USDA

USDA Price Today & AI Analysis

USDABNB ChainAnalysis as of Aug 3, 2026

Price

$0.9536

+0.01% 24h

Contract

Live
0x17eafd08994305d8ace37efb82f1523177ec70ee

Chain

BNB Chain

Holders

402.2K

Market cap

$82.93M

Liquidity

$5.37M

At a $500M market cap, $USDA would be $5.75 (6.03x from today’s price)

Market cap calculator

Is USDA a scam?

Unhosted check · Oct 29

Caution

Unhosted found some red flags. None proves a scam on its own.

  • The top 10 wallets hold a large share of the supply.
  • The trading looks automated.

Unhosted’s automated check, re-run in the background: a warning signal, not a guarantee either way. Taxes come from a test trade through one pool and can change if the owner changes them.

Ask Unhosted AI about USDA

3 free answers a day

What's Twitter saying?Whale activityWhat are the risks?Should I buy?

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USDA: holders, selling & liquidity

2026-08-03 10:30 UTC

Holder addresses

401,941

Top 10 supply share

Not available

Reported liquidity

$26,333,932.70
How concentrated is USDA ownership?
Top-10 ownership concentration is not available in this report. The saved holder count is 401,941 addresses (2026-08-03 10:30 UTC). A holder count alone does not establish how supply is distributed.
Are large holders selling USDA?
This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. A complete buy/sell volume observation is not available in the saved inputs. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.
Is USDA liquidity falling?
As of 2026-08-03 10:30 UTC, reported liquidity was $26,333,932.70. At least two timestamped liquidity observations are needed to establish a change; this report does not have them.
Sources, observations & limitations

Source: inputs saved with the report generated 2026-08-03 10:30 UTC. Original provider retrieval times and historical samples were not recorded. Legacy zero placeholders are treated as unavailable. Holder addresses are not unique people. The provider’s top-10 share is not adjusted here for pools, exchanges, burn addresses or related wallets. Sniper classifications and wallet-level holder history are unavailable. Inspect token on the block explorer.

Recent swap evidence

Swap evidence is unavailable for this report.

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Movement since report

report from Aug 3, 2026, 10:30 AM UTC

Market Cap

$70.56M

24h Volume

$477.14K

Liquidity

$26.33M

FDV

—

Holders

401.9K

24h

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AI Executive Summary

Risk

Very high

Sentiment

Bearish

USDA is an 11.9-month-old BNB Chain token marketed as a fully compliant, FDIC-protected, 1:1 USD-pegged stablecoin issued by the AP Web3 ecosystem. However, it is currently trading at $0.8113 — an 18.9% depeg from its stated peg — having declined 17.4% over the past 30 days in a sustained, unbroken downtrend. With 90.7% sell pressure in the past 24 hours, zero buy transactions in the most recent hour, and 66.6% of supply concentrated in individual whale wallets that received their positions via transfer rather than market purchases, the token is exhibiting severe signs of a failing peg and active distribution. The $26.3M liquidity pool provides some structural depth, but it cannot offset the fundamental credibility crisis of a stablecoin that has lost nearly one-fifth of its pegged value.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Aug 3, 2026, 10:30 AM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Key points

  • Claims FDIC protection for digital asset holdings — an extraordinary and unverified claim that, if false, constitutes a major red flag for regulatory and fraud risk
  • Marketed as a stablecoin yet currently trading at a sustained 18.9% discount to its $1.00 peg, making it functionally a distressed asset rather than a stable medium of exchange
  • Top three individual whale wallets collectively hold 49.46% of supply and acquired their positions via transfer/airdrop with no DEX swap history, indicating insider allocation rather than market-driven accumulation

USDA AI Price Analysis

Medium Confidence

Short-Term · 24h-7d

Bearish

USDA is trading at $0.8113, sitting at the absolute bottom of its 89-day range ($0.8113–$1.00) with a 7-day decline of 15.3% and a 30-day decline of 17.4%. The recent daily close sequence shows an unbroken cascade from $0.9649 to $0.8113 over 14 sessions with no sign of stabilization. The 1-hour window shows zero buy transactions against 44 sells, confirming active distribution with no buying interest.

Medium-Term · 30d-90d

Bearish

For a token marketed as a 1:1 USD-pegged stablecoin, a sustained 18.9% depeg over 30 days is a fundamental failure, not a temporary dip. Without evidence of reserve backing, active peg-restoration mechanisms, or a credible redemption pathway, the medium-term trajectory points toward continued devaluation. Recovery to the $1.00 peg would require a 23% rally from current levels, which demands extraordinary catalyst support that is not visible in the current data.

Bullish Factors

  • Deep liquidity pool of $26.3M on PancakeSwap provides a structural floor and reduces the risk of a sudden liquidity-exit collapse
  • 401,941 total holders with 339,698 acquiring via transfer suggests broad distribution and potential organic demand base if peg confidence is restored

Bearish Factors

  • USDA is trading at $0.8113 — an 18.9% depeg from its stated 1:1 USD peg — representing a fundamental failure of its core value proposition as a stablecoin
  • Sell pressure is 90.7% of 24h volume ($432,920 sells vs. $44,222 buys), with the 1-hour window showing 0 buys and 44 sells, indicating active capitulation with no demand
  • 66.6% of supply is held by individual whale wallets that can sell at any time, and the top three whales (31.06%, 11.50%, 6.90%) all acquired their positions via transfer/airdrop rather than market purchases — zero cost basis creates asymmetric dump risk
  • The top whale wallet (31.06% of supply, address 0x67ccab…) was first active on 2025-11-29, nearly four months after token launch, suggesting a large insider allocation distributed post-launch rather than an organic market participant

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

USDA call history

Full track record →

Aug 3bearish
24h+0.6%
7d+22.3%
30d+17.3%

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

Chain
BNB Chain
Contract
0x17ea...70ee
Total Supply
—
Decimals
—

Key Risks

  • Peg failure risk: USDA is trading at $0.8113, an 18.9% discount to its stated $1.00 peg, with no visible on-chain mechanism for peg restoration and no arbitrage buying activity despite the discount — suggesting the market does not believe the peg will recover
  • Insider dump risk: Three whale wallets collectively holding 49.46% of supply received their positions via transfer/airdrop (zero cost basis), with two wallets first active months post-launch; these wallets have not yet sold through DEX routes, meaning the largest potential selling pressure has not yet materialized
  • Misleading marketing risk: The FDIC protection claim is extraordinary and unverified; if regulators determine this constitutes fraudulent or misleading marketing, the project could face enforcement action that would likely accelerate the depeg and potentially result in total loss for holders

Trading Insight

bearish

Market sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish, with 90.7% of 24-hour volume being sell-side ($432,920 vs. $44,222 in buys) and a 2175-to-188 sell-to-buy transaction ratio. The deterioration is accelerating: the 4-hour window shows 376 sell transactions against only 10 buys, and the most recent 1-hour window recorded zero buy transactions against 44 sells — a complete collapse of demand.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d)

Bearish

Medium-Term (30d)

Bearish

The 14-session daily close sequence from $0.9649 to $0.8113 is a textbook uninterrupted downtrend with no consolidation or bounce. The 7-day decline of 15.3% and 30-day decline of 17.4% are directionally consistent, confirming the medium-term trend is equally bearish. The price is sitting at the absolute bottom of its 89-day range (0% of the $0.8113–$1.00 range), with no technical floor below current levels visible in the OHLC data.

Momentum

Status

Oversold

With price at the 89-day range floor and a 15.3% weekly decline, momentum indicators would register deeply oversold conditions. However, for a depegged stablecoin, oversold readings carry less mean-reversion significance than for a speculative asset — the absence of any buy-side response despite extreme oversold conditions suggests the market does not expect peg restoration.

Volume Analysis

Buy

9.3%

Sell

90.7%

Volume Trend

Increasing

Sell volume is dominant and accelerating on a relative basis: the 4-hour window shows 376 sell transactions vs. 10 buys, and the 1-hour window shows 44 sells vs. 0 buys. This increasing sell-side participation with diminishing buy-side response is a bearish volume signature consistent with capitulation or structured distribution.

Recent Price Action

14 consecutive declining daily closes from $0.9649 to $0.8113, with the steepest drops in the most recent sessions: $0.9161 → $0.8819 → $0.8409 → $0.8113, representing an accelerating decline of 11.3% over the final four sessions.

Accelerating decline into a range floor with zero buy-side response is a continuation pattern, not a reversal setup. The acceleration of daily losses in the final four sessions suggests selling pressure is intensifying rather than exhausting.

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$0.8113

Major support

$0.8113

Immediate resistance

$0.8451

Major resistance

$1.00

Both immediate and major support converge at $0.8113 — the current price and 89-day range low — meaning there is no OHLC-derived support below current levels; a break lower would be into uncharted territory for this token's history. Immediate resistance at $0.8451 represents the nearest prior swing level, while the $1.00 major resistance is the token's stated peg and the top of its historical range — a level that would require a 23.3% rally to reclaim.

AI overall risk

Very high

Risk Score

88/100

Risk Breakdown

  • VolatilityHigh

    A 17.4% decline over 30 days and 15.3% over 7 days is extreme volatility for any asset, but catastrophic for a token marketed as a stablecoin. Daily volatility of 0.9% (standard deviation of daily returns) understates the directional risk given the sustained one-way trend.

  • LiquidityLow

    The $26.3M liquidity pool represents 37.3% of market cap, providing genuine depth. Slippage risk for normal trade sizes is low, though this liquidity could facilitate large insider exits without significant price impact.

  • ConcentrationNot assessed

    Ownership concentration cannot be assessed without a measured supply distribution.

  • Smart ContractNot assessed

    Contract or authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations.

  • RegulatoryHigh

    The project's claim of FDIC protection for digital token holdings is legally questionable — FDIC insurance covers deposits at member banks, not digital asset tokens. If this claim is used in marketing to retail investors and is inaccurate, it could attract regulatory enforcement action in multiple jurisdictions, potentially threatening the token's continued operation.

Key Risks

  • Peg failure risk: USDA is trading at $0.8113, an 18.9% discount to its stated $1.00 peg, with no visible on-chain mechanism for peg restoration and no arbitrage buying activity despite the discount — suggesting the market does not believe the peg will recover
  • Insider dump risk: Three whale wallets collectively holding 49.46% of supply received their positions via transfer/airdrop (zero cost basis), with two wallets first active months post-launch; these wallets have not yet sold through DEX routes, meaning the largest potential selling pressure has not yet materialized
  • Misleading marketing risk: The FDIC protection claim is extraordinary and unverified; if regulators determine this constitutes fraudulent or misleading marketing, the project could face enforcement action that would likely accelerate the depeg and potentially result in total loss for holders

Mitigating Factors

  • Deep liquidity of $26.3M reduces the risk of a sudden liquidity crisis or flash crash, providing some structural stability even in a distressed scenario
  • Verified smart contract with an 80/100 security score reduces the risk of a technical exploit or rug-pull via contract manipulation

Investor Suitability

Given the broken peg, extreme sell pressure, unverified extraordinary claims, and high insider concentration, USDA in its current state is not suitable for investors seeking stable value storage. It may only be appropriate for highly sophisticated traders with specific knowledge of the AP Web3 ecosystem's reserve and redemption mechanisms, who can independently verify the backing claims and have a high tolerance for total loss. This is not financial advice.

USDA presents as a stablecoin but is currently functioning as a distressed asset trading at an 18.9% discount to its stated peg. The investment thesis hinges entirely on whether the 1:1 USD backing is real and whether a credible peg-restoration mechanism exists — neither of which is verifiable from the available on-chain data. The risk/reward is asymmetric only if the peg is genuine and will be restored; if the backing is insufficient or the FDIC claim is misleading, downside risk extends to near-zero.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

The AP Web3 ecosystem publishes a credible, third-party-audited proof-of-reserves confirming full 1:1 USD backing, activates a redemption mechanism at $1.00, and the FDIC protection claim is clarified or substantiated. This would trigger arbitrage buying that closes the 18.9% discount and restores the peg, delivering a ~23% return from current levels.

  • Publication of a verifiable, audited proof-of-reserves demonstrating full USD backing for all 86.97M USDA tokens in circulation
  • Activation of a credible on-chain or off-chain redemption mechanism at $1.00 that arbitrageurs can exploit to close the peg discount

Base Case

USDA continues to trade in a range below its $1.00 peg, with slow ongoing selling pressure from mid-tier holders and no meaningful buy-side catalyst. The token stabilizes at a persistent discount (possibly $0.70–$0.85) as a niche ecosystem token within the AP Web3 platform, losing its stablecoin utility but retaining some residual value for ecosystem participants.

  • The largest insider whale wallets do not immediately liquidate their positions, preventing a catastrophic collapse
  • No regulatory enforcement action materializes in the near term, allowing the token to continue trading on DEXs

Bear Case

High probability

The reserve backing is insufficient or non-existent, the FDIC claim attracts regulatory scrutiny, and the three largest insider whale wallets (49.46% of supply, zero cost basis) begin exiting through DEX routes. With 90.7% sell pressure already and zero buy-side activity in the most recent hour, a further decline toward $0.50 or lower is plausible if insider selling begins.

  • Insider whale wallets with zero cost basis begin DEX liquidations, overwhelming the $26.3M liquidity pool with supply
  • Regulatory action or public exposure of the FDIC claim as misleading triggers a confidence collapse and accelerated holder exit

Analysis Details

Generated

Aug 3, 2026, 10:30 AM UTC

Saved observation

2026-08-03 10:30 UTC

Model Confidence

Medium

Data Snapshot

Price

$0.811323369867006483

Market Cap

$70.56M

24h Volume

$477.1K

Holders

401,941

Liquidity

$26,333,932.70

Data Sources

On-chain transaction data (BNB Chain, 24h/4h/1h windows)Daily OHLC price history (89-day period)Holder distribution analytics (Moralis tier classification)Whale wallet forensics (DEX swap history, first-active dates)Liquidity pool data (PancakeSwap)Smart contract security assessmentNotable recent trades (on-chain swap records)

Limitations

  • Reserve backing and redemption mechanism details are not verifiable from on-chain data alone — the bull case depends entirely on off-chain information (audits, legal filings) that is not available in this dataset
  • Smart-money profitable-trader cohort data is unavailable for this token, limiting the ability to assess informed-money positioning
  • The FDIC protection claim cannot be evaluated from blockchain data; legal and regulatory assessment would require review of the issuer's banking relationships and regulatory filings

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. USDA is currently trading significantly below its stated $1.00 peg and exhibits multiple high-risk characteristics. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Questions about USDA?