GEAR

Gearbox Price Today & AI Analysis

GEAREthereumAnalysis as of Sep 22, 2026

Price

$0.000602

+43.75% 24h

Contract

Live
0xba3335588d9403515223f109edc4eb7269a9ab5d

Chain

Ethereum

Holders

11.3K

Market cap

$6.02M

Liquidity

$201.94K

More tokens on Ethereum

DPIDPIDefiPulse Index$66.44-0.9%MC $6.36MMSFTonMSFTonMicrosoft (Ondo Tokenized)$504.3+1.3%MC $4.79MVIRTUALVIRTUALVirtual Protocol$0.7265+6.3%MC $478.33MEPICEPICEpic Chain$0.5428-12.4%MC $18.24MTONCOINTONCOINWrapped TON Coin$1.65+6.1%MC $4.59BUSDSUSDSUSDS$0.9999+0.0%MC $6.52B

Gearbox: holders, selling & liquidity

2026-09-22 17:45 UTC

Holder addresses

11,324

Top 10 supply share

54.20%

Reported liquidity

$195,579.00
How concentrated is Gearbox ownership?
As of 2026-09-22 17:45 UTC, the provider reports that the top 10 holder addresses hold 54.20% of supply. It reports 11,324 holder addresses in total. Addresses are not people; pool, exchange, burn and related addresses have not been independently classified here.
Are large holders selling Gearbox?
This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. As of 2026-09-22 17:45 UTC, the preceding 24-hour DEX volume was $31,013.00 in buys and $3,923.00 in sells. Those totals describe trading activity, not which holders traded. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.
Is Gearbox liquidity falling?
Sampled USD liquidity changed +15.09%, from $220,358.83 (2026-09-21 19:00 UTC) to $253,620.86 (2026-09-22 17:00 UTC). This compares the earliest and latest available samples, which may cover less than 24 hours. USD changes can reflect asset prices as well as liquidity deposits or withdrawals.
Sources, observations & limitations

Source: Codex token aggregates, hourly liquidity samples and recent DEX swaps. Token aggregates retrieved 2026-09-22 17:45 UTC; the provider may lag the chain. Buy/sell totals cover the preceding 24 hours. Observations are saved with this report and do not update live. Holder addresses are not unique people. The provider’s top-10 share is not adjusted here for pools, exchanges, burn addresses or related wallets. Sniper classifications and wallet-level holder history are unavailable. Inspect token on the block explorer.

Saved liquidity observations

Observation (UTC)Liquidity (USD)
2026-09-21 19:00 UTC$220,358.83
2026-09-21 20:00 UTC$220,511.12
2026-09-21 22:00 UTC$219,897.56
2026-09-21 23:00 UTC$220,887.31
2026-09-22 00:00 UTC$225,015.82
2026-09-22 01:00 UTC$224,675.91
2026-09-22 02:00 UTC$223,847.91
2026-09-22 03:00 UTC$222,814.62
2026-09-22 05:00 UTC$220,855.20
2026-09-22 08:00 UTC$220,969.68
2026-09-22 10:00 UTC$227,080.71
2026-09-22 12:00 UTC$224,190.41
2026-09-22 14:00 UTC$224,721.10
2026-09-22 15:00 UTC$253,582.15
2026-09-22 16:00 UTC$252,890.33
2026-09-22 17:00 UTC$253,620.86

Recent swap evidence

Up to 10 recent swaps returned by the provider within the preceding 24 hours. This is a sample, not all trades or a ranking of large holders.

Loading price chart…

Advanced charting powered by TradingView

Movement since report

report from Sep 22, 2026, 05:45 PM UTC

Market Cap

$5.66M

24h Volume

$34.94K

Liquidity

$195.58K

FDV

—

Holders

11,324

24h

Loading trading activity…

Ask Unhosted AI about GEAR

Continue in chat

What's Twitter saying?Sentiment, KOL mentions, top tweetsWhale activityWho is accumulating or distributingWhat are the risks?Red flags, security, concentrationShould I buy?Bull case, bear case, entry / exit

AI Executive Summary

Risk

High

Sentiment

Bullish

Gearbox (GEAR) is the governance token of the Gearbox lending/leverage protocol, trading at $0.000565595431808 with a $5,655,954 market cap that equals its fully diluted valuation since all 10 billion tokens are already circulating. The token, deployed 57.2 months ago, has seen a sharp rally of +69.6% over the past 7 days and now trades at the top of its 91-day range, backed by strong 24h buy pressure (88.8%) but on thin liquidity of $195,579. Top 10 wallets hold 54.2% of supply on an 11,324-holder base, though no per-wallet or growth-trend data is available to further classify that concentration.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Sep 22, 2026, 05:45 PM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Key points

  • Uses a reverse vote-escrow mechanism that reduces the voting weight of early contributors over time to amplify newer community members' influence
  • Fully circulating supply (10B/10B) means market cap equals FDV, eliminating future unlock-driven dilution
  • 57+ month operating history places it among the more established DeFi governance tokens still actively traded

Gearbox AI Price Analysis

Medium Confidence

Short-Term · 24h-7d

Bullish

GEAR just closed up roughly 32% day-over-day to $0.0005586, capping a 7-day gain of 69.6% and pushing price to 98% of its 91-day range. Buy-side dominance (88.8% of 24h volume, 16 unique buyers vs 7 sellers) confirms active demand, but the token is now pressing directly against its immediate/major resistance at $0.0005641 with no cushion above.

Medium-Term · 30d-90d

Bullish

The 30d (+47.4%) and 90d (+47.0%) changes are closely aligned with the 7d move, indicating this is a sustained multi-week uptrend rather than a one-off spike. A clean break and hold above $0.0005641 would put the token into price territory not seen in the trailing 91 days, but the size of the recent daily volatility (6.4% stdev) means retracements toward $0.0004359 remain likely along the way.

Bullish Factors

  • 7d/30d/90d changes of +69.6%/+47.4%/+47.0% show a consistent, non-noise uptrend across multiple timeframes
  • 24h buy volume of $31,013 vs sell volume of $3,923 (88.8% buy pressure) with 16 unique buyers against 7 unique sellers signals active net demand
  • Price closed the period at $0.0005586, 98% of the 91-day range, confirming a genuine breakout rather than a minor bounce

Bearish Factors

  • Price sits directly at the computed immediate/major resistance of $0.0005641 with zero room above before entering unmapped price territory, raising rejection/pullback risk
  • Total liquidity of only $195,579 against a $5.66M market cap is shallow, meaning any sizeable sell order can move price sharply
  • Daily return volatility of 6.4% combined with a 35%+ single-day price move suggests the rally is extended and prone to sharp mean-reversion

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

GEAR call history

Full track record →

Sep 22bullish
24hpending
7dpending
30dpending

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

Chain
Ethereum
Contract
0xba33...ab5d
Total Supply
—
Decimals
—

Key Risks

  • Price is extended at 98% of its 91-day range after a +69.6% 7-day rally, raising the probability of a near-term pullback toward the $0.0004359 immediate support
  • Thin liquidity of $195,579 relative to a $5.66M market cap/FDV means larger trades face meaningful slippage and price impact
  • 54.2% of supply concentrated in the top 10 wallets cannot be further classified (whale vs. protocol vs. exchange) due to lack of per-wallet data, leaving true dump risk unknown
  • No contract security audit data is available, so smart contract risk cannot be positively verified

Trading Insight

bullish

24h trading is dominated by buyers: $31,013 in buy volume versus $3,923 in sell volume, and 22 buy transactions against just 7 sells. This lopsided flow, combined with a rising unique-buyer count (16 vs 7 sellers), points to net accumulation pressure over the past day.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d)

Bullish

Medium-Term (30d)

Bullish

Daily closes climbed from $0.0003141 to $0.0005586 over the trailing series, with the final close representing a roughly 32% jump from the prior day. Both the 7d (+69.6%) and 30d (+47.4%) figures confirm this is an accelerating uptrend, not a single-day anomaly.

Momentum

Status

Overbought

With price sitting at 98% of the 91-day range and daily volatility running at 6.4%, momentum indicators point to an overbought, extended condition where short-term pullbacks are statistically more likely even within a broader uptrend.

Volume Analysis

Buy

88.8%

Sell

11.2%

Volume Trend

Increasing

24h volume is heavily buy-weighted ($31,013 buy vs $3,923 sell), and the concentration of transactions in the most recent 1h/4h windows suggests volume is building rather than fading, typically associated with breakout continuation attempts.

Recent Price Action

Price consolidated in a $0.0003100-$0.0004200 band for roughly two weeks before a sharp breakout candle pushed it to a new 91-day high of $0.0005586-$0.0005641.

This pattern — a multi-week base followed by a breakout on strong buy volume — often signals the start of a new trend leg, but breakouts that occur without an immediate retest of the breakout level (as here, price is still pinned at resistance) carry higher odds of a near-term pullback to retest support before continuing.

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$0.0004359

Major support

$0.0002968

Immediate resistance

$0.0005641

Major resistance

$0.0005641

Immediate and major resistance coincide at $0.0005641, the 91-day range high, meaning price is currently testing the ceiling of all recent trading activity with no historical resistance data above it. A hold above this level would represent a genuine breakout into uncharted territory over this lookback window, while failure to hold could send price back to the immediate support at $0.0004359, with the major support at $0.0002968 as the deeper floor from the recent basing range.

AI overall risk

High

Risk Score

66/100

Risk Breakdown

  • VolatilityHigh

    Daily return volatility of 6.4% and a +69.6% 7-day move indicate the token is in an extended, high-volatility phase where sharp reversals are common.

  • LiquidityHigh

    Total liquidity of $195,579 against a $5,655,954 market cap is shallow; trades of meaningful size relative to this pool can move price significantly, especially on a single Curve venue.

  • ConcentrationMedium

    Top 10 wallets hold 54.2% of supply in aggregate, but without per-wallet classification it is unknown whether this represents dumpable individual/whale holdings or protocol/exchange-controlled addresses, so a moderate default is applied.

  • Smart ContractNot assessed

    Contract or authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations.

  • RegulatoryMedium

    As a DeFi governance token tied to lending/leverage protocol decisions, GEAR carries the general regulatory uncertainty applicable to DeFi governance assets in various jurisdictions.

Key Risks

  • Price is extended at 98% of its 91-day range after a +69.6% 7-day rally, raising the probability of a near-term pullback toward the $0.0004359 immediate support
  • Thin liquidity of $195,579 relative to a $5.66M market cap/FDV means larger trades face meaningful slippage and price impact
  • 54.2% of supply concentrated in the top 10 wallets cannot be further classified (whale vs. protocol vs. exchange) due to lack of per-wallet data, leaving true dump risk unknown
  • No contract security audit data is available, so smart contract risk cannot be positively verified

Mitigating Factors

  • Fully circulating supply (market cap = FDV) removes future unlock-driven sell pressure
  • 57.2-month operating history and multi-channel social presence (Twitter, Telegram, Discord) suggest an established project rather than a fresh, unproven launch
  • Current 24h flow is strongly buy-dominated (88.8% buy pressure), indicating active demand rather than distribution at present

Investor Suitability

Best suited for experienced, risk-tolerant traders comfortable with high volatility, thin-liquidity DeFi governance tokens who can size positions to the available liquidity; not suitable for risk-averse or passive investors seeking capital preservation.

GEAR has broken out to a 91-day high on strong buy-side flow, with the multi-timeframe trend (7d/30d/90d all positive) supporting near-term bullish momentum, but the combination of an extended price move, thin liquidity, and unclassified holder concentration warrants caution around the current resistance level.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Medium probability

Buy pressure persists and GEAR clears the $0.0005641 resistance decisively, opening a path to new highs beyond the 91-day range as protocol activity and governance catalysts sustain demand.

  • Sustained 88.8% buy-side dominance in recent trading
  • Governance-related catalysts (treasury allocation, rate-setting votes) drawing attention to the token

Base Case

GEAR consolidates in a volatile range near the current resistance zone as buyers and profit-takers contest the breakout level before a clearer directional move emerges.

  • Buy-side flow needs to remain dominant to sustain a push above $0.0005641
  • Liquidity stays thin enough that price swings remain outsized relative to trade size

Bear Case

Medium probability

The rally stalls at resistance and price mean-reverts toward the $0.0004359 immediate support (or further to the $0.0002968 major support) as the extended +69.6% 7-day move unwinds, amplified by the shallow $195,579 liquidity pool.

  • High daily volatility (6.4% stdev) typical of parabolic extensions that later retrace
  • Thin liquidity magnifying downside moves if sellers step in

Analysis Details

Generated

Sep 22, 2026, 05:45 PM UTC

Saved observation

2026-09-22 17:45 UTC

Model Confidence

Medium

Data Snapshot

Price

$0.000565595431808

Market Cap

$5.66M

24h Volume

$34.9K

Holders

11,324

Liquidity

$195,579.00

Data Sources

Codex DEX market data (price, volume, liquidity)Daily OHLC price historyAggregate holder count and top-10 concentration

Limitations

  • Holder-growth history, holder size-tier distribution, whale-transaction records, smart-money cohort data, and contract-security data were all unavailable for this analysis
  • Per-wallet holder identity and classification data were not available, limiting concentration analysis to an aggregate top-10 percentage figure
  • Token genesis, deployer, and whale wallet forensics could not be inspected, so no insider-allocation or launch-fairness conclusions can be drawn

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Track GEAR