FBTC

FBTC Price Today & AI Analysis

FBTC
Ethereum·AI Analysis
Analysis as of Sep 14, 2026

$78,471.98

+2.13%24h
LiveContract:0xc96de26018a54d51c097160568752c4e3bd6c364Chain:EthereumHolders:685Market cap:$48.60MLiquidity:$2.36M

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Ask Unhosted AI about FBTC

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Sentiment, KOL mentions, top tweets

Whale activity

Who is accumulating or distributing

What are the risks?

Red flags, security, concentration

Should I buy?

Bull case, bear case, entry / exit

Movement since reportreport from Sep 14, 2026, 06:00 PM UTC
Market Cap

$48.60M

24h Volume

$2.48K

Liquidity

$2.36M

FDV

—

Holders

685

24HLoading trading activity…

Holder Insights

Live

Total holders

—

AI Executive Summary

FBTC is a wrapped Bitcoin token on Ethereum, deployed roughly 27.5 months ago (May 2024), currently priced at $78,471.98 with a $48.6 million market cap and a fixed 619.32 total/circulating supply. The token has risen 25.1% over 30 days and 21.0% over 90 days, now trading near the top of its 91-day range ($58,368.77–$80,949.33). Despite this favorable multi-week trend, 24-hour activity is minimal (only 3 sell transactions, $2,478 volume, zero buys) against just $2.36 million in liquidity, and the top 10 wallets hold 97.0% of supply — both point to fragile trading depth beneath the price performance.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Sep 14, 2026, 06:00 PM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Risk: high
Sentiment: bearish
Designed as a 1:1 BTC-backed asset intended to track Bitcoin's price rather than trade on independent speculative demand
Claims publicly verifiable custodian BTC reserves per its project description (not independently confirmed in this analysis)
Positioned as multi-chain DeFi collateral rather than a standalone speculative token

FBTC AI Price Analysis

Low Confidence
Short-Term24h-7d
Bullish

Daily closes show a clear V-shaped recovery: after peaking at $80,949.33, price fell to $76,650.80 and has since climbed for two straight sessions to $78,471.98, sitting just below immediate resistance at $78,561.17. The 7d change of -1.4% reflects the earlier pullback rather than current momentum, which has turned upward again.

Medium-Term30d-90d
Bullish

The 30d (+25.1%) and 90d (+21.0%) trends are both strongly positive, and price is trading at 89% of its 91-day range, close to the major resistance/period high of $80,949.33. A sustained break above that level would confirm continuation of the medium-term uptrend, while failure would leave the token range-bound between roughly $76,650 and $80,949.

Bullish Factors
  • +30d price change of +25.1% and 90d change of +21.0% both indicate a sustained medium-term uptrend
  • +Price has recovered from a $76,650.80 trough to $78,471.98 over the last two daily closes, approaching the immediate resistance of $78,561.17
  • +Daily volatility of only 2.0% suggests relatively stable price behavior compared to typical altcoins, consistent with its BTC-pegged design
Bearish Factors
  • -24h trading was 100% sell-side: 3 sell transactions totaling $2,478 versus zero buy transactions and $0 buy volume
  • -7d change is -1.4%, showing the token has not yet reclaimed the $80,949.33 period high
  • -Total liquidity of $2,355,138 is thin relative to the $48,599,452 market cap, raising slippage risk on larger trades
  • -Top 10 holders control 97.0% of total supply, concentrating price-moving power in very few wallets

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

FBTC call history

Full track record →
Sep 14bullish
24hpending
7dpending
30dpending

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

ChainEthereum
Contract0xc96d...c364
Total Supply—
Decimals—

Key Risks

•24h trading activity is extremely thin (0 buy transactions, 3 sell transactions, $2,478 total volume), suggesting limited genuine market depth despite the $48.6M market cap
•Top 10 wallets hold 97.0% of supply; with only $2.36M in liquidity, coordinated movement from these wallets could materially impact price
•Contract-security audit and holder-growth history data are unavailable, limiting the ability to independently assess smart contract or rug risk
•As a custodial wrapped-BTC asset, the claimed 1:1 backing and redemption process rely on the issuer's (Function's) custodian arrangements, which cannot be independently verified from on-chain data alone

Trading Insight

bearish

The observed 24h flow is entirely sell-side with zero buy transactions, but the sample size (3 total trades, $2,478 volume) is too small relative to the $48.6M market cap to draw a strong conviction call. This looks more like a market with very low turnover than an active distribution event.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d):
Bullish
Medium-Term (30d):
Bullish

After peaking at $80,949.33 and retracing to $76,650.80, price has recovered for two consecutive daily closes to $78,471.98, pointing to renewed short-term upward momentum. The medium-term trend is unambiguously up, with gains of 25.1% over 30 days and 21.0% over 90 days.

Momentum

Status:
Neutral

No standalone momentum oscillator (RSI/MACD) is available in the data. Price sitting at 89% of the 91-day range and immediately below the immediate resistance of $78,561.17 suggests momentum is firm but stretched, which typically raises the chance of consolidation or a test of resistance rather than an unchecked breakout.

Volume Analysis

Buy 0%Sell 100%

Volume Trend: Decreasing

24h volume of just $2,478 against $2.36M in liquidity is very light, and all of it was sell-side with zero buy volume, suggesting overall trading interest is thin at current levels.

Recent Price Action

Price rallied to a 91-day high of $80,949.33, retraced roughly 5.3% to a low of $76,650.80, and has since recovered over two sessions to $78,471.98.

This V-shaped recovery indicates renewed demand after the pullback, but the failure so far to reclaim the prior high makes the $78,561.17–$80,949.33 zone a key battleground for continuation of the medium-term uptrend.

Key Price Levels

Support
Immediate$78,202.29
Major$58,368.77
Resistance
Immediate$78,561.17
Major$80,949.33

Current price ($78,471.98) is sandwiched tightly between immediate support ($78,202.29) and immediate resistance ($78,561.17), a narrow band that will likely determine near-term direction. A close above $78,561.17 opens the path toward the major resistance/period high of $80,949.33, while a break of $78,202.29 risks a retest of the $76,650 recent trough and, in a deeper pullback, the major support at $58,368.77.

Overall Risk:
High
62/100

Risk Breakdown

Volatility
Low

Daily volatility (stdev of returns) is only 2.0%, and price behavior closely tracks Bitcoin's own valuation, which is comparatively lower-volatility than most altcoins.

Liquidity
High

Total liquidity of $2,355,138 is small relative to the $48,599,452 market cap, and 24h volume was only $2,478 with zero buy-side transactions, indicating limited depth to absorb larger trades without significant slippage.

Concentration
High

Top 10 holders control 97.0% of the total 619.32 token supply across only 685 total holders; per-wallet classification is unavailable, so this concentration cannot be confirmed as benign custodial/protocol holdings versus dumpable individual positions.

Smart Contract
Medium

No contract-security audit or scoring data is available from this chain's data provider; 'medium' is an uninformed default rather than an actual assessment of the contract code.

Regulatory
Medium

As a custodial wrapped-BTC product, FBTC's backing and redemption depend on the issuer's custodial arrangements, which introduces counterparty and regulatory considerations beyond those of holding native BTC directly.

Key Risks

  • •24h trading activity is extremely thin (0 buy transactions, 3 sell transactions, $2,478 total volume), suggesting limited genuine market depth despite the $48.6M market cap
  • •Top 10 wallets hold 97.0% of supply; with only $2.36M in liquidity, coordinated movement from these wallets could materially impact price
  • •Contract-security audit and holder-growth history data are unavailable, limiting the ability to independently assess smart contract or rug risk
  • •As a custodial wrapped-BTC asset, the claimed 1:1 backing and redemption process rely on the issuer's (Function's) custodian arrangements, which cannot be independently verified from on-chain data alone

Mitigating Factors

  • •The token has a roughly 27.5-month operating history (since May 2024) with no evidence of failure in the data reviewed
  • •Price closely tracks Bitcoin's valuation, inheriting BTC's comparatively lower volatility profile (2.0% daily stdev) relative to typical altcoins
  • •Official social channels (Twitter, Telegram, Discord, Website) are actively maintained

Investor Suitability

Best suited for sophisticated DeFi participants seeking BTC-denominated collateral or yield exposure who understand custodial wrapped-asset counterparty risk; not well suited for investors seeking deep, liquid secondary markets given the thin $2.36M liquidity relative to the $48.6M market cap, or for those wanting exposure uncorrelated with custodial/counterparty risk.

FBTC functions primarily as a BTC-tracking, DeFi-collateral instrument rather than an independently-driven speculative token, so its price trajectory is likely to remain closely tied to Bitcoin while carrying additional custodial and liquidity-specific risks. The 30d/90d uptrend is constructive, but thin 24h trading and high holder concentration warrant caution around position sizing.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case
Medium

If Bitcoin's broader uptrend continues and FBTC maintains its peg while DeFi demand for BTC-denominated collateral grows, the token could break above the major resistance at $80,949.33, extending the 30d (+25.1%) and 90d (+21.0%) gains.

  • +Continuation of the broader Bitcoin bull trend feeding through to the pegged FBTC price
  • +Growing adoption of FBTC as collateral across lending, liquidity, and yield protocols per its stated use case
Base Case

FBTC most likely continues trading as a close proxy for Bitcoin's price, oscillating within the recent $76,650.80–$80,949.33 range on generally thin, low-frequency volume, with token-specific catalysts playing a secondary role to overall BTC price direction.

  • •The custodial BTC backing remains intact and the redemption mechanism continues to function as described
  • •Bitcoin's broader market trend remains the dominant driver of FBTC's price given its 1:1 peg design
Bear Case
Medium

A break below immediate support at $78,202.29, combined with the observed 100% sell-side 24h flow and thin $2.36M liquidity, could send price back toward the recent $76,650.80 trough or, in a deeper move, the major support at $58,368.77 if broader BTC weakness or custodial/peg concerns emerge.

  • -Zero buy transactions versus three sells in the last 24h, signaling an absence of fresh demand at current levels
  • -97.0% top-10 concentration combined with unverifiable per-wallet classification leaves outsized de-peg or dump risk

Analysis Details

GeneratedSep 14, 2026, 06:00 PM UTC
Data FreshnessReal-time on-chain data
Model Confidence
Low

Data Snapshot

Price$78471.9802671
Market Cap$48.60M
24h Volume$2.5K
Holders685
Liquidity$2.36M

Data Sources

Codex DEX market data (price, volume, liquidity)
Daily OHLC price history
Aggregate holder count and top-10 concentration

Limitations

  • •Holder-growth history, whale-transaction records, and contract-security scoring were unavailable for this chain/token combination
  • •24h trading data reflects only 3 transactions and $2,478 in volume, an extremely small sample for sentiment inference
  • •Per-wallet holder identity and smart-money cohort data could not be obtained, limiting concentration and whale-behavior analysis to aggregate figures only

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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