SQD

Subsquid Price Today & AI Analysis

SQDBaseAnalysis as of Aug 6, 2026

Price

$0.0289

-0.18% 24h

Contract

Live
0xd4554bea546efa83c1e6b389ecac40ea999b3e78

Chain

Base

Holders

1.5K

Market cap

$281.88K

Liquidity

$113.24K

More tokens on Base

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Subsquid: holders, selling & liquidity

2026-08-06 15:30 UTC

Holder addresses

1,371

Top 10 supply share

Not available

Reported liquidity

$246,727.10
How concentrated is Subsquid ownership?
Top-10 ownership concentration is not available in this report. The saved holder count is 1,371 addresses (2026-08-06 15:30 UTC). A holder count alone does not establish how supply is distributed.
Are large holders selling Subsquid?
This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. A complete buy/sell volume observation is not available in the saved inputs. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.
Is Subsquid liquidity falling?
As of 2026-08-06 15:30 UTC, reported liquidity was $246,727.10. At least two timestamped liquidity observations are needed to establish a change; this report does not have them.
Sources, observations & limitations

Source: inputs saved with the report generated 2026-08-06 15:30 UTC. Original provider retrieval times and historical samples were not recorded. Legacy zero placeholders are treated as unavailable. Holder addresses are not unique people. The provider’s top-10 share is not adjusted here for pools, exchanges, burn addresses or related wallets. Sniper classifications and wallet-level holder history are unavailable. Inspect token on the block explorer.

Recent swap evidence

Swap evidence is unavailable for this report.

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Movement since report

report from Aug 6, 2026, 03:30 PM UTC

Market Cap

$43.61M

24h Volume

$18.63K

Liquidity

$246.73K

FDV

—

Holders

1,371

24h

Loading trading activity…

AI Executive Summary

Risk

High

Sentiment

Bullish

Subsquid (SQD) is a 20.4-month-old utility token on Base (chain 0x2105) operating in the AI and analytics sector, serving as the native incentive and revenue-capture token for an open database network. At $0.03425 with a market cap of approximately $43.6M, the token is experiencing a short-term recovery (+10.9% over 7 days) after a prolonged 30-day decline of -7.6%. Liquidity is thin at $246,727 on Aerodrome, and the holder base of 1,371 wallets is slowly contracting. The token's security score of 72/100 with a verified contract is adequate, but concentration risk from individual whales holding 41.1% of dumpable supply warrants caution.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Aug 6, 2026, 03:30 PM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Key points

  • Dual role as both a network incentive mechanism and a protocol revenue-capture token within an open database infrastructure
  • Deflationary supply mechanism described in the project, with 100% of supply already in circulation (no future unlock pressure from the contract itself)
  • Operates in the AI and analytics niche, a sector with elevated market attention, though on-chain adoption metrics remain modest

Subsquid AI Price Analysis

Low Confidence

Short-Term · 24h-7d

Bullish

SQD has posted a 7-day gain of +10.9%, recovering from a multi-week low of $0.02963 and closing at $0.03425 — the highest daily close in the 14-session window. The recent daily close sequence shows a clear step-up pattern from $0.03075 to $0.03425, and buy pressure at 61.6% of 24h volume supports continued near-term upside. The immediate resistance at $0.03469 is the first meaningful test; a clean break would open the path toward $0.05753.

Medium-Term · 30d-90d

Bearish

Despite the 7-day bounce, the 30-day trend remains -7.6%, and the current price sits at only 17% of the 89-day range ($0.02963–$0.05753), indicating the token has spent most of the period well below its range midpoint. Holder count has declined by 4 over 30 days and 1 over 7 days, signalling slow but persistent distribution rather than accumulation. Without a confirmed break above $0.03469 and a reversal of the 30-day downtrend, the medium-term bias remains bearish.

Bullish Factors

  • 7-day price appreciation of +10.9% with a clear step-up in daily closes from $0.03075 to $0.03425, the highest close in the observed window
  • Buy pressure accounts for 61.6% of 24h volume ($11,473 buys vs $7,154 sells), indicating net buying dominance
  • The 37.97% protocol/contract holding is non-dumpable, meaning the effective dumpable supply is only 41.1% — lower than the raw top-10 concentration of 78% implies

Bearish Factors

  • 30-day trend is -7.6%, meaning the 7-day bounce is a counter-trend move within a broader decline
  • Price sits at only 17% of the 89-day range, far below the $0.05753 range high, reflecting sustained selling pressure over the period
  • Holder count has declined by 4 over 30 days, indicating slow but consistent net holder exit rather than accumulation

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

SQD call history

Full track record →

Aug 6bullish
24h-0.8%
7d+34.5%
30d+4.6%

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

Chain
Base
Contract
0xd455...3e78
Total Supply
—
Decimals
—

Key Risks

  • The 23.66% individual whale (0xe73018) holds a position acquired via apparent allocation (first active 2025-02-19, $0 realized PnL, $0 average buy) — this wallet has no cost basis and could sell at any price without incurring a loss, representing the single largest dumpable risk in the token
  • Liquidity of $246,727 is critically thin; a coordinated exit by even one mid-sized whale would cause catastrophic price impact and could trigger a cascade of stop-losses given the token's position at 17% of its 89-day range
  • The 30-day trend of -7.6% combined with a declining holder count (-4 over 30 days) suggests the token is in a slow distribution phase, and the current 7-day bounce may be a temporary counter-trend move rather than a genuine reversal

Trading Insight

bullish

The 24h trading session shows a net buy bias with 61.6% buy pressure by volume, though the transaction count slightly favours sellers (106 sells vs 93 buys), suggesting a small number of larger buy orders are driving the volume imbalance. Activity is thin — only 18 unique buyers and 20 unique sellers participated in 24 hours — which means individual orders can move the price meaningfully. The overall sentiment is cautiously bullish in the short term but lacks the volume depth to sustain a strong directional move.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d)

Bullish

Medium-Term (30d)

Bearish

The short-term trend is clearly bullish: the 14 most recent daily closes show a consistent recovery from $0.03075 to $0.03425, and the 7-day return is +10.9%. However, the 30-day return of -7.6% confirms that this bounce is occurring within a broader medium-term downtrend. The price at 17% of the 89-day range ($0.02963–$0.05753) underscores how far the token remains from its range highs, and a reversal of the medium-term trend requires sustained closes above $0.03469.

Momentum

Status

Neutral

Daily volatility of 6.0% (standard deviation of daily returns) is moderate for a small-cap token, indicating active but not extreme price swings. The recent acceleration from $0.03075 to $0.03425 over the last several sessions suggests building upward momentum in the short term, but the 30-day context keeps the overall momentum reading neutral — the token is recovering from oversold conditions rather than breaking out from a base.

Volume Analysis

Buy

61.6%

Sell

38.4%

Volume Trend

Stable

24h volume of ~$18,627 represents approximately 0.04% of market cap, which is extremely low turnover. The 4-hour window of 26 transactions and the 1-hour window of 5 transactions show no volume acceleration accompanying the price recovery, which is a concern — genuine trend reversals typically see volume expansion. The buy/sell volume split of 61.6%/38.4% is the one constructive signal, but it is based on a very small absolute dollar amount.

Recent Price Action

The 14-session daily close sequence shows a base-building phase from $0.03075–$0.03095 (sessions 7–9) followed by a two-step recovery: a jump to $0.03254 on session 10, consolidation around $0.03213–$0.03261 for three sessions, then a final push to $0.03425 on the most recent close.

This staircase recovery pattern — base, jump, consolidate, jump — is constructive and suggests measured accumulation rather than a single spike. However, the pattern is only 14 sessions old and has not yet tested the $0.03469 immediate resistance, which is the key level that would confirm a genuine short-term trend change.

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$0.03230

Major support

$0.02963

Immediate resistance

$0.03469

Major resistance

$0.05753

The immediate support at $0.03230 corresponds to the swing low area from sessions 10–13 and represents the first line of defence if the current recovery stalls. Major support at $0.02963 is the 89-day range low — a breach would set a new period low and signal a resumption of the broader downtrend. On the upside, immediate resistance at $0.03469 is just 1.3% above the current price, making it an imminent test; a confirmed close above it would be the first bullish structural signal. Major resistance at $0.05753 is the 89-day range high, roughly 68% above current price, and represents the full recovery target in a bull scenario.

AI overall risk

High

Risk Score

68/100

Risk Breakdown

  • VolatilityHigh

    Daily return volatility of 6.0% (standard deviation) translates to annualized volatility well above 100%, typical of small-cap tokens. The 89-day range of $0.02963–$0.05753 represents a 94% spread, and the current price at 17% of that range illustrates how dramatically the token can move.

  • LiquidityHigh

    With only $246,727 in total liquidity on a single DEX (Aerodrome) and a liquidity-to-market-cap ratio of ~0.57%, even small orders cause significant slippage. A whale attempting to exit even 1% of the dumpable 41.1% supply would face severe price impact.

  • ConcentrationNot assessed

    Ownership concentration cannot be assessed without a measured supply distribution.

  • Smart ContractNot assessed

    Contract or authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations.

  • RegulatoryMedium

    As an AI/analytics utility token with revenue-sharing characteristics, SQD could attract regulatory scrutiny in jurisdictions that classify revenue-sharing tokens as securities. The absence of social links and limited public documentation makes regulatory posture difficult to assess.

Key Risks

  • The 23.66% individual whale (0xe73018) holds a position acquired via apparent allocation (first active 2025-02-19, $0 realized PnL, $0 average buy) — this wallet has no cost basis and could sell at any price without incurring a loss, representing the single largest dumpable risk in the token
  • Liquidity of $246,727 is critically thin; a coordinated exit by even one mid-sized whale would cause catastrophic price impact and could trigger a cascade of stop-losses given the token's position at 17% of its 89-day range
  • The 30-day trend of -7.6% combined with a declining holder count (-4 over 30 days) suggests the token is in a slow distribution phase, and the current 7-day bounce may be a temporary counter-trend move rather than a genuine reversal

Mitigating Factors

  • 100% of supply is already circulating, eliminating future vesting unlock events that could create sudden sell pressure from team or investor allocations
  • The 37.97% protocol/contract holding is classified as non-dumpable, meaning the effective float is more constrained than the raw concentration figures suggest, which can limit downside velocity in a sell-off

Investor Suitability

SQD is suitable only for high-risk-tolerant investors with deep familiarity with small-cap DeFi tokens, who understand the risks of thin liquidity, high whale concentration, and counter-trend bounces. It is not appropriate for capital preservation strategies or investors who cannot afford to lose their entire position.

SQD presents a speculative opportunity in the AI/analytics infrastructure niche, with a short-term technical recovery underway (+10.9% over 7 days) but a medium-term downtrend (-7.6% over 30 days) and significant structural risks from whale concentration and thin liquidity. The investment thesis hinges on whether the protocol can demonstrate genuine network adoption and revenue growth to justify the $43.6M market cap.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

SQD breaks and sustains above the $0.03469 immediate resistance, reversing the 30-day downtrend. Protocol adoption accelerates, driving on-chain demand for SQD as a utility token, and the deflationary mechanism begins reducing circulating supply. The AI/analytics sector narrative attracts new retail and institutional interest, expanding the holder base from 1,371 and pushing price toward the $0.05753 range high.

  • Confirmed technical breakout above $0.03469 with volume expansion
  • Demonstrable protocol revenue growth or major partnership announcement that validates the AI/analytics use case

Base Case

SQD consolidates in the $0.03088–$0.03469 range over the next 30–90 days, with the short-term recovery stalling at immediate resistance and the token trading sideways as the 30-day downtrend and 7-day uptrend reach equilibrium. Holder count stabilizes but does not grow meaningfully, and volume remains thin.

  • No major whale distribution event from the 23.66% allocated holder in the near term
  • No significant protocol catalyst or negative news that would break the token out of its current consolidation range

Bear Case

Medium probability

The 7-day bounce fails at the $0.03469 resistance and the 30-day downtrend reasserts itself. The 23.66% allocated whale (0xe73018) begins distributing its zero-cost-basis position into any liquidity, overwhelming the thin $246,727 order book. Price retests the $0.02963 major support and potentially sets new lows, with the declining holder count accelerating.

  • Whale distribution from the 23.66% zero-cost-basis holder overwhelming thin liquidity
  • Continued holder count decline and absence of new organic demand in a low-volume trading environment

Analysis Details

Generated

Aug 6, 2026, 03:30 PM UTC

Saved observation

2026-08-06 15:30 UTC

Model Confidence

Low

Data Snapshot

Price

$0.034250038496020201

Market Cap

$43.61M

24h Volume

$18.6K

Holders

1,371

Liquidity

$246,727.10

Data Sources

On-chain transaction data (Aerodrome DEX, Base chain)Holder distribution analytics (Moralis holder tier classification)Daily OHLC price history (89-day window)Smart contract security assessment (72/100 score, verified contract)Whale wallet forensics (realized PnL, first-active dates, trade counts)Smart money realized PnL data (top profitable traders)

Limitations

  • Only 89 days of OHLC history are available (90d data marked n/a), limiting the statistical robustness of trend and volatility calculations
  • No social media links or external project documentation were available, preventing assessment of community health, team credibility, or roadmap progress
  • The FDV figure of $324,599 appears inconsistent with the $43.6M market cap and 9.48M circulating supply at current price — this data point may be erroneous and should be independently verified
  • Whale wallet 0xe73018 (23.66% of supply) shows $0 realized PnL and $0 average buy price over a single trade, which is consistent with a direct allocation but cannot be confirmed without additional on-chain forensics

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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