parafactual

parafactual Price Today & AI Analysis

parafactualSolanaAnalysis as of Sep 24, 2026

Price

$0.000147

+217.64% 24h · FDV $138,547

Contract

Live
CvUX4G2tzq7J3ECmNvWZLayZYV6KpgQp6SJ5K8Uvsu5g

Chain

Solana

Holders

1,227

Market cap

$138,547

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parafactual: holders, selling & liquidity

2026-09-24 01:16 UTC

Holder addresses

1,227

Top 10 supply share

19.04%

Reported liquidity

$18,422.00
How concentrated is parafactual ownership?
As of 2026-09-24 01:16 UTC, the provider reports that the top 10 holder addresses hold 19.04% of supply. It reports 1,227 holder addresses in total. Addresses are not people; pool, exchange, burn and related addresses have not been independently classified here.
Are large holders selling parafactual?
This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. As of 2026-09-24 01:16 UTC, the preceding 24-hour DEX volume was $724,415.00 in buys and $707,838.00 in sells. Those totals describe trading activity, not which holders traded. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.
Is parafactual liquidity falling?
Sampled USD liquidity changed +113.75%, from $8,618.14 (2026-09-23 23:00 UTC) to $18,421.51 (2026-09-24 01:00 UTC). This compares the earliest and latest available samples, which may cover less than 24 hours. USD changes can reflect asset prices as well as liquidity deposits or withdrawals.
Sources, observations & limitations

Source: Codex token aggregates, hourly liquidity samples and recent DEX swaps. Token aggregates retrieved 2026-09-24 01:16 UTC; the provider may lag the chain. Buy/sell totals cover the preceding 24 hours. Observations are saved with this report and do not update live. Holder addresses are not unique people. The provider’s top-10 share is not adjusted here for pools, exchanges, burn addresses or related wallets. Sniper classifications and wallet-level holder history are unavailable. Inspect token on the block explorer.

Saved liquidity observations

Observation (UTC)Liquidity (USD)
2026-09-23 23:00 UTC$8,618.14
2026-09-24 00:00 UTC$27,638.46
2026-09-24 01:00 UTC$18,421.51

Recent swap evidence

Up to 10 recent swaps returned by the provider within the preceding 24 hours. This is a sample, not all trades or a ranking of large holders.

Ask Unhosted AI about parafactual

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What's Twitter saying?Sentiment, KOL mentions, top tweetsWhale activityWho is accumulating or distributingWhat are the risks?Red flags, security, concentrationShould I buy?Bull case, bear case, entry / exit

Report snapshot

as of Sep 24, 01:17 AM UTC

FDV

$138,547

Liquidity

$18,422.00

Holders

1,227

Snipers

Not available

Risk

Very High
Loading price chart…

AI Executive Summary

Risk

Very High

Sentiment

Neutral

parafactual (CvUX4G2tzq7J3ECmNvWZLayZYV6KpgQp6SJ5K8Uvsu5g) is a very small-cap Solana token trading on PumpSwap with a fully diluted valuation of ~$138.5K and total liquidity of only ~$18.4K. The token has experienced an extreme, highly volatile price spike (+217.6% in 24h) driven by low-liquidity trading, with hourly candles showing swings of multiple hundreds of percent within a single hour. Holder base is 1,227 addresses with the top 10 holding ~19.0% of supply (current snapshot only, no history available). No mint/freeze authority data, no sniper data, and no holder-history data are available, which materially limits the depth of this analysis. This token exhibits classic characteristics of a nascent, thinly-traded pump.fun/PumpSwap-style asset with very high risk.

Key points

  • Extremely low liquidity (~$18.4K) relative to a $138.5K FDV, implying high slippage and fragility
  • 24h price move of +217.6% with intra-hour swings from ~$0.0000044 to ~$0.00044, indicating extreme volatility typical of freshly launched low-cap tokens
  • Balanced but very high raw buy/sell volume (~$724K buy vs ~$708K sell) relative to liquidity, suggesting heavy churn/speculative trading rather than organic accumulation
  • No verifiable mint/freeze authority status, no sniper data, and no holder history — key risk inputs are simply unavailable, not confirmed safe
  • Top 10 holders control ~19% of supply on a single snapshot, which is moderate but cannot be contextualized without historical trend data

AI Price Analysis

neutral

Short term · 1-24 hours

neutral

Price action over the last 3 hourly candles shows explosive, erratic moves (low of $0.0000044 to high of $0.00044 within the window), followed by a pullback to $0.000147 in the most recent candle, and a further -10% move in the last 5 minutes. This pattern is consistent with a speculative pump that is now consolidating or beginning to fade. Given the extremely thin $18.4K liquidity pool, price can swing dramatically in either direction on relatively small trade sizes, making short-term direction highly unpredictable.

Target low

$0.00007

Target high

$0.00025

Support

$0.000121 (candle 3 low), $0.0000246 (candle 2 low)

Resistance

$0.000353 (candle 3 high), $0.000439 (candle 2 high, 24h peak)

Medium term · 3-14 days

bearish

Tokens exhibiting parabolic 24h gains (+217%) on such shallow liquidity ($18.4K) with a near 50/50 buy/sell split historically tend to mean-revert sharply once speculative momentum fades, especially absent verified authority renouncement or sustained holder growth data. Without confirmation of locked/renounced authorities or organic holder accumulation, the medium-term bias skews bearish unless liquidity and holder base measurably expand.

Catalysts

  • Potential liquidity additions or CEX/DEX listing expanding depth
  • Continued social momentum via Twitter/website could sustain speculative interest
  • Any verified renouncement of mint/freeze authority could reduce perceived risk
  • A large holder exit or concentrated sell-off given ~19% top-10 concentration could trigger a fast downside move

Bullish factors

  • Strong 24h buy volume ($724.41K) narrowly outweighing sell volume ($707.84K), a 50.6/49.4 split favoring buyers
  • 3,832 unique buyers vs 3,352 unique sellers in 24h, indicating more distinct wallets are buying than selling
  • Active social presence (Twitter, website) suggests some community engagement

Bearish factors

  • Total liquidity of just $18.4K is extremely shallow relative to trading volume, creating high slippage and manipulation risk
  • Extreme intra-day volatility (candle range from $0.0000044 to $0.00044) signals a highly speculative, possibly manipulated market
  • 5m price change of -10% suggests momentum may already be reversing after the 24h spike
  • No data confirming mint/freeze authority renouncement, raising rug-pull uncertainty
  • No sniper or holder-history data to confirm organic vs. bot-driven demand

Confidence: low. Only 3 hourly candles are available, liquidity is extremely shallow, sniper and holder-history data are entirely missing, and authority status is unverified. These gaps make any directional forecast highly speculative.

parafactual call history

Full track record →

Sep 24neutral
24hpending
7dpending
30dpending

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

Chain
Solana
Contract
CvUX4G...su5g
Total Supply
942,543,541.14

Key Risks

  • Extremely shallow liquidity ($18.42K) relative to trading volume, creating high slippage and price manipulation potential
  • Parabolic 24h price spike (+217.6%) followed by a sharp intra-candle reversal, consistent with pump-and-dump dynamics
  • Unknown mint/freeze authority status leaves open the possibility of supply inflation or account freezing by the deployer
  • No sniper data available, so early-buyer/bot dump risk cannot be ruled out

Smart money & sniper coverage

Sniper classifications and wallet-level trading histories are not available in this report. Sniper concentration, profit-taking and dump risk have not been assessed.

Deep Analysis

Only 3 hourly candles are available. Candle 1 (23:00 UTC) opened at $0.00000436, spiked to a high of $0.0000712, then collapsed back to a low of $0.00000436 before closing at $0.0000365 — a classic long-wick spike-and-fade pattern. Candle 2 (00:00 UTC) opened at $0.0000365 and exploded to a high of $0.000439 (the highest print in the dataset) on volume of $1.22M, before pulling back to close at $0.000336 — a large bullish candle with a big upper wick, suggesting strong buying followed by profit-taking. Candle 3 (01:00 UTC) opened at $0.000336, but fell hard to a low of $0.000121 before recovering slightly to close at $0.000147 — a bearish reversal candle erasing most of candle 2's gains. Combined, this three-candle sequence resembles a blow-off top pattern: a parabolic spike (candle 2) immediately followed by a sharp rejection (candle 3).

Trend

Short-term

Downtrend

Medium-term

Uptrend

Zooming out, price is still up massively over 24h (+217.6%) and the medium-term trend from the start of the dataset is a strong uptrend. However, the most recent candle and the -10% move in the last 5 minutes indicate the short-term trend has turned down as the parabolic move fades.

Momentum & Volume

Momentum

Overbought

Volume trend

Increasing

Buy

51%

Sell

49%

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$0.000121 (candle 3 intraday low)

Major support

$0.0000246 (candle 2 low, near where the parabolic move began)

Immediate resistance

$0.000353 (candle 3 high)

Major resistance

$0.000439 (candle 2 high / 24h peak)

With only 3 candles of data, these levels are provisional. The $0.000439 print stands as the clear ceiling reached during the spike, while $0.0000246-$0.0000044 marks the pre-spike base. Current price ($0.000147) sits roughly in the middle of this recent range, closer to the lower support cluster, suggesting the recent pump has partially but not fully unwound.

Notable patterns

  • Spike-and-fade wick pattern on candle 1
  • Parabolic blow-off candle with large upper wick on candle 2
  • Bearish reversal / rejection candle on candle 3 erasing most of the prior gain
  • Sharp -10% move within the last 5 minutes signaling potential continued downside

Liquidity

Liquidity

$18,422.00

Depth

Shallow

Slippage risk

High

Total liquidity of just $18.42K is extremely shallow, especially relative to the 24h trading volume of over $1.43M combined (buy + sell), implying that the pool is being turned over roughly 78x its liquidity depth in a single day. This mismatch between volume and liquidity is a strong indicator of high slippage risk and potential for sharp, manipulable price swings — consistent with the erratic OHLC data observed. Buy and sell volumes are nearly balanced ($724.41K vs $707.84K, 50.6%/49.4%), and unique buyers (3,832) modestly exceed unique sellers (3,352), suggesting broad-based two-sided speculative activity rather than a one-sided dump or pump by a small group. However, with such thin liquidity, even modest net selling pressure could cause outsized price declines.

Supply & authorities

Total supply

942,543,541.14

FDV

$138,547

Mint authority

Not available

Freeze authority

Not available

Mint and freeze authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations. Metadata update authority does not establish either permission.

  • Volatilityhigh

    24h price change of +217.6% with intra-hour swings between $0.0000044 and $0.000439 (a ~100x range within the visible candle window) demonstrates extreme volatility. A further -10% move occurred in just the last 5 minutes.

  • Liquidityhigh

    Total liquidity is only $18.42K against 24h volumes exceeding $1.43M combined, indicating the pool can be easily moved by moderate-sized trades, producing high slippage and fragility.

  • Concentrationmedium

    Top 10 holders control ~19.04% of supply based on a single current snapshot among 1,227 holder addresses. No historical trend or wallet classification data exists, so this is a point-in-time observation only, not evidence of increasing or decreasing concentration.

  • Sniper DumpNot assessed

    Sniper classifications and wallet trading histories are unavailable.

  • AuthorityNot assessed

    Contract or authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations.

Key risks

  • Extremely shallow liquidity ($18.42K) relative to trading volume, creating high slippage and price manipulation potential
  • Parabolic 24h price spike (+217.6%) followed by a sharp intra-candle reversal, consistent with pump-and-dump dynamics
  • Unknown mint/freeze authority status leaves open the possibility of supply inflation or account freezing by the deployer
  • No sniper data available, so early-buyer/bot dump risk cannot be ruled out
  • No holder history available, preventing assessment of whether the current holder base is growing, stable, or shrinking
  • Small FDV (~$138.5K) and low holder count (1,227) typical of an early-stage, high-risk speculative token

Mitigating factors

  • Buy and sell volumes are nearly balanced (50.6%/49.4%) with more unique buyers (3,832) than sellers (3,352) in the last 24h, suggesting broad participation rather than a single-actor dump
  • Top-10 concentration of ~19% is not extreme in isolation compared to many newly launched tokens
  • Project has visible social presence (Twitter, website), providing at least some public accountability channel

Suitable for

Suitable only for highly risk-tolerant, experienced speculative traders who understand and accept the possibility of total capital loss. Not appropriate for risk-averse investors, those seeking stable exposure, or anyone unable to tolerate extreme intraday volatility and thin-liquidity slippage. Position sizing should be minimal given the very high risk score.

parafactual is a micro-cap, highly volatile Solana token trading on PumpSwap with a tiny liquidity pool ($18.42K) and a recent parabolic price spike (+217.6% in 24h) that has already shown signs of reversing. Key risk data (mint/freeze authority, sniper activity, holder history) is unavailable, leaving significant blind spots. Any position should be viewed as a high-risk speculative trade, not an investment grounded in verified fundamentals.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

If buying momentum persists and new liquidity/holders continue entering (3,832 unique buyers in 24h vs 3,352 sellers), the token could retest or exceed its recent high of $0.000439, especially if social media attention (Twitter/website) continues to drive speculative inflows.

  • Continued net-positive unique buyer counts sustaining upward price pressure
  • Additional liquidity being added to reduce slippage and stabilize price
  • Positive social/community momentum translating into sustained demand
  • No adverse authority action (e.g., mint dilution) materializing

Base Case

Price likely remains highly volatile and range-bound between the recent support (~$0.000121) and resistance (~$0.000353-$0.000439) levels in the near term, with elevated slippage on any meaningful trade size, as the market digests the initial pump and searches for equilibrium.

  • No major new liquidity injections or authority actions occur in the near term
  • Trading remains dominated by short-term speculators given the balanced 50.6/49.4 buy/sell split
  • Volume continues to be significant relative to the small liquidity base, sustaining volatility

Bear Case

High probability

Given the extremely thin liquidity, parabolic run-up, and immediate sharp reversal already visible in candle 3 (fall from $0.000439 high to $0.000121 low) plus a further -10% move in the last 5 minutes, the token could rapidly retrace most or all of its 24h gains, potentially falling back toward pre-spike levels near $0.0000044-$0.0000246.

  • Unverified mint/freeze authority creating potential for supply-side shocks
  • Shallow $18.42K liquidity amplifying any sell pressure into steep price declines
  • Classic pump-and-dump candle pattern (blow-off top followed by rejection) already visible in the data
  • Absence of sniper/holder-history data preventing confirmation of organic, sustainable demand

Analysis details

Generated

Sep 24, 01:17 AM UTC

Saved observation

2026-09-24 01:16 UTC

Model confidence

Low

Data sources

  • On-chain token metadata (mint, decimals, supply, FDV)
  • PumpSwap price feed and pair data
  • Hourly OHLC candle data (3 most recent candles)
  • 24h trading analytics (buy/sell volume, buyer/seller counts)
  • Codex holder aggregates (current snapshot: holder count, top-10 concentration)
  • Sniper analysis endpoint (returned no data)

Limitations

  • Only 3 hourly OHLC candles were available, severely limiting technical trend analysis
  • No sniper data was available, preventing assessment of early-buyer/bot dump risk
  • No holder history (24h/7d/30d growth) was available, preventing assessment of accumulation or distribution trends
  • Mint authority, freeze authority, and contract verification status are all unknown, leaving a critical rug-risk gap
  • Top-100 holder concentration was not provided, limiting whale distribution analysis to only the top 10
  • Total liquidity figure is a single point-in-time value with no historical liquidity trend for context

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is generated from limited, partially incomplete on-chain and market data that may be inaccurate, incomplete, or manipulated by adversarial actors, including the token's own creators. Cryptocurrency trading, especially in low-liquidity, newly launched tokens, carries a substantial risk of total loss. Always conduct independent due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions

How concentrated is parafactual ownership?

As of 2026-09-24 01:16 UTC, the provider reports that the top 10 holder addresses hold 19.04% of supply. It reports 1,227 holder addresses in total. Addresses are not people; pool, exchange, burn and related addresses have not been independently classified here.

Are large holders selling parafactual?

This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. As of 2026-09-24 01:16 UTC, the preceding 24-hour DEX volume was $724,415.00 in buys and $707,838.00 in sells. Those totals describe trading activity, not which holders traded. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.

Is parafactual liquidity falling?

Sampled USD liquidity changed +113.75%, from $8,618.14 (2026-09-23 23:00 UTC) to $18,421.51 (2026-09-24 01:00 UTC). This compares the earliest and latest available samples, which may cover less than 24 hours. USD changes can reflect asset prices as well as liquidity deposits or withdrawals.

What is the short-term price outlook for parafactual (parafactual)?

Price action over the last 3 hourly candles shows explosive, erratic moves (low of $0.0000044 to high of $0.00044 within the window), followed by a pullback to $0.000147 in the most recent candle, and a further -10% move in the last 5 minutes. This pattern is consistent with a speculative pump that is now consolidating or beginning to fade. Given the extremely thin $18.4K liquidity pool, price can swing dramatically in either direction on relatively small trade sizes, making short-term direction highly unpredictable. Short-term outlook is neutral (1-24 hours), with a target range of $0.00007 to $0.00025.

Is parafactual a safe investment on Solana?

The AI assessment rates overall risk as very high with a risk score of 85/100. Suitable only for highly risk-tolerant, experienced speculative traders who understand and accept the possibility of total capital loss. Not appropriate for risk-averse investors, those seeking stable exposure, or anyone unable to tolerate extreme intraday volatility and thin-liquidity slippage. Position sizing should be minimal given the very high risk score.

What are the key risks of holding parafactual?

Extremely shallow liquidity ($18.42K) relative to trading volume, creating high slippage and price manipulation potential • Parabolic 24h price spike (+217.6%) followed by a sharp intra-candle reversal, consistent with pump-and-dump dynamics • Unknown mint/freeze authority status leaves open the possibility of supply inflation or account freezing by the deployer

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