InvestAnswers: historic crash wipes $3.8T, but calls it a buying gift

A historic crash, and a view that it's a buying opportunity, not a top

The host frames the selloff as the worst since the COVID crash of March 2020, calling it part of a recurring pattern of "gray swan" events that hit roughly every 12 to 19 months. He says fear and greed sentiment remains in extreme fear for stocks while crypto fear has barely moved, sitting around 28 versus 26 earlier in the week. The VIX spiked over 75% before partially unwinding, which the host reads as a sign fear can build and dissolve quickly rather than definitive proof of a bottom.

He runs through the damage: Marvell down 29% for the week, Astera down 29%, Micron down 21%, AMD down 12%, Palantir down 12%, Nvidia down nearly 7%, and Tesla down 9% before rebounding. Google was the lone gainer among the names shown, up 2.88%. He notes semiconductors make up 12% of the market but accounted for 30% of the day's losses, with Nvidia alone losing nearly half a trillion dollars in a single day.

The host repeatedly urges viewers to buy into the weakness, saying he personally made five buys in under 24 hours, versus his usual one or two per week. He points to Nvidia trading under its 200-day moving average and at the lowest level on his ATR model, plus Lam Research deep oversold and announcing a $25 billion buyback. He also flags Astera, where he says analysts set price targets of 375 and 315 despite the stock trading near 180.

Crypto holds up relatively better, but ETF flows diverge

Bitcoin fell to $75,500, a level the host notes is almost identical to Michael Saylor's reported cost basis of $75,451 for MicroStrategy. He says Bitcoin only fell 3.95% during the broader crash, calling that "not cataclysmic" compared to equities. November, historically strong for Bitcoin, is down about 2.3% so far.

He attributes much of Bitcoin's weakness to ETF outflows, saying the week saw $870 million leave Bitcoin ETFs and nearly $300 million leave ETH ETFs, with eight of the last nine weeks negative for Ethereum. By contrast, Solana's ETF lost only $1 million this week, which the host suggests explains why Solana traded against Bitcoin and Ethereum on the day, moving up while the other two fell.

"Remember, every billion dollars takes the price. Billion dollars out, price goes down 3%, billion dollars in, price goes up 3%." — the host

AI capex, Tesla's pivot, and a strong jobs surprise

The host says the crash stemmed from a "perfect storm" of elections, capex fears, and worries over a "Guppy level extinction event for neoclouds," a phrase he attributes to Elon Musk. He notes Microsoft reportedly stepped back from renting AI cloud capacity, which he links to Oracle's continued weakness, and speculates without confirmation that SpaceX could be striking a compute deal with Microsoft instead. He also cites hyperscaler capital raises this week: Meta closing $15 billion, Google selling $6 billion in Europe, and Microsoft issuing $25 billion in notes, arguing this shows AI capex spending is not slowing despite the fear.

On Tesla, the host discusses Elon Musk's post that Cybertruck production will be scaled back to make room for more Cybercab output at Giga Texas, interpreting it as a plan to roughly double Cybercab capacity. He also references a retweet calling Tesla's chip effort "moving at Tesla speed, not semiconductor speed."

On macro, the host says the jobs report beat expectations sharply, with 165,000 new jobs against a forecast of 59,000, and unemployment holding steady at 4.1%, which he says likely helped stocks rebound on the day. He closes by referencing a paper on AI's energy-to-GDP value, noting its finding that smaller models can deliver "two and a half times more economic value per unit of energy" than larger ones.