Crypto sinks in "Rectember" as host flags bull-cycle buy signals and Meta's AI surprise

Crypto and real estate turn red, but the host says zoom out

The host opens by noting US home sales have "literally come to a halt," falling back to levels last seen during the global financial crisis, and warns of a "death winter" for real estate between Thanksgiving and January. Crypto fared little better over the past week: Bitcoin down 3%, Ethereum down 7.5%, BNB down 6%, XRP down 9%, Solana down 10%, and Hyperliquid down 13%. He calls it "a sea of red."

He urges viewers to zoom out to the 30-day picture, where Bitcoin is up roughly 7-12%, Solana up 6%, and Zcash up 9%, though Ethereum is down nearly 1% over the month despite a strong September. He attributes ETH's weakness partly to ETF outflows that erased a month of inflows in just ten days, while Bitcoin ETFs remain close to breakeven despite three red days out of the last five.

Fear and greed in crypto sits at 57, which he calls "still bullish," down from roughly 61-62 the prior week. Bitcoin is down just 0.59% for October so far, which he says is "not a big deal" given September's 6.36% gain.

A CryptoQuant analyst says the bear cycle is over — but got it backwards before

The host highlights a signal from CryptoQuant's Kim Jong Yu declaring the Bitcoin bear cycle "totally over," with the next 12 to 24 months expected to be bullish or "at the very least sideways." He notes the same analyst posted the opposite call on March 17, 2025, warning of 6-12 months of bearish or sideways action — after which Bitcoin actually rose 55% over roughly 200 days before the bear cycle eventually arrived six months later.

He treats this as a lesson in timing rather than dismissing the analyst:

"timing is everything but timing is also very hard"

— the host. He also cites a CryptoQuant-style chart mapping market cap to fees/revenue, naming Tron, BNB, Solana and Ethereum as crypto's "cash machines," while calling Algorand and Polkadot "super dead chains."

AI stocks whipsaw as Meta's new model beats OpenAI and Anthropic

Stock market fear and greed sits at 44, down from around 49. Palantir rose 9.13% on the week while Google gained 2.15%, but AI hardware names were hit hard: Micron down 10.5%, AMD down 11.4%, Marvell down 11.4%, Astera Labs down 21.73%, and Cerebras down nearly 18% "on fear that OpenAI is not making enough money." Over 30 days, however, the same names show large gains — Nvidia up over 6%, Astera Labs up 20%, Palantir up 21%.

The host flags Meta's "Muse Wonderful" model scoring 59.1 on a personal super-intelligence index versus 54.5 for GPT and 53.2 for Claude Opus 5.5, and outperforming on legal (Harvey test: 13.1 vs 8.6 and 4.2) and finance (Val's test: 59.1 vs 58.9 and 53.5) benchmarks. He says this "does not bode well" for the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs. He also cites a Lancet-reviewed study at Beth Israel Deaconess where an AI's diagnosis list matched the doctor's conclusion in 90% of 98 urgent care cases with zero safety interventions.

Robots, domains and no rate hike expected

The host points to a circulating table, inspired by Elon Musk's humanoid robot projections, suggesting a path from zero to as many as a billion humanoid robots within a few years, noting Tesla's planned 10-million-unit factory and over 100 Chinese humanoid manufacturers. He urges small businesses to secure internet domain names now, arguing they will function as collateral and payment rails for both humans and AI agents, and notes Grok 0.70.2 will let agents have their own email addresses.

On Palantir, he says "250 bucks is the new 200 bucks" as firms including Baird, Barclays, Goldman Sachs and UBS raise price targets, with earnings expected November 2. Strive reportedly added roughly 33,000 Bitcoin last week versus Strategy's 250, prompting the host to say Michael Saylor should "buy Bitcoin and don't dilute." On macro, he puts odds of no rate hike at the October 29 Fed meeting at 76%, arguing there is "no inflation" once AI-driven spending is excluded.