ALPACAS

Do Alpacas Really Wear Socks? Price Today & AI Analysis

ALPACASSolanaAnalysis as of Jun 20, 2026

Price

$0.056020

+9.94% 24h · FDV $6,019

Contract

Live
AE7gr74vQqdYhMEGQCdZRZjHn5TovkCJbWwirgDkpump

Chain

Solana

Holders

666

Market cap

$6,019

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What's Twitter saying?Sentiment, KOL mentions, top tweetsWhale activityWho is accumulating or distributingWhat are the risks?Red flags, security, concentrationShould I buy?Bull case, bear case, entry / exit

Report snapshot

as of Jun 20, 10:47 PM UTC

FDV

$182,427

Liquidity

$47,700

Holders

191

Snipers

0

Risk

Very High

AI Executive Summary

Risk

Very High

Sentiment

Bearish

ALPACAS (Do Alpacas Really Wear Socks?) is an extremely new PumpSwap meme token on Solana (mint: AE7gr74vQqdYhMEGQCdZRZjHn5TovkCJbWwirgDkpump) with a total supply of ~1B tokens and a fully diluted valuation of ~$182K–$193K. The token sat dormant with only 2 holders from late May through mid-June 2026, then exploded to 191 holders within roughly 48 hours. The 24h price change of +1,057% is accompanied by extreme sell pressure (81% of volume is sells), shallow liquidity ($47.7K), and no verified contract, social links, or description. This is a very high-risk, speculative micro-cap meme token in its earliest stage.

Key points

  • Extreme 24h price surge of +1,057% from a near-zero base
  • Token was dormant for ~30 days with only 2 holders before sudden activation on June 18
  • Holder base grew 99% in 7 days (from 2 to 191), almost entirely via swaps (183/191)
  • Severe sell-side dominance: 81% sell pressure, 785 sells vs 265 buys in 24h
  • No social links, no description, unverified contract — minimal transparency

AI Price Analysis

bearish

Short term · 1–24 hours

bearish

The token is trading at ~$0.000182 after a +1,057% 24h pump. OHLC data shows the price peaked near $0.000193 (candle [1] low field appears inverted — likely a data anomaly; the highest close observed is ~$0.000053 in candle [2]) with the most recent candles showing a sharp spike and partial retracement. Sell pressure at 81% and 785 sells vs 265 buys strongly suggest continued distribution. Short-term direction is bearish with high probability of mean reversion toward the $0.000030–$0.000050 range.

Target low

$0.000020

Target high

$0.000053

Support

$0.000032 (repeated open/close cluster in candles [8]–[11]), $0.000022 (candle [16] level), $0.000019 (candle [17] base)

Resistance

$0.000053 (candle [2]/[3] close/high cluster), $0.000063 (candle [3] high), $0.000081 (candle [9] low — likely spike high)

Medium term · 1–4 weeks

bearish

Without social presence, verified contract, or utility, sustaining price above pump levels is unlikely. The token's 30-day dormancy followed by a sudden pump-and-distribute pattern is a classic low-cap meme lifecycle. Unless new catalysts emerge (listings, community growth, social media traction), price is likely to retrace toward pre-pump levels near $0.000019–$0.000022.

Catalysts

  • Any social media viral moment or influencer mention could re-ignite buying
  • New exchange listing or aggregator visibility
  • Broader Solana meme coin market rally
  • Failure to develop community would accelerate decline

Bullish factors

  • Explosive 24h price appreciation of +1,057% signals strong initial speculative interest
  • Holder count grew from 2 to 191 in ~48 hours, showing rapid community formation
  • PumpSwap listing provides accessible on-chain liquidity
  • Mutable=false metadata reduces one vector of rug risk

Bearish factors

  • 81% sell pressure (67.94K sell volume vs 15.92K buy volume in 24h)
  • 785 sells vs only 265 buys — sellers outnumber buyers nearly 3:1
  • No social links, no description, unverified contract — near-zero transparency
  • Token was dormant for ~30 days with only 2 holders before sudden activation
  • Shallow liquidity of only $47.7K makes large exits highly impactful
  • Top holder concentration data unavailable — distribution unknown
  • FDV of ~$182K–$193K is entirely speculative with no fundamental backing

Confidence: low. Confidence is low due to the token's extreme youth (effectively launched June 18, 2026), absence of fundamental data (no description, no socials, no verified contract), highly anomalous OHLC data (some candles show L > H which may indicate data feed issues), and the unpredictable nature of micro-cap meme tokens. The 1,057% 24h move makes any price target highly speculative.

ALPACAS call history

Full track record →

Jun 20bearish
24h+77.0%
7d+142.5%
30d-64.6%

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

Chain
Solana
Contract
AE7gr7...pump
Total Supply
999,999,848.945102 ALPACAS

Key Risks

  • 30-day dormancy followed by sudden pump is a classic pre-coordinated launch pattern
  • 81% sell pressure with 320 sellers vs 80 buyers — active distribution in progress
  • No social links, no description, unverified contract — near-zero project transparency
  • Top holder concentration data unavailable — cannot assess true distribution

Smart Money & Sniper Analysis

low confidenceHigh risk

No sniper analysis data was provided for ALPACAS. Smart money signals cannot be derived from sniper metrics. What can be observed from trading analytics: 320 unique sellers vs 80 unique buyers in 24h (4:1 ratio), with sell volume ($67.94K) dwarfing buy volume ($15.92K). This strongly suggests early holders and/or insiders are distributing into retail buying interest generated by the pump. The token's 30-day dormancy with only 2 holders before activation is a significant red flag — those original 2 holders likely accumulated at near-zero cost and are now selling into the pump.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Sniper details

Sniper concentration
0.00%
PnL state
Unknown
Sell-through rate
Unknown
Profit-taking risk
high

No sniper data available for this token.

The original 2 holders who held the token during its 30-day dormancy (May 21 – June 17) are almost certainly in significant profit given the +1,057% price appreciation. Their sell behavior is the most likely driver of the 81% sell pressure observed. Early buyers from the June 18 activation event (when holders jumped from 2 to 62) are also likely in profit and may be distributing.

Deep Analysis

17 hourly candles are available spanning June 19–20, 2026. Note: several candles exhibit L > H values (e.g., candle [1]: H=0.0000527, L=0.0001933; candle [8]: H=0.0000322, L=0.0000612; candle [9]: H=0.0000322, L=0.0000810), which are physically impossible and suggest a data feed anomaly where High and Low fields may be swapped in the source. Analysis proceeds treating the larger value as the true high and smaller as the true low. The overall picture shows a base around $0.000019–$0.000022 (candles [16]–[17]), a gradual grind up through $0.000032–$0.000039 (candles [8]–[14]), a spike to ~$0.000063–$0.000081 intraday, and the most recent candle closing near $0.000046 with high volume (8,778 USD). The price has not held its spike highs.

Trend

Short-term

Downtrend

Medium-term

Uptrend

Medium-term trend is up from the $0.000019 base (candle [17]) to current ~$0.000046–$0.000053 range — a multi-hundred-percent move. However, the short-term (last 2–3 candles) shows a failure to hold the spike high near $0.000081 and a retracement, indicating short-term distribution and downward pressure.

Momentum & Volume

Momentum

Overbought

Volume trend

Decreasing

Buy

19%

Sell

81%

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$0.000045 (recent candle [1] close and candle [3] close cluster)

Major support

$0.000019–$0.000022 (candle [16]–[17] base, pre-pump origin)

Immediate resistance

$0.000053 (candle [2] high / candle [5]–[6] close area)

Major resistance

$0.000081 (candle [9] spike high — likely the 24h peak)

The $0.000032 level acted as a consolidation zone across candles [8]–[11] and represents a key intermediate support. A break below $0.000032 would open the path to the pre-pump base near $0.000019–$0.000022. Resistance at $0.000053 has been tested multiple times; a sustained break above would target the spike high near $0.000081.

Notable patterns

  • Climax volume spike in candle [2] ($40K volume) followed by declining volume — classic pump exhaustion
  • Failure to hold spike highs (~$0.000081) with price retracing to $0.000046 — bearish rejection
  • Multi-candle consolidation at $0.000032 (candles [8]–[11]) acting as prior resistance now potential support
  • Possible inverted candle data (L > H in multiple candles) — data quality concern
  • Base-building pattern from $0.000019 to $0.000022 over candles [16]–[17] before breakout

Holder growth

Total holders

191

24h Δ

+131

7d Δ

+189

30d Δ

+189

Accelerating Growth

Yes

Correlation with price

Holder growth is strongly correlated with the price pump. The token had only 2 holders from May 21 through June 17 (30 days of complete stagnation). On June 18, holders jumped by 60 to reach 62 (+97% in one day), coinciding with the initial price activation. In the 24h ending June 20, holders grew by another 131 (+69%), directly tracking the +1,057% price surge. This pattern is consistent with a pump attracting retail FOMO buyers rather than organic community growth.

The historical holder series reveals a stark pattern: exactly 2 holders for 30 consecutive days (May 21 – June 17), then a sudden explosion to 191 holders within ~48 hours. The 7d and 30d growth figures are identical (both +189 holders, +99%) because all meaningful growth occurred in the last 2 days. Of 191 total holders, 183 acquired via swap and only 8 via transfer, confirming this is entirely market-driven accumulation. Growth is accelerating in the very short term but is almost entirely driven by the price pump — sustainability is highly questionable. The distribution data (whales=0, sharks=0, dolphins=0, fish=0, octopus=0) and missing top holders data prevent assessment of concentration risk from holder metrics alone.

Concentration

Top 10 hold

0.00%

Top 100 hold

0.00%

Sentiment

Mixed

Top holder data is entirely unavailable for ALPACAS — the data source returned no top 20 holders list, and supply concentration metrics show 0% for both top 10 and top 100, which is almost certainly a data gap rather than a true reading. Given the token has only 191 holders and was dormant with 2 holders for 30 days, it is highly probable that those original 2 wallets hold a very significant portion of supply. The absence of this data is itself a risk signal. Distribution is classified as 'very_concentrated' based on the circumstantial evidence of the 2-holder dormancy period and the inability to verify otherwise. Sentiment is 'mixed' — early holders are likely distributing (evidenced by 81% sell pressure) while new retail buyers are accumulating.

Notable holders

  • Top holder data unavailable — no top holders list was returned by the data sourceunknown0.00%

Liquidity

Liquidity

$47,700

Depth

Shallow

Slippage risk

High

Liquidity is extremely shallow at $47.7K on a single PumpSwap pool (HCGVhwaU61UWipP9Ngamg2Rnd3L4XGdMzrTZT7JJeonR). With an FDV of ~$182K–$193K, the liquidity-to-FDV ratio is approximately 25%, which is low and means even moderate-sized sells will cause significant price impact. The 24h net flow is strongly negative: $67.94K in sell volume vs $15.92K in buy volume represents a net outflow of ~$52K. Sellers (320 unique) outnumber buyers (80 unique) by 4:1. Slippage risk is high — any position larger than a few hundred dollars will face meaningful slippage given the shallow pool depth. The token trades exclusively on PumpSwap with no other venues, concentrating all liquidity risk in a single pool.

Flow (24h)

Buy volume

$15,920

Sell volume

$67,940

Net flow

Outflow

Unique buyers

80

Unique sellers

320

Supply & authorities

Total supply

999,999,848.945102 ALPACAS

FDV

$182,426.68

Mint authority

Active

Freeze authority

Active

Total supply is effectively 1 billion tokens (999,999,848.945), consistent with a standard PumpFun/PumpSwap launch template. The FDV is ~$182K–$193K (slight discrepancy between metadata and analytics data, likely due to price movement). Update authority is listed as 'unknown' and the token is marked as 'Mutable: false', which is a positive signal — immutable metadata reduces the risk of post-launch metadata manipulation. However, mint authority and freeze authority status are not explicitly provided in the data, so they cannot be confirmed as renounced. The token has no verified contract, no description, and no social links, which are significant transparency deficits. The '.pump' suffix in the mint address (AE7gr74vQqdYhMEGQCdZRZjHn5TovkCJbWwirgDkpump) confirms this is a PumpFun-originated token, where mint authority is typically burned upon bonding curve graduation — but this cannot be confirmed from the available data alone.

  • Volatilityhigh

    +1,057% price move in 24 hours from a near-zero base. Extreme volatility in both directions is expected. The token can lose 80%+ of its value as quickly as it gained it.

  • Liquidityhigh

    Only $47.7K total liquidity on a single PumpSwap pool. High slippage on any meaningful position. A single large seller could collapse the price significantly.

  • Concentrationhigh

    Top holder data is unavailable, but the token had only 2 holders for 30 days before the pump. Those original holders almost certainly control a large portion of supply and appear to be distributing (81% sell pressure). Concentration risk is presumed very high.

  • Sniper Dumpmedium

    No sniper data is available. However, the 2-holder dormancy pattern and sudden activation strongly suggest pre-positioned wallets. The 4:1 seller-to-buyer ratio and 81% sell volume indicate active distribution by early holders.

  • Authoritymedium

    Mint and freeze authority status are unknown. Mutable=false is a positive signal. The .pump suffix suggests PumpFun origin where authorities are typically burned, but this is unconfirmed. Update authority is listed as unknown.

Key risks

  • 30-day dormancy followed by sudden pump is a classic pre-coordinated launch pattern
  • 81% sell pressure with 320 sellers vs 80 buyers — active distribution in progress
  • No social links, no description, unverified contract — near-zero project transparency
  • Top holder concentration data unavailable — cannot assess true distribution
  • Shallow $47.7K liquidity makes price extremely vulnerable to large sells
  • Single trading venue (PumpSwap) with no diversified liquidity
  • Token is only ~2 days old with no track record
  • Mint/freeze authority status unconfirmed

Mitigating factors

  • Mutable=false metadata reduces post-launch manipulation risk
  • PumpFun origin typically involves burned mint authority (unconfirmed but probable)
  • Rapid holder growth (2 to 191 in 48h) shows some genuine market interest
  • Token is listed on PumpSwap providing at least some on-chain liquidity
  • No spam flag from data provider

Suitable for

This token is suitable ONLY for highly experienced, risk-tolerant speculators who can afford to lose 100% of their investment. It is entirely inappropriate for conservative investors, those unfamiliar with micro-cap meme tokens, or anyone investing more than a negligible portion of their portfolio. The combination of extreme volatility, shallow liquidity, unknown authority status, active distribution signals, and near-zero transparency places this in the highest risk category.

ALPACAS is a pure speculative meme token with no stated utility, no social presence, and no verified fundamentals. The investment case is entirely momentum-driven. The token pumped +1,057% in 24 hours from a dormant base, attracting retail attention, but is now showing clear distribution signals with 81% sell pressure. The risk/reward is highly asymmetric to the downside at current prices.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

Viral meme momentum continues: the token gains social media traction, attracts influencer attention, and the 'Do Alpacas Really Wear Socks?' branding resonates as a meme. New buyers overwhelm sellers, liquidity deepens, and the token reaches a new ATH above $0.000081.

  • Viral social media moment or influencer promotion
  • Broader Solana meme coin market rally lifting all micro-caps
  • Community formation around the meme concept
  • Early holders completing distribution, reducing sell pressure

Base Case

Token stabilizes in the $0.000030–$0.000050 range for a few days as initial distribution pressure eases, then gradually fades as no new catalysts emerge. Holder count plateaus or slowly declines. Price drifts back toward $0.000020–$0.000030 over 1–2 weeks.

  • No major new catalysts (social media, listings) emerge
  • Sell pressure moderates as early holders finish distributing
  • A small core community of ~100–200 holders remains
  • Liquidity remains shallow, limiting both upside and downside velocity

Bear Case

High probability

Distribution completes rapidly: the original 2 pre-pump holders and early June 18 buyers finish selling into retail FOMO. Volume dries up, holders begin exiting, and price retraces to pre-pump levels near $0.000019–$0.000022 or lower. Token becomes dormant again.

  • 81% sell pressure and 4:1 seller-to-buyer ratio already in progress
  • No social links or community infrastructure to sustain interest
  • Shallow liquidity accelerates price decline on sell pressure
  • 30-day dormancy pattern suggests this may be a repeat pump-and-dump cycle
  • Decreasing volume after climax candle signals exhaustion

Analysis details

Generated

Jun 20, 10:47 PM UTC

Data freshness

Data reflects on-chain state as of approximately June 20, 2026 22:00 UTC. Most recent OHLC candle is from 22:00 UTC June 20, 2026.

Model confidence

Low

Data sources

  • On-chain token metadata (mint, decimals, supply, mutability)
  • Price feed (USD spot price, 24h change)
  • OHLC hourly candles (17 candles, June 19–20, 2026)
  • Trading analytics (volume, buy/sell pressure, unique wallets)
  • Holder metrics (total holders, acquisition method, 24h/7d/30d changes)
  • Historical holder series (30 days daily)
  • PumpSwap pool data (liquidity, pair address)

Limitations

  • Top 20 holder data was unavailable — concentration risk cannot be precisely quantified
  • Sniper analysis data was unavailable — early buyer PnL and sell-through rate cannot be assessed
  • Mint authority and freeze authority status are unconfirmed
  • Update authority is listed as 'unknown' — cannot verify renouncement
  • Multiple OHLC candles show L > H (physically impossible), suggesting data feed anomalies — technical levels derived with caution
  • Supply concentration metrics (top10=0%, top100=0%) appear to be data gaps rather than true readings
  • Token is only ~2 days old — extremely limited price history for technical analysis
  • No social links or project description available to assess team or roadmap
  • 24h price change of 0% shown in the 5m/24h fields conflicts with the +1,057% figure — possible data inconsistency

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in micro-cap meme tokens carries extreme risk including total loss of capital. Past price performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the short-term price outlook for Do Alpacas Really Wear Socks? (ALPACAS)?

The token is trading at ~$0.000182 after a +1,057% 24h pump. OHLC data shows the price peaked near $0.000193 (candle [1] low field appears inverted — likely a data anomaly; the highest close observed is ~$0.000053 in candle [2]) with the most recent candles showing a sharp spike and partial retracement. Sell pressure at 81% and 785 sells vs 265 buys strongly suggest continued distribution. Short-term direction is bearish with high probability of mean reversion toward the $0.000030–$0.000050 range. Short-term outlook is bearish (1–24 hours), with a target range of $0.000020 to $0.000053.

Is ALPACAS a safe investment on Solana?

Overall risk is rated very high with a risk score of 9.1/100. This token is suitable ONLY for highly experienced, risk-tolerant speculators who can afford to lose 100% of their investment. It is entirely inappropriate for conservative investors, those unfamiliar with micro-cap meme tokens, or anyone investing more than a negligible portion of their portfolio. The combination of extreme volatility, shallow liquidity, unknown authority status, active distribution signals, and near-zero transparency places this in the highest risk category.

How are ALPACAS holders trending?

Do Alpacas Really Wear Socks? currently has 191 holders and is growing (24h: 131, 7d: 189, 30d: 189). The historical holder series reveals a stark pattern: exactly 2 holders for 30 consecutive days (May 21 – June 17), then a sudden explosion to 191 holders within ~48 hours. The 7d and 30d growth figures are identical (both +189 holders, +99%) because all meaningful growth occurred in the last 2 days. Of 191 total holders, 183 acquired via swap and only 8 via transfer, confirming this is entirely market-driven accumulation. Growth is accelerating in the very short term but is almost entirely driven by the price pump — sustainability is highly questionable. The distribution data (whales=0, sharks=0, dolphins=0, fish=0, octopus=0) and missing top holders data prevent assessment of concentration risk from holder metrics alone.

What does sniper activity look like for ALPACAS?

Snipers hold roughly 0.00% of supply with PnL state "unknown" and sell-through rate "unknown". Profit-taking risk: high.

What are the key risks of holding ALPACAS?

30-day dormancy followed by sudden pump is a classic pre-coordinated launch pattern • 81% sell pressure with 320 sellers vs 80 buyers — active distribution in progress • No social links, no description, unverified contract — near-zero project transparency

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