Kekec

The Balkan Dwarf Price Today & AI Analysis

Kekec
Ethereum·AI Analysis
Analysis as of Jun 17, 2026

$0.041717

-0.37%24h
LiveContract:0x8c7ac134ed985367eadc6f727d79e8295e11435cChain:EthereumHolders:5.3KMarket cap:$686.67KLiquidity:$135.29K

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Ask Unhosted AI about Kekec

What's Twitter saying?

Sentiment, KOL mentions, top tweets

Whale activity

Who is accumulating or distributing

What are the risks?

Red flags, security, concentration

Should I buy?

Bull case, bear case, entry / exit

Movement since reportreport from Jun 17, 2026, 12:01 AM UTC
Market Cap

$1.23M

24h Volume

$71.90K

Liquidity

$308.64K

FDV

—

Holders

5.2K

24HLoading trading activity…

Holder Insights

Live

Total holders

—

AI Executive Summary

The Balkan Dwarf (Kekec) is a 31.6-month-old Ethereum meme token with a $1.23M market cap and $308K in Uniswap v2 liquidity, built around a cultural tribute to a Balkan folk character. After a prolonged low-price period, the token has staged a meaningful recovery — up +56.7% over 7 days and +19.5% over 30 days — with its holder base growing steadily to 5,220 wallets. Concentration risk is lower than the raw top-10 figure of 26% suggests, as 12.25% sits in the Uniswap pool and 2.35% in burn addresses, leaving genuine dumpable supply at 16.8%. The token remains a high-risk speculative meme asset with no utility beyond community and cultural identity, and its 68/100 security score warrants caution.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Jun 17, 2026, 12:01 AM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Risk: high
Sentiment: bullish
Cultural niche: one of very few Ethereum meme tokens tied to Balkan folk heritage, giving it a geographically specific community identity
Longevity: at 31.6 months old, Kekec has survived far longer than the vast majority of meme tokens launched in the same cohort, suggesting a resilient core holder base
Low genuine dump risk: with 14.37% of supply locked in protocol/burn addresses and dumpable supply capped at 16.8%, the token's float is less exposed to coordinated whale exits than many peers

The Balkan Dwarf AI Price Analysis

Low Confidence
Short-Term24h-7d
Bullish

Kekec has posted a strong +56.7% gain over the past 7 days and +19.5% over 30 days, establishing a clear short-term uptrend. The current price of $0.00003153 sits at 47% of the 82-day range, leaving meaningful room toward the immediate resistance at $0.00003546 before the token becomes technically stretched. Buy pressure at 61.9% of 24h volume and a 130-to-78 buy/sell transaction ratio reinforce near-term bullish momentum.

Medium-Term30d-90d
Bullish

The 30-day uptrend of +19.5% combined with accelerating holder growth (net +93 over 31 days, trajectory steepening) suggests sustained community accumulation rather than a one-off pump. If the token clears immediate resistance at $0.00003546, the next meaningful ceiling is the 82-day high at $0.00004950, representing a further ~57% upside from current levels. However, daily volatility of 7.9% means drawdowns to major support at $0.00001576 remain plausible during any broader market weakness.

Bullish Factors
  • +7-day price appreciation of +56.7% and 30-day gain of +19.5% confirm a multi-window uptrend, not a single-candle spike
  • +Buy pressure accounts for 61.9% of 24h volume ($44,497 buys vs $27,398 sells), indicating net capital inflow
  • +Holder base has grown from 5,127 to 5,220 over 31 days with an accelerating trajectory, signalling broadening community adoption
  • +Dumpable supply is only 16.8% of total supply — the largest holder (12.25%) is the Uniswap liquidity contract and is non-dumpable, keeping genuine whale dump risk contained
Bearish Factors
  • -Daily return volatility of 7.9% means the token can retrace to immediate support at $0.00002421 within a single session without any structural breakdown
  • -The six smart-money wallets all show identical realized PnL of +$21,786 at +296% over exactly 40 trades each — this statistical uniformity is anomalous and may indicate wash trading or data artefacts, undermining confidence in organic demand signals
  • -Security score of 68/100 leaves meaningful smart-contract risk unresolved for a token with $1.23M market cap
  • -Largest individual whale (0x57408c…, 1.76% of supply) holds an average buy price of $0.00005514 — well above the current price of $0.00003153 — creating latent sell pressure if the token approaches their cost basis

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

Kekec call history

Full track record →
Jun 17bullish
24h-5.0%
7d-16.2%
30d-32.5%

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

ChainEthereum
Contract0x8c7a...435c
Total Supply—
Decimals—

Key Risks

•Meme token dependency on social momentum: without a viral catalyst or sustained community growth, trading volume and price can collapse rapidly — the token's own history shows it spent extended periods near the $0.00001576 range low
•Anomalous smart-money data (six wallets with identical $21,786 PnL at +296% over exactly 40 trades) raises the possibility of wash trading or coordinated activity that could be masking artificial volume inflation
•The largest individual whale (0x57408c…, 1.76% of supply) holds an average buy price of $0.00005514 — 75% above current price — and has made 11 trades with $0 realized profit, representing a motivated seller if the token approaches their cost basis

Trading Insight

bullish

Trading sentiment is net bullish, with buy transactions outnumbering sells 130 to 78 over 24 hours and buy volume ($44,497) exceeding sell volume ($27,398) by a ratio of roughly 1.6:1. Activity has cooled in the most recent hour (5 buys, 1 sell) after a more active 4-hour window, suggesting the immediate momentum is consolidating rather than accelerating.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d):
Bullish
Medium-Term (30d):
Bullish

The daily OHLC series shows a clear recovery from the period low of $0.00001576, with the 14 most recent closes tracing a staircase pattern from $0.00001928 up to $0.00003153. Both the 7-day (+56.7%) and 30-day (+19.5%) windows confirm the uptrend across multiple timeframes. The current price at 47% of the 82-day range indicates the token is in the middle of its historical band — not yet at an extreme that would suggest imminent exhaustion.

Momentum

Status:
Neutral

After a sharp 7-day rally of +56.7%, the token is showing early signs of momentum deceleration — the 4-hour price change of -5.17% and 1-hour change of -0.95% suggest the immediate impulse is fading. The price remains well above the recent consolidation base around $0.00001850–$0.00002000, so momentum is cooling rather than reversing. A period of consolidation between $0.00002421 support and $0.00003546 resistance would be technically constructive.

Volume Analysis

Buy 61.9%Sell 38.1%

Volume Trend: Stable

24-hour volume of $71,895 combined ($44,497 buys + $27,398 sells) is modest relative to the $308K liquidity pool but represents active participation for a $1.23M market cap meme token. The declining transaction count from 77 trades in the 4-hour window to just 6 in the 1-hour window suggests volume is tapering as the initial rally momentum exhausts.

Recent Price Action

The 14-candle daily close sequence shows a base-building phase between $0.00001614 and $0.00002030 for approximately 10 days, followed by a three-candle breakout sequence: $0.00002337 → $0.00002493 → $0.00003153. This is a classic accumulation-then-breakout structure.

The breakout from the $0.00001614–$0.00002030 consolidation range on expanding closes suggests genuine demand absorption before the move. The prior consolidation zone ($0.00002337–$0.00002493) now acts as a secondary support shelf if the token pulls back from current levels.

Key Price Levels

Support
Immediate$0.00002421
Major$0.00001576
Resistance
Immediate$0.00003546
Major$0.00004950

Immediate support at $0.00002421 aligns closely with the recent breakout candle cluster ($0.00002337–$0.00002493), making it a high-conviction level to hold for bulls. Major support at $0.00001576 represents the 82-day range low and a full round-trip of the recent rally. On the upside, immediate resistance at $0.00003546 is the first meaningful ceiling; a confirmed close above it would open a path toward the 82-day high of $0.00004950, which represents the major resistance and ultimate bull-case target within the current data window.

Holder Metrics

Total Holders5,220
24h Change+34
Growth Rate+0.65%

The 31-day holder trajectory from 5,127 to 5,220 with an accelerating growth pattern indicates that the recent price appreciation is attracting new participants rather than simply reflecting existing holders trading among themselves. At 5,220 holders for a $1.23M market cap meme token on Ethereum, the community base is modest but growing consistently.

Holder Distribution

Top 10 Holders26%
Top 100 Holders63%
Retail Holders37.0%
Concentration Risk:
Low

The headline top-10 concentration of 26% is misleading in isolation. Once the Uniswap liquidity pool (12.25%) and burn addresses (2.35%) are excluded as non-dumpable, the remaining eight individual whales in the top 10 hold a combined ~11.4% of supply. Total dumpable supply across all classified individual whales is 16.8% — a low concentration risk figure that limits the damage any coordinated exit could inflict on price.

Whale Activity

Sentiment:
Mixed

The largest recent on-chain swaps are dominated by wallet 0xc4bb1b…, which executed sells of $1,963, $1,863, and $1,107 alongside a buy of $1,112 — a pattern consistent with range trading rather than directional distribution. Wallet 0x300489… sold $1,805 and 0xb9332b… (a smart-money wallet) sold $1,049, suggesting some profit-taking by active traders.

  • •0xc4bb1b… sold $1,963 — largest single trade in the recent window, part of a pattern of active two-way trading by this wallet
  • •0xb9332b… sold $1,049 — one of the six smart-money wallets with +$21,786 realized PnL taking partial profits

Whale activity is mixed rather than uniformly distributing. The dominant active wallet (0xc4bb1b…) is trading both sides, which is more consistent with a market-maker or swing trader than a whale executing a clean exit. The three profiled top holders are all sitting at unrealized losses relative to their average buy prices, reducing the probability of near-term panic selling from that cohort.

Smart Money Indicators

Confidence:
Low
Profit-Taking Risk:
Medium

Six wallets each show identical realized PnL of +$21,786 at +296% over exactly 40 trades. This statistical uniformity — six independent wallets with precisely the same PnL, return percentage, and trade count — is highly anomalous and may reflect data aggregation artefacts, a shared bot strategy, or wash-trading activity.

The anomalous uniformity of the smart-money data significantly reduces its analytical value. If taken at face value, +296% realized returns suggest these wallets entered at approximately $0.0000106 and have been systematically taking profits — with 0xb9332b… confirmed selling $1,049 in the recent trade window. However, the identical figures across six wallets mean this data should not be used as a high-conviction signal without independent verification.

Liquidity Analysis

Total Liquidity$308,636
Depth:
Moderate
Slippage Risk:
Medium

At $308,636, the Uniswap v2 liquidity pool represents approximately 25% of the token's $1.23M market cap — a reasonable ratio for a meme token of this size. However, the largest recent trades ($1,963 sell) represent roughly 0.6% of the pool, meaning trades in the $5,000–$10,000 range would begin to experience meaningful slippage. Traders executing larger positions should account for price impact on Uniswap v2's constant-product AMM.

Overall Risk:
High
68/100

Risk Breakdown

Volatility
High

Daily return volatility of 7.9% (standard deviation of daily returns) means the token can move ±7.9% on an average day, with the 82-day range spanning from $0.00001576 to $0.00004950 — a 3.1x spread. This is consistent with high-volatility micro-cap meme token behaviour.

Liquidity
Medium

The $308,636 Uniswap v2 liquidity pool is moderate for a $1.23M market cap token, but trades above ~$5,000 will incur meaningful slippage. The v2 AMM structure also means LP removal is possible without timelock protection.

Concentration
Low

Dumpable supply is 16.8% of total tokens. The largest single holder (12.25%) is the Uniswap liquidity contract and is non-dumpable. The three profiled individual whales are all sitting at unrealized losses, reducing near-term exit incentive.

Smart Contract
Medium

The contract is verified (positive) but scores 68/100 on the security assessment, leaving unspecified risks. The token has operated for 31.6 months without a known exploit, which provides some empirical comfort but does not eliminate the risk.

Regulatory
Medium

As a meme token on Ethereum with no utility, Kekec faces the same regulatory uncertainty as all speculative crypto assets in jurisdictions that may classify such tokens as unregistered securities or subject them to anti-speculation rules.

Key Risks

  • •Meme token dependency on social momentum: without a viral catalyst or sustained community growth, trading volume and price can collapse rapidly — the token's own history shows it spent extended periods near the $0.00001576 range low
  • •Anomalous smart-money data (six wallets with identical $21,786 PnL at +296% over exactly 40 trades) raises the possibility of wash trading or coordinated activity that could be masking artificial volume inflation
  • •The largest individual whale (0x57408c…, 1.76% of supply) holds an average buy price of $0.00005514 — 75% above current price — and has made 11 trades with $0 realized profit, representing a motivated seller if the token approaches their cost basis

Mitigating Factors

  • •31.6 months of on-chain survival with no known exploit or rug event provides meaningful empirical evidence of project persistence relative to the meme token cohort
  • •100% circulating supply with no future unlock schedule eliminates inflation and vesting-cliff sell pressure as risk factors

Investor Suitability

Suitable only for high-risk-tolerant speculators who understand meme token dynamics, can afford to lose their entire position, and are participating for cultural/community reasons or short-term trading. Not appropriate for investors seeking fundamental value, yield, or capital preservation.

Kekec is a speculative meme token whose investment case rests entirely on community momentum and the continuation of its current technical uptrend. The multi-window price recovery (+56.7% 7d, +19.5% 30d) and accelerating holder growth provide a short-term bullish thesis, while the absence of utility and thin liquidity cap the medium-term upside and amplify downside risk.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case
Low

Community momentum accelerates via social media virality, driving new holder acquisition beyond the current +93/month pace. The token breaks above immediate resistance at $0.00003546 on sustained volume, targeting the 82-day high of $0.00004950 — a further ~57% gain from current levels. Broader meme token market enthusiasm (e.g., during a bull market cycle) provides a rising tide.

  • +Viral social media catalyst on Twitter or Telegram driving a new wave of retail buyers to the token's cultural narrative
  • +Sustained buy-side dominance (currently 61.9%) converting into a confirmed breakout above $0.00003546 with volume expansion
Base Case

Kekec consolidates between immediate support ($0.00002421) and immediate resistance ($0.00003546) over the next 30–60 days, with holder growth continuing at a modest pace of 50–100 new wallets per month. Price oscillates within the range driven by periodic community activity spikes, without a sustained breakout in either direction.

  • •No major viral catalyst emerges to drive a new wave of retail buying beyond the current community base
  • •The broader Ethereum meme token market remains in a holding pattern without a significant bull or bear macro event
Bear Case
Medium

Post-rally momentum fades as the 7.9% daily volatility reasserts itself, with the token retracing to the immediate support at $0.00002421 or further to the major support at $0.00001576. The whale at 0x57408c… (avg buy $0.00005514) continues to hold but creates a ceiling effect as the token approaches their cost basis. Broader meme token fatigue or a crypto market downturn accelerates the decline.

  • -Deceleration of trading activity (1-hour window already down to 6 transactions) indicating the immediate rally impulse is exhausting without a new catalyst
  • -Overhead supply from underwater whales (two of three profiled whales have average buy prices above current price) creating resistance as the token recovers toward their cost basis

Analysis Details

GeneratedJun 17, 2026, 12:01 AM UTC
Data FreshnessReal-time on-chain data as of analysis timestamp
Model Confidence
Low

Data Snapshot

Price$0.000031531309331296
Market Cap$1.23M
24h Volume$71.9K
Holders5,220
Liquidity$308.6K

Data Sources

On-chain transaction data (Uniswap v2 swap history)
Holder distribution analytics (Moralis holder tier classification)
Daily OHLC price history (82-day window)
Smart contract security assessment (68/100 score)
Whale wallet behavioural profiling (realized PnL, average buy price, first active date)
Smart money realized PnL data (flagged as anomalous — identical figures across six wallets)

Limitations

  • •Smart money data shows statistically anomalous identical PnL figures across six wallets, reducing confidence in that signal and suggesting possible data artefacts or wash trading
  • •No 90-day price change is available (listed as n/a), limiting the ability to assess the full medium-term trend context
  • •Moralis holder tier thresholds (whale, shark, dolphin, fish, octopus) are not publicly defined, preventing precise supply-weighted analysis of each tier
  • •Security score of 68/100 references unspecified risks that cannot be fully assessed without reviewing the verified contract source code directly

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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