Trader places $68M wager on BTC topping $90K by Nov 6 as Strive overtakes Metaplanet

A $68 million options bet and mixed treasury-flow signals

The host, James, highlights a trade flagged by CoinDesk in which a single wallet bought 800 contracts of $90,000 Bitcoin calls expiring November 6, each contract worth one Bitcoin, making it the largest open Bitcoin position on the exchange at roughly $68 million in face value. He notes the expiry falls three days after the US midterm elections, speculating the buyer expects a post-election catalyst, though he stresses the position needs Bitcoin to rise 12% to be profitable and calls short-term call buying "very risky."

James also runs through Bitcoin's October performance, down about 3.75% for the month and 8.1% year to date, versus Solana down 18%, Ethereum down 21.5% and MicroStrategy down 5.7%. He points to average cost-basis levels from Glassnode of roughly $80,200 for treasury companies and $81,500 for spot ETF holders as psychological support, and notes the realized cap is climbing, which he reads as a sign new money keeps flowing into the network.

ETF flows were mixed: a small positive week after two negative ones, with net inflows of $300 million, including nearly two-thirds of a billion dollars into IBIT in a single day, offset by a $635 million outflow on October 22. James attributes part of the Thursday-Friday selloff to broader AI-trade jitters and to comments from Chamath Palihapitiya.

Treasury companies diverge as Strive surges and Bitmine sits underwater

James reports Strategy did not dilute last week but also did not buy any Bitcoin, instead continuing to repurchase STRC. He urges Michael Saylor directly:

"Stop buying STRC. You're wasting money. Buy Bitcoin and stop diluting us."

Meanwhile Strive bought 6,182 Bitcoin for $511 million in about a week, its biggest purchase ever at roughly $82,000 per Bitcoin, funded partly through a new $1 billion SATS preferred ATM, bringing its total to 43,000 Bitcoin and putting it on track to overtake Metaplanet for third place among treasury holders. NAV premiums stood at 1.03x for Strive (down from 1.46x weeks earlier), 0.71x for Metaplanet, and about 0.95x for MicroStrategy.

On the Ethereum side, James says Bitmine is nearly at its 4.95% target of ETH supply, holding about 6.05 million ETH after adding 10,000 last week, with roughly 55,000–58,000 ETH left to reach 5%. But he calculates Bitmine spent about $20.5 billion on its ETH while the position is worth roughly $13.9 billion today, implying an unrealized loss near $6.42 billion, equivalent to about 2.8 million ETH if converted at current prices. ETH ETFs lost a quarter of a billion dollars last week, which James says is "going counter" to what Strive and Bitcoin ETFs are doing.

He closes with notes on JPMorgan's 10-year outlook naming Bitcoin the top long-term asset with an expected 10% CAGR versus about 5% for gold, Casa's Jameson Lopp dismissing near-term quantum risk to Bitcoin, and Chamath Palihapitiya's renewed "going to zero" comment, which James dismisses by recalling Chamath's own description of Bitcoin as "schmuck insurance."