USUALX

USUALX Price Today & AI Analysis

USUALX
Ethereum·AI Analysis
Analysis as of Sep 6, 2026

$0.0212

+1.23%24h
LiveContract:0x06b964d96f5dcf7eae9d7c559b09edce244d4b8eChain:EthereumHolders:8.1KMarket cap:$10.51MLiquidity:$109.77K

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What are the risks?

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Movement since reportreport from Sep 6, 2026, 10:16 PM UTC
Market Cap

$10.51M

24h Volume

$11.93K

Liquidity

$109.77K

FDV

—

Holders

8.1K

24HLoading trading activity…

Holder Insights

Live

Total holders

—

AI Executive Summary

USUALX is the staked governance token of the Usual protocol, a decentralized banking framework built around the USD0 stablecoin on Ethereum. At 21.4 months old with a market cap of approximately $10.5M and a circulating supply of ~496M tokens, the token has an established on-chain history but currently trades at a deeply compressed price of $0.02117 — roughly 97.7% below its 91-day range high. Despite this drawdown, the 30-day and 90-day price trends are both positive (+28.8% and +27.6% respectively), suggesting a nascent recovery is underway. However, extremely thin liquidity ($109,773), very low daily trading volume, and an 82.8% sell-pressure ratio in the past 24 hours highlight that this recovery remains fragile and the token carries significant liquidity and concentration risk.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Sep 6, 2026, 10:16 PM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Risk: high
Sentiment: bearish
Staked governance token with daily USUAL reward distribution, creating a built-in yield mechanism that differentiates it from purely speculative assets
Deeply integrated into the Usual protocol's decentralized banking ecosystem centered on the USD0 stablecoin, giving it fundamental utility beyond speculation
Trading at historically compressed valuations (~1% of 91-day range) while exhibiting a positive multi-month trend, creating an asymmetric risk/reward profile for risk-tolerant investors

USUALX AI Price Analysis

Low Confidence
Short-Term24h-7d
Bullish

USUALX has posted a 7-day gain of +5.9% and the recent daily closes show a gradual recovery from the $0.01940 low back toward the $0.02117 area, suggesting short-term buying pressure is intact. The price is pressing against immediate resistance at $0.02126, and a clean break above that level would open the next leg higher. However, the 82.8% sell pressure in the 24-hour window and extremely thin volume ($11,928 combined) introduce meaningful near-term choppiness.

Medium-Term30d-90d
Bullish

The 30-day gain of +28.8% and 90-day gain of +27.6% confirm a sustained upward trend rather than a short-term spike, indicating structural demand for USUALX over the medium term. The token is currently sitting at just 1% of its 91-day range ($0.01214–$0.9149), meaning the current price is near the bottom of the historical range despite the positive trend — this asymmetry suggests meaningful upside potential if the Usual protocol ecosystem continues to grow. Sustained protocol adoption and staking demand are the primary drivers to watch.

Bullish Factors
  • +Consistent positive trend across all measured windows: +5.9% (7d), +28.8% (30d), and +27.6% (90d), indicating sustained demand rather than a one-day anomaly
  • +USUALx is the staked form of USUAL, providing daily USUAL token rewards and governance rights — a structural utility that creates organic staking demand and reduces circulating sell pressure
  • +The token is trading at approximately 1% of its 91-day range high of $0.9149, meaning the current price of $0.02117 represents a historically compressed valuation relative to prior peaks
Bearish Factors
  • -Sell pressure dominates at 82.8% of 24-hour volume ($9,873 sell vs. $2,055 buy), with 13 unique sellers versus only 5 unique buyers, indicating active distribution by current holders
  • -Total liquidity of $109,773 is extremely shallow for a $10.5M market cap token — a ratio of roughly 1% liquidity-to-market-cap creates severe slippage risk and makes the price highly susceptible to manipulation by even modest-sized trades
  • -The token sits at 1% of its 91-day range, meaning it has retraced approximately 97.7% from its range high of $0.9149, reflecting a severe drawdown from prior highs that has not yet been recovered

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

USUALX call history

Full track record →
Sep 6bullish
24hpending
7dpending
30dpending

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

ChainEthereum
Contract0x06b9...4b8e
Total Supply—
Decimals—

Key Risks

•Liquidity crisis risk: With only $109,773 in on-chain liquidity, a coordinated sell by even one or two large holders could cause a catastrophic price collapse with no liquidity to absorb it — the 91-day range low of $0.01214 could be breached rapidly under such conditions
•Protocol dependency risk: USUALX derives its entire value from the Usual protocol's health — if USD0 loses its peg, the protocol suffers a hack, or TVL declines sharply, USUALX rewards and governance utility would be severely impaired
•Concentration and unlock risk: The 87.6% top-10 holder concentration, combined with the inability to classify those wallets as protocol contracts vs. individual sellers, means a significant portion of supply could theoretically be liquidated with little warning

Trading Insight

bearish

Current 24-hour trading sentiment is bearish, with sell pressure accounting for 82.8% of volume ($9,873 sell vs. $2,055 buy) and 13 unique sellers versus only 5 unique buyers. This distribution pattern suggests that existing holders are actively reducing positions, even as the multi-week trend remains constructive. The 4-hour and 1-hour windows show a reversal toward buying (5 buys, 0 sells in the last hour), but the volume is too small to draw firm conclusions.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d):
Bullish
Medium-Term (30d):
Bullish

The daily OHLC data confirms an uptrend across both short and medium timeframes: +5.9% over 7 days and +28.8% over 30 days. The recent daily close sequence (from $0.02019 to $0.02117) shows a series of higher lows and a gradual grind upward, consistent with accumulation at depressed price levels. Daily volatility of 5.1% (standard deviation of daily returns) is moderate and does not indicate panic or euphoria.

Momentum

Status:
Neutral

With the price sitting at just 1% of the 91-day range ($0.01214–$0.9149), the token is far from overbought on any longer-term basis. The 5.1% daily volatility and the recent recovery from the $0.01940 intra-period low suggest momentum is rebuilding from an oversold condition, but the 24-hour sell-pressure dominance prevents a clean 'oversold bounce' classification. Momentum is best described as cautiously recovering.

Volume Analysis

Buy 17.2%Sell 82.8%

Volume Trend: Stable

Daily trading volume is consistently very low, with the 24-hour combined volume of ~$11,928 representing a negligible fraction of the $10.5M market cap. This stable-but-thin volume environment means the uptrend is occurring on weak conviction — price is rising but without the volume expansion that would confirm institutional or smart-money participation. Low volume uptrends are more susceptible to reversal.

Recent Price Action

The 14 most recent daily closes show a range-bound consolidation between approximately $0.01940 and $0.02117, with the price gradually working toward the upper end of this tight band. The sequence shows no sharp breakdowns, suggesting support is holding, but also no decisive breakout above the $0.02126 immediate resistance.

This tight consolidation pattern near the lower end of the 91-day range, combined with a positive multi-week trend, is consistent with a base-building phase. A sustained close above $0.02126 would be the first technical confirmation of a breakout attempt; failure to hold $0.02032 would signal a return to the lower end of the consolidation range.

Key Price Levels

Support
Immediate$0.02032
Major$0.01214
Resistance
Immediate$0.02126
Major$0.9149

The immediate support at $0.02032 corresponds to a recent swing low in the daily OHLC data and represents the first line of defense for the current recovery. Major support at $0.01214 is the 91-day range low — a breach of this level would represent a new multi-month low and invalidate the current recovery thesis. Immediate resistance at $0.02126 is the nearest overhead barrier; clearing it with volume would be a constructive signal. The major resistance at $0.9149 — the 91-day range high — is a distant target that underscores how far the token has fallen from its peak and the scale of recovery required to revisit prior highs.

Overall Risk:
High
72/100

Risk Breakdown

Volatility
High

Daily return volatility of 5.1% (standard deviation) compounds to significant weekly and monthly price swings. The 91-day range spans from $0.01214 to $0.9149 — a 75x spread — demonstrating that USUALX has experienced extreme price dislocations in its history. The current price sitting at 1% of that range confirms the token has undergone a severe drawdown from its peak.

Liquidity
High

Total on-chain liquidity of $109,773 is critically low relative to the $10.5M market cap (approximately 1% ratio). A trade of even $5,000–$10,000 would likely cause meaningful price impact. This makes it difficult to enter or exit positions of any significant size without substantial slippage, and creates vulnerability to price manipulation by actors with modest capital.

Concentration
High

The top 10 holders control 87.6% of the ~496M token supply. Without per-wallet classification data, it is impossible to determine how much of this represents protocol contracts, exchange custody, or individual holders with the ability to sell. This uncertainty itself constitutes a risk — the worst-case scenario (all top-10 holders being individual sellers) would represent a critical concentration risk, and the data does not allow that scenario to be ruled out.

Smart Contract
Medium

No contract security data is available on this chain's data provider, so this rating is an uninformed default rather than an assessment. Investors should independently verify the contract's audit status and check for known vulnerabilities before interacting with the protocol.

Regulatory
Medium

As a staked governance token that distributes yield (daily USUAL rewards), USUALX may be classified as a security in certain jurisdictions, particularly under the Howey Test framework applied by the U.S. SEC. The USD0 stablecoin component of the Usual protocol also faces evolving stablecoin-specific regulatory scrutiny globally. These are sector-wide risks rather than USUALX-specific, but they are material.

Key Risks

  • •Liquidity crisis risk: With only $109,773 in on-chain liquidity, a coordinated sell by even one or two large holders could cause a catastrophic price collapse with no liquidity to absorb it — the 91-day range low of $0.01214 could be breached rapidly under such conditions
  • •Protocol dependency risk: USUALX derives its entire value from the Usual protocol's health — if USD0 loses its peg, the protocol suffers a hack, or TVL declines sharply, USUALX rewards and governance utility would be severely impaired
  • •Concentration and unlock risk: The 87.6% top-10 holder concentration, combined with the inability to classify those wallets as protocol contracts vs. individual sellers, means a significant portion of supply could theoretically be liquidated with little warning

Mitigating Factors

  • •The token is 21.4 months old with a positive multi-month price trend (+28.8% over 30 days), suggesting the protocol has survived market cycles and maintained user engagement
  • •Total supply equals circulating supply, eliminating the risk of scheduled token unlocks creating sudden sell pressure from vesting schedules

Investor Suitability

USUALX is suitable only for risk-tolerant investors with a high conviction in the Usual protocol's long-term growth, a thorough understanding of DeFi staking mechanics, and the ability to tolerate extreme price volatility and potential illiquidity. It is not appropriate for investors who require liquidity, cannot absorb a near-total loss, or are unfamiliar with the risks of concentrated, low-liquidity DeFi tokens.

USUALX presents an asymmetric risk/reward profile: the token trades at ~1% of its 91-day range high while exhibiting a positive multi-month trend, and its staking utility provides structural demand. However, the extreme liquidity shallowness, high holder concentration, and absence of verifiable security data mean the downside risks are severe and the thesis is highly speculative.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case
Low

The Usual protocol's USD0 stablecoin gains significant TVL and protocol revenue, driving increased USUAL reward distributions to USUALx stakers. This creates a flywheel of staking demand, reducing circulating USUAL supply and pushing USUALX price toward recovery of a meaningful fraction of its 91-day range. A broader DeFi bull market amplifies this dynamic.

  • +Sustained growth in Usual protocol TVL and USD0 adoption, increasing the yield attractiveness of USUALx staking
  • +Broader DeFi market expansion increasing risk appetite for yield-bearing governance tokens
Base Case

USUALX continues its low-volume consolidation in the $0.01940–$0.02126 range, with the positive multi-month trend intact but lacking the volume or catalyst needed for a decisive breakout. The token remains a niche staking instrument for Usual protocol participants, with price action driven primarily by protocol-level developments rather than broader market sentiment.

  • •Usual protocol maintains current TVL and continues distributing USUAL rewards to USUALx stakers without major disruptions
  • •No large-scale liquidation event from concentrated top holders, and no adverse regulatory action targeting the USD0 stablecoin or USUAL token reward mechanism
Bear Case
Medium

One or more of the top-10 holders (controlling 87.6% of supply) begins liquidating into the $109,773 liquidity pool, causing a cascading price collapse. The thin liquidity amplifies the move, potentially breaching the $0.01214 major support and setting new all-time lows. Protocol stagnation or a USD0 depeg event would accelerate this scenario.

  • -Large holder liquidation into an illiquid market, with the shallow $109,773 liquidity pool unable to absorb meaningful sell pressure
  • -Usual protocol TVL decline or USD0 stablecoin instability reducing the fundamental value of USUALx staking rewards

Analysis Details

GeneratedSep 6, 2026, 10:16 PM UTC
Data FreshnessReal-time on-chain data
Model Confidence
Low

Data Snapshot

Price$0.021174749513
Market Cap$10.51M
24h Volume$11.9K
Holders8,082
Liquidity$109.8K

Data Sources

Codex DEX market data (price, volume, liquidity)
Daily OHLC price history
Aggregate holder count and top-10 concentration

Limitations

  • •Holder growth history, size-tier distribution, and acquisition-method data were unavailable for this chain — holder analysis is limited to aggregate count (8,082) and top-10 concentration (87.6%)
  • •Whale transaction data and smart-money cohort data were unavailable — individual large-holder behavior and profitable-trader positioning cannot be assessed
  • •Contract security data (audit status, vulnerability scan, contract verification) was unavailable on this chain's data provider — smart contract risk is rated at an uninformed default of medium
  • •Launch-transfer forensics and deployer profile data were unavailable — insider allocation and deployer intent cannot be assessed
  • •Extremely low daily trading volume (~$11,928) means price signals carry low statistical significance and are easily influenced by individual trades

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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