VANA

Vana Price Today & AI Analysis

VANA
Base·AI Analysis
Analysis as of Jul 31, 2026

$0.9110

+3.12%24h
LiveContract:0x7ff7fa94b8b66ef313f7970d4eebd2cb3103a2c0Chain:BaseHolders:1.0KMarket cap:$124.06KLiquidity:$51.25K

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Ask Unhosted AI about VANA

What's Twitter saying?

Sentiment, KOL mentions, top tweets

Whale activity

Who is accumulating or distributing

What are the risks?

Red flags, security, concentration

Should I buy?

Bull case, bear case, entry / exit

Movement since reportreport from Jul 31, 2026, 04:15 AM UTC
Market Cap

$26.78M

24h Volume

$0.00

Liquidity

—

FDV

—

Holders

978

24HLoading trading activity…

Holder Insights

Live

Total holders

—

AI Executive Summary

Vana (VANA) is a 20.2-month-old EVM-compatible Layer 1 blockchain on Base (0x2105) that enables users to tokenize personal data for AI model training via Data Liquidity Pools and a Proof-of-Contribution system. With a market cap of ~$26.8M against a fully diluted valuation of only ~$38K — a stark discrepancy that likely reflects a very small circulating supply of 43,901 tokens — the token's valuation metrics are highly unusual and warrant scrutiny. The price has declined 29.7% over the past 7 days from a 26-day high of $1.68, and the holder base has contracted by 28% over the past month. Supply concentration is extreme, with the top 10 holders controlling 100% of supply and individual whales holding positions that collectively exceed circulating supply on paper.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Jul 31, 2026, 04:15 AM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Risk: very_high
Sentiment: bearish
Data Liquidity Pools (DLPs) that allow individuals to tokenize and monetize personal data for AI training — a novel primitive in the data economy
Proof-of-Contribution validation mechanism that enforces data quality standards before rewarding contributors with VANA tokens
EVM-compatible Layer 1 architecture enabling composability with existing Ethereum tooling while targeting the AI/data ownership vertical

Vana AI Price Analysis

Low Confidence
Short-Term24h-7d
Bearish

VANA has shed 29.7% over the past 7 days, with daily closes declining from $1.24 to $0.87 in a clear staircase pattern. The token is now sitting just below the immediate resistance at $1.03, which was previously support, and the holder trajectory has been declining for 31 days (1,210 → 866 holders). Without a catalyst to reclaim $1.03, the path of least resistance remains downward.

Medium-Term30d-90d
Bearish

With only 26 days of price history available, 30d and 90d trend data are absent, but the available window shows a peak near $1.68 followed by a sustained decline to current levels — a roughly 48% drawdown from the high. The declining holder base (net -344 over 31 days) and extreme supply concentration in non-retail hands suggest continued distribution pressure. A recovery above $1.03 and then $1.68 would be required to shift this outlook.

Bullish Factors
  • +Holder acquisition is predominantly via swap (663 of 978 holders), indicating genuine market-driven demand rather than purely airdrop-inflated counts
  • +The 26-day price range low of $0.1069 vs. a high of $1.68 shows the token has already demonstrated a 15x price discovery range, suggesting speculative upside potential if sentiment reverses
  • +Vana operates in the high-growth AI + data-ownership narrative, with a differentiated Proof-of-Contribution mechanism and Data DAOs that address a real market gap
Bearish Factors
  • -Price has declined 29.7% in 7 days, with daily closes falling from $1.24 to $0.87 in a consistent downtrend — not a single-day noise event
  • -The holder trajectory is structurally declining: 1,210 holders 31 days ago vs. 866 today, a net loss of 344 holders (-28%), indicating sustained exit pressure
  • -Dumpable supply is reported at 128.1% of circulating supply — a figure that exceeds 100% and likely reflects rebasing or cross-chain accounting anomalies, but in any case signals extreme concentration risk from individual whales holding 94.45% and 22.59% of supply

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

Token Info

ChainBase
Contract0x7ff7...a2c0
Total Supply—
Decimals—

Key Risks

•Anomalous tokenomics: the market cap ($26.78M) is approximately 700x the fully diluted valuation ($38,171), which is internally inconsistent and may indicate a data error, token migration, or deliberate obfuscation — investors cannot reliably value the token without resolving this discrepancy
•The largest individual whale (94.45% of supply, 0x34219b) holds its position via transfer with no DEX history and has a wallet first-active date in the future (2025-09-10), making its nature and intentions entirely opaque — an unannounced sale of even a fraction of this position could be catastrophic for price
•Structural holder attrition of -344 wallets (-28%) over 31 days, coinciding with a price decline from $1.68 to $0.87, suggests the token is in a distribution phase with no visible accumulation floor

Trading Insight

bearish

The 7-day price decline of 29.7% combined with a shrinking holder base signals net distribution pressure. The majority of holders entered via swap (663 vs. 314 via transfer), meaning a significant portion of the holder base has a cost basis that may now be underwater given the recent drawdown from $1.24+ levels.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d):
Bearish
Medium-Term (30d):
Bearish

The 14 available daily closes paint a clear picture: after consolidating between $1.14–$1.24 for the first 10 sessions, price broke down sharply through $1.09, $1.02, and settled at $0.87 — a 29.7% decline over 7 days. With only 26 days of history, the medium-term trend is also defined by this same declining structure from the $1.68 peak. There is no evidence of a reversal pattern in the available data.

Momentum

Status:
Oversold

A 29.7% decline in 7 days on a token with 5.2% daily volatility represents approximately 5.7 standard deviations of downward movement — statistically extreme and consistent with oversold conditions. While this could attract mean-reversion buyers, oversold readings in low-liquidity, high-concentration tokens can persist for extended periods without a fundamental catalyst.

Volume Analysis

Buy 50%Sell 50%

Volume Trend: Decreasing

Explicit volume figures were not provided in the data. However, the price pattern — a sharp breakdown after a period of consolidation — is typically associated with a volume spike on the breakdown candle followed by declining volume as price drifts lower. The 5.2% daily return standard deviation confirms this is a high-volatility asset where volume-driven moves can be sudden and severe.

Recent Price Action

Consolidation-then-breakdown: price held a tight range of $1.14–$1.24 for approximately 10 sessions before breaking down through $1.09 and $1.02 in rapid succession, closing at $0.87. The former support zone of $1.00–$1.03 has now flipped to resistance.

This consolidation-breakdown pattern typically signals exhaustion of buying interest at the consolidation level, with sellers gaining control. The failure to hold $1.00 psychological support is technically significant and increases the probability of a test of lower levels.

Key Price Levels

Support
Immediate$0.1069
Major$0.1069
Resistance
Immediate$1.03
Major$1.68

The immediate and major support levels both converge at $0.1069 — the 26-day OHLC low — indicating there is no intermediate OHLC-derived support between current price ($0.87) and the range floor. This is a significant bearish structural observation: if $0.87 fails to hold, there is no computed swing-low support until $0.1069, an 88% drawdown from current levels. Immediate resistance at $1.03 represents the recent breakdown level that must be reclaimed for any bullish reversal thesis. Major resistance at $1.68 is the 26-day high and would represent a full recovery.

Holder Metrics

Total Holders978
24h Change+68
Growth Rate+7%

The 24h holder change of +68 (7%) appears contradictory against the 31-day trajectory of -344 holders, but single-day holder counts are noisy and should not override the structural trend. The 31-day timeseries (1,210 → 866) is the authoritative signal: this token has been losing holders consistently for a month, which correlates directly with the price decline from the $1.68 peak and suggests ongoing distribution rather than accumulation.

Holder Distribution

Top 10 Holders100%
Top 100 Holders100%
Retail Holders0.0%
Concentration Risk:
Critical

The top 10 holders control 100% of supply, with zero retail ownership. However, applying the classification framework: positions 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 10 are protocol/contract wallets and are not dumpable. The dumpable supply — held by individual whales (positions 2, 3, 4, 9) — is reported at 128.1% of circulating supply, a figure that exceeds 100% and is anomalous, likely reflecting cross-chain bridge accounting or a rebasing mechanism. Regardless of the accounting explanation, the concentration of sellable supply in just four individual whale wallets, with the largest holding 94.45%, represents critical concentration risk.

Whale Activity

Sentiment:
Holding

The largest individual whale (0x34219b, 94.45%) has no DEX swap history on this token — its position was received via transfer, not purchased. Its wallet first-active date of 2025-09-10 is anomalous (post-dates the analysis period) and may indicate a bridge contract or indexer artifact. The second whale (0xf5c4f3, 22.59%) also holds via transfer with no swap activity, active since November 2024 near token launch. Only the third whale (0x0bf748, 9.15%) has traded this token, with 44 trades at an average buy of $1.66 — currently sitting at a loss.

  • •0x34219b holds 94.45% of supply via transfer/airdrop with no DEX activity — a non-market allocation that represents the single largest concentration risk in the token
  • •0x0bf748 accumulated 9.15% of supply across 44 trades at an average price of $1.66, now underwater at $0.87 — a potential source of capitulation selling if losses deepen

The two largest individual whales are passive holders who received their supply without market participation, making their behavior opaque — they could sell at any time without prior on-chain signals. The only active trader among the top whales (0x0bf748) is underwater, creating potential sell pressure if the price continues to decline.

Smart Money Indicators

Confidence:
Low
Profit-Taking Risk:
High

The top profitable trader (0x005896) shows a realized PnL of +$3.18 billion (+3,030,187%) over 8,968 trades — a figure that is almost certainly a data artifact, wash-trading pattern, or indexer error rather than genuine profit, as it would represent an implausible return on a $26.8M market cap token. The remaining smart money wallets show modest realized gains: 0xa12fa2 (+$4,096, +24,524% over 7 trades) is the only other wallet with a meaningful percentage return, suggesting early entry at very low prices.

The $3.18B PnL figure for the top trader is a data anomaly and should not be taken at face value — it likely reflects a loop trade, bridge artifact, or indexer miscalculation. Setting that aside, the presence of a wallet with +24,524% returns over just 7 trades confirms that early buyers entered at prices far below current levels and have substantial unrealized or realized gains, representing ongoing profit-taking risk. The majority of other smart money wallets show single-digit percentage returns, suggesting most active traders are not significantly profitable at current prices.

Liquidity Analysis

Total LiquidityNot provided in data
Depth:
Shallow
Slippage Risk:
High

Explicit liquidity figures were not provided. However, with only 978 total holders, 100% supply concentration in the top 10 wallets, a market cap of $26.8M against a total supply of just 43,901 tokens, and a Uniswap pool (position 6) holding a protocol-contract share of supply, liquidity depth is inferred to be shallow. The 5.2% daily return volatility and the 29.7% 7-day decline are consistent with a low-liquidity environment where large orders move price significantly.

Overall Risk:
Very High
82/100

Risk Breakdown

Volatility
High

Daily return standard deviation of 5.2% implies annualized volatility exceeding 100%. The 29.7% 7-day decline and a 26-day range spanning $0.1069 to $1.68 (a 15.7x ratio) confirm this is an extremely volatile asset where large drawdowns can occur rapidly.

Liquidity
High

With only 978 holders, a total supply of 43,901 tokens, and no explicit liquidity depth data, the token is highly susceptible to slippage. The Uniswap pool (top holder position 6) holds a protocol share, but the overall market depth is inferred to be shallow given the price impact of recent selling.

Concentration
High

While protocol/contract wallets (positions 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10) are not dumpable whale risk, the individual whale wallets (positions 2, 3, 4, 9) collectively hold a dumpable supply reported at 128.1% of circulating supply. The top individual whale alone (94.45%) could theoretically overwhelm all buy-side liquidity if it were to sell, though its transfer-only acquisition history makes its intentions opaque.

Smart Contract
Medium

The contract is verified (positive), but the 56/100 security score indicates automated tools have flagged potential issues. Without a published audit from a reputable firm, smart contract risk remains elevated above baseline.

Regulatory
Medium

Vana's model of tokenizing personal data and enabling AI training monetization sits at the intersection of data privacy regulation (GDPR, CCPA) and securities law. As regulators increase scrutiny of AI-adjacent crypto projects, Vana's data monetization model may face compliance challenges in key jurisdictions.

Key Risks

  • •Anomalous tokenomics: the market cap ($26.78M) is approximately 700x the fully diluted valuation ($38,171), which is internally inconsistent and may indicate a data error, token migration, or deliberate obfuscation — investors cannot reliably value the token without resolving this discrepancy
  • •The largest individual whale (94.45% of supply, 0x34219b) holds its position via transfer with no DEX history and has a wallet first-active date in the future (2025-09-10), making its nature and intentions entirely opaque — an unannounced sale of even a fraction of this position could be catastrophic for price
  • •Structural holder attrition of -344 wallets (-28%) over 31 days, coinciding with a price decline from $1.68 to $0.87, suggests the token is in a distribution phase with no visible accumulation floor

Mitigating Factors

  • •The project has a verified contract, active social presence, and a differentiated use case in the AI/data economy that addresses genuine market demand
  • •The token has survived 20.2 months on-chain without a reported exploit, and the majority of holders (663/978) entered via swap, indicating some level of genuine market-driven demand

Investor Suitability

This token is suitable only for high-risk-tolerant investors with deep familiarity with micro-cap, high-concentration crypto assets who can afford to lose their entire investment. The anomalous tokenomics, extreme supply concentration, declining holder base, and unresolved data anomalies make this inappropriate for conservative or moderate-risk investors.

Vana occupies a genuinely differentiated position at the intersection of AI and data ownership, but the current on-chain state — extreme concentration, declining holders, a 29.7% 7-day price decline, and multiple data anomalies — makes the near-term risk/reward unfavorable. The investment thesis hinges on whether the project's fundamental narrative can attract new capital and resolve the structural distribution pressure.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case
Low

The AI/data ownership narrative gains mainstream traction, driving new institutional and retail interest in Vana's Data Liquidity Pool model. New holder inflows reverse the 31-day attrition trend, price reclaims the $1.03 resistance, and the project announces partnerships or DLP milestones that validate the Proof-of-Contribution mechanism. Price recovers toward the $1.68 major resistance.

  • +Broader AI sector rotation into data-infrastructure tokens driving speculative inflows
  • +Vana ecosystem growth metrics (DLP TVL, active data contributors) demonstrating real utility adoption
Base Case

Price consolidates in the $0.50–$1.03 range as the token finds a temporary equilibrium between ongoing distribution from large holders and modest new inflows from AI narrative interest. Holder counts stabilize but do not meaningfully grow. The tokenomics anomaly (market cap vs. FDV discrepancy) remains unresolved, capping institutional interest.

  • •The largest whale wallets do not aggressively sell their transfer-acquired positions in the near term
  • •The AI/data economy narrative maintains sufficient ambient interest to sustain modest swap-based holder acquisition
Bear Case
Medium

The largest individual whale (94.45% of supply) begins distributing its transfer-acquired position, overwhelming the shallow Uniswap liquidity. The declining holder base accelerates, and the absence of OHLC-derived support between $0.87 and $0.1069 means price could collapse toward the 26-day low with minimal resistance.

  • -Opaque whale wallet (94.45% of supply, acquired via transfer) initiating sales into thin liquidity
  • -Continued holder attrition beyond the current -28% 31-day trend, signalling loss of community confidence

Analysis Details

GeneratedJul 31, 2026, 04:15 AM UTC
Data FreshnessReal-time on-chain data as of analysis timestamp
Model Confidence
Low

Data Snapshot

Price$Unknown
Market Cap$26.78M
24h Volume$0
Holders978
LiquidityN/A

Data Sources

On-chain holder distribution and trajectory analytics (31-day daily timeseries)
Daily OHLC price history (26-day window, 14 closing prices)
Smart money realized PnL data (top profitable traders)
Whale wallet forensics (DEX swap history, first-active dates, acquisition method)
Token fundamentals and security assessment (contract verification, security score)
Supply concentration metrics (top 10/100 holder percentages, dumpable supply classification)

Limitations

  • •Only 26 days of OHLC data are available, making 30d/90d trend comparisons impossible and limiting the reliability of medium-term technical analysis
  • •The market cap vs. FDV discrepancy ($26.78M vs. $38,171) and the dumpable supply figure exceeding 100% of circulating supply are unresolved anomalies that undermine confidence in the tokenomics analysis
  • •The top whale wallet's first-active date (2025-09-10) is anomalous relative to the token's November 2024 creation, and the $3.18B smart money PnL figure is almost certainly a data artifact — both limit the reliability of whale and smart money analysis
  • •No explicit liquidity depth, 24h transaction volume, or buy/sell count data were provided, requiring inference from price action and holder metrics

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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