InvestAnswers: Bitcoin down 34% from ATH but up 45% off bottom, TD Cowan sees $109K by end-2026

Mixed near-term signals: ETF outflows versus a shrinking bear shadow

The host opens with what he calls the "Bitcoin bear corner," noting Bitcoin is down only 1% in October despite expectations of strength, and reminds viewers that October is historically up "70% of the time." The bigger concern is ETF flows: last week saw $681 million leave Bitcoin ETFs, which the host says maps to roughly a 2% price decline using his rule of thumb that "for every billion that flows in, the price goes up by 3%, every billion that flows out, the price will fall by about 3%."

On the chart side, the host says Bitcoin is down 34% from its all-time high, 367 days after the "1010" black swan event, but is up 45% from the bottom and has been out of the bear shadow for "nearly two months." He contrasts this with a bearish chart circulating on Twitter projecting a "30k dream" in early 2027 and a "40k dream" in 2029–2030 based on connecting prior cycle tops and bottoms, saying plainly, "I do not believe in this forecast. I don't believe it at all."

Other bearish data points include a Coinbase premium discount of about $60–$64, which the host calls "typically a bearish signal," the lowest since July, and Michael Saylor's Strategy showing a Bitcoin yield down 3.7% year-to-date — "the first time ever in the history" — despite holding a record 24,954 coins, a discrepancy the host says he wants to dig into further.

Cold storage warnings and a supply crunch narrative

The host flags two cold-storage security incidents in one day. Cold Card's X account was hacked and used to post a malicious link exploiting fears from a prior "$130 million wallet crisis" in July. Separately, a figure referred to as Johannes reportedly found that compromised Ledger devices sold by a modified reseller in Asia have now turned up in Europe, including German retailers like Media Markt, with hidden "telco transmitting devices inside the key" designed to exfiltrate seed phrases. The host stresses: "It takes a lifetime to make it and a second to lose it," and advises only buying hardware wallets directly from the source.

On the bullish side, the host points to a "supply crunch": exchange balances have fallen from about 3.2 million Bitcoin a year ago to roughly 700,000 less today, with coins moving into custody at firms like Coinbase and Fidelity. He also highlights mining economics, noting older Antminer S19 rigs cost "86,700 bucks" in electricity to mine one Bitcoin, calling operators running them "cooked," while newer S21 rigs cost about $44,300, leaving room for margin.

Price targets, borrowing rates, and new tax risks

The host cites a reported TD Cowan forecast of $109,000 Bitcoin by end of 2026 and $280,000 by 2029, and notes Wall Street analysts covering MicroStrategy are uniformly bullish — "every single one of them has a buy or strong buy" — with Barclays raising its target from $130 to $160 to $175, and an average Street target of $236 implying "55% gainer from here."

Strike has cut its Bitcoin-backed borrowing rate from 13.25% to 11.25%, which the host frames as useful for holders wanting liquidity without selling, while cautioning on loan-to-value risk. He also flags a French plan for a 30% exit tax on crypto gains above roughly $800,000–$890,000, warning holders in France or similar jurisdictions to "think about finding a way to exit that before they start making it law." He closes on currency debasement data from River showing "every major currency devalued by 70%" since 1971 except the Swiss Franc, framing it as his underlying case for Bitcoin: "This is why we Bitcoin."