195 served as the base for the breakout and represents stronger structural support. On the upside, $0.00247–$0.00251 is the key resistance zone formed by the two highest-volume candles of the session.

Notable patterns

  • Higher lows throughout the 24h session (from $0.001827 to $0.002125 as session lows progressed)
  • High-volume breakout candle at 18:00 UTC (candle [6]) — classic volume-led momentum spike
  • Potential doji/exhaustion at candle [1] — close ($0.002395) well below high ($0.002423 open), narrow body suggesting indecision
  • Bull engulfing pattern at candle [2] — large body engulfing prior candle range with high volume
  • Low-volume consolidation base (candles [8]–[18]) before breakout — classic accumulation-then-breakout structure

Holder growth

Total holders

24,855

24h Δ

-0.16

7d Δ

-2.9

30d Δ

-13

Accelerating Growth

No

Correlation with price

Inverse correlation observed: the 24h price surge of +29.26% occurred simultaneously with a net loss of 39 holders in 24h, suggesting the price pump is not attracting new holders but rather enabling existing holders to exit at better prices. The 30-day decline of -3,179 holders (-13%) has been consistent and persistent regardless of short-term price action.

Holder count has declined every single day for the past 30 days without exception, falling from 27,925 on April 4 to 24,855 currently — a loss of 3,070 holders over the observed period. The rate of decline was steepest in mid-April (April 16–18: -189 to -259 per day) and has moderated slightly in recent days (-38 to -76 per day in early May), suggesting the decline is decelerating but not reversing. The 7d decline of -720 (-2.90%) and 30d decline of -3,179 (-13.00%) paint a clear picture of sustained holder attrition. The +9 holder gain in the last 1h is a minor positive but insufficient to signal a trend reversal. Acquisition is dominated by swaps (22,700 of 24,855 holders), indicating most holders entered via trading rather than airdrops or transfers.

Concentration

Top 10 hold

25.02%

Top 100 hold

64.54%

Sentiment

Mixed

The top 10 holders control 25.02% of supply and the top 100 control 64.54%, indicating a moderately concentrated distribution. The largest single holder (6.85%) is the PumpSwap liquidity pool itself, which is expected and healthy. Excluding the LP, the next 9 holders each hold between 1.25%–2.90%, with no single non-LP wallet exceeding 3%. This is a relatively distributed whale structure for a meme token. However, the 185 whale-classified wallets and 64.54% top-100 concentration still represent meaningful dump risk if large holders coordinate exits. Holder #19 (J9bxmWqDaGG1RgekkRsybwbEGGCzFeJenWm7WzodWi7G) holds exactly 9,000,000 tokens — a round number that may indicate a team, airdrop, or structured allocation wallet.

Notable holders

  • DEX liquidity pool — this address matches the PumpSwap pair address cited in the price data, holding 6.85% of supply as liquidityA6KHMiFzn9AM7VKBtVP4fZNY9bCo2jP63R9dphaW1vrq6.85%
  • Individual whale — 2.90% of supply, unclassified, likely a large early buyer or team-adjacent walletHbx5PturLVp9F7YYG18jZZSWFTNp9TTSXEJepq6pvSi32.90%
  • Individual whale — 2.56% of supply, unclassifiedASTyfSima4LLAdDgoFGkgqoKowG1LZFDr9fAQrg7iaJZ2.56%
  • Individual whale — 2.51% of supply, unclassifiedH8GLvJ89DwoeBTY3YhepLTf3VmKR4qVnskNdEZHQVDPK2.51%
  • Individual whale — 2.05% of supply, unclassifiedHLRAw55adZRYLR7YoiDxYLVu4NN92jQyzGt3zhdh3x3a2.05%

Liquidity

Liquidity

$325,710

Depth

Moderate

Slippage risk

Medium

Total liquidity of $325.71K on PumpSwap is moderate for a meme token at this market cap (~$2.49M FDV), representing approximately 13% of FDV in liquidity — a reasonable ratio. However, the 24h trading dynamics are concerning: sell volume ($94,650) is 2.16x buy volume ($43,880), and unique sellers (387) outnumber unique buyers (114) by 3.4x. This indicates net capital outflow despite the price increase, which is possible when large buy orders push price up while many smaller sellers take profits. The 24h volume spike was concentrated in two candles (18:00 and 22:00 UTC), suggesting event-driven rather than organic trading. Slippage risk is medium — $325K liquidity can absorb moderate trades but large whale exits (e.g., the 2.9% holder liquidating ~$72K worth) could cause significant price impact.

Flow (24h)

Buy volume

$43,880

Sell volume

$94,650

Net flow

Outflow

Unique buyers

114

Unique sellers

387

Supply & authorities

Total supply

999,835,501.61

FDV

$2,394,662.65

Mint authority

Active

Freeze authority

Active

The token has a total supply of ~999.84M tokens (effectively 1 billion, standard for PumpFun/PumpSwap launches). The FDV is $2.39M at current prices. The metadata shows 'mutable: false', which is a positive signal indicating the token metadata cannot be changed — reducing the risk of metadata-based manipulation. The update authority is listed as 'unknown', preventing a definitive assessment of mint and freeze authority status. Since the token was launched via PumpSwap (formerly PumpFun), it is likely that mint authority was burned at launch as part of the standard PumpFun bonding curve mechanism, but this cannot be confirmed from the provided data. Investors should verify on-chain authority status independently. The 'verified contract: true' and 'possible spam: false' flags from the metadata provider are mild positive signals.

  • Volatilityhigh

    29.26% single-day price swing with a 37.4% intraday range. Meme tokens of this type routinely experience 50–90% drawdowns. The concentrated volume spike in two candles suggests pump-and-dump dynamics are possible.

  • Liquiditymedium

    $325.71K liquidity is moderate but not deep. Large holder exits (top non-LP holders hold 2–3% each, worth $48K–$72K at current prices) could cause significant slippage and price impact.

  • Concentrationmedium

    Top 10 holders control 25.02% of supply; top 100 control 64.54%. Excluding the LP pool (6.85%), individual whale positions are relatively modest (max 2.90%), reducing single-point concentration risk somewhat.

  • Sniper Dumpmedium

    No sniper data is available, making it impossible to assess early buyer dump risk directly. The persistent 30-day holder decline and dominant sell pressure suggest ongoing distribution, which may include early buyers exiting.

  • Authoritymedium

    Update authority is 'unknown' and mint/freeze authority status cannot be confirmed from provided data. 'Mutable: false' metadata is a positive signal, but on-chain authority verification is recommended before significant investment.

Key risks

  • Persistent 30-day holder decline (-13%, -3,179 holders) with no sign of reversal
  • 68.3% sell pressure dominance — 3.27x more sell transactions than buys in 24h
  • Meme token with zero utility — entirely dependent on narrative virality and community momentum
  • Unknown mint/freeze authority status — potential rug vector if not renounced
  • Price pump appears concentrated in two high-volume candles, raising pump-and-dump concerns
  • Top 100 holders control 64.54% of supply — coordinated selling could devastate price

Mitigating factors

  • Mutable: false metadata reduces metadata manipulation risk
  • Verified contract and not flagged as spam by metadata provider
  • Liquidity of $325.71K is relatively healthy for a ~$2.49M FDV meme token
  • No single non-LP wallet holds more than 2.90% of supply — distributed whale structure
  • Genuine viral narrative with real-world emotional appeal and social media presence
  • PumpSwap launch mechanism typically burns mint authority at bonding curve completion

Suitable for

Suitable only for high-risk-tolerant speculators who can afford to lose their entire investment. Not suitable for conservative or moderate-risk investors. Position sizing should be minimal (1–3% of portfolio maximum). This is a meme token with no utility, declining holder base, and dominant sell pressure — treat as a speculative trade, not an investment.

Punch (パンチ) is a viral Japanese macaque meme token with a compelling emotional narrative, moderate liquidity, and a strong 24h price surge. However, the investment case is undermined by a persistent 30-day holder decline, overwhelming sell-side dominance, and the inherent speculative nature of meme tokens. The token is best viewed as a short-term momentum trade rather than a medium-term hold.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

The Punch macaque story continues to go viral on social media (Twitter/X, TikTok, Reddit), driving a wave of new buyers into the token. Influencer promotion amplifies the narrative, holder count stabilizes and reverses, and the token breaks above $0.00251 resistance toward $0.004–$0.006 range, implying a 2–3x from current levels.

  • Sustained viral social media momentum around the Punch macaque story
  • Influencer or KOL promotion on Crypto Twitter or Japanese social media
  • Broader Solana meme season rally lifting sentiment across the ecosystem
  • Holder count reversal from decline to growth, signaling new community formation

Base Case

The token consolidates in the $0.0019–$0.0024 range over the next 1–2 weeks, with occasional volatility spikes tied to social media activity. Holder decline continues at a moderated pace (-30 to -80 per day). The token survives but does not achieve significant new highs without a major catalyst.

  • No major new viral catalyst emerges in the near term
  • Sell pressure moderates but remains dominant
  • Liquidity remains stable around $300K–$350K
  • Holder decline rate slows but does not reverse

Bear Case

High probability

The 24h price pump fades as profit-takers continue to dominate (68.3% sell pressure). Holder decline accelerates, liquidity thins, and the token retraces to the $0.0015–$0.0018 range (pre-pump levels) or lower. Without a new viral catalyst, the meme narrative fades and the token becomes illiquid.

  • Continued holder attrition — 30 consecutive days of decline with no reversal signal
  • Sell pressure (68.3%) far exceeding buy pressure (31.7%) even during a price pump
  • Meme narrative fatigue — viral moments are inherently short-lived
  • Potential large whale exits from top non-LP holders (2–3% positions each)

Analysis details

Generated

May 4, 11:19 PM UTC

Data freshness

Data reflects on-chain state as of approximately 2026-05-04T23:00 UTC. Price and volume data is current to the most recent hourly candle.

Model confidence

Medium

Data sources

  • On-chain token metadata (Mint: NV2RYH954cTJ3ckFUpvfqaQXU4ARqqDH3562nFSpump)
  • PumpSwap pair data (A6KHMiFzn9AM7VKBtVP4fZNY9bCo2jP63R9dphaW1vrq)
  • Hourly OHLC candle data (24 candles, 2026-05-04)
  • Trading analytics (24h buy/sell volume, unique wallets)
  • Holder metrics and distribution data
  • 30-day historical holder series (daily)
  • Top 20 holder wallet data
  • Sniper analysis (not available for this token)

Limitations

  • No sniper data available — early buyer behavior and dump risk cannot be quantified
  • Update authority listed as 'unknown' — mint and freeze authority status cannot be confirmed
  • Top holder wallet classifications are inferred from context (LP address match) rather than verified on-chain labels
  • No order book depth data available — slippage estimates are approximations based on liquidity pool size
  • 30-day holder history only — longer-term trend context unavailable
  • No trading history beyond 24 hourly candles — medium-term technical analysis is limited

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Meme tokens carry extreme risk of total loss. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past price performance is not indicative of future results.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the short-term price outlook for パンチ (Punch)?

The token has surged ~29% in 24h, driven by a concentrated volume spike in the 18:00–22:00 UTC candles. Sell pressure dominates at 68.3% of volume (735 sells vs 225 buys). The price may consolidate or retrace toward the $0.00205–$0.00215 zone as profit-takers emerge. A continuation above $0.00251 would signal renewed momentum. Short-term outlook is neutral (24–72 hours), with a target range of $0.00195 to $0.00260.

Is Punch a safe investment on Solana?

Overall risk is rated high with a risk score of 7.8/100. Suitable only for high-risk-tolerant speculators who can afford to lose their entire investment. Not suitable for conservative or moderate-risk investors. Position sizing should be minimal (1–3% of portfolio maximum). This is a meme token with no utility, declining holder base, and dominant sell pressure — treat as a speculative trade, not an investment.

How are Punch holders trending?

パンチ currently has 24,855 holders and is declining (24h: -0.16, 7d: -2.9, 30d: -13). Holder count has declined every single day for the past 30 days without exception, falling from 27,925 on April 4 to 24,855 currently — a loss of 3,070 holders over the observed period. The rate of decline was steepest in mid-April (April 16–18: -189 to -259 per day) and has moderated slightly in recent days (-38 to -76 per day in early May), suggesting the decline is decelerating but not reversing. The 7d decline of -720 (-2.90%) and 30d decline of -3,179 (-13.00%) paint a clear picture of sustained holder attrition. The +9 holder gain in the last 1h is a minor positive but insufficient to signal a trend reversal. Acquisition is dominated by swaps (22,700 of 24,855 holders), indicating most holders entered via trading rather than airdrops or transfers.

What does sniper activity look like for Punch?

Snipers hold roughly 0.00% of supply with PnL state "unknown" and sell-through rate "unknown". Profit-taking risk: high.

What are the key risks of holding Punch?

Persistent 30-day holder decline (-13%, -3,179 holders) with no sign of reversal • 68.3% sell pressure dominance — 3.27x more sell transactions than buys in 24h • Meme token with zero utility — entirely dependent on narrative virality and community momentum

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