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avUSD Price Today & AI Analysis

avUSD
Ethereum·AI Analysis
Analysis as of Sep 4, 2026

$1.01

-1.78%24h
LiveContract:0xf4c13d631450de6b12a19829e37c8e2826891dc4Chain:EthereumHolders:168Market cap:$495.71KLiquidity:$302.26K

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What are the risks?

Red flags, security, concentration

Should I buy?

Bull case, bear case, entry / exit

Movement since reportreport from Sep 4, 2026, 07:31 AM UTC
Market Cap

$495.71K

24h Volume

$23.73K

Liquidity

$302.26K

FDV

—

Holders

168

24HLoading trading activity…

Holder Insights

Live

Total holders

—

AI Executive Summary

avUSD (0xf4c13d631450de6b12a19829e37c8e2826891dc4) is an Ethereum-based token that has been live for approximately 9.3 months and trades on Curve at a price tightly clustered around $1.00–$1.02, exhibiting stablecoin-like price behavior with daily volatility of just 1.0%. Its market cap and fully diluted valuation are identical at $495,712, with the entire circulating supply of ~491,507 tokens outstanding. Trading activity is extremely thin — only 10 transactions in the past 24 hours — and sell-side pressure heavily dominates at 79.1% of volume. No project description, social presence, or contract-security data is available, leaving fundamental due diligence largely incomplete.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Sep 4, 2026, 07:31 AM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Risk: high
Sentiment: bearish
Near-peg price behavior: 88-day range of only $0.9975–$1.04 with 1.0% daily volatility, atypical for a sub-$500K market cap token
Exceptionally broad holder distribution: top-10 holders control only 4.4% of supply, far below typical small-cap concentration levels
Trades exclusively on Curve, a DEX associated with stablecoin and pegged-asset liquidity pools, suggesting a yield-bearing or synthetic dollar design

avUSD AI Price Analysis

Low Confidence
Short-Term24h-7d
Bearish

avUSD is trading at $1.01, sitting at only 17% of its 88-day range ($0.9975–$1.04), and the 7-day trend is -0.7%, indicating mild downward drift from recent highs near $1.02. With 79.1% sell pressure and only 1 buy transaction versus 9 sells in the past 24 hours, near-term momentum favors further softening toward the $1.00 immediate support. The token's stablecoin-like price behavior means moves are small in absolute terms, but the directional lean is clearly toward the lower end of the range.

Medium-Term30d-90d
Neutral

The 30-day trend is a modest +0.5% while the 7-day is -0.7%, producing a genuinely balanced picture with no clear directional conviction over the medium term. Daily volatility of just 1.0% and a tight 88-day range of $0.9975–$1.04 suggest avUSD behaves more like a soft-peg instrument than a speculative asset, making large directional moves unlikely absent a fundamental catalyst. The medium-term base case is continued oscillation within the established range.

Bullish Factors
  • +30-day trend is positive at +0.5%, showing the token has held above its $0.9975 floor and recovered from sub-$1.00 prints over the past month.
  • +Top-10 holders control only 4.4% of supply, indicating supply is broadly distributed and reduces the risk of a coordinated large-holder sell-off.
Bearish Factors
  • -Sell pressure dominates at 79.1% of 24-hour volume ($18,764 sells vs. $4,967 buys), with 8 unique sellers against only 1 unique buyer — a structurally lopsided order flow.
  • -Total liquidity of $302,263 against a market cap of $495,712 means the liquidity-to-market-cap ratio is roughly 61%, but the absolute pool depth is shallow enough that even modest sell orders can move the price meaningfully toward the $0.9975 major support.
  • -The 7-day trend of -0.7% and the price sitting at only 17% of the 88-day range confirm the token has drifted away from its recent highs near $1.04 and is closer to the lower bound of its historical range.

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

avUSD call history

Full track record →
Sep 4bearish
24hpending
7dpending
30dpending

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

ChainEthereum
Contract0xf4c1...1dc4
Total Supply—
Decimals—

Key Risks

•Unknown collateral mechanism: with no project description or documentation available, the asset backing avUSD's near-$1.00 peg is unverifiable — a collateral failure or algorithmic flaw could cause a rapid depeg below $0.9975 major support
•Thin liquidity and one-sided order flow: $302,263 in total liquidity combined with 79.1% sell pressure and only 1 buy transaction in 24 hours creates conditions where sustained selling could overwhelm the pool and push the price to or below the $0.9975 floor
•Zero public documentation and social presence after 9.3 months: the complete absence of verifiable project information makes independent risk assessment impossible and raises questions about the token's intended audience and governance structure

Trading Insight

bearish

Current market sentiment is bearish, driven by a 79.1% sell-pressure ratio and a 9:1 sell-to-buy transaction count over the past 24 hours. The single buy transaction recorded suggests minimal demand-side participation, while 8 unique sellers indicate a broad-based, not concentrated, exit pattern.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d):
Bearish
Medium-Term (30d):
Neutral

The 7-day return of -0.7% establishes a mild short-term downtrend, with the price at $1.01 sitting at just 17% of the 88-day range, closer to the $0.9975 floor than the $1.04 ceiling. The 30-day return of +0.5% is essentially flat, confirming a sideways medium-term structure with no sustained directional momentum. Recent daily closes oscillate between $0.9996 and $1.02, consistent with a mean-reverting, range-bound instrument.

Momentum

Status:
Oversold

With the price at 17% of the 88-day range and a 7-day negative drift, short-term momentum is tilted to the downside. However, given the near-peg nature of the asset and 1.0% daily volatility, 'oversold' in this context means proximity to the lower range boundary ($0.9975–$1.00) rather than a deep momentum breakdown. A reversion toward $1.01–$1.02 is plausible if selling pressure abates.

Volume Analysis

Buy 20.9%Sell 79.1%

Volume Trend: Decreasing

The 24-hour volume of $23,731 is thin relative to the market cap and liquidity pool. The 4-hour window shows only 4 transactions, and the 1-hour window shows just 1 sell with zero buys, indicating activity is tapering. Decreasing volume in a downward-drifting price environment can signal either exhaustion of sellers (potential stabilization) or disinterest from buyers (continued drift).

Recent Price Action

The 14 most recent daily closes show a tight oscillation: the token printed $1.00 multiple times, spiked to $1.02 on several occasions, and has not sustained any move above $1.02 for more than one session. The current $1.01 close is a retreat from the recent $1.02 cluster.

This choppy, mean-reverting pattern around $1.00–$1.02 is characteristic of a soft-pegged or yield-bearing dollar asset. It suggests the token has a mechanism anchoring it near $1.00, but the inability to hold above $1.02 and the current drift toward $1.00 indicates the peg mechanism may be under mild redemption pressure.

Key Price Levels

Support
Immediate$1.00
Major$0.9975
Resistance
Immediate$1.01
Major$1.04

The $1.00 immediate support is the psychological and structural floor that has held across multiple daily closes in the 88-day OHLC history; a breach would expose the $0.9975 major support, which represents the absolute range low. On the upside, $1.01 is the nearest resistance the current price must clear to resume the recent $1.02 oscillation pattern, while $1.04 marks the 88-day range high and would represent a full recovery to peak levels.

Overall Risk:
High
72/100

Risk Breakdown

Volatility
Low

Daily volatility of 1.0% and an 88-day range of only $0.9975–$1.04 make avUSD one of the least volatile tokens by price movement. However, for a near-peg asset, even a 2–3% move below $1.00 would constitute a meaningful depeg event, so the low volatility reading must be interpreted in context.

Liquidity
High

Total liquidity of $302,263 against a market cap of $495,712 is a 61% liquidity-to-market-cap ratio, which sounds adequate but in absolute terms means a $30,000 sell order could cause significant slippage. The 24-hour sell volume of $18,764 already represents 6.2% of the liquidity pool, and the Curve pool's depth for a sub-$500K asset is insufficient for any meaningful institutional participation.

Concentration
Low

The top-10 holders control only 4.4% of supply — an unusually low figure that indicates broad distribution. Per-wallet holder data is unavailable, so individual whale positions cannot be assessed, but the aggregate concentration metric does not suggest dumpable-whale risk at the top-holder level.

Smart Contract
Medium

No contract-security data is available from this chain's data provider; this 'medium' rating is an uninformed default rather than an assessment. The contract has not been independently verified, audited, or assessed for vulnerabilities within this analysis. Investors must conduct their own smart contract due diligence.

Regulatory
Medium

Tokens that behave like stablecoins or synthetic dollars are subject to increasing regulatory scrutiny globally, including potential classification as securities or payment instruments. Without knowing the issuer or collateral mechanism, the specific regulatory exposure cannot be quantified.

Key Risks

  • •Unknown collateral mechanism: with no project description or documentation available, the asset backing avUSD's near-$1.00 peg is unverifiable — a collateral failure or algorithmic flaw could cause a rapid depeg below $0.9975 major support
  • •Thin liquidity and one-sided order flow: $302,263 in total liquidity combined with 79.1% sell pressure and only 1 buy transaction in 24 hours creates conditions where sustained selling could overwhelm the pool and push the price to or below the $0.9975 floor
  • •Zero public documentation and social presence after 9.3 months: the complete absence of verifiable project information makes independent risk assessment impossible and raises questions about the token's intended audience and governance structure

Mitigating Factors

  • •9.3 months of price history without a catastrophic depeg, with the price floor holding at $0.9975 throughout the observable OHLC period
  • •Exceptionally low top-10 holder concentration at 4.4%, reducing the probability of a coordinated large-holder exit driving a sudden price collapse

Investor Suitability

Given the high overall risk score driven by unknown fundamentals, shallow liquidity, and absent documentation, avUSD is suitable only for sophisticated participants who have independently verified the underlying protocol, collateral mechanism, and smart contract security. It is not appropriate for retail investors seeking a reliable stable-value instrument without conducting extensive independent due diligence.

avUSD presents as a near-peg asset with stablecoin-like price behavior, but the complete absence of project documentation, a shallow liquidity pool, and heavily sell-skewed order flow make it difficult to construct a confident investment thesis in either direction. The token's 9.3-month survival without a major depeg is the primary evidence in its favor, while the opacity of its design is the central risk.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case
Low

avUSD is a legitimate yield-bearing synthetic dollar or protocol-native stable asset with a functioning peg mechanism. As the protocol gains adoption, demand for avUSD grows, the Curve pool deepens, and the price stabilizes firmly above $1.00 with increasing buy-side participation. The 30-day +0.5% trend and 9.3-month track record without a depeg support this scenario.

  • +Verification of a robust collateral or yield mechanism that justifies the near-$1.00 peg and attracts new holders beyond the current 168
  • +Expansion of Curve pool liquidity and integration with other DeFi protocols that generate organic buy demand
Base Case

avUSD continues to oscillate within its established $0.9975–$1.04 range with low daily volatility, serving a small, stable user base of 168 holders. Trading activity remains thin, the peg holds near $1.00, and the token neither gains significant adoption nor suffers a catastrophic failure — a slow, low-activity existence as a niche instrument.

  • •The underlying peg mechanism remains functional and no collateral stress event occurs
  • •The current holder base does not collectively exit, keeping the Curve pool liquid enough to absorb routine sell orders
Bear Case
Medium

The underlying peg mechanism is fragile, undercollateralized, or dependent on a small set of actors. Continued sell pressure (currently 79.1% of volume) depletes the Curve pool, the price breaks below the $0.9975 major support, and a loss of confidence triggers a depeg spiral. The absence of any public documentation makes it impossible to rule out this scenario.

  • -Sustained sell-side dominance (9:1 sell-to-buy ratio) eroding the $302,263 liquidity pool faster than new liquidity is added
  • -Unknown collateral mechanism that cannot be independently verified, leaving the peg defense entirely opaque

Analysis Details

GeneratedSep 4, 2026, 07:31 AM UTC
Data FreshnessReal-time on-chain data
Model Confidence
Low

Data Snapshot

Price$1.00855562788
Market Cap$495.7K
24h Volume$23.7K
Holders168
Liquidity$302.3K

Data Sources

Codex DEX market data (price, volume, liquidity)
Daily OHLC price history
Aggregate holder count and top-10 concentration

Limitations

  • •Holder-growth history is unavailable for this chain's data provider — holder trend analysis is omitted
  • •Whale transaction records and individual wallet behavior data are unavailable — whale activity cannot be assessed beyond aggregate concentration
  • •Contract-security data (audit status, ownership, honeypot analysis) is unavailable for this chain's data provider — smart contract risk is an uninformed default
  • •No project description, documentation, or social links are available — fundamental analysis of the peg mechanism, collateral, and issuer is impossible
  • •Only 88 days of OHLC history is available with no 90-day return figure, limiting long-term trend analysis

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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