LUCA

The Pudgy Penguin Price Today & AI Analysis

LUCASolanaAnalysis as of Jul 7, 2026

Price

$0.052655

+1.68% 24h

Contract

Live
8bLAwkQr6iKiCnD2Ldaka3seNW9RHDpi6k7Zn9bkamwp

Chain

Solana

Holders

302

Market cap

$2,653

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The Pudgy Penguin: holders, selling & liquidity

2026-07-07 13:17 UTC

Holder addresses

1,070

Top 10 supply share

Not available

Reported liquidity

$57,400.39
How concentrated is The Pudgy Penguin ownership?
Top-10 ownership concentration is not available in this report. The saved holder count is 1,070 addresses (2026-07-07 13:17 UTC). A holder count alone does not establish how supply is distributed.
Are large holders selling The Pudgy Penguin?
This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. A complete buy/sell volume observation is not available in the saved inputs. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.
Is The Pudgy Penguin liquidity falling?
As of 2026-07-07 13:17 UTC, reported liquidity was $57,400.39. At least two timestamped liquidity observations are needed to establish a change; this report does not have them.
Sources, observations & limitations

Source: inputs saved with the report generated 2026-07-07 13:17 UTC. Original provider retrieval times and historical samples were not recorded. Legacy zero placeholders are treated as unavailable. Holder addresses are not unique people. The provider’s top-10 share is not adjusted here for pools, exchanges, burn addresses or related wallets. Sniper classifications and wallet-level holder history are unavailable. Inspect token on the block explorer.

Recent swap evidence

Swap evidence is unavailable for this report.

Report snapshot

as of Jul 7, 01:17 PM UTC

FDV

$513,507

Liquidity

$57,400.39

Holders

1,070

Snipers

Not available

Risk

Very High
Loading price chart…

AI Executive Summary

Risk

Very High

Sentiment

Bearish

LUCA ('The Pudgy Penguin') is an unverified Solana token (mint: 8bLAwkQr6iKiCnD2Ldaka3seNW9RHDpi6k7Zn9bkamwp) with a 1 billion token supply and a fully diluted valuation of ~$513K at the current price of ~$0.000514. The token exhibits extreme red flags: 90.3% sell pressure over 24h ($656.78K sell vs $70.85K buy volume), only $57.4K in total liquidity, an unverified contract, unknown update authority, and deeply anomalous holder data (historical series shows only 9 holders for 30 days, then a sudden +1,061 jump in the last hour). The token name references 'Pudgy Penguins,' a well-known NFT brand, which may be an attempt to mislead investors. This token carries very high risk.

Key points

  • Extreme sell pressure: 90.3% of 24h volume is sells ($656.78K) vs only 9.7% buys ($70.85K)
  • Anomalous holder data: 9 holders for 30 days, then +1,061 in a single hour — highly suspicious
  • Shallow liquidity of only $57.4K against $513K FDV creates severe slippage risk
  • Name references 'Pudgy Penguins' NFT brand — potential brand impersonation/misleading branding
  • Unverified contract, unknown update authority, no top holder data available

AI Price Analysis

bearish

Short term · 1–24 hours

bearish

The token is in sharp decline. The most recent hourly candle (13:00 UTC) opened at $0.000637, hit a high of $0.000713, but closed at $0.000514 — a significant bearish close well below the open. The prior candle (12:00 UTC) showed extreme volatility (low $0.000130, high $0.000846). With 90.3% sell pressure and only $57.4K liquidity, further downside is highly probable in the near term.

Target low

$0.000130

Target high

$0.000637

Support

$0.000332 (candle [1] low), $0.000130 (candle [2] low)

Resistance

$0.000637 (candle [1] open), $0.000713 (candle [1] high), $0.000846 (candle [2] high)

Medium term · 7–30 days

bearish

Given the structural sell-side dominance, shallow liquidity, anomalous holder growth pattern, and lack of verified fundamentals, the medium-term outlook is bearish. Without a credible catalyst or liquidity injection, the token is at risk of approaching near-zero value.

Catalysts

  • Any genuine partnership or utility announcement (none currently evident)
  • Broader Solana memecoin market rally lifting all tokens
  • Liquidity pool expansion reducing slippage risk

Bullish factors

  • Price found some support above candle [2] low of $0.000130
  • FDV of $513K is relatively low, limiting absolute downside in dollar terms
  • 1,061 new holders in the last hour could indicate fresh speculative interest

Bearish factors

  • 90.3% sell pressure ($656.78K sells vs $70.85K buys) in 24h
  • Price down -14.1% in 24h and -14.6% in the last 5 minutes
  • Only $57.4K total liquidity — large sells will crater price
  • Anomalous holder spike is likely bot/wash activity, not organic demand
  • Unverified contract and unknown update authority
  • No description, no verified social presence beyond links

Confidence: low. Only 2 hourly OHLC candles are available, holder data is anomalous and likely unreliable, no top holder breakdown exists, and sniper data is unavailable. The data quality is too poor to make high-confidence price predictions.

LUCA call history

Full track record →

Jul 7bearish
24h-99.5%
7d-99.4%
30d-99.7%

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

Chain
Solana
Contract
8bLAwk...amwp
Total Supply
1,000,000,000 LUCA

Key Risks

  • Extreme sell pressure: 90.3% of 24h volume is sells ($656.78K vs $70.85K buys)
  • Critically shallow liquidity ($57.4K) — high slippage risk for any meaningful position
  • Anomalous holder data: 9 holders for 30 days then +1,061 in 1 hour — likely artificial/bot activity
  • Unknown update/mint/freeze authority — potential rug pull risk

Smart money & sniper coverage

Sniper classifications and wallet-level trading histories are not available in this report. Sniper concentration, profit-taking and dump risk have not been assessed.

Deep Analysis

Only 2 hourly candles are available. Candle [2] (12:00 UTC): O=$0.000183, H=$0.000846, L=$0.000130, C=$0.000641 — an extremely wide-range bullish candle with a massive lower wick, suggesting a sharp pump from a very low base. Candle [1] (13:00 UTC): O=$0.000637, H=$0.000713, L=$0.000332, C=$0.000514 — a bearish candle that opened near the prior close, briefly extended higher, then sold off sharply, closing well below the open. This forms a bearish engulfing/shooting-star-like pattern on the hourly, indicating sellers took control after the pump.

Trend

Short-term

Downtrend

Medium-term

Downtrend

The token pumped sharply in candle [2] then reversed in candle [1], printing a lower close. The 24h price change is -14.1% and the 5-minute change is -14.6%, confirming a short-term downtrend. Medium-term trend is also bearish given the sell-side dominance and shallow liquidity.

Momentum & Volume

Momentum

Oversold

Volume trend

Decreasing

Buy

10%

Sell

90%

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$0.000332 (candle [1] low)

Major support

$0.000130 (candle [2] low — absolute recent floor)

Immediate resistance

$0.000637 (candle [1] open / candle [2] close)

Major resistance

$0.000846 (candle [2] high — peak of the pump)

The $0.000332 level is the immediate support from the most recent candle's low. A break below this opens the path to $0.000130. On the upside, $0.000637 is the first resistance (prior open), with $0.000713 and $0.000846 as higher resistance levels from the pump candle.

Notable patterns

  • Bearish engulfing / shooting star on hourly: candle [1] opened at the prior close and sold off sharply
  • Pump-and-dump pattern: extreme low-to-high range in candle [2] followed by reversal in candle [1]
  • Declining volume on the reversal candle suggests fading interest after the pump
  • Wide lower wick on candle [2] indicates a brief capitulation before the pump — classic manipulation pattern

Liquidity

Liquidity

$57,400.39

Depth

Shallow

Slippage risk

High

Liquidity is critically shallow at $57.4K against a $513K FDV — a liquidity-to-FDV ratio of approximately 11.2%. This means any meaningful sell order will cause severe price impact. The 24h net flow is strongly negative: $656.78K in sell volume vs $70.85K in buy volume represents a net outflow of approximately $585.93K. With 2,229 unique sellers vs only 355 unique buyers (a 6.3:1 ratio), the market is in clear distribution mode. The PumpSwap pair (DPY4yWNwzfmvmb4nYdfmGR6tQfA6XM11m4Qak61dTnbt) is the sole liquidity venue, creating single-point-of-failure risk. Slippage risk is high for any position size above a few hundred dollars.

Supply & authorities

Total supply

1,000,000,000 LUCA

FDV

$513,506.75

Mint authority

Not available

Freeze authority

Not available

Mint and freeze authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations. Metadata update authority does not establish either permission.

  • Volatilityhigh

    Price swung from $0.000130 to $0.000846 within a single hour (candle [2]) — a 553% intra-candle range — before reversing. Current 24h decline is -14.1% with -14.6% in the last 5 minutes. Extreme volatility.

  • Liquidityhigh

    Total liquidity of only $57.4K against $513K FDV. Any sell order of meaningful size will cause severe slippage. Single liquidity pool on PumpSwap creates concentration risk.

  • ConcentrationNot assessed

    Ownership concentration cannot be assessed without a measured supply distribution.

  • Sniper DumpNot assessed

    Sniper classifications and wallet trading histories are unavailable.

  • AuthorityNot assessed

    Contract or authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations.

Key risks

  • Extreme sell pressure: 90.3% of 24h volume is sells ($656.78K vs $70.85K buys)
  • Critically shallow liquidity ($57.4K) — high slippage risk for any meaningful position
  • Anomalous holder data: 9 holders for 30 days then +1,061 in 1 hour — likely artificial/bot activity
  • Unknown update/mint/freeze authority — potential rug pull risk
  • Unverified contract with no description or transparent team
  • Potential brand impersonation of 'Pudgy Penguins' NFT collection
  • No top holder data available — concentration risk cannot be assessed
  • Pump-and-dump price pattern across the only 2 available candles
  • Single liquidity pool on PumpSwap — no diversified liquidity

Mitigating factors

  • Token is marked mutable=false, suggesting metadata cannot be altered
  • Not flagged as spam by the data provider
  • FDV of $513K is relatively low, limiting absolute dollar exposure
  • Token has social links (Twitter, Moralis) suggesting some minimal public presence

Suitable for

This token is NOT suitable for any risk-averse investor. It may only be considered by highly experienced speculative traders who fully understand the risks of low-liquidity, unverified Solana tokens and are prepared to lose their entire investment. Position sizing should be minimal if any exposure is taken.

LUCA presents an overwhelmingly negative risk/reward profile. The token exhibits multiple simultaneous red flags: extreme sell-side dominance (90.3% sell volume), critically shallow liquidity ($57.4K), anomalous and likely artificial holder growth, unknown contract authorities, unverified status, and a potential brand impersonation of Pudgy Penguins. There is no discernible utility, no description, and no transparent team. The only speculative bull case rests on the token's low FDV and the possibility of a short-term memecoin pump, but the structural data strongly argues against sustained value.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

Short-term speculative memecoin pump driven by the Pudgy Penguins brand association and low FDV. If the broader Solana memecoin market heats up and the token gains social media traction, the low FDV ($513K) could attract speculative buyers seeking high-multiple returns.

  • Low FDV of $513K provides theoretical room for large percentage gains
  • Pudgy Penguins brand association could attract speculative attention
  • 1,061 new holders in the last hour (if genuine) could signal early community formation
  • Broader Solana memecoin market rally

Base Case

The token continues to bleed value as sell pressure persists, stabilizing at a much lower price level with minimal trading activity. It becomes a low-liquidity, low-volume token with a small speculative holder base, similar to thousands of other failed Solana memecoins.

  • No major catalyst or viral social media moment emerges
  • Sell pressure moderates but does not reverse
  • Liquidity remains shallow, preventing large trades
  • Token retains a small speculative community but fails to grow meaningfully

Bear Case

High probability

Continued distribution by early holders into thin liquidity causes price to collapse toward the candle [2] low of $0.000130 or lower. Liquidity pool is drained, leaving remaining holders unable to exit. Token approaches near-zero value.

  • 90.3% sell pressure with 6,386 sell transactions vs 962 buys in 24h
  • Only $57.4K liquidity — insufficient to absorb continued selling
  • Anomalous holder spike likely represents bots/wash trading, not genuine demand
  • Unknown authorities and unverified contract create rug pull risk
  • No utility, no description, no verified team

Analysis details

Generated

Jul 7, 01:17 PM UTC

Saved observation

2026-07-07 13:17 UTC

Model confidence

Low

Data sources

  • On-chain token metadata (mint, supply, authority, mutability)
  • Price feed and 24h price change data
  • OHLC hourly candles (2 candles available)
  • Trading analytics (buy/sell volume, buyer/seller counts, liquidity)
  • Holder metrics and distribution data
  • Historical holder series (30-day daily)
  • Top holder data (unavailable)
  • Sniper analysis data (unavailable)

Limitations

  • Only 2 hourly OHLC candles available — technical analysis is severely limited
  • No top holder data available — whale map and concentration analysis cannot be completed
  • No sniper data available — smart money signals rely solely on aggregate trading data
  • Holder data is anomalous (9 holders for 30 days, then +1,061 in 1 hour) — reliability is questionable
  • Supply concentration shows top10=0% and top100=0% which is almost certainly a data error
  • Update authority is 'unknown' — mint/freeze authority status cannot be confirmed
  • Unverified contract limits on-chain transparency
  • Price change fields for 1h, 6h, and 24h show 0% which conflicts with the -14.1% 24h figure — possible data inconsistency

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does NOT constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments, especially in unverified low-liquidity tokens, carry extreme risk including total loss of capital. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) before making any investment decisions. The analyst and data providers bear no responsibility for investment outcomes.

Frequently Asked Questions

How concentrated is The Pudgy Penguin ownership?

Top-10 ownership concentration is not available in this report. The saved holder count is 1,070 addresses (2026-07-07 13:17 UTC). A holder count alone does not establish how supply is distributed.

Are large holders selling The Pudgy Penguin?

This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. A complete buy/sell volume observation is not available in the saved inputs. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.

Is The Pudgy Penguin liquidity falling?

As of 2026-07-07 13:17 UTC, reported liquidity was $57,400.39. At least two timestamped liquidity observations are needed to establish a change; this report does not have them.

What is the short-term price outlook for The Pudgy Penguin (LUCA)?

The token is in sharp decline. The most recent hourly candle (13:00 UTC) opened at $0.000637, hit a high of $0.000713, but closed at $0.000514 — a significant bearish close well below the open. The prior candle (12:00 UTC) showed extreme volatility (low $0.000130, high $0.000846). With 90.3% sell pressure and only $57.4K liquidity, further downside is highly probable in the near term. Short-term outlook is bearish (1–24 hours), with a target range of $0.000130 to $0.000637.

Is LUCA a safe investment on Solana?

The AI assessment rates overall risk as very high with a risk score of 9.2/100. This token is NOT suitable for any risk-averse investor. It may only be considered by highly experienced speculative traders who fully understand the risks of low-liquidity, unverified Solana tokens and are prepared to lose their entire investment. Position sizing should be minimal if any exposure is taken.

What are the key risks of holding LUCA?

Extreme sell pressure: 90.3% of 24h volume is sells ($656.78K vs $70.85K buys) • Critically shallow liquidity ($57.4K) — high slippage risk for any meaningful position • Anomalous holder data: 9 holders for 30 days then +1,061 in 1 hour — likely artificial/bot activity

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