conviction

conviction Price Today & AI Analysis

convictionSolanaAnalysis as of May 3, 2026

Price

$0.052515

FDV $2,330

Contract

Live
BeTkvw4KtPdMxqVBoPcMXvfsqhZFFWyMPSqqmUFrpump

Chain

Solana

Holders

153

Market cap

$2,330

More tokens on Solana

BISONBISONThe Charging Bison$0.054715+0.0%MC $4.7KtechnotechnoTechnoblade$0.051849+0.0%MC $1.8KMODUMODUMODU$0.052615+0.0%MC $2.6KPIPOPIPOpipo$0.052655+0.0%MC $2.6KACTCREWACTCREWAct R: The Red Crew Prophecy$0.052304+0.0%MC $2.3KSTONKSTONKSTONK$0.3161-4.3%MC $260.36M

conviction: holders, selling & liquidity

2026-05-03 16:19 UTC

Holder addresses

715

Top 10 supply share

Not available

Reported liquidity

Not available
How concentrated is conviction ownership?
Top-10 ownership concentration is not available in this report. The saved holder count is 715 addresses (2026-05-03 16:19 UTC). A holder count alone does not establish how supply is distributed.
Are large holders selling conviction?
This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. A complete buy/sell volume observation is not available in the saved inputs. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.
Is conviction liquidity falling?
Liquidity is not available in the saved inputs. At least two timestamped liquidity observations are needed to establish a change; this report does not have them.
Sources, observations & limitations

Source: inputs saved with the report generated 2026-05-03 16:19 UTC. Original provider retrieval times and historical samples were not recorded. Legacy zero placeholders are treated as unavailable. Holder addresses are not unique people. The provider’s top-10 share is not adjusted here for pools, exchanges, burn addresses or related wallets. Sniper classifications and wallet-level holder history are unavailable. Inspect token on the block explorer.

Recent swap evidence

Swap evidence is unavailable for this report.

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Report snapshot

as of May 3, 04:19 PM UTC

FDV

$123,500

Liquidity

Not available

Holders

715

Snipers

Not available

Risk

Very High
Loading price chart…

AI Executive Summary

Risk

Very High

Sentiment

Bearish

conviction (CONVICTION) is a Pump.fun-launched Solana memecoin (mint: BeTkvw4KtPdMxqVBoPcMXvfsqhZFFWyMPSqqmUFrpump) with a total supply of 1 billion tokens and a fully diluted valuation of ~$123,500. The token has experienced an explosive 245% price surge in the past 24 hours, rising from ~$0.0000349 to ~$0.0001235. Despite the price spike, sell pressure dominates heavily (69.3% sell vs 30.7% buy), total reported liquidity is $0.00 on the analytics feed (a data anomaly — the PumpSwap pair exists), and holder count has dropped sharply by 1,217 wallets. The token is unverified, has no description, and authority status is unknown, placing it firmly in the high-risk speculative category.

Key points

  • Explosive 245% 24h price pump on very low FDV (~$123K)
  • Severe sell-side dominance: 69.3% sell pressure with 6,126 sells vs 3,888 buys
  • Holder count collapsed by 1,217 wallets (from ~1,932 to 715) coinciding with the pump
  • Top 10 holders control 32.99% of supply; top 100 control 72.34%
  • 20 identified snipers with mixed but majority-profitable PnL, indicating early buyer exit risk
  • Zero liquidity reported on analytics feed — extreme slippage and exit risk

AI Price Analysis

bearish

Short term · 1–24 hours

bearish

The token has already pumped 245% in 24h and is showing severe sell-side dominance (69.3% sell pressure, 6,126 sells vs 3,888 buys). The most recent hourly candle (16:00 UTC) opened at $0.0000952 and closed at $0.0001213, forming a strong bullish candle, but the prior candle (15:00 UTC) showed a massive wick from $0.0000199 to $0.0001187, indicating extreme volatility and potential exhaustion. With holder count collapsing by 1,217 and liquidity near zero, a sharp retracement is the most probable short-term outcome.

Target low

$0.000040

Target high

$0.000135

Support

$0.0000952 (candle [1] open / prior close), $0.0000815 (candle [1] low), $0.0000199 (candle [2] absolute low)

Resistance

$0.0001241 (candle [1] high), $0.0001187 (candle [2] high), $0.0001350 (psychological round level above current price)

Medium term · 3–14 days

bearish

Historical holder data shows the token was completely stagnant at 1,932 holders for the entire 30-day period prior to this pump, with zero net change daily. This suggests the pump is likely a coordinated or organic spike rather than sustained organic growth. Without new catalysts, liquidity, or community development, the token is likely to retrace toward pre-pump levels (~$0.000020–$0.000034).

Catalysts

  • Any new exchange listing or liquidity injection could sustain price
  • Broader Solana memecoin market rally could provide tailwind
  • Sniper and whale profit-taking will likely suppress price
  • Continued holder exodus would accelerate decline

Bullish factors

  • 245% 24h price surge demonstrates strong speculative momentum
  • 5-minute price change of +33.5% suggests very recent buying activity
  • Token is on PumpSwap (BEgzR23Qfgu178g1CaHaZ9RjghbbsdjEb7xTpqvuWByG), providing some DEX infrastructure
  • Some snipers still holding (e.g., sniper [4] holds $17, sniper [8] holds $35) suggesting not all early buyers have exited

Bearish factors

  • 69.3% sell pressure dominates 24h trading ($226.3K sells vs $100.3K buys)
  • Holder count dropped by 1,217 wallets — mass exodus coinciding with the pump
  • Total liquidity reported as $0.00 — extreme exit risk
  • Token was completely stagnant for 30 days prior to this pump (zero holder growth)
  • Unverified contract, no description, unknown authority status
  • Multiple snipers have already taken significant profits (e.g., sniper [15] sold $3,359 at +47%, sniper [10] sold $1,541 at +87.2%)

Confidence: low. Only 2 hourly OHLC candles are available, liquidity data is reported as $0.00 (possible data gap), holder metrics show anomalous -170% change, and the token has no verified contract or description. The extreme volatility and data inconsistencies make confident price prediction impossible.

Token Info

Chain
Solana
Contract
BeTkvw...pump
Total Supply
1,000,000,000 (1 billion)

Key Risks

  • Near-zero liquidity makes exit extremely difficult and price highly manipulable
  • 69.3% sell pressure with 2,300 sellers vs 1,885 buyers — active distribution
  • Holder count collapsed 63% (1,932 → 715) coinciding with the pump — mass exodus
  • Snipers have largely exited at profit, leaving retail holding elevated prices

Smart money & sniper coverage

Sniper classifications and wallet-level trading histories are not available in this report. Sniper concentration, profit-taking and dump risk have not been assessed.

Deep Analysis

Only 2 hourly candles are available. Candle [2] (15:00 UTC): O=$0.0000339, H=$0.0001187, L=$0.0000199, C=$0.0000952 — a massive bullish candle with a long lower wick, indicating a sharp reversal from extreme lows, but also high volatility and potential manipulation. Candle [1] (16:00 UTC): O=$0.0000952, H=$0.0001241, L=$0.0000815, C=$0.0001213 — a strong bullish continuation candle closing near the high, but with a lower wick suggesting some selling pressure. The two-candle sequence shows higher highs ($0.0001187 → $0.0001241) and higher lows ($0.0000199 → $0.0000815), technically an uptrend, but the context of a 245% pump in 2 hours on near-zero liquidity makes this pattern unreliable.

Trend

Short-term

Uptrend

Medium-term

Sideways

Short-term trend is technically upward based on the 2 available candles (higher highs and higher lows). Medium-term trend is sideways-to-bearish given 30 days of complete stagnation at 1,932 holders and zero price movement prior to this pump event.

Momentum & Volume

Momentum

Overbought

Volume trend

Decreasing

Buy

31%

Sell

69%

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$0.0000952 (candle [1] open, prior close)

Major support

$0.0000199 (candle [2] absolute low — the pump origin)

Immediate resistance

$0.0001241 (candle [1] high)

Major resistance

$0.0001187 (candle [2] high — first resistance test)

Immediate support sits at the candle [1] open of $0.0000952. A break below $0.0000815 (candle [1] low) would signal bearish reversal. Major resistance is the candle [1] high of $0.0001241. The current price of $0.0001235 is just below this resistance, making a breakout or rejection the key near-term decision point.

Notable patterns

  • Two-candle bullish sequence with higher highs and higher lows — technically bullish but context-dependent
  • Candle [2] has an extremely long lower wick relative to body — potential hammer/reversal signal from lows
  • Candle [1] closes near its high — bullish momentum continuation signal
  • Volume declining sharply from candle [2] to candle [1] ($247K → $50K) — weakening momentum
  • Classic pump-and-dump volume profile: explosive initial candle followed by declining follow-through

Liquidity

Liquidity

Not available

Depth

Not assessed

Slippage risk

Not assessed

Liquidity depth and slippage risk cannot be assessed without a liquidity observation.

Supply & authorities

Total supply

1,000,000,000 (1 billion)

FDV

$123,500.29

Mint authority

Not available

Freeze authority

Not available

Mint and freeze authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations. Metadata update authority does not establish either permission.

  • Volatilityhigh

    245% price surge in under 2 hours on a micro-cap token with near-zero liquidity. 5-minute price change of +33.5% confirms extreme ongoing volatility. Only 2 OHLC candles available, both showing massive price swings.

  • LiquidityNot assessed

    A liquidity observation is not available in the saved inputs.

  • ConcentrationNot assessed

    Ownership concentration cannot be assessed without a measured supply distribution.

  • Sniper DumpNot assessed

    Sniper classifications and wallet trading histories are unavailable.

  • AuthorityNot assessed

    Contract or authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations.

Key risks

  • Near-zero liquidity makes exit extremely difficult and price highly manipulable
  • 69.3% sell pressure with 2,300 sellers vs 1,885 buyers — active distribution
  • Holder count collapsed 63% (1,932 → 715) coinciding with the pump — mass exodus
  • Snipers have largely exited at profit, leaving retail holding elevated prices
  • Unverified contract with unknown authority status — rug risk cannot be ruled out
  • Token was completely stagnant for 30 days prior to pump — no organic growth history
  • No description, no verified utility, pure speculative memecoin

Mitigating factors

  • Token metadata is immutable (Mutable: false) — metadata cannot be changed post-launch
  • Pump.fun graduation to PumpSwap provides some DEX infrastructure
  • FDV of ~$123K is low enough that a small amount of buying pressure can move price significantly (double-edged)
  • Some snipers still hold positions, suggesting not all early buyers have fully exited
  • Token is not flagged as spam by the data provider

Suitable for

Suitable ONLY for highly experienced, risk-tolerant speculators who understand memecoin dynamics and can afford to lose 100% of their investment. Not suitable for retail investors, long-term holders, or anyone without deep familiarity with Solana micro-cap token risks. Position sizing should be minimal (well under 1% of portfolio) if any exposure is taken.

conviction (CONVICTION) is a high-risk Pump.fun memecoin that has experienced a violent 245% pump in under 2 hours. The on-chain data paints a clear distribution picture: snipers have largely exited at profit, holders have collapsed by 63%, sell pressure dominates 2:1, and liquidity is near zero. The base case is a sharp retracement. Any bull case requires new catalysts that are not currently visible in the data.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

Sustained momentum and community formation: If the 5-minute +33.5% move represents genuine new buying interest and the token attracts viral social media attention (it has Twitter and website links), a second leg up is possible. The low FDV (~$123K) means even modest capital inflows could push price significantly higher.

  • Viral social media momentum driving new retail buyers
  • Broader Solana memecoin market rally lifting all micro-caps
  • New liquidity injection into the PumpSwap pool
  • Whale accumulation at current levels rather than distribution

Base Case

Gradual retracement to consolidation: Price pulls back 40–60% from the pump high as sell pressure continues, settling in the $0.000050–$0.000080 range. Token may stabilize if a small community forms around the 'conviction' narrative, but without new catalysts, it likely fades into obscurity.

  • Some residual buying interest from the 1,885 unique buyers in the last 24h
  • PumpSwap pair remains active with minimal but non-zero liquidity
  • No additional sniper or whale dumps beyond what has already occurred
  • Broader Solana market remains stable

Bear Case

High probability

Pump-and-dump collapse: The token retraces 70–90% from current levels as remaining holders exit, snipers dump residual positions, and no new buyers emerge. Price returns to pre-pump levels of ~$0.000020–$0.000034.

  • Continued 69.3% sell pressure with no buy-side catalyst
  • Near-zero liquidity accelerating price decline on any sell pressure
  • Holder count already collapsed 63% — remaining holders may continue to exit
  • No verified utility, description, or community infrastructure to sustain interest
  • Snipers and whales distributing into any price strength

Analysis details

Generated

May 3, 04:19 PM UTC

Saved observation

2026-05-03 16:19 UTC

Model confidence

Low

Data sources

  • Moralis on-chain token metadata API
  • PumpSwap DEX pair data (BEgzR23Qfgu178g1CaHaZ9RjghbbsdjEb7xTpqvuWByG)
  • Hourly OHLC candle data (2 candles, 15:00–16:00 UTC May 3 2026)
  • 24h trading analytics (buy/sell volume, unique wallets)
  • Top 20 holder snapshot
  • 30-day daily historical holder series
  • Sniper analysis (first 1,000 blocks, 20 snipers)

Limitations

  • Only 2 OHLC candles available — insufficient for robust technical analysis
  • Total liquidity reported as $0.00 — likely a data feed anomaly, actual liquidity unknown
  • Sniper sniped amounts and balances are 'unknown' for all 20 snipers — concentration % cannot be precisely calculated
  • Mint and freeze authority status unknown — rug risk cannot be fully assessed
  • Update authority listed as 'unknown' — cannot confirm token security
  • 30-day holder history shows zero change for entire period prior to pump — may reflect data artifact
  • Holder change of -1,217 (-170%) is mathematically anomalous (cannot lose 170% of holders) — likely a reporting artifact
  • No price history beyond 2 hours — medium-term technical analysis is speculative
  • Token has no description or verified utility — fundamental analysis not possible

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments, especially micro-cap memecoins, carry extreme risk including total loss of capital. The data provided contains multiple anomalies and gaps that limit analytical confidence. Never invest more than you can afford to lose. This report is generated from on-chain data snapshots and may not reflect real-time market conditions.

Frequently Asked Questions

How concentrated is conviction ownership?

Top-10 ownership concentration is not available in this report. The saved holder count is 715 addresses (2026-05-03 16:19 UTC). A holder count alone does not establish how supply is distributed.

Are large holders selling conviction?

This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. A complete buy/sell volume observation is not available in the saved inputs. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.

Is conviction liquidity falling?

Liquidity is not available in the saved inputs. At least two timestamped liquidity observations are needed to establish a change; this report does not have them.

What is the short-term price outlook for conviction (conviction)?

The token has already pumped 245% in 24h and is showing severe sell-side dominance (69.3% sell pressure, 6,126 sells vs 3,888 buys). The most recent hourly candle (16:00 UTC) opened at $0.0000952 and closed at $0.0001213, forming a strong bullish candle, but the prior candle (15:00 UTC) showed a massive wick from $0.0000199 to $0.0001187, indicating extreme volatility and potential exhaustion. With holder count collapsing by 1,217 and liquidity near zero, a sharp retracement is the most probable short-term outcome. Short-term outlook is bearish (1–24 hours), with a target range of $0.000040 to $0.000135.

Is conviction a safe investment on Solana?

The AI assessment rates overall risk as very high with a risk score of 9.1/100. Suitable ONLY for highly experienced, risk-tolerant speculators who understand memecoin dynamics and can afford to lose 100% of their investment. Not suitable for retail investors, long-term holders, or anyone without deep familiarity with Solana micro-cap token risks. Position sizing should be minimal (well under 1% of portfolio) if any exposure is taken.

What are the key risks of holding conviction?

Near-zero liquidity makes exit extremely difficult and price highly manipulable • 69.3% sell pressure with 2,300 sellers vs 1,885 buyers — active distribution • Holder count collapsed 63% (1,932 → 715) coinciding with the pump — mass exodus

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