GROGU

Grogu Price Prediction 2026

GROGU
Solana•
AI Analysis
Analysis as of May 4, 2026

4N9LFiNc6vvC9d7yCwYn7Gb9y6ExGeH7jTdQViN7e2Ke

$0.051976

FDV $1,974

LiveContract:4N9LFiNc6vvC9d7yCwYn7Gb9y6ExGeH7jTdQViN7e2KeChain:SolanaHolders:140Market cap:$1,974

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Ask Unhosted AI about GROGU

What's Twitter saying?

Sentiment, KOL mentions, top tweets

Whale activity

Who is accumulating or distributing

What are the risks?

Red flags, security, concentration

Should I buy?

Bull case, bear case, entry / exit

Report snapshotas of May 4, 04:19 PM
FDV

$70,139

Liquidity

$31,946

Holders

639

Snipers

36

Risk

Very High

AI Executive Summary

GROGU (Grogu) is a community-oriented meme coin on Solana with a total supply of ~1B tokens, currently trading at $0.0000701 with a fully diluted valuation of ~$70–74K. The token launched very recently (most holders joined within the last 7 days) and is experiencing extreme sell pressure (83.1% sell volume vs 16.9% buy volume) alongside a -13.4% 24h price decline. Holder count has exploded from 11 to 639 in roughly one week, but concentration is dangerously high — the top holder alone controls 46.68% of supply and the top 10 collectively hold 72.14%. Liquidity is thin at $31.95K, and sniper activity shows most early buyers are already in profit, raising dump risk.

Risk: Very High
Sentiment: Bearish
Explosive holder growth: from 11 holders on Apr 26 to 639 today (~98% growth in 7 days)
Extreme top-holder concentration: single wallet holds 46.68% of supply
Heavy sell pressure: 83.1% of 24h volume is sells ($234K vs $48K buys)
Very thin liquidity ($31.95K) relative to FDV ($73.66K), creating high slippage risk
Most snipers (20 detected) are in profit, elevating near-term dump risk

Price Prediction

bearish

Short term

bearish
24–72 hours

The token is under severe sell pressure with 83.1% of 24h volume being sells and a -13.4% 24h decline. The most recent hourly candle (16:00 UTC) shows a wide-range bar from $0.0000468 to $0.0000816, closing at $0.0000701 — still well below the session high. With thin liquidity ($31.95K) and most snipers in profit, further downside is the path of least resistance in the near term.

Target low$0.000032
Target high$0.000082
Support: $0.0000468 (hourly candle low, 16:00 UTC), $0.0000330 (hourly candle low, 15:00 UTC)
Resistance: $0.0000816 (hourly candle high, 16:00 UTC), $0.0000646 (prior hourly close, 15:00 UTC)

Medium term

neutral
1–4 weeks

Medium-term outlook depends entirely on whether the community can sustain organic buying interest and whether the dominant 46.68% holder distributes or holds. If sell pressure abates and new buyers continue entering (as the holder growth trend suggests), a stabilization and recovery is possible. However, without utility or a catalyst, meme coins at this stage typically fade.

Catalysts
  • Continued viral/social media momentum driving new holder acquisition
  • Large whale (46.68%) choosing to hold rather than dump
  • Broader Solana meme coin market rally
  • Listing on a mid-tier CEX or aggregator spotlight

Bullish factors

  • Rapid holder growth (+98% in 7 days, +85% in 24h) signals viral momentum
  • 5m price change of +14.28% shows short bursts of buying interest
  • Meme coin narrative (Grogu/Baby Yoda) has broad cultural recognition
  • Social links (Telegram, Twitter, website) suggest active community building

Bearish factors

  • 83.1% sell pressure in 24h ($234K sells vs $48K buys)
  • -13.4% price decline in 24h
  • Top holder controls 46.68% of supply — single point of failure
  • Top 10 holders control 72.14% of supply
  • Thin liquidity ($31.95K) amplifies volatility and slippage
  • 20 snipers mostly in profit, creating latent sell pressure
  • Unverified contract and non-renounced update authority
Confidence: low. Only 2 hourly OHLC candles are available, making technical analysis extremely limited. The token is days old, sniper data lacks USD entry amounts, and the dominant holder's intentions are unknown. Price prediction confidence is therefore low.

Deep Analysis

Only 2 hourly candles are available. Candle [2] (15:00 UTC): O=$0.0000363, H=$0.0000646, L=$0.0000330, C=$0.0000646 — a strong bullish candle closing at the high, suggesting a momentum surge. Candle [1] (16:00 UTC): O=$0.0000620, H=$0.0000816, L=$0.0000468, C=$0.0000701 — opened above prior close, made a new high at $0.0000816, but closed well below the high, forming a bearish upper-wick / shooting-star-like pattern. This reversal candle after a strong up-move is a warning sign of fading momentum.

Trend

Short-term
uptrend
Medium-term
sideways

Momentum

Status
overbought

Volume

Trenddecreasing
Buy 17%Sell 83%

The two available candles show a sharp intraday rally followed by a partial reversal. The short-term micro-trend is technically up from the $0.0000330 low, but the shooting-star pattern on the most recent candle and the -13.4% 24h change suggest the medium-term trend is sideways-to-down. Insufficient historical candle data exists to determine a reliable medium-term trend.

Key Price Levels

Support
Immediate$0.0000468 (16:00 UTC hourly low)
Major$0.0000330 (15:00 UTC hourly low — launch-area support)
Resistance
Immediate$0.0000816 (16:00 UTC hourly high)
Major$0.0000816 (session high — only 2 candles available, this is the all-time high in the dataset)

With only 2 hourly candles, key levels are derived from the available OHLC data. The $0.0000330–$0.0000468 zone represents the base support from the initial surge. The $0.0000816 high is the only meaningful resistance. A break below $0.0000468 would target the $0.0000330 level.

Notable patterns

  • Shooting star / bearish upper wick on the most recent (16:00 UTC) candle — price rejected at $0.0000816 and closed at $0.0000701
  • Strong bullish engulfing-style candle at 15:00 UTC (closed at the high)
  • Volume climax at 15:00 UTC ($239K) followed by sharp volume collapse at 16:00 UTC ($17K) — blow-off top signal
  • Higher high established ($0.0000816 vs $0.0000646) but failed to hold — potential false breakout

Total holders639
24h Δ+85
7d Δ+98
30d Δ+98
Accelerating Growth
Yes

Correlation with price

Holder growth has been explosive in the last 24–48 hours, coinciding with the price surge visible in the OHLC data. The token had only 11 holders from Apr 4–26 (dormant phase), then began growing: 15 by Apr 28, 125 by May 3, and 639 by May 4. The +513 holder gain in the last hour alone (+80%) suggests a viral moment or coordinated promotion drove a sudden influx. However, this rapid holder growth is occurring alongside heavy sell pressure (-13.4% price), suggesting new buyers are absorbing sells from early holders and snipers.

Holder growth is dramatically accelerating. The token was dormant with 11 holders for ~3 weeks (Apr 4–26), then began a steep growth curve: +13 holders Apr 29, +55 on May 1, +24 on May 3, and an extraordinary +513 in the last hour alone. The 30d growth of 98% and 7d growth of 98% reflect the near-zero baseline. The acceleration is real but must be contextualized: 632 of 639 holders acquired via swap, suggesting organic market buying rather than airdrops. The concern is whether these new holders are buying into a distribution event by early snipers.

Top 10 hold72.14%
Top 100 hold100.00%
Sentiment
Mixed

Notable holders

8bmQq38mAz3SnXE8mmt4FmACtXcaAGVito8mRFFstvBY

Project treasury or team wallet — holds 46.68% of total supply (466.76M tokens). This extreme concentration in a single wallet is the single largest risk factor for the token. Classification as team/treasury is inferred from the disproportionate size; no on-chain label available.

46.68%

22U1GiXqAvz8zURhg6WDpnwtg7t78Kv15gMdiKEufcti

Individual whale — holds 3.92% of supply. Likely an early buyer or insider given the relatively large position.

3.92%

A4ege1RE19ZjRsHqCqDRTdRoZynv9YUH6aG4bapUatCJ

Individual whale — holds 3.20% of supply.

3.20%

BcpiXQaenCcupcs4n9RbTBGew2LkskWqJ383q6HcGiAb

Individual whale — holds 3.05% of supply.

3.05%

3oe7aYLUw2Pkbm7QMAhAjn5WbzaoG9tigkrX1mAecr1P

Individual whale — holds 3.00% of supply.

3.00%

Token distribution is extremely concentrated. The top 10 holders control 72.14% of supply, and the top 100 control 100% — meaning all 639 holders are within the top 100 by definition (639 total holders). The dominant wallet (8bmQq38mAz3SnXE8mmt4FmACtXcaAGVito8mRFFstvBY) alone holds 46.68%, which is a critical single point of failure. If this wallet sells even a fraction of its holdings, it would devastate the price given the $31.95K liquidity pool. Holders 2–10 each hold 1.94%–3.92%, representing a cluster of individual whales. The distribution is classified as 'very_concentrated' and poses extreme rug/dump risk.

Liquidity$31,950
Depth
Shallow
Slippage risk
high

Volume (24h)

Buy$47,680
Sell$234,070
Net flow
outflow

Traders (24h)

Unique buyers414
Unique sellers1,663

Market health is poor. Total liquidity of $31.95K is extremely thin relative to the $73.66K FDV and the $281.75K total 24h volume. The liquidity-to-volume ratio is approximately 11%, meaning the pool is being turned over multiple times per day — a sign of high volatility and slippage risk. The net flow is strongly negative: $234K in sells vs $48K in buys (83.1% sell pressure). Unique sellers (1,663) outnumber unique buyers (414) by 4:1. The pair trades on PumpSwap (3ctV6RC9zjrdTLrtpkDrCGdoWQybdj9iZxEhQYhbpd4r), which is a newer DEX with potentially less aggregator routing. Any large sell order against $31.95K liquidity will cause severe price impact. The 5m price change of +14.28% despite overall bearish 24h conditions suggests extreme short-term volatility.

Supply & Valuation

Total supply999,999,995.45 GROGU
FDV$70,139–$73,660

Authorities

Mint authority
Active
Freeze authority
Active

Total supply is approximately 1 billion GROGU tokens (999,999,995.45). The update authority is TSLvdd1pWpHVjahSpsvCXUbgwsL3JAcvokwaKt1eokM — this is NOT the system program (111...111) or a known burn address, meaning the metadata is potentially mutable by this authority. However, the 'Mutable: false' flag in the metadata suggests the token metadata itself has been locked, which is a positive sign. Mint and freeze authority status are not explicitly provided in the data — classified as 'unknown'. The contract is unverified ('Verified contract: false'), which is common for meme coins but adds risk. The token is not flagged as spam. FDV of ~$70–74K is very low, meaning even small capital inflows can move the price significantly — a double-edged sword.

Volatility
high

Price swung from $0.0000330 to $0.0000816 within 2 hours (147% range), then partially reversed. The 5m change of +14.28% and 24h change of -13.4% confirm extreme intraday volatility. Thin liquidity amplifies every trade.

Liquidity
high

Total liquidity is only $31.95K on PumpSwap. A single whale sell of even 1% of the dominant holder's position (~$327K worth at current price) would completely drain the pool and crash the price to near zero.

Concentration
high

Top 10 holders control 72.14% of supply. The single largest holder controls 46.68% alone. Top 100 holders = 100% of all holders (only 639 total). This is extreme concentration by any standard.

SniperDump
high

20 snipers detected in the first 1,000 blocks. 17 of 20 have already realized profits (PnL ranging from 3.1% to 205.4%). The remaining 3 with $0 realized PnL still hold positions and represent latent sell pressure. The overall sniper cohort is mostly in profit and actively distributing.

Authority
medium

Update authority (TSLvdd1pWpHVjahSpsvCXUbgwsL3JAcvokwaKt1eokM) is not renounced but metadata is flagged as 'Mutable: false', partially mitigating metadata manipulation risk. Mint and freeze authority status are unknown. Contract is unverified.

Key risks

  • Single wallet holds 46.68% of supply — catastrophic dump risk if sold
  • 83.1% sell pressure with only $31.95K liquidity — price highly vulnerable
  • 20 snipers mostly in profit and actively selling into retail buyers
  • Token is only days old with no proven track record or utility
  • Unverified contract and unknown mint/freeze authority status
  • Top 100 holders = 100% of supply (only 639 holders total) — extremely thin holder base

Mitigating factors

  • Metadata flagged as 'Mutable: false' — reduces metadata manipulation risk
  • Rapid holder growth (+98% in 7 days) shows genuine community interest
  • Social presence (Telegram, Twitter, website) suggests active team
  • Not flagged as spam by Moralis
  • Meme coin narrative (Grogu/Baby Yoda) has broad cultural appeal
  • 632/639 holders acquired via swap — organic buying rather than airdrop farming
Suitable for: Suitable ONLY for highly risk-tolerant, experienced meme coin traders who can afford to lose 100% of their investment. Not suitable for conservative investors, long-term holders, or anyone investing more than a very small speculative allocation. This token exhibits nearly every high-risk characteristic: extreme concentration, thin liquidity, heavy sell pressure, sniper activity, and no verified utility.

No analysis available for this section yet — refresh in a moment.

Bull case (low)

No analysis available for this section yet — refresh in a moment.

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Base case

No analysis available for this section yet — refresh in a moment.

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Bear case (low)

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GeneratedMay 4, 04:19 PM
Data freshnessPrice and trading data current as of 2026-05-04T16:xx UTC. Holder data reflects snapshot at time of analysis. OHLC data covers only the 2 most recent hourly candles.
Model confidence
low

Data sources

  • Moralis on-chain token metadata API
  • PumpSwap DEX pair data (pair: 3ctV6RC9zjrdTLrtpkDrCGdoWQybdj9iZxEhQYhbpd4r)
  • Hourly OHLC price data (2 candles)
  • 24h trading analytics (buy/sell volume, unique wallets)
  • Historical holder time series (30 days daily)
  • Top 20 holder distribution data
  • Sniper analysis (first 1,000 blocks, 20 snipers)

Limitations

  • Only 2 hourly OHLC candles available — technical analysis is severely limited
  • Sniper USD entry amounts are unknown — exact sniper concentration % cannot be precisely calculated
  • Mint and freeze authority status not explicitly provided in metadata
  • Top holder classification (team/treasury vs. individual) is inferred, not confirmed on-chain
  • No historical price data beyond 2 hours available for trend analysis
  • Holder growth data for the most recent 24h shows +541 but hourly data shows +513 in 1h alone — data may reflect a single viral event rather than sustained growth

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does NOT constitute financial advice. Meme coins are extremely high-risk assets. Past performance and on-chain metrics do not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose completely.

Token Info

ChainSolana
Contract
Total Supply999,999,995.45 GROGU

Key Risks

•Single wallet holds 46.68% of supply — catastrophic dump risk if sold
•83.1% sell pressure with only $31.95K liquidity — price highly vulnerable
•20 snipers mostly in profit and actively selling into retail buyers
•Token is only days old with no proven track record or utility

Smart Money & Sniper Analysis

medium confidence
High risk

Of the 20 detected snipers, the vast majority are in profit — realized PnL percentages range from 3.1% to 205.4%, with 15 out of 20 showing positive realized returns above 24%. The top sniper by volume (HpBQZoprdtWC9MFZoLEKSi1PvSFhGFYDJt9ryxooUHCT) sold $3,151 at +71.2% profit. E45YLW6LV2GdvPu4HgpBMZF4veGmUqbK6hs2W3ykx2s1 sold $1,742 at +97% profit. Most snipers have already exited or are actively distributing, contributing to the 83.1% sell pressure. The 3 snipers with $0 realized PnL may still be holding, representing latent sell pressure.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Sniper details

Sniper concentration2.00%
PnL stateMostly In Profit
Sell-through rateHigh
Profit-taking risk
high

20 snipers detected in first 1,000 blocks. Exact USD sniped amounts are unknown, but sell-through is evident: 17 of 20 snipers have recorded realized sales ranging from $3 to $3,151. Only 3 snipers (BJfyCguvpddSkvSroqaSNCKxXq4eejENngLYPzJkeNkr, CHJLsax4yLvGMxZ5BMdKdxz8ULeCSbCtCtLdWGc2vFGh, 3KcPSJ8ouE7H1feoWHmhDwXhLnXhpxP6R6713uytFmBM) show $0 realized sales.

Early buyers (snipers) are predominantly in profit and actively selling. Sentiment among this cohort is distributive rather than accumulative. The high sell-through rate across 17/20 snipers confirms early participants are exiting into retail buying interest.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the price prediction for Grogu (GROGU)?

The token is under severe sell pressure with 83.1% of 24h volume being sells and a -13.4% 24h decline. The most recent hourly candle (16:00 UTC) shows a wide-range bar from $0.0000468 to $0.0000816, closing at $0.0000701 — still well below the session high. With thin liquidity ($31.95K) and most snipers in profit, further downside is the path of least resistance in the near term. Short-term outlook is bearish (24–72 hours), with a target range of $0.000032 to $0.000082.

Is GROGU a safe investment on Solana?

Overall risk is rated very_high with a risk score of 9.1/100. Suitable ONLY for highly risk-tolerant, experienced meme coin traders who can afford to lose 100% of their investment. Not suitable for conservative investors, long-term holders, or anyone investing more than a very small speculative allocation. This token exhibits nearly every high-risk characteristic: extreme concentration, thin liquidity, heavy sell pressure, sniper activity, and no verified utility.

How are GROGU holders trending?

Grogu currently has 639 holders and is growing (24h: 85, 7d: 98, 30d: 98). Holder growth is dramatically accelerating. The token was dormant with 11 holders for ~3 weeks (Apr 4–26), then began a steep growth curve: +13 holders Apr 29, +55 on May 1, +24 on May 3, and an extraordinary +513 in the last hour alone. The 30d growth of 98% and 7d growth of 98% reflect the near-zero baseline. The acceleration is real but must be contextualized: 632 of 639 holders acquired via swap, suggesting organic market buying rather than airdrops. The concern is whether these new holders are buying into a distribution event by early snipers.

What does sniper activity look like for GROGU?

Snipers hold roughly 2.00% of supply with PnL state "mostly_in_profit" and sell-through rate "high". Profit-taking risk: high.

What are the key risks of holding GROGU?

Single wallet holds 46.68% of supply — catastrophic dump risk if sold • 83.1% sell pressure with only $31.95K liquidity — price highly vulnerable • 20 snipers mostly in profit and actively selling into retail buyers

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