InvestAnswers models SpaceX compute business alone at $825-$4,000 a share by 2031

Musk's "$100 trillion" claim and the compute buildout behind it

The host says Elon Musk has "never ever in the history sounded this bullish on SpaceX," pointing to a tweet where Musk states SpaceX could be worth

"more than hundred trillion in less than 10 years"

— Elon Musk, unless there is a major world war. Ron Baron is cited with a separate, more conservative estimate of $50 trillion in 10 years, a 25x from current levels, with roughly a third of that attributed to Starlink alone.

The host frames the thesis around compute scarcity rather than chip scarcity: SpaceX can reportedly build facilities in 20 weeks and stand up 100,000 GPUs rapidly, while most competitors take two to four years. Citing a roadmap, he lists Colossus at 150,000 H100s plus 50K H200s and 30K GB200s, and Colossus 2 with 110,000 GB200s and 440,000 GB300s, with additional 220,000-GPU tranches planned through November and December.

A Brownsville, Texas site is described as having 444–445 acres, water access, and 400 megawatts of wind turbines for one "mini heart" facility, with more planned. The host estimates six such buildings could generate "$132 to $180 billion in revenue per year," which he compares to roughly twice Tesla's revenue after nearly two decades of operation.

Total addressable market, Terrafab, and Starlink growth claims

SpaceX's S-1 reportedly states a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion, which Musk has called understated:

"We are wrong. It's vastly higher than that."

— Elon Musk. The host flags this as significant because his price models rely on TAM inputs, meaning prior models may be too conservative if Musk's claim holds.

Morgan Stanley is cited as calling SpaceX's inference and data-center angle "the real engine" that the market has ignored, noting that in a room of investors, "not one hand went up" when asked who owns SpaceX. Terrafab, a chip/memory manufacturing venture reportedly involving TSMC, Nvidia, and Intel, is described with a first-phase investment of $17 billion and 3,000 jobs, with the host suggesting its output value could rank among the top 20 country GDPs.

On Starlink, the host cites analyst John Erish man projecting revenue could grow "925% in 5 years," a roughly 10x figure, which Musk reportedly endorsed as "easy peasy." The host also notes an FAA review of a Starbase expansion that could approve up to 456 launches and 912 landings per year, more than one launch a day.

Merger odds, price targets, and the SpaceX-vs-Bitcoin poll

Barclays reportedly modeled an all-stock SpaceX acquisition of Tesla as the likelier structure, though the host stresses this is speculation, not a confirmed deal, noting Tesla's December 3rd annual meeting has no merger item on the ballot. He cites Kalshi and Polymarket odds of a SpaceX-Tesla merger spiking to "nearly 60%" around spring 2027.

On compute economics, the host cites rumors that SpaceX has locked up 30-40% of Nvidia's Vera Rubin allocation and is in talks with Apollo on $40 billion in Nvidia-linked financing. He references Ark's estimate that Tesla/SpaceX could reach 66-67 gigawatts by 2031, which Musk reportedly called a disappointing floor. Using a base case of 66.5 gigawatts, the host's compute-only model targets $825 a share (5.65x from current levels), rising to nearly $4,000 (21.7x) in a bull case doubling that gigawatt figure, explicitly excluding Launch, Star Shield, and Starlink value.

He ties this to his stated retirement target of 655 SpaceX shares, which at $825 would be worth about $540,000 and at the bull-case price near $2.4 million. Closing with an audience poll, 74% of respondents picked 100 shares of SpaceX over 0.18 Bitcoin as the better four-year performer, with the host stating he believes "AI is the faster horse" while Bitcoin remains a hedge "in case the world goes to poop."