InvestAnswers: SpaceX a "faster horse" than Bitcoin, Solana crushes Near on fundamentals

James says SpaceX looks like a faster horse than Bitcoin

Responding to a Patreon question about whether to stay in Bitcoin or diversify into Tesla and SpaceX, James built valuation models for SpaceX based purely on its compute business. His base case for 2031 assumes about 66.5 gigawatts online, generating $1.98 trillion in revenue and $790 billion in EBITDA, which maps to $825 a share. In a more aggressive scenario matching Elon Musk's own guidance of up to 120 gigawatts, the model produces $3,965 a share.

He compared 2028 and 2030 targets for both assets: a $527 SpaceX price by 2028 (3.61x from current levels) would be equivalent to Bitcoin reaching $296,000, which he called possible but "not likely." For 2030, a $92 SpaceX target (6.2x) would be equivalent to Bitcoin near $500,000.

"What's a faster horse? I would bet more money on SpaceX in this one."

He noted a Patreon poll comparing equal-value Bitcoin and SpaceX positions found 29 votes for SpaceX outperforming over four years versus just 1 for Bitcoin.

JP Morgan's Bitcoin pick comes with a modest return estimate

James noted JP Morgan named Bitcoin its best long-term (decade-plus) asset, ahead of cash and aggregate bonds, but projected only a 10% average annual return, which he calculated would bring Bitcoin to roughly $212,000 by 2036. He called that "not very exciting," noting he personally targets at least 14% returns, and added that JP Morgan flagged Bitcoin as the most volatile asset in its comparison.

Tesla-SpaceX merger math and leverage risk

Answering a question about merging Tesla and SpaceX retirement bags, James said a 30% merger premium is his long-standing prediction and now aligns with Barclays and JP Morgan estimates, implying a ratio of roughly three SpaceX shares per Tesla share. He said needing fewer Tesla shares (down to 215 from 323) to reach a $1 million bag under a 3x scenario reflects merger synergy, while a 4x ratio would lower the requirement to 162 shares. On borrowing to speculate on SpaceX, he reiterated his longstanding rule never to borrow to speculate, illustrating that a 40% drop on a $10,000 loan at 4.8% would require a 74.7% rise just to break even.

Solana dominates Near and Ethereum on fundamentals

Addressing a thesis that Solana and Near serve different purposes, James dismissed Near's AI-agent and privacy branding as "marketing buzzwords" and pointed to data: Solana holds nearly 2,700 times more TVL than Near, daily fees of $561,000 versus $3,700, and 4.6 million daily active users versus Near's 63,000. He noted Ethereum has lost 200,000 daily users in the past month, falling from 638,000 to 450,000.

He said 75% of Near's volume is stablecoin pass-through activity, mainly tether swaps between Tron and Ethereum, calling it "a pass-through, not a destination." On market cap divided by daily transactions, he put Ethereum at $165,000 per transaction, Near at nearly $10,000, and Solana at $360.

"Winner takes most in every single industry I've been looking at for over 36 years."

He added Solana already carries 94.5% of AI agent transactions, even before its Alpenglow upgrade went live.

Quantum computing stocks face "death by dilution"

On Rigetti and IonQ, James said both stocks sit near 2024 price levels despite strong headlines because of heavy dilution: 91.43% for IonQ and 94.16% for Rigetti, which he called "death by dilution." He noted Rigetti trades at about 288 times trailing sales versus IonQ's roughly 50 times sales, with IonQ's last quarter growing 287% year-over-year, making IonQ his preferred name on fundamentals. He dismissed the idea that Google would acquire either company, saying Google is already far ahead in its own quantum research.

China's gold buying and the US-China AI race

On China accumulating over 2,390 tons of gold and expanding its CIPS payment alternative, James said the dollar still represents 56.7% of global reserves (down from 57.18%), though dollar share of SWIFT payments dropped below 50% for the first time in September, to 49.63%. He said this shift is "a long way away from doing anything" meaningful and does not see it as a direct catalyst for Bitcoin. He argued the bigger opportunity for Bitcoin comes indirectly, if newly wealthy AI investors diversify into it, and said he personally prefers AI infrastructure names like SpaceX and Tesla over Bitcoin, calling Bitcoin "schmuck insurance for when everything goes to zero."