OGN

OriginToken Price Today & AI Analysis

OGNBaseAnalysis as of Aug 6, 2026

Price

$0.0189

-0.30% 24h

Contract

Live
0x7002458b1df59eccb57387bc79ffc7c29e22e6f7

Chain

Base

Holders

1.5K

Market cap

$193.54K

Liquidity

$169.20K

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OriginToken: holders, selling & liquidity

2026-08-06 10:18 UTC

Holder addresses

1,463

Top 10 supply share

Not available

Reported liquidity

$273,568.07
How concentrated is OriginToken ownership?
Top-10 ownership concentration is not available in this report. The saved holder count is 1,463 addresses (2026-08-06 10:18 UTC). A holder count alone does not establish how supply is distributed.
Are large holders selling OriginToken?
This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. A complete buy/sell volume observation is not available in the saved inputs. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.
Is OriginToken liquidity falling?
As of 2026-08-06 10:18 UTC, reported liquidity was $273,568.07. At least two timestamped liquidity observations are needed to establish a change; this report does not have them.
Sources, observations & limitations

Source: inputs saved with the report generated 2026-08-06 10:18 UTC. Original provider retrieval times and historical samples were not recorded. Legacy zero placeholders are treated as unavailable. Holder addresses are not unique people. The provider’s top-10 share is not adjusted here for pools, exchanges, burn addresses or related wallets. Sniper classifications and wallet-level holder history are unavailable. Inspect token on the block explorer.

Recent swap evidence

Swap evidence is unavailable for this report.

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Movement since report

report from Aug 6, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC

Market Cap

$11.31M

24h Volume

$26.98K

Liquidity

$273.57K

FDV

—

Holders

1,463

24h

Loading trading activity…

AI Executive Summary

Risk

High

Sentiment

Bullish

OGN is the governance and utility token of Origin Protocol, a DeFi platform offering liquid staking (OETH) and stablecoin yield (OUSD) products, deployed on Base (chain 0x2105) and trading on Aerodrome. The token is 25.8 months old with a market cap of approximately $11.3M, though a striking FDV of only $167,364 against that market cap signals a likely token migration or supply discrepancy that investors must investigate before trading. Concentration risk is structurally low — 81.35% of on-chain supply sits in a protocol contract and ~12% in Coinbase wallets, leaving only 1.5% as genuinely dumpable supply — but trading activity is dominated by an extremely small number of wallets, making price discovery unreliable. The 7-day recovery of +10.3% is encouraging, but the token remains at the lower end of its 67-day range with thin liquidity and a below-average security score of 40/100.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Aug 6, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Key points

  • Negligible dumpable supply (1.5%) due to protocol contracts and Coinbase custody dominating the top-10 holder list — a rare structural safety feature
  • Established DeFi ecosystem with OETH liquid staking and OUSD stablecoin yield products providing real utility beyond pure speculation
  • Critical FDV vs. market cap anomaly ($167K FDV vs. $11.3M market cap) likely reflecting a token merger/migration from OGV, requiring due diligence on supply mechanics

OriginToken AI Price Analysis

Low Confidence

Short-Term · 24h-7d

Bullish

OGN has posted a 7-day gain of +10.3%, recovering from a multi-week low of $0.01429 and closing the most recent session at $0.01662. The price sits at only 22% of its 67-day range, meaning significant upside room remains before the major resistance at $0.02473. Buy pressure at 57.8% over 24 hours and a net positive volume imbalance ($15,606 buys vs $11,373 sells) support continued near-term momentum.

Medium-Term · 30d-90d

Bullish

The 30-day change of +0.5% is nearly flat, but the 7-day surge of +10.3% signals a potential trend inflection after a prolonged consolidation between $0.01429 and $0.01662. If the token can clear the immediate resistance cluster and sustain buying interest, the major resistance at $0.02473 becomes the medium-term target, representing roughly a 49% move from current levels. Holder growth of +100 wallets over 30 days (+6.8%) provides a modest but consistent demand signal.

Bullish Factors

  • 7-day price appreciation of +10.3% marks the strongest multi-day momentum in the available 67-day history, with the last 14 daily closes showing a clear recovery from the $0.01479 trough
  • Buy pressure of 57.8% and net buy volume of $4,233 over 24 hours indicate more capital entering than exiting the pool
  • Dumpable supply is only 1.5% of total — the top 10 holders are dominated by protocol contracts (81.35%) and Coinbase exchange wallets (~12%), meaning there is virtually no insider or whale dump risk from the concentration
  • Holder base grew by 100 wallets (+6.8%) over 30 days, a steady organic accumulation signal for a token with only 1,463 total holders
  • Smart money trader 0xd0d088 has realized +$25,885 (+45%) over 5,930 trades, demonstrating sustained profitable engagement with this token

Bearish Factors

  • Current price at 22% of the 67-day range ($0.01429–$0.02473) means the token remains deep in its historical trough, and the 30-day gain of only +0.5% shows the broader trend is still essentially flat
  • Extreme trading concentration — only 3 unique buyers executed 100 buy transactions in 24 hours — means apparent buy pressure may reflect a single actor cycling volume rather than genuine broad demand
  • Liquidity of $273,568 is shallow relative to the $11.3M market cap (~2.4% liquidity-to-mcap ratio), creating high slippage risk for any position of meaningful size
  • Security score of 40/100 is below the threshold typically associated with audited, low-risk contracts, raising smart contract exposure concerns
  • The FDV of $167,364 is dramatically lower than the market cap of $11.3M — this anomaly (FDV < market cap) suggests a data inconsistency or token migration artifact that warrants caution before committing capital

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

OGN call history

Full track record →

Aug 6bullish
24h-4.5%
7d-3.7%
30d+11.4%

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

Chain
Base
Contract
0x7002...e6f7
Total Supply
—
Decimals
—

Key Risks

  • Extreme trading concentration: only 3 unique buyers drove 100 buy transactions in 24 hours, meaning apparent buy pressure is likely artificial or bot-driven and does not reflect genuine market demand
  • FDV ($167,364) vs. market cap ($11.3M) anomaly is a critical data inconsistency — if the full project supply of 1.4B tokens is ever bridged to this contract, the dilution impact would be catastrophic for current holders
  • Shallow liquidity of $273,568 creates high slippage and manipulation risk; a single actor with $50,000–$100,000 could move price by 20–30% in either direction

Trading Insight

bullish

The 24-hour trading window shows a modest bullish lean with 57.8% buy pressure and $4,233 net inflow, but the signal is severely diluted by the fact that only 3 unique buyers drove all 100 buy transactions — a pattern consistent with a single actor or bot cycling orders. The 1-hour window shows a sharp reversal to 2 buys vs. 27 sells, suggesting the recent buying momentum may be stalling at the immediate resistance zone.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d)

Bullish

Medium-Term (30d)

Neutral

The short-term trend is clearly bullish: the last 14 daily closes show a recovery from $0.01479 to $0.01662, a gain of +12.4% from the recent trough, with the 7-day change at +10.3%. The medium-term picture is essentially flat — the 30-day change is only +0.5% — indicating the token spent most of the past month in a tight consolidation range before the recent breakout attempt. Daily volatility of 4.6% (standard deviation of daily returns) is moderate and consistent with a small-cap DeFi token.

Momentum

Status

Neutral

Price is recovering from oversold territory near the $0.01429 major support but has not yet broken through the immediate resistance at $0.01691. Sitting at 22% of the 67-day range, momentum is building but has not confirmed a sustained breakout. The 1-hour sell pressure (27 sells vs. 2 buys) suggests short-term momentum is cooling as price tests the $0.01662–$0.01691 resistance band.

Volume Analysis

Buy

57.8%

Sell

42.2%

Volume Trend

Stable

Daily volume of ~$26,979 represents roughly 0.24% of market cap — low by conventional standards and consistent with a thinly-traded Base ecosystem token. The near-equal buy/sell transaction counts over 4 hours (84 vs. 83) suggest volume is not accelerating meaningfully despite the 7-day price recovery, which limits conviction in the uptrend.

Recent Price Action

The 14-session daily close sequence shows a clear V-shaped recovery: a decline from $0.01677 to a trough of $0.01479, followed by a steady grind higher back to $0.01662. The final session's close at $0.01662 is the highest in the 14-session window.

V-shaped recoveries from range lows can signal genuine demand absorption, but in low-liquidity environments they can also reflect a single buyer accumulating. The pattern is constructive but requires volume confirmation and a clean break above $0.01691 to validate the recovery as a trend reversal rather than a dead-cat bounce.

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$0.01655

Major support

$0.01429

Immediate resistance

$0.01691

Major resistance

$0.02473

The immediate support at $0.01655 is just $0.00007 below current price, making it a thin cushion — a breach would quickly expose the major support at $0.01429 (the 67-day range low, ~14% downside). On the upside, the immediate resistance at $0.01691 is the first meaningful hurdle; a confirmed close above it would open the path toward the major resistance at $0.02473, which represents ~49% upside from current levels and marks the 67-day range high.

AI overall risk

High

Risk Score

68/100

Risk Breakdown

  • VolatilityMedium

    Daily return volatility of 4.6% (standard deviation) is moderate for a small-cap DeFi token. The 67-day range spans $0.01429 to $0.02473 — a 73% spread — indicating meaningful but not extreme price swings. The thin liquidity amplifies realized volatility for any trader of size.

  • LiquidityHigh

    Total Aerodrome liquidity of $273,568 against an $11.3M market cap (~2.4% ratio) is critically shallow. Trades above ~$2,000–$5,000 will incur material slippage, and a sudden liquidity withdrawal could cause severe price dislocation. All recent notable trades were under $500, confirming that even informed traders are constrained by pool depth.

  • ConcentrationNot assessed

    Ownership concentration cannot be assessed without a measured supply distribution.

  • Smart ContractNot assessed

    Contract or authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations.

  • RegulatoryMedium

    As a governance and utility token for a DeFi protocol offering yield products (OETH, OUSD), OGN may attract regulatory scrutiny under securities frameworks in multiple jurisdictions. The staking APY of 3.89% and governance rights could be interpreted as investment contract characteristics in some regulatory environments.

Key Risks

  • Extreme trading concentration: only 3 unique buyers drove 100 buy transactions in 24 hours, meaning apparent buy pressure is likely artificial or bot-driven and does not reflect genuine market demand
  • FDV ($167,364) vs. market cap ($11.3M) anomaly is a critical data inconsistency — if the full project supply of 1.4B tokens is ever bridged to this contract, the dilution impact would be catastrophic for current holders
  • Shallow liquidity of $273,568 creates high slippage and manipulation risk; a single actor with $50,000–$100,000 could move price by 20–30% in either direction

Mitigating Factors

  • Dumpable supply of only 1.5% means insider/whale-driven price crashes are structurally unlikely from the holder distribution alone
  • 25.8-month project age with established DeFi products (OETH, OUSD) and full social presence indicates this is not a new or anonymous project, reducing rug-pull risk relative to newer tokens

Investor Suitability

This token may be suitable for experienced DeFi investors who have independently verified the OGN supply mechanics across the full project (including the Base bridge), understand the liquidity constraints, and are comfortable with the 40/100 security score. It is not suitable for risk-averse investors, those unfamiliar with DeFi slippage dynamics, or anyone who cannot afford to lose their entire position.

OGN on Base represents a bridged position in an established DeFi governance token with real utility (OETH, OUSD) and negligible insider dump risk, but the investment case is complicated by a critical supply data anomaly, shallow liquidity, and a security score of 40/100. The 7-day recovery of +10.3% is the strongest near-term signal, but it is occurring in a thin market dominated by a handful of wallets.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

Origin Protocol's OETH and OUSD products gain traction in the Base DeFi ecosystem, driving genuine demand for OGN governance participation. The 7-day momentum of +10.3% extends toward the major resistance at $0.02473, representing ~49% upside. Holder growth accelerates beyond the current +6.8% monthly pace as Base ecosystem activity increases.

  • Sustained adoption of OETH liquid staking and OUSD yield products on Base, creating organic OGN demand
  • Broader Base ecosystem growth increasing Aerodrome liquidity depth and reducing slippage risk for new entrants

Base Case

OGN consolidates in the $0.01429–$0.01691 range over the next 30–90 days, with the 30-day trend remaining near flat (+0.5%) as it has been. Holder growth continues at the current +6.8% monthly pace, liquidity remains shallow, and price action is driven primarily by the single active smart money trader (0xd0d088) cycling positions.

  • The supply data anomaly (FDV vs. market cap) does not resolve in a way that introduces new selling pressure
  • Aerodrome liquidity remains at approximately current levels and no significant liquidity events occur

Bear Case

Medium probability

The FDV anomaly resolves unfavorably — additional OGN supply is bridged to Base, creating massive dilution. Simultaneously, the shallow $273,568 liquidity pool is withdrawn or the 3-unique-buyer bot activity ceases, causing price to retest the major support at $0.01429 or break below it. The 40/100 security score materializes into an exploitable vulnerability.

  • Resolution of the FDV vs. market cap anomaly through additional supply bridging, causing severe dilution
  • Cessation of the concentrated bot-driven buy activity that has supported the 7-day price recovery

Analysis Details

Generated

Aug 6, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC

Saved observation

2026-08-06 10:18 UTC

Model Confidence

Low

Data Snapshot

Price

$0.016618049178843828

Market Cap

$11.31M

24h Volume

$27.0K

Holders

1,463

Liquidity

$273,568.07

Data Sources

On-chain transaction data (Aerodrome DEX, Base chain)Holder distribution analytics (Moralis holder tier classification)Daily OHLC price history (67-day window)Smart contract security assessment (40/100 score)Smart money realized PnL data (top profitable traders)Notable recent on-chain swap data

Limitations

  • Only 67 days of OHLC history available (90-day change is n/a), limiting the reliability of medium-term trend analysis
  • The FDV vs. market cap anomaly ($167K vs. $11.3M) indicates a potential data feed inconsistency that could not be resolved from available data alone — full project tokenomics require independent verification
  • Extremely low unique buyer count (3 wallets) makes volume and buy pressure metrics unreliable as indicators of genuine market demand

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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