T-Kalshi Price Today & AI Analysis

tKalshiSolanaAnalysis as of Sep 6, 2026

$448.69

-0.19% 24h

Contract

Live

TKLSidmLVt3cqGaaodG8tyRzoANfQwoh67AccjmubeZ

Chain

Solana

Holders

2,822

Market cap

$698,999

At a $10M market cap, $TKALSHI would be $6,419.1 (14.3x from today’s price)

Market cap calculator

Is tKalshi a scam?

Unhosted check · Oct 20

Transfer fee

No scam signals, but every transfer pays a 0.2% fee and the owner can still raise it.

Can you sell?

Yes, for nowThe owner can freeze holders’ tokens

Transfer fee

0.2%Every buy and sell · can be raised

The owner can freeze holders’ tokens.
The owner can still mint new supply.

Read from the token’s own on-chain settings, with Unhosted’s automated check: a warning signal, not a guarantee either way. The settings say whether the token can block or tax a sell, not whether its pool has the liquidity to sell into.

Ask Unhosted AI about tKalshi

3 free answers a day

What's Twitter saying?Sentiment, KOL mentions, top tweets Whale activityWho is accumulating or distributing What are the risks?Red flags, security, concentration Should I buy?Bull case, bear case, entry / exit

More tokens on Solana

AgencyAgency$0.000735-26.8%MC $702.6K

foneapeonfone$0.003427-7.1%MC $3.39M

FOOfficial FO$0.1106-6.8%MC $97.03M

XTOXTO$0.0₅4318-100.0%MC $4.3K

CYBERLEEKCyberLeek$0.003065+23.0%MC $2.24M

KimchiAura Final Boss$0.0321+72231.7%MC $31.98M

T-Kalshi: holders, selling & liquidity

2026-09-06 12:49 UTC

Holder addresses

Not available

Top 10 supply share

Not available

Reported liquidity

$143,317.00

How concentrated is T-Kalshi ownership?: Top-10 ownership concentration is not available in this report. The holder count is also unavailable. A holder count alone does not establish how supply is distributed.
Are large holders selling T-Kalshi?: This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. A complete buy/sell volume observation is not available in the saved inputs. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.
Is T-Kalshi liquidity falling?: As of 2026-09-06 12:49 UTC, reported liquidity was $143,317.00. At least two timestamped liquidity observations are needed to establish a change; this report does not have them.

Sources, observations & limitations

Source: inputs saved with the report generated 2026-09-06 12:49 UTC. Original provider retrieval times and historical samples were not recorded. Legacy zero placeholders are treated as unavailable. Holder addresses are not unique people. The provider’s top-10 share is not adjusted here for pools, exchanges, burn addresses or related wallets. Sniper classifications and wallet-level holder history are unavailable. Inspect token on the block explorer.

Recent swap evidence

Swap evidence is unavailable for this report.

Report snapshot

as of Sep 6, 12:49 PM UTC

FDV

$690,202

Liquidity

$143,317.00

Holders

Not available

Snipers

Not available

Risk

High

Loading price chart…

1h chart read; Support, resistance, Fibonacci and RSI divergence are drawn on the chart once it loads.

Ask Wick about this chart

AI Executive Summary

Risk

High

Sentiment

Neutral

T-Kalshi (tKalshi) is a structured loan-position token on Solana, issued by Tessera Issuer Inc, providing economic exposure to Kalshi (a prediction markets platform). Token holders act as lenders of stablecoins and are entitled to principal plus interest upon divestment. The token is NOT a security — holders have no ownership, voting, or dividend rights. With a total supply of only ~1,558 tokens and a current price of ~$443, the FDV is approximately $690K. The token trades on Meteora and has shown a sharp price spike in candle 15 (+4.3% in a single hour on very high volume), followed by consolidation in the $440–$444 range. This is a niche, structured-finance instrument with limited on-chain transparency.

Key points

Structured loan product — not a speculative meme token; holders are lenders with contractual exposure to Kalshi
Extremely low total supply (~1,558 tokens), resulting in a high per-token price (~$443) and FDV of ~$690K
Sharp single-candle price spike (+4.3%) on 588K volume in candle 15, suggesting a significant liquidity event or large buy
Positive 24h buy/sell imbalance: 52.4% buy pressure, 5,671 buys vs 4,737 sells
No sniper data available, reducing early-buyer manipulation risk assessment

AI Price Analysis

neutral

Short term · 24–48 hours

neutral

After a sharp spike to ~$443.38 (candle 15 high), price has consolidated in the $440–$444 range over the last 9 candles. The current price of $443.01 sits near the top of this consolidation band. Short-term direction is neutral-to-slightly-bullish given persistent buy pressure (52.4%), but the spike candle's wick suggests sellers emerged near $444.64. A retest of the $437–$439 zone is plausible if buying momentum fades.

Target low

$433.87

Target high

$444.64

Support: $441.11, $437.38, $433.87
Resistance: $443.60, $444.64, $426.68

Medium term · 1–4 weeks

bullish

If the underlying Kalshi exposure performs well and the issuer (Tessera Issuer Inc) maintains solvency and redemption commitments, the token's value is anchored to principal + interest accrual. Medium-term price appreciation depends on broader Kalshi valuation events (e.g., divestment announcements). The token's structured nature means price should trend toward redemption value over time, providing a mild bullish bias if the issuer is credible.

Catalysts

Announcement of Kalshi divestment or liquidity event by Tessera Issuer Inc
Continued buy-side dominance (52.4% buy pressure) sustaining upward price drift
Broader Solana DeFi market expansion increasing structured-product demand
Interest accrual increasing the redemption value of the token over time

Bullish factors

Positive 24h price change of +5.66%
Buy pressure exceeds sell pressure: 52.4% buys, 5,671 buys vs 4,737 sells
More unique buyers (1,665) than sellers (1,353) in 24h
Token is anchored to a real-world loan product with stated redemption value
Candle 15 spike to $443.38 on 588K volume shows strong demand event

Bearish factors

Issuer (Tessera Issuer Inc) counterparty risk is entirely off-chain and unverifiable
Total liquidity is only $143.32K — very shallow relative to FDV of $690K
Update authority, mint authority, and freeze authority are all unknown — potential rug risk
Post-spike consolidation with declining volume suggests momentum may be fading
No verified contract, no on-chain governance, no holder transparency

Confidence: low. Confidence is low due to: (1) no holder or whale data available, (2) no sniper data, (3) the token's value is fundamentally tied to an off-chain legal/financial arrangement with Tessera Issuer Inc that cannot be verified on-chain, (4) update authority and contract verification status are unknown, and (5) the token's structured-finance nature makes standard TA less predictive.

tKalshi call history

Full track record →

Sep 6neutral@ $443.01

24h—

7d—

30d+0.7%

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

Chain: Solana
Contract: TKLSid...ubeZ
Total Supply: 1,557.982694303 tKalshi

Key Risks

Counterparty risk: Token value depends entirely on Tessera Issuer Inc honoring the loan redemption — this is an off-chain legal obligation with no on-chain enforcement
Unknown mint/freeze/update authorities — potential for token supply manipulation or transfer freezing
Shallow liquidity ($143.32K) relative to FDV ($690K) and 24h volume ($865K) — high slippage and exit risk
Single trading pair on Meteora — no liquidity diversification

Smart money & sniper coverage

Sniper classifications and wallet-level trading histories are not available in this report. Sniper concentration, profit-taking and dump risk have not been assessed.

Deep Analysis

24 hourly candles from 2026-09-05T13:00Z to 2026-09-06T12:00Z. Price ranged from a low of $417.64 (candle 4) to a high of $444.64 (candle 21). The first 14 candles (13:00–02:00) traded in a tight $417.64–$426.68 range with modest volume (3,800–28,800 USD/hr). Candle 15 (03:00) was the defining event: a massive bullish candle opening at $425.15, spiking to $443.38, and closing at $439.84 on 588K volume — roughly 10–20x the prior hourly average. Candles 16–24 show consolidation between $440–$444 with declining but still elevated volume (26K–57K/hr), forming a high-level base after the spike.

Trend

Short-term

Uptrend

Medium-term

Uptrend

The 24h candle sequence shows a clear uptrend initiated by the candle 15 spike. Prior to the spike, price was in a mild sideways-to-slightly-bullish drift from $417.64 to $426.68. Post-spike, price has held above $440, establishing a new higher base. The overall 24h trend is bullish, though the post-spike consolidation introduces uncertainty about continuation.

Momentum & Volume

Momentum

Neutral

Volume trend

Decreasing

Buy

52%

Sell

48%

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$441.11

Major support

$433.87

Immediate resistance

$443.60

Major resistance

$444.64

Immediate support at $441.11 (candle 19 low and candle 20 open). Major support at $433.87 (candle 16 low), which represents the post-spike pullback floor. Immediate resistance at $443.60 (candle 24 high / candle 22 high cluster). Major resistance at $444.64 (candle 21 all-time high in this dataset). A breakout above $444.64 would signal continuation; a break below $433.87 would suggest the spike is being fully retraced.

Notable patterns

Candle 15: Massive bullish spike candle — open $425.15, high $443.38, close $439.84 on 588K volume (10–20x average) — dominant demand event
Candles 16–24: Post-spike consolidation / high-level base formation in $440–$444 range
Candle 17: Secondary volume spike (384K) with bullish close at $443.02 — confirms demand continuation
Candles 1–14: Tight pre-spike range ($417.64–$426.68) with gradually increasing volume into the breakout
Candle 7: Bearish reversal candle — open/high at $422.93, close at $419.71 — minor rejection before the main spike
Candle 20: Bullish candle with open = low ($441.11) and close = high ($441.99) — strong buying at support
Overall pattern: Breakout-and-hold structure; price has not retraced below the candle 15 close ($439.84)

Liquidity

$143,317.00

Depth

Shallow

Slippage risk

High

Total liquidity of $143.32K is very shallow relative to the FDV of $690.20K (liquidity-to-FDV ratio of ~20.8%) and relative to 24h trading volume of ~$865K. This means large trades will incur significant slippage. The 24h net flow is positive (inflow): $452.86K in buys vs $412.14K in sells, a net inflow of ~$40.7K. Unique buyers (1,665) exceed unique sellers (1,353) by ~23%, indicating broader buy-side participation. The token trades on a single Meteora pair (CGYxcqLiJEoYapZrU7uVGBGfEE15pXDV4mB9AQ8Fsuff), concentrating all liquidity risk in one pool. The shallow liquidity combined with the candle 15 spike volume of $588K suggests that large orders can move the price significantly.

Supply & authorities

Total supply

1,557.982694303 tKalshi

FDV

$690,202

Mint authority

Not available

Freeze authority

Not available

Mint and freeze authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations. Metadata update authority does not establish either permission.

Volatilityhigh
Price spiked +4.3% in a single hour (candle 15) on 588K volume, demonstrating high intraday volatility. The 24h range spans $417.64 to $444.64 (~6.4%). For a structured loan product, this level of price volatility is unusual and suggests speculative trading behavior overlaid on the loan mechanics.
Liquidityhigh
Total liquidity of $143.32K is very shallow. With 24h volume of ~$865K (6x the liquidity pool), large trades will cause significant slippage. Exit liquidity for large holders is severely limited. Single Meteora pool concentration amplifies this risk.
ConcentrationNot assessed
Ownership concentration cannot be assessed without a measured supply distribution.
Sniper DumpNot assessed
Sniper classifications and wallet trading histories are unavailable.
AuthorityNot assessed
Contract or authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations.

Key risks

Counterparty risk: Token value depends entirely on Tessera Issuer Inc honoring the loan redemption — this is an off-chain legal obligation with no on-chain enforcement
Unknown mint/freeze/update authorities — potential for token supply manipulation or transfer freezing
Shallow liquidity ($143.32K) relative to FDV ($690K) and 24h volume ($865K) — high slippage and exit risk
Single trading pair on Meteora — no liquidity diversification
No verified contract, no on-chain governance, no holder transparency
Structured loan product may not be legally enforceable in all jurisdictions
Token description contains legal disclaimers that shift risk entirely to token holders

Mitigating factors

Token is framed as a loan product with stated redemption mechanics, providing a theoretical price floor at principal value
Positive 24h buy/sell imbalance (52.4% buy pressure) and more buyers than sellers suggests current market confidence
No sniper dump risk identified from available data
Social links (Twitter, Telegram, website) suggest some level of project communication infrastructure
24h price appreciation of +5.66% indicates current market demand

Suitable for

This token is suitable ONLY for sophisticated investors who: (1) have thoroughly reviewed and accepted the Terms and Conditions from Tessera Issuer Inc, (2) understand and accept the counterparty risk of an off-chain loan arrangement, (3) can tolerate high volatility and illiquidity, and (4) have independently verified the legal enforceability of the loan structure. It is NOT suitable for retail investors seeking speculative gains or those unfamiliar with structured credit products.

T-Kalshi is a structured loan token providing economic exposure to Kalshi (a prediction markets platform) via a loan to Tessera Issuer Inc. The investment thesis is fundamentally different from typical crypto tokens: value accrual comes from interest payments and principal redemption upon divestment, not from speculative price appreciation. The token has shown strong 24h momentum (+5.66%) driven by a major volume event, but the core risk is off-chain counterparty exposure to Tessera Issuer Inc and unknown on-chain authority status.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

Tessera Issuer Inc successfully divests its Kalshi exposure at a favorable valuation, triggering full principal + interest redemption for token holders. Kalshi's prediction market business grows significantly, increasing the underlying asset value. On-chain demand for the token increases as more investors seek structured Kalshi exposure, driving price toward and above redemption value.

Successful Kalshi divestment event announced by Tessera Issuer Inc
Kalshi platform growth and increased valuation of underlying exposure
Continued buy-side dominance sustaining price appreciation
Interest accrual increasing redemption value over time
Broader institutional adoption of on-chain structured credit products

Base Case

The token continues to trade in the $430–$450 range as a niche structured-finance instrument. Interest accrues slowly, providing modest upward price pressure. Liquidity remains shallow, limiting both upside and downside velocity. The token maintains its current holder base without significant new adoption or major redemption events in the near term.

Tessera Issuer Inc remains solvent and operational
No mint/freeze authority misuse occurs
Meteora liquidity pool remains active and accessible
No major Kalshi-related news events (positive or negative) in the near term
Current buy/sell balance (~52/48) persists, maintaining price stability

Bear Case

Medium probability

Tessera Issuer Inc defaults on or delays the loan redemption, rendering the token worthless or significantly impaired. Unknown mint/freeze authorities are exploited to manipulate supply or freeze transfers. Shallow liquidity causes a cascade of slippage-driven selling if a large holder exits.

Tessera Issuer Inc counterparty default or insolvency
Mint or freeze authority misuse by unknown parties
Large holder exit causing severe slippage in the $143K liquidity pool
Regulatory action against the structured loan product structure
Kalshi underlying exposure declining in value prior to divestment

Analysis details

Generated

Sep 6, 12:49 PM UTC

Saved observation

2026-09-06 12:49 UTC

Model confidence

Low

Data sources

Token metadata (Mint: TKLSidmLVt3cqGaaodG8tyRzoANfQwoh67AccjmubeZ)
24-hour OHLC hourly candle data (24 candles, 2026-09-05T13:00Z to 2026-09-06T12:00Z)
Trading analytics (buy/sell volume, buyer/seller counts, price changes)
Liquidity data (Meteora pair CGYxcqLiJEoYapZrU7uVGBGfEE15pXDV4mB9AQ8Fsuff)
Sniper analysis endpoint (returned no data)

Limitations

Holder data is entirely unavailable — holder count, growth trends, and wallet distribution cannot be assessed
Whale/concentration data is unavailable — top holder percentages cannot be calculated
Sniper data is unavailable — early buyer behavior and dump risk cannot be quantified
Mint authority, freeze authority, update authority, and mutable status are all unknown
Contract verification status is unknown
The token's value is fundamentally tied to an off-chain legal arrangement (loan to Tessera Issuer Inc) that cannot be verified on-chain
Only 24 hourly candles are available — insufficient for medium/long-term technical analysis
24h dollar change and native price are not provided
6h price change is not provided
Unique wallet count for 24h is not provided

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does NOT constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. T-Kalshi is a structured loan product with significant off-chain counterparty risk. All on-chain data is treated as untrusted evidence. Token metadata, descriptions, and labels are supplied by the token creator and may be inaccurate or misleading. Past price performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making investment decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is T-Kalshi (tKalshi) a scam?

No scam signals, but every transfer pays a 0.2% fee and the owner can still raise it. The owner can freeze holders’ tokens. The owner can still mint new supply. Checked Oct 20, 2026. This is Unhosted’s automated risk check, a warning signal rather than a guarantee either way.

Can I sell T-Kalshi (tKalshi)?

Nothing in the token blocks a sell today, but the owner can freeze holders’ tokens, which would stop a sell. Every buy and sell pays a 0.2% transfer fee, and the owner can still raise it. Checked Oct 20, 2026. This reads the token’s own settings; whether its pool has enough liquidity to sell into is a separate question.

How concentrated is T-Kalshi ownership?

Top-10 ownership concentration is not available in this report. The holder count is also unavailable. A holder count alone does not establish how supply is distributed.

Are large holders selling T-Kalshi?

This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. A complete buy/sell volume observation is not available in the saved inputs. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.

Is T-Kalshi liquidity falling?

As of 2026-09-06 12:49 UTC, reported liquidity was $143,317.00. At least two timestamped liquidity observations are needed to establish a change; this report does not have them.

What is the short-term price outlook for T-Kalshi (tKalshi)?

Is tKalshi a safe investment on Solana?

The AI assessment rates overall risk as high with a risk score of 7.8/100. This token is suitable ONLY for sophisticated investors who: (1) have thoroughly reviewed and accepted the Terms and Conditions from Tessera Issuer Inc, (2) understand and accept the counterparty risk of an off-chain loan arrangement, (3) can tolerate high volatility and illiquidity, and (4) have independently verified the legal enforceability of the loan structure. It is NOT suitable for retail investors seeking speculative gains or those unfamiliar with structured credit products.

What are the key risks of holding tKalshi?

Counterparty risk: Token value depends entirely on Tessera Issuer Inc honoring the loan redemption — this is an off-chain legal obligation with no on-chain enforcement • Unknown mint/freeze/update authorities — potential for token supply manipulation or transfer freezing • Shallow liquidity ($143.32K) relative to FDV ($690K) and 24h volume ($865K) — high slippage and exit risk