MPLX

Metaplex Price Today & AI Analysis

MPLXBNB ChainAnalysis as of Jul 3, 2026

Price

$0.0561

+1.34% 24h

Contract

Live
0x75a5863a19af60ec0098d62ed8c34cc594fb470f

Holders

782

Market cap

$714.35K

Liquidity

$289.35K

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Metaplex: holders, selling & liquidity

2026-07-03 04:15 UTC

Holder addresses

477

Top 10 supply share

Not available

Reported liquidity

$432,602.51
How concentrated is Metaplex ownership?
Top-10 ownership concentration is not available in this report. The saved holder count is 477 addresses (2026-07-03 04:15 UTC). A holder count alone does not establish how supply is distributed.
Are large holders selling Metaplex?
This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. A complete buy/sell volume observation is not available in the saved inputs. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.
Is Metaplex liquidity falling?
As of 2026-07-03 04:15 UTC, reported liquidity was $432,602.51. At least two timestamped liquidity observations are needed to establish a change; this report does not have them.
Sources, observations & limitations

Source: inputs saved with the report generated 2026-07-03 04:15 UTC. Original provider retrieval times and historical samples were not recorded. Legacy zero placeholders are treated as unavailable. Holder addresses are not unique people. The provider’s top-10 share is not adjusted here for pools, exchanges, burn addresses or related wallets. Sniper classifications and wallet-level holder history are unavailable. Inspect token on the block explorer.

Recent swap evidence

Swap evidence is unavailable for this report.

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Movement since report

report from Jul 3, 2026, 04:15 AM UTC

Market Cap

$15.98M

24h Volume

$662.88K

Liquidity

$432.60K

FDV

—

Holders

477

24h

Loading trading activity…

AI Executive Summary

Risk

Very high

Sentiment

Bullish

This token presents as 'Metaplex (MPLX)' on BNB Chain, claiming to be the infrastructure standard for Solana NFT and token launches — a description that matches the legitimate Metaplex project, which is native to Solana, not BNB Chain. The token is 13.1 months old with a $16M market cap, $432K in liquidity, and a genuine multi-week uptrend (+53.6% over 7 days, +34.5% over 30 days). However, the structural picture is deeply concerning: 100% of supply is held by the top 10 wallets, the largest single wallet controls 54.1% via a non-market transfer, and the holder base has shrunk 82% in 30 days. Investors should treat the chain/project mismatch as a primary red flag before any other analysis.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Jul 3, 2026, 04:15 AM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Key points

  • Deployed on BNB Chain while claiming to be Solana-native Metaplex infrastructure — a chain/identity mismatch that is a primary impersonation/fraud signal
  • Extreme supply concentration: a single wallet holds 54.1% via airdrop/transfer with no DEX swap history, representing unincentivized insider supply
  • Holder base has declined 82% over 30 days while price has risen 34.5% — a rare and dangerous divergence suggesting the rally is driven by a tiny, concentrated group

Metaplex AI Price Analysis

Low Confidence

Short-Term · 24h-7d

Bullish

MPLX has surged 53.6% over the past 7 days and 34.5% over 30 days, with the current price at $0.02986 sitting at 82% of its 69-day range — a strong uptrend by any multi-window measure. The token is pressing toward the immediate resistance at $0.03252, and sustained buy pressure at 54.7% with 1,143 buy transactions versus 963 sell transactions in the past 24 hours supports continued near-term momentum. However, the sharp single-session move and proximity to the range high elevate the risk of a short-term pullback toward the $0.02084 immediate support.

Medium-Term · 30d-90d

Bullish

The 30-day trend of +34.5% and a consistent series of higher daily closes from $0.01851 to $0.02986 establish a genuine uptrend rather than a one-day spike. If MPLX can break and hold above the $0.03252 range high, price discovery above the 69-day ceiling becomes possible. The critical counterweight is the severe holder exodus — down 82% over 30 days from 861 to 477 holders — which signals that the rally is being driven by a shrinking, increasingly concentrated base rather than broad adoption.

Bullish Factors

  • 7-day price gain of +53.6% and 30-day gain of +34.5% confirm a sustained multi-window uptrend, not a single-day noise event
  • Current price at 82% of the 69-day range ($0.01775–$0.03252) shows strong recovery from lows and proximity to a potential breakout level
  • Net buy flow over 24 hours: $362,358 in buy volume versus $300,525 in sell volume, with buy pressure at 54.7% and 1,143 buys versus 963 sells
  • Metaplex's described role as infrastructure for 99% of Solana token/NFT launches and $10B+ in transaction value provides a real-world utility narrative that could attract fundamental buyers

Bearish Factors

  • Holder count has collapsed 82% over 30 days (861 → 477), indicating mass capitulation or exit by the broader holder base even as price rises — a divergence that historically precedes sharp corrections
  • The largest individual wallet (0x93deb6…) holds 54.1% of supply, acquired via transfer/airdrop with no DEX swap history, and was first active on 2025-04-17 — a classic insider/airdrop allocation that represents an unincentivized, non-market-bought position with full dump capability
  • Dumpable supply stands at 56.5% (individual whales plus any labelled team/deployer wallets), meaning more than half the circulating supply could be sold into the market at any time
  • The token is deployed on BNB Chain (0x38) under the name 'Metaplex' — a project whose native token trades on Solana — raising the possibility this is a copycat or unofficial wrapper, which is a significant fraud/impersonation risk

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

MPLX call history

Full track record →

Jul 3bullish
24h+48.8%
7d+6.9%
30d-23.7%

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

Chain
BNB Chain
Contract
0x75a5...470f
Total Supply
—
Decimals
—

Key Risks

  • Chain/identity mismatch: The real Metaplex MPLX token is native to Solana; this contract is on BNB Chain. This is either an unofficial bridge, a community fork, or an impersonation — all of which carry significant capital loss risk for investors expecting exposure to the legitimate Metaplex protocol.
  • Single-wallet dump risk: The 54.1% individual whale (0x93deb6…) holds its position via a non-market transfer/airdrop, meaning it has no cost basis from market purchases and faces no psychological barrier to selling at any price. A single decision by this wallet could eliminate the majority of market liquidity.
  • Holder attrition divergence: The 82% decline in holders over 30 days while price rises is a classic pump-and-dump divergence pattern — insiders or coordinated actors accumulate while retail exits, then price is driven up before the concentrated holders distribute.

Trading Insight

bullish

Short-term trading sentiment is net bullish based on buy/sell flow ratios, but the score is tempered significantly by the structural concentration and holder exodus. The 24-hour window shows 1,143 buys versus 963 sells and $362K versus $300K in respective volumes, confirming active net inflow. However, the activity is concentrated in a small cohort — only 257 unique buyers and 214 unique sellers — suggesting thin, easily manipulated order flow rather than broad market participation.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d)

Bullish

Medium-Term (30d)

Bullish

The daily OHLC series shows a clear base-building phase from $0.01851 to $0.01997 over roughly 10 days, followed by a breakout close at $0.02986 — a 50%+ single-session move off the prior consolidation. Both the 7-day (+53.6%) and 30-day (+34.5%) windows confirm the uptrend is multi-window, not a single-candle anomaly. The price sitting at 82% of the 69-day range ($0.01775–$0.03252) confirms the token is in the upper portion of its established range.

Momentum

Status

Overbought

A 50%+ single-session close following a multi-week uptrend, with price at 82% of the 69-day range and pressing against the $0.03252 major resistance, places momentum firmly in overbought territory. Daily volatility of 6.0% (standard deviation of daily returns) is elevated, and the recent acceleration in transaction counts within the 1-hour window reinforces the overextended reading. Mean-reversion risk toward the $0.02084 immediate support is elevated in the near term.

Volume Analysis

Buy

54.7%

Sell

45.3%

Volume Trend

Increasing

Volume has surged dramatically in the most recent hours, with the 1-hour transaction count (693 buys, 594 sells) representing approximately 60% of the full 24-hour total. This is a sharp acceleration that coincides with the price breakout. While rising volume on a breakout is technically constructive, the concentration of activity in a single hour raises questions about organic demand versus coordinated activity.

Recent Price Action

Extended base consolidation between $0.01851 and $0.02041 over approximately 10 sessions, followed by a sharp breakout candle closing at $0.02986 — a gain of roughly 46% on the final session of the recorded series.

A breakout from a multi-session consolidation base on elevated volume is a classically bullish continuation pattern. However, the magnitude of the single-session move (46%) and the proximity to the 69-day range high ($0.03252) suggest the move may be exhausting near-term buying power, increasing the probability of a consolidation or pullback before any further advance.

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$0.02084

Major support

$0.01775

Immediate resistance

$0.03252

Major resistance

$0.03252

The immediate support at $0.02084 corresponds to the prior consolidation swing low and represents the first meaningful demand zone if the current breakout reverses. Major support at $0.01775 is the 69-day range low and the last line of defence for the broader uptrend. Both the immediate and major resistance converge at $0.03252 — the 69-day range high — making this a critical level: a confirmed close above it would signal price discovery, while a rejection here would confirm a double-top or range-bound structure.

AI overall risk

Very high

Risk Score

88/100

Risk Breakdown

  • VolatilityHigh

    Daily return volatility of 6.0% (standard deviation) is elevated for any asset class. The 53.6% 7-day gain and 46% single-session close confirm the token is in a high-volatility regime. Moves of this magnitude can reverse equally sharply, particularly given the thin liquidity and concentrated holder base.

  • LiquidityHigh

    Total liquidity of $432,603 against a $16M market cap yields a 2.7% liquidity ratio. With 56.5% dumpable supply concentrated in a single wallet, a large sell event could cause catastrophic price impact. Slippage on any trade above a few thousand dollars will be material.

  • ConcentrationNot assessed

    Ownership concentration cannot be assessed without a measured supply distribution.

  • Smart ContractNot assessed

    Contract or authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations.

  • RegulatoryHigh

    A token that may be impersonating a legitimate, established project (Metaplex/MPLX on Solana) carries regulatory risk related to fraud, misrepresentation, and potential securities violations. Investors holding an unofficial or copycat token have no recourse against the legitimate project.

Key Risks

  • Chain/identity mismatch: The real Metaplex MPLX token is native to Solana; this contract is on BNB Chain. This is either an unofficial bridge, a community fork, or an impersonation — all of which carry significant capital loss risk for investors expecting exposure to the legitimate Metaplex protocol.
  • Single-wallet dump risk: The 54.1% individual whale (0x93deb6…) holds its position via a non-market transfer/airdrop, meaning it has no cost basis from market purchases and faces no psychological barrier to selling at any price. A single decision by this wallet could eliminate the majority of market liquidity.
  • Holder attrition divergence: The 82% decline in holders over 30 days while price rises is a classic pump-and-dump divergence pattern — insiders or coordinated actors accumulate while retail exits, then price is driven up before the concentrated holders distribute.

Mitigating Factors

  • The token has survived 13.1 months without an apparent complete collapse, providing a minimal track record of contract continuity
  • The second-largest position (38.11%) is classified as a protocol/contract wallet, suggesting some supply is locked in non-dumpable infrastructure

Investor Suitability

This token is suitable only for highly experienced, risk-tolerant speculators who fully understand the chain/identity mismatch risk, the extreme supply concentration, and the possibility of total capital loss. It is not suitable for retail investors, long-term holders, or anyone seeking exposure to the legitimate Metaplex protocol.

MPLX on BNB Chain presents a genuine short-term momentum trade underpinned by a confirmed multi-week uptrend, but the structural risks — chain/identity mismatch, 54.1% insider supply overhang, and 82% holder attrition — make any medium-term investment thesis highly speculative. The bull and bear cases are asymmetric: the downside is near-total loss, while the upside is capped by the $0.03252 range high unless a breakout occurs.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

MPLX breaks above the $0.03252 major resistance on sustained volume, triggering momentum-driven price discovery. The Solana ecosystem narrative attracts new buyers who do not scrutinise the chain mismatch, and the 50% revenue buyback story drives speculative demand. The dominant whale continues to hold, removing the immediate dump overhang.

  • Confirmed breakout above $0.03252 with follow-through volume
  • Continued Solana ecosystem growth narrative driving speculative inflows into MPLX-branded tokens across chains

Base Case

The current momentum rally stalls at or below the $0.03252 resistance, followed by a consolidation or moderate pullback toward the $0.02084 immediate support. The holder base stabilises at a low level, and the token trades in a narrow range with low volume as the pump-driven activity dissipates.

  • The dominant 54.1% whale does not sell in the near term, preventing an immediate collapse
  • No new catalyst emerges to either validate the token's legitimacy or expose it as an impersonation, leaving it in an ambiguous state

Bear Case

High probability

The 54.1% whale begins distributing into the current price rally, overwhelming the shallow $432K liquidity pool and triggering a rapid price collapse. The holder attrition trend continues, and the chain/identity mismatch is flagged by a major exchange or security researcher, causing a confidence collapse. Price retraces to the $0.01775 major support or below.

  • Single-wallet distribution of 54.1% supply into thin liquidity
  • Public identification of the BNB Chain token as an impersonation or unofficial fork of the legitimate Solana-native Metaplex protocol

Analysis Details

Generated

Jul 3, 2026, 04:15 AM UTC

Saved observation

2026-07-03 04:15 UTC

Model Confidence

Low

Data Snapshot

Price

$0.029857721973035652

Market Cap

$15.98M

24h Volume

$662.9K

Holders

477

Liquidity

$432,602.51

Data Sources

On-chain transaction data (BNB Chain, contract 0x75a5863a19af60ec0098d62ed8c34cc594fb470f)Holder distribution analytics (Moralis holder tier classification)Daily OHLC price history (69-day series)Whale wallet forensics (DEX swap lookup for 0x93deb6…)Notable recent trade data (largest on-chain swaps)Smart contract security scoring

Limitations

  • Smart-money (top profitable trader cohort) data is unavailable for this token, limiting assessment of informed capital flows
  • The chain/identity mismatch between this BNB Chain token and the legitimate Solana-native Metaplex protocol cannot be definitively resolved from on-chain data alone — investors must independently verify legitimacy
  • 90-day price history is unavailable (only 69 days of OHLC data), limiting longer-term trend analysis
  • The exact wallet identity and intent of the 54.1% holder cannot be confirmed from on-chain data alone

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Questions about MPLX?