conviction Prediction
BeTkvw4KtPdMxqVBoPcMXvfsqhZFFWyMPSqqmUFrpump
$0.00012350
FDV $123,500
$123,500
$0
715
36
Very High
AI Executive Summary
conviction (CONVICTION) is a Pump.fun-launched Solana memecoin (mint: BeTkvw4KtPdMxqVBoPcMXvfsqhZFFWyMPSqqmUFrpump) with a total supply of 1 billion tokens and a fully diluted valuation of ~$123,500. The token has experienced an explosive 245% price surge in the past 24 hours, rising from ~$0.0000349 to ~$0.0001235. Despite the price spike, sell pressure dominates heavily (69.3% sell vs 30.7% buy), total reported liquidity is $0.00 on the analytics feed (a data anomaly — the PumpSwap pair exists), and holder count has dropped sharply by 1,217 wallets. The token is unverified, has no description, and authority status is unknown, placing it firmly in the high-risk speculative category.
Price Prediction
Short term
The token has already pumped 245% in 24h and is showing severe sell-side dominance (69.3% sell pressure, 6,126 sells vs 3,888 buys). The most recent hourly candle (16:00 UTC) opened at $0.0000952 and closed at $0.0001213, forming a strong bullish candle, but the prior candle (15:00 UTC) showed a massive wick from $0.0000199 to $0.0001187, indicating extreme volatility and potential exhaustion. With holder count collapsing by 1,217 and liquidity near zero, a sharp retracement is the most probable short-term outcome.
Resistance: $0.0001241 (candle [1] high), $0.0001187 (candle [2] high), $0.0001350 (psychological round level above current price)
Medium term
Historical holder data shows the token was completely stagnant at 1,932 holders for the entire 30-day period prior to this pump, with zero net change daily. This suggests the pump is likely a coordinated or organic spike rather than sustained organic growth. Without new catalysts, liquidity, or community development, the token is likely to retrace toward pre-pump levels (~$0.000020–$0.000034).
Catalysts
- Any new exchange listing or liquidity injection could sustain price
- Broader Solana memecoin market rally could provide tailwind
- Sniper and whale profit-taking will likely suppress price
- Continued holder exodus would accelerate decline
Bullish factors
- 245% 24h price surge demonstrates strong speculative momentum
- 5-minute price change of +33.5% suggests very recent buying activity
- Token is on PumpSwap (BEgzR23Qfgu178g1CaHaZ9RjghbbsdjEb7xTpqvuWByG), providing some DEX infrastructure
- Some snipers still holding (e.g., sniper [4] holds $17, sniper [8] holds $35) suggesting not all early buyers have exited
Bearish factors
- 69.3% sell pressure dominates 24h trading ($226.3K sells vs $100.3K buys)
- Holder count dropped by 1,217 wallets — mass exodus coinciding with the pump
- Total liquidity reported as $0.00 — extreme exit risk
- Token was completely stagnant for 30 days prior to this pump (zero holder growth)
- Unverified contract, no description, unknown authority status
- Multiple snipers have already taken significant profits (e.g., sniper [15] sold $3,359 at +47%, sniper [10] sold $1,541 at +87.2%)
Deep Analysis
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Token Info
Key Risks
Smart Money & Sniper Analysis
Of 20 identified snipers, the majority have already sold their positions, many at significant profit. Realized PnL percentages range from -25.5% (sniper [13]) to +87.2% (sniper [10]), with the majority of snipers showing positive realized PnL. This indicates smart money entered early and has largely exited into the current pump, leaving retail buyers holding the bag. Only 3 snipers appear to still hold balances ($17, $35, $0 respectively), suggesting the sniper cohort is nearly fully distributed.
AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.
Sniper details
Sniper supply amounts are unknown; however, of 20 identified snipers, at least 15 have sold meaningful amounts. Notable exits: sniper [15] sold $3,359 (+47% PnL), sniper [10] sold $1,541 (+87.2%), sniper [3] sold $1,613 (+36.8%), sniper [18] sold $515 (+54.3%), sniper [17] sold $792 (+33.6%). Only snipers [4], [7], [8] appear to still hold balances.
Early buyers (snipers) are predominantly in profit and have largely exited. The high sell-through rate among snipers, combined with the 69.3% overall sell pressure and 1,217-wallet holder exodus, strongly suggests this is a distribution event where early/smart money is selling to late retail entrants.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the price prediction for conviction (conviction)?
The token has already pumped 245% in 24h and is showing severe sell-side dominance (69.3% sell pressure, 6,126 sells vs 3,888 buys). The most recent hourly candle (16:00 UTC) opened at $0.0000952 and closed at $0.0001213, forming a strong bullish candle, but the prior candle (15:00 UTC) showed a massive wick from $0.0000199 to $0.0001187, indicating extreme volatility and potential exhaustion. With holder count collapsing by 1,217 and liquidity near zero, a sharp retracement is the most probable short-term outcome. Short-term outlook is bearish (1–24 hours), with a target range of $0.000040 to $0.000135.
Is conviction a safe investment on Solana?
Overall risk is rated very_high with a risk score of 9.1/100. Suitable ONLY for highly experienced, risk-tolerant speculators who understand memecoin dynamics and can afford to lose 100% of their investment. Not suitable for retail investors, long-term holders, or anyone without deep familiarity with Solana micro-cap token risks. Position sizing should be minimal (well under 1% of portfolio) if any exposure is taken.
How are conviction holders trending?
conviction currently has 715 holders and is declining (24h: -1217, 7d: -1217, 30d: -1217). The historical holder data shows a completely static 1,932 holders for the entire 30-day period from April 3 to May 2, 2026 — zero net change on every single day. Then, coinciding with the May 3 pump event, holders collapsed by 1,217 wallets (-63%) to 715. This is highly anomalous and suggests either: (1) a mass exit/sell-off triggered by the pump, (2) a data reporting issue where wallets that sold during the pump are now being counted as non-holders, or (3) the 30-day static data reflects a snapshot artifact. Regardless, the current holder count of 715 with 700 acquired via swap and 15 via transfer, combined with the distribution breakdown (161 whales, 89 sharks, 336 dolphins, 118 fish, 36 octopus), paints a picture of a highly concentrated, declining holder base.
What does sniper activity look like for conviction?
Snipers hold roughly 0.00% of supply with PnL state "mostly_in_profit" and sell-through rate "high". Profit-taking risk: high.
What are the key risks of holding conviction?
Near-zero liquidity makes exit extremely difficult and price highly manipulable • 69.3% sell pressure with 2,300 sellers vs 1,885 buyers — active distribution • Holder count collapsed 63% (1,932 → 715) coinciding with the pump — mass exodus
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