alETH

Alchemix ETH Price Today & AI Analysis

alETH
Ethereum·AI Analysis
Analysis as of Sep 3, 2026

$2,311.17

-2.10%24h
LiveContract:0x0100546f2cd4c9d97f798ffc9755e47865ff7ee6Chain:EthereumHolders:404Market cap:$19.26MLiquidity:$428.20K

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Movement since reportreport from Sep 3, 2026, 01:30 AM UTC
Market Cap

$19.26M

24h Volume

$37.20K

Liquidity

$428.20K

FDV

—

Holders

404

24HLoading trading activity…

Holder Insights

Live

Total holders

—

AI Executive Summary

Alchemix ETH (alETH) is a synthetic ETH-pegged token issued by Alchemix Finance, a DeFi protocol that allows users to take self-repaying loans against ETH collateral — alETH represents a fungible claim on that collateral. The token is 62.7 months old, launched in June 2021, and trades on Curve with a market cap of approximately $19.26 million and a total supply of 8,334 tokens. Over the past 90 days alETH has appreciated 51.8%, reflecting both ETH's broader price recovery and continued Alchemix protocol usage, though the current 7-day pullback of 5.3% and very thin trading activity (12 transactions in 24h) highlight that this is a low-liquidity, niche DeFi instrument. The top 10 holders control 66.1% of supply, and with only 404 total holders, alETH is a highly concentrated asset suited to sophisticated DeFi participants rather than general retail investors.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Sep 3, 2026, 01:30 AM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Risk: high
Sentiment: bearish
Self-repaying loan mechanism: alETH is minted against ETH collateral in Alchemix, meaning the underlying yield automatically repays the debt over time — a unique DeFi primitive
Synthetic ETH peg with real collateral backing: unlike algorithmic stablecoins, alETH is overcollateralized by actual ETH deposited in the Alchemix protocol
Curve-native liquidity: alETH trades primarily on Curve Finance, integrating it into the broader Curve/Convex DeFi ecosystem and making it accessible for yield strategies

Alchemix ETH AI Price Analysis

Medium Confidence
Short-Term24h-7d
Bearish

alETH has declined 5.3% over the past 7 days, with the recent daily close sequence showing a clear step-down from $2,468.74 to $2,311.17 over the last 14 sessions. The price sits at 84% of its 90-day range, meaning it has pulled back from near-cycle highs, and the immediate resistance at $2,320.78 is now overhead — a level that was previously a daily close and now acts as a near-term ceiling. Sell pressure dominates at 60.9% of 24h volume, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias.

Medium-Term30d-90d
Bullish

The 30-day gain of +27.0% and 90-day gain of +51.8% establish a strong underlying uptrend that the current 7-day pullback has not invalidated. alETH's price at 84% of its 91-day range indicates the token remains in the upper portion of its recent trading band, and the major support at $1,473.89 is far below current levels, providing a wide structural floor. A resumption of the broader ETH-correlated uptrend and continued Alchemix protocol adoption could push price back toward the major resistance at $2,475.63.

Bullish Factors
  • +90-day price appreciation of +51.8% and 30-day gain of +27.0% confirm a sustained structural uptrend that a single-week pullback has not broken
  • +Price sits at 84% of the 91-day range ($1,473.89–$2,475.63), meaning the token has retained the majority of its cycle gains and has not given back the bulk of its advance
  • +alETH is a synthetic ETH asset backed by real ETH collateral in the Alchemix protocol, giving it fundamental price support tied to ETH's own value
Bearish Factors
  • -The 7-day decline of -5.3% is accompanied by a descending sequence of daily closes from $2,468.74 to $2,311.17, indicating near-term selling momentum
  • -24h sell pressure stands at 60.9% ($22,640 sell volume vs. $14,560 buy volume), with 7 unique sellers versus only 3 unique buyers, showing active distribution at current levels
  • -Total liquidity of only $428,203 means even modest sell orders can move the price materially, amplifying downside risk during any broader market stress

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

alETH call history

Full track record →
Sep 3bearish
24hpending
7dpending
30dpending

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

ChainEthereum
Contract0x0100...7ee6
Total Supply—
Decimals—

Key Risks

•Liquidity crisis risk: with only $428,203 in Curve pool liquidity, any significant market event or large holder exit could cause alETH to depeg materially from ETH, triggering cascading liquidations or loss of confidence in the peg mechanism
•Concentration risk under uncertainty: the top 10 holders control 66.1% of supply, and without per-wallet classification, it is unknown how much represents dumpable individual positions — a worst-case scenario where these are individual whales could overwhelm the thin liquidity
•Protocol dependency risk: alETH's value is entirely contingent on Alchemix Finance's continued operation, smart contract integrity, and the yield strategies generating returns to repay loans — any protocol-level failure would directly impair alETH's collateral backing

Trading Insight

bearish

Current market sentiment for alETH is mildly bearish, driven by a 60.9% sell-pressure ratio and a net outflow of $8,080 in the past 24 hours across only 12 total transactions. Trading activity is extremely thin — 3 unique buyers versus 7 unique sellers — suggesting that the few participants active in this market are net sellers at current price levels near the recent high.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d):
Bearish
Medium-Term (30d):
Bullish

The short-term trend is bearish: the 14-session daily close sequence from $2,468.74 down to $2,311.17 shows a clear descending pattern, and the 7-day return of -5.3% confirms near-term selling pressure. However, the medium-term trend remains firmly bullish — the 30-day return of +27.0% and 90-day return of +51.8% demonstrate that the current pullback is a retracement within a larger uptrend, not a trend reversal. The price at 84% of the 91-day range supports this interpretation.

Momentum

Status:
Overbought

After a 51.8% gain over 90 days, alETH is experiencing a natural momentum cooldown. The price peaked near $2,475.63 (the 91-day high) and has since pulled back approximately 6.6% from that level. The daily volatility of 3.0% (standard deviation of daily returns) is moderate, suggesting the pullback is orderly rather than panic-driven, but the consecutive lower closes indicate momentum has shifted to the downside in the near term.

Volume Analysis

Buy 39.1%Sell 60.9%

Volume Trend: Stable

Trading volume is consistently minimal — 12 transactions totaling $37,200 in 24 hours — which is structurally normal for alETH as a DeFi collateral token rather than a speculative asset. Volume does not provide a meaningful directional signal here; the token's price is driven more by ETH's underlying price and Alchemix protocol flows than by secondary market trading activity.

Recent Price Action

The 14-day close sequence shows a descending staircase pattern: an initial high near $2,468.74, a series of lower highs and lower lows culminating at $2,311.17, with no sustained recovery above $2,430 in the final 10 sessions.

This descending pattern following a 90-day uptrend is consistent with a mean-reversion pullback or distribution phase near cycle highs. The key question is whether $2,307.77 immediate support holds — a break below that level would open a path toward the next significant support zone, while a reclaim of $2,320.78 resistance would signal stabilization.

Key Price Levels

Support
Immediate$2,307.77
Major$1,473.89
Resistance
Immediate$2,320.78
Major$2,475.63

The immediate support at $2,307.77 and immediate resistance at $2,320.78 form an extremely tight $12.99 range around the current price of $2,311.17, indicating the token is at a critical near-term decision point. A break below $2,307.77 would leave the next meaningful floor at the 91-day low of $1,473.89 — a 36% drop — highlighting the absence of intermediate support levels. The major resistance at $2,475.63 represents the 91-day high and would be the target for any bullish recovery.

Overall Risk:
High
68/100

Risk Breakdown

Volatility
Medium

Daily return volatility of 3.0% (standard deviation) is moderate for a crypto asset. The 90-day range of $1,473.89 to $2,475.63 represents a 67.9% spread, reflecting significant price swings. However, as a synthetic ETH tracker, alETH's volatility is structurally tied to ETH's own volatility rather than speculative excess.

Liquidity
High

Total liquidity of $428,203 is extremely shallow relative to the $19.26M market cap — a liquidity-to-market-cap ratio of just 2.2%. A trade of $50,000 would represent over 11% of the entire liquidity pool, guaranteeing severe slippage. This is the most acute near-term risk for any participant needing to exit a meaningful position.

Concentration
High

The top 10 holders control 66.1% of supply across only 404 total holders. Per-wallet classification data is unavailable, so it cannot be determined how much of this concentration represents protocol contracts (non-dumpable) versus individual wallets (dumpable). Given this uncertainty, concentration risk must be rated high until wallet-level data confirms otherwise.

Smart Contract
Medium

No contract security data is available on this chain's data provider, so this rating is an uninformed default rather than an actual assessment. The token's 62.7-month operational history without a known catastrophic exploit provides some comfort, but the absence of security scoring data means this risk cannot be formally evaluated.

Regulatory
Medium

As a synthetic asset and DeFi lending instrument, alETH operates in a regulatory gray area in most jurisdictions. Increased scrutiny of DeFi protocols, synthetic assets, or collateralized lending products could impact Alchemix's operations and alETH's utility. This is a sector-wide risk rather than alETH-specific.

Key Risks

  • •Liquidity crisis risk: with only $428,203 in Curve pool liquidity, any significant market event or large holder exit could cause alETH to depeg materially from ETH, triggering cascading liquidations or loss of confidence in the peg mechanism
  • •Concentration risk under uncertainty: the top 10 holders control 66.1% of supply, and without per-wallet classification, it is unknown how much represents dumpable individual positions — a worst-case scenario where these are individual whales could overwhelm the thin liquidity
  • •Protocol dependency risk: alETH's value is entirely contingent on Alchemix Finance's continued operation, smart contract integrity, and the yield strategies generating returns to repay loans — any protocol-level failure would directly impair alETH's collateral backing

Mitigating Factors

  • •62.7 months of operational history through multiple market cycles, including the severe 2022 DeFi bear market, demonstrates protocol resilience and reduces the probability of a sudden collapse
  • •Real ETH collateral backing provides a fundamental price floor that purely algorithmic synthetic assets lack — alETH cannot go to zero as long as the underlying collateral remains intact and redeemable

Investor Suitability

alETH is suitable only for sophisticated DeFi participants who understand synthetic asset mechanics, self-repaying loan protocols, and are comfortable with high concentration risk and very thin liquidity. It is not appropriate for retail investors seeking liquid, easily tradable assets. Participants are most likely existing Alchemix protocol users managing their loan positions rather than external investors seeking price appreciation.

alETH presents a compelling medium-term case as a synthetic ETH instrument riding the 51.8% 90-day uptrend, but the near-term picture is bearish following a 5.3% 7-day pullback from cycle highs. The core thesis is not speculative price appreciation but rather protocol utility — alETH's value proposition is enabling ETH holders to access liquidity without selling, and its price performance is structurally tied to ETH's trajectory.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case
Medium

ETH continues its broader recovery, driving alETH back toward the 91-day high of $2,475.63 and potentially beyond. Increased DeFi activity boosts Alchemix protocol TVL, driving new alETH minting and improving liquidity depth on Curve. The self-repaying loan mechanism attracts new users seeking non-liquidatable leverage.

  • +Sustained ETH price appreciation above $2,475 that pulls alETH to new cycle highs
  • +Growth in Alchemix protocol TVL and user adoption, increasing alETH supply and Curve liquidity depth
Base Case

alETH consolidates in the $2,307–$2,475 range over the medium term, tracking ETH's price with modest premium/discount fluctuations. The token continues to serve its primary function as a DeFi collateral instrument with limited secondary market trading activity, and the 30-90 day uptrend gradually reasserts itself as the current pullback exhausts.

  • •ETH price remains broadly stable or continues its gradual recovery, providing the fundamental anchor for alETH's value
  • •Alchemix protocol continues operating without major smart contract incidents, maintaining confidence in alETH's collateral backing
Bear Case
Medium

The 7-day downtrend accelerates, breaking the immediate support at $2,307.77. With no meaningful intermediate support between current levels and the 91-day low of $1,473.89, a broader ETH market correction could see alETH fall 20-30% from current levels. Thin liquidity amplifies any downside move, and large holder exits could cause a temporary depeg from ETH.

  • -Broader ETH market correction that breaks the $2,307.77 immediate support and triggers a cascade toward major support at $1,473.89
  • -Large holder exit overwhelming the $428,203 Curve liquidity pool, causing a significant temporary depeg from ETH's price

Analysis Details

GeneratedSep 3, 2026, 01:30 AM UTC
Data FreshnessReal-time on-chain data
Model Confidence
Medium

Data Snapshot

Price$2311.16765381
Market Cap$19.26M
24h Volume$37.2K
Holders404
Liquidity$428.2K

Data Sources

Codex DEX market data (price, volume, liquidity)
Daily OHLC price history
Aggregate holder count and top-10 concentration

Limitations

  • •Holder growth history and size-tier distribution data were unavailable for this chain, preventing assessment of whether the holder base is growing or declining and how supply is distributed across wallet size categories
  • •Whale transaction data was unavailable, meaning individual large-holder behavior, acquisition methods, and recent movements cannot be assessed
  • •Contract security data was unavailable on this chain's data provider, so no formal smart contract audit status, vulnerability assessment, or security score could be produced
  • •Extremely low trading activity (12 transactions in 24h) means short-term price signals carry very high noise-to-signal ratios and should be interpreted with caution

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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