NOGAY

nogay Price Today & AI Analysis

NOGAYSolanaAnalysis as of Aug 3, 2026

Price

$0.054089

-1.88% 24h · FDV $4,066

Contract

Live
C3RfugybjxYDsJDYtooFf5WU5p5Mrhc6Q1xR2QGJpump

Chain

Solana

Holders

547

Market cap

$4,066

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Report snapshot

as of Aug 3, 10:17 PM UTC

FDV

$197,462

Liquidity

$48,723

Holders

0

Snipers

0

Risk

Very High

AI Executive Summary

Risk

Very High

Sentiment

Bearish

NOGAY (C3RfugybjxYDsJDYtooFf5WU5p5Mrhc6Q1xR2QGJpump) is a meme token on Solana launched via PumpSwap with a total supply of ~994.4M tokens and a fully diluted valuation of ~$197.5K. The token exhibits extreme volatility — candle [2] shows a price range from $0.0000245 to $0.000474 in a single hour — and heavily skewed sell pressure (77.6% sell volume vs. 22.4% buy volume). Liquidity is very shallow at $48.72K. The token description contains offensive language, which is a common tactic in low-quality meme tokens. No verified contract, unknown update authority, and no sniper data are available.

Key points

  • Extreme intra-hour volatility: candle [2] shows a 19x range (low $0.0000245 to high $0.000474) in a single hour
  • Heavily sell-dominated: 77.6% sell pressure, 5,460 sells vs. 1,077 buys in 24h
  • Very shallow liquidity at $48.72K against a $197.5K FDV
  • Offensive/provocative token description — a common low-quality meme token signal
  • No verified contract, update authority unknown, mutable flag false

AI Price Analysis

bearish

Short term · 1–24 hours

bearish

The token is under severe sell pressure with 77.6% of 24h volume being sells and a -12.6% price decline in 24h. The most recent candle (hour [1]) shows a recovery from the extreme low of candle [2], but the close at $0.000199 is well below the candle [2] high of $0.000474, suggesting the spike was a pump-and-dump event. Short-term direction is bearish with high probability of continued decline toward the candle [2] low range.

Target low

$0.000025

Target high

$0.000213

Support

$0.000181 (candle [1] low), $0.000025 (candle [2] low)

Resistance

$0.000213 (candle [1] high / candle [2] close area), $0.000474 (candle [2] spike high)

Medium term · 1–4 weeks

bearish

With shallow liquidity, dominant sell pressure, no verified contract, and a meme-only value proposition, the medium-term outlook is bearish. Without a sustained community catalyst or new liquidity injection, the token is likely to drift toward its lower price range or become illiquid.

Catalysts

  • Viral social media campaign driving new buyer inflow
  • Listing on a centralized exchange (unlikely given current metrics)
  • Broader Solana meme token market rally

Bullish factors

  • 5-minute price change of +4.03% suggests very short-term buying interest
  • Token has social links (Telegram, Twitter, website) indicating some community presence
  • FDV of $197.5K is very low, leaving theoretical upside if community grows

Bearish factors

  • 77.6% sell pressure over 24h (5,460 sells vs. 1,077 buys)
  • -12.6% price decline in 24h
  • Candle [2] shows a massive spike followed by rapid collapse — classic pump-and-dump pattern
  • Liquidity of only $48.72K creates extreme slippage risk
  • No verified contract, unknown update authority
  • Offensive description typical of low-effort meme tokens

Confidence: low. Only 2 hourly OHLC candles are available, no holder data exists, no sniper data is available, and the token has extremely thin liquidity. Price predictions are highly speculative under these conditions.

NOGAY call history

Full track record →

Aug 3bearish
24h+37.4%
7d+251.8%
30d-97.0%

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

Chain
Solana
Contract
C3Rfug...pump
Total Supply
994,381,128.86

Key Risks

  • Extreme price volatility — 19x intra-hour range observed in available data
  • Very shallow liquidity ($48.72K) creating high slippage and exit risk
  • Dominant sell pressure: 77.6% of 24h volume is sells, 1,386 sellers vs. 518 buyers
  • Pump-and-dump candle pattern strongly evident in candle [2]

Smart Money & Sniper Analysis

low confidenceLow risk

No sniper data is available for this token. Smart money signals cannot be derived from sniper activity. The only observable signal is the extreme pump-and-dump candle pattern in candle [2], which suggests coordinated buying and rapid selling by early participants, but this cannot be confirmed without sniper/wallet-level data.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Sniper details

Sniper concentration
0.00%
PnL state
Unknown
Sell-through rate
Unknown
Profit-taking risk
low

No sniper data available

Unknown — no sniper or early buyer wallet data is available. The candle [2] spike pattern is consistent with early buyers having already exited at elevated prices, leaving later buyers holding at a loss.

Deep Analysis

Only 2 hourly candles are available. Candle [2] (21:00 UTC) is an extreme spike candle: open $0.0000278, high $0.000474, low $0.0000245, close $0.000211 — a massive wick-heavy candle with a ~19x intra-hour range and volume of $412K, strongly indicative of a pump-and-dump or bot-driven spike. Candle [1] (22:00 UTC) opened at $0.000207 (near candle [2] close), reached a high of $0.000214, a low of $0.000181, and closed at $0.000199 with volume of only $8.45K — a significant volume collapse suggesting the spike energy has dissipated and price is consolidating/declining.

Trend

Short-term

Downtrend

Medium-term

Downtrend

The price spiked dramatically in candle [2] and has since pulled back in candle [1]. The close of candle [1] ($0.000199) is below candle [2]'s close ($0.000211), and volume has collapsed from $412K to $8.45K. The short and medium-term trend is downward from the spike high.

Momentum & Volume

Momentum

Overbought

Volume trend

Decreasing

Buy

22%

Sell

78%

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$0.000181 (candle [1] low)

Major support

$0.000025 (candle [2] absolute low)

Immediate resistance

$0.000213 (candle [1] high)

Major resistance

$0.000474 (candle [2] spike high)

The immediate support at $0.000181 is the candle [1] low. A break below this opens the path to the candle [2] low of $0.0000245. Resistance at $0.000213 aligns with the candle [1] high and candle [2] close. The $0.000474 spike high is a major overhead resistance that is unlikely to be retested without significant new buying.

Notable patterns

  • Extreme wick candle in candle [2]: massive upper and lower wicks with a relatively small body — classic pump-and-dump or manipulation candle
  • Volume exhaustion: 98% volume drop from candle [2] to candle [1]
  • Bearish follow-through: candle [1] closes below candle [2] close, confirming downward pressure post-spike
  • Potential dead-cat bounce: 5-minute +4% move may represent a brief relief rally within a broader downtrend

Liquidity

Liquidity

$48,720

Depth

Shallow

Slippage risk

High

Liquidity is extremely shallow at $48.72K against a $197.5K FDV — a liquidity-to-FDV ratio of ~24.7%, which is very low and means even modest sell orders will cause significant price impact. The 24h net flow is strongly negative: $323.41K in sell volume vs. $93.41K in buy volume, with 1,386 unique sellers vs. 518 unique buyers. The sell-to-buy ratio of 2.68x sellers to buyers and 3.46x sell-to-buy volume ratio indicates a market in active distribution. Slippage risk is high for any position of meaningful size. The token is trading on PumpSwap (pair 3z1zRHhzBH2rRKcQ8PJZUutKpg5ziB34D8an1GUp3VcD), which is a low-liquidity venue for early-stage meme tokens.

Flow (24h)

Buy volume

$93,410

Sell volume

$323,410

Net flow

Outflow

Unique buyers

518

Unique sellers

1,386

Supply & authorities

Total supply

994,381,128.86

FDV

$197,462

Mint authority

Active

Freeze authority

Active

Total supply is ~994.4M tokens with an FDV of ~$197.5K at current prices. The update authority is listed as 'unknown' in the metadata, so mint and freeze authority status cannot be confirmed. The token is marked as 'mutable: false', which is a positive signal suggesting metadata cannot be changed, but this does not confirm mint/freeze authority status. The contract is not verified. The token was launched via PumpSwap, consistent with a PumpFun-style launch. The offensive description ('If you're not a holder, you're gay!') is a common low-effort meme token tactic and adds no fundamental value. Rug risk from authorities is classified as unknown due to insufficient metadata.

  • Volatilityhigh

    Candle [2] shows a 19x intra-hour price range ($0.0000245 to $0.000474). The token is capable of losing 90%+ of its value within a single hour, as demonstrated by the data.

  • Liquidityhigh

    Total liquidity is only $48.72K. Any sell order above a few hundred dollars will cause significant slippage. Exit liquidity for larger positions is effectively nonexistent.

  • Concentrationhigh

    Holder distribution data is unavailable, but the pump-and-dump candle pattern and extreme sell pressure suggest a small number of wallets drove the initial spike and have since been distributing. Concentration risk is presumed high.

  • Sniper Dumphigh

    No sniper data is available, but the candle [2] spike pattern (massive volume spike followed by rapid price collapse) is highly consistent with sniper/bot activity followed by a coordinated dump. Risk is elevated by the absence of confirmatory data.

  • Authoritymedium

    Update authority is unknown. The token is marked mutable: false, which reduces metadata manipulation risk, but mint and freeze authority status cannot be confirmed, leaving residual authority risk.

Key risks

  • Extreme price volatility — 19x intra-hour range observed in available data
  • Very shallow liquidity ($48.72K) creating high slippage and exit risk
  • Dominant sell pressure: 77.6% of 24h volume is sells, 1,386 sellers vs. 518 buyers
  • Pump-and-dump candle pattern strongly evident in candle [2]
  • No verified contract and unknown update authority
  • Offensive/low-effort token description typical of scam/rug-pull meme tokens
  • No holder or whale distribution data available to assess concentration risk
  • No sniper data available to assess early buyer exit risk

Mitigating factors

  • Token is marked mutable: false, reducing metadata manipulation risk
  • Social links (Telegram, Twitter, website) suggest some community infrastructure exists
  • FDV of $197.5K is very low, limiting absolute dollar loss for small positions
  • Token appears to be trading (not yet dead) with 1,718 unique wallets active in 24h

Suitable for

This token is suitable ONLY for highly experienced, risk-tolerant speculators who fully understand they may lose 100% of their investment. It is NOT suitable for retail investors, long-term holders, or anyone investing more than they can afford to lose entirely. The combination of extreme volatility, shallow liquidity, dominant sell pressure, and pump-and-dump price action makes this one of the highest-risk token profiles possible.

NOGAY is a high-risk, low-quality meme token on Solana with no discernible fundamental value. The token experienced a dramatic pump-and-dump event in the observed data window, with price spiking ~19x intra-hour before collapsing. Sell pressure dominates at 77.6% of volume. Liquidity is extremely shallow. The only speculative bull case rests on viral meme momentum, which is unsubstantiated by current data.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

Viral meme momentum drives a new wave of retail buyers, pushing price back toward the candle [2] spike high of $0.000474 or beyond. Community growth on Telegram/Twitter accelerates, attracting new liquidity.

  • Viral social media campaign on Twitter/Telegram
  • Broader Solana meme season rally lifting all meme tokens
  • Influencer promotion driving retail FOMO

Base Case

The token stabilizes in the $0.000100–$0.000200 range with low trading volume and a small, stagnant community. It neither pumps significantly nor collapses entirely, slowly losing value over weeks as interest fades.

  • Some residual community activity maintains minimal buy pressure
  • Liquidity pool remains intact at current levels
  • No major new catalyst or rug event occurs in the near term

Bear Case

High probability

Sell pressure continues to dominate, liquidity dries up further, and the token price drifts toward the candle [2] low of $0.0000245 or lower. The token becomes effectively illiquid and trading ceases.

  • Continued 77.6% sell pressure exhausting buy-side liquidity
  • Liquidity providers withdrawing from the $48.72K pool
  • No new catalysts to attract buyers
  • Pump-and-dump participants completing their distribution

Analysis details

Generated

Aug 3, 10:17 PM UTC

Data freshness

Data reflects on-chain state as of approximately 2026-08-03T22:00 UTC based on the most recent OHLC candle timestamp

Model confidence

Low

Data sources

  • On-chain metadata (Mint: C3RfugybjxYDsJDYtooFf5WU5p5Mrhc6Q1xR2QGJpump)
  • USD price feed and 24h price change data
  • OHLC hourly candles (2 candles available)
  • Trading analytics (buy/sell volume, buyer/seller counts, unique wallets)
  • PumpSwap pair data (3z1zRHhzBH2rRKcQ8PJZUutKpg5ziB34D8an1GUp3VcD)

Limitations

  • Only 2 hourly OHLC candles available — insufficient for robust technical analysis
  • No holder count, growth, or distribution data available (endpoints retired)
  • No sniper/early buyer wallet data available
  • Update authority status unknown — mint and freeze authority cannot be confirmed
  • No verified contract — smart contract risk cannot be assessed
  • Price change data shows 0% for 6h and 24h windows despite clear price movement, suggesting possible data feed anomaly
  • FDV and liquidity figures may not reflect real-time state

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does NOT constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments, especially meme tokens, carry extreme risk including total loss of capital. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decision.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the short-term price outlook for nogay (NOGAY)?

The token is under severe sell pressure with 77.6% of 24h volume being sells and a -12.6% price decline in 24h. The most recent candle (hour [1]) shows a recovery from the extreme low of candle [2], but the close at $0.000199 is well below the candle [2] high of $0.000474, suggesting the spike was a pump-and-dump event. Short-term direction is bearish with high probability of continued decline toward the candle [2] low range. Short-term outlook is bearish (1–24 hours), with a target range of $0.000025 to $0.000213.

Is NOGAY a safe investment on Solana?

Overall risk is rated very high with a risk score of 9.1/100. This token is suitable ONLY for highly experienced, risk-tolerant speculators who fully understand they may lose 100% of their investment. It is NOT suitable for retail investors, long-term holders, or anyone investing more than they can afford to lose entirely. The combination of extreme volatility, shallow liquidity, dominant sell pressure, and pump-and-dump price action makes this one of the highest-risk token profiles possible.

What does sniper activity look like for NOGAY?

Snipers hold roughly 0.00% of supply with PnL state "unknown" and sell-through rate "unknown". Profit-taking risk: low.

What are the key risks of holding NOGAY?

Extreme price volatility — 19x intra-hour range observed in available data • Very shallow liquidity ($48.72K) creating high slippage and exit risk • Dominant sell pressure: 77.6% of 24h volume is sells, 1,386 sellers vs. 518 buyers

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