PENALTY

degenfc.fun Price Prediction 2026

PENALTY
Solana•
AI Analysis
Analysis as of Jul 2, 2026

2GA23vuHaY7eTAQW3itMSoUmcWjZuazaqh6tUtiBgoa1

$0.052203

-0.26%

FDV $2,201

LiveContract:2GA23vuHaY7eTAQW3itMSoUmcWjZuazaqh6tUtiBgoa1Chain:SolanaHolders:342Market cap:$2,201

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Ask Unhosted AI about PENALTY

What's Twitter saying?

Sentiment, KOL mentions, top tweets

Whale activity

Who is accumulating or distributing

What are the risks?

Red flags, security, concentration

Should I buy?

Bull case, bear case, entry / exit

Report snapshotas of Jul 2, 12:16 AM
FDV

$286,847

Liquidity

$53,275

Holders

580

Snipers

0

Risk

Very High

AI Executive Summary

PENALTY (degenfc.fun) is a newly viral Solana memecoin on PumpSwap with mint address 2GA23vuHaY7eTAQW3itMSoUmcWjZuazaqh6tUtiBgoa1. The token sat dormant at just 11 holders for nearly a month (June 2–30, 2026) before exploding to 580 holders within ~24 hours on July 1–2, 2026. Price surged +74.4% in 24h to $0.000287, but sell pressure dominates (55.1% sell vs 44.9% buy), liquidity is extremely shallow at $53.27K, and the token is flagged as possible spam with an unverified contract. Top holder data is unavailable, making concentration risk impossible to assess directly.

Risk: Very High
Sentiment: Bearish
Explosive holder growth from 11 to 580 in under 24 hours (+98%)
74.4% price surge in 24h on PumpSwap
Extremely shallow liquidity ($53.27K) relative to $286.85K FDV
Dormant for ~30 days before sudden viral activity — classic pump pattern
Flagged as possible spam; unverified contract; update authority unknown

Price Prediction

bearish

Short term

bearish
1–24 hours

The token just posted a massive +74.4% candle but sell pressure is dominant (55.1% sell volume, 2,896 sells vs 846 buys). The most recent 5-minute change is already -3.09%, suggesting the pump is losing momentum. With only $53.27K in liquidity, any moderate sell order will cause severe slippage. Short-term direction leans bearish as early buyers take profits.

Target low$0.000094
Target high$0.000397
Support: $0.000200 (candle [1] open and candle [2] close), $0.000094 (candle [2] low — session floor)
Resistance: $0.000309 (candle [1] high), $0.000397 (candle [2] high — session peak)

Medium term

bearish
3–14 days

Without sustained buying interest, meaningful utility, or deeper liquidity, the token is likely to retrace sharply. The 30-day dormancy followed by a single-day pump is a classic pump-and-dump pattern. Unless new catalysts emerge (exchange listing, viral social media), price is expected to drift back toward pre-pump levels near $0.000094 or lower.

Catalysts
  • Viral social media momentum sustaining new buyer inflow
  • Listing on a higher-liquidity DEX or CEX
  • Liquidity pool deepening by project team
  • Broader Solana memecoin market rally

Bullish factors

  • 74.4% price surge in 24h demonstrates strong short-term momentum
  • Holder count grew from 11 to 580 (+98%) in under 24 hours
  • 846 unique buy transactions indicate genuine retail interest
  • PumpSwap listing provides accessible entry for Solana retail traders

Bearish factors

  • Sell volume ($303.44K) exceeds buy volume ($247.61K) — net outflow
  • 2,896 sells vs 846 buys — sellers outnumber buyers 3.4:1 by transaction count
  • Liquidity is extremely shallow at $53.27K — high slippage risk
  • Token was dormant for ~30 days before pump — suspicious activation pattern
  • Flagged as possible spam; unverified contract
  • No top holder data available — concentration risk unknown
  • 5-minute price already declining -3.09% from recent high
Confidence: low. Only 2 hourly OHLC candles are available, top holder data is missing, sniper data is unavailable, and the token has been active for less than 24 hours. The extremely limited price history and missing on-chain distribution data make any price prediction highly speculative.

PENALTY call history

Full track record →
Jul 2bearish
24h-98.8%
7d-99.1%
30d-99.2%

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Deep Analysis

Only 2 hourly candles are available. Candle [2] (23:00 UTC Jul 1): O=$0.0000941, H=$0.000397, L=$0.0000941, C=$0.000201 — a massive bullish candle with a very long upper wick, indicating strong buying followed by significant profit-taking. The close at $0.000201 is roughly halfway between the open and high, suggesting sellers absorbed much of the move. Candle [1] (00:00 UTC Jul 2): O=$0.000201, H=$0.000309, L=$0.000200, C=$0.000287 — a continuation candle opening near the prior close, pushing to a new local high of $0.000309 but closing below it, with a tight low near the open. Volume collapsed from 534,681 in candle [2] to 14,067 in candle [1], signaling exhaustion.

Trend

Short-term
uptrend
Medium-term
sideways

Momentum

Status
overbought

Volume

Trenddecreasing
Buy 45%Sell 55%

Short-term trend is technically up given the 24h price surge, but the long upper wick on candle [2] and volume collapse on candle [1] suggest the uptrend is fragile. Medium-term is effectively sideways/unknown given only 2 candles of history and 30 days of dormancy prior.

Key Price Levels

Support
Immediate$0.000200 (candle [1] low and candle [2] close — double confluence)
Major$0.000094 (candle [2] absolute low — session floor)
Resistance
Immediate$0.000309 (candle [1] high)
Major$0.000397 (candle [2] all-time high)

The $0.000200 level is the most critical near-term support, having served as both the open of candle [1] and the close of candle [2]. A break below this level opens the path to the session low of $0.000094. On the upside, $0.000309 is immediate resistance (candle [1] high), with $0.000397 as the session peak and major resistance.

Notable patterns

  • Long upper wick on candle [2] — bearish rejection / profit-taking signal
  • Volume exhaustion: 97.4% volume collapse from candle [2] to candle [1]
  • Pump-and-partial-retrace structure: candle [2] high $0.000397 → close $0.000201 (49% retrace from high)
  • Candle [1] shows narrowing range relative to candle [2] — momentum compression
  • Classic pump candle followed by lower-volume continuation — potential distribution phase

Total holders580
24h Δ+98
7d Δ+98
30d Δ+98
Accelerating Growth
Yes

Correlation with price

Holder growth is tightly correlated with the price pump — both exploded simultaneously on July 1–2, 2026. The token had exactly 11 holders for the entire period June 2–30 (28 days of zero growth), then gained 499 holders on July 1 alone (+98%), coinciding with the price surge. This suggests the holder growth is driven by the price action attracting retail FOMO buyers, not organic community building.

Holder growth is entirely concentrated in a single 24-hour window. From June 2 to June 30 (28 days), the token had a flat 11 holders with zero net change daily. On July 1, 499 new holders joined (+98%), and by the analysis timestamp the count reached 580. The 7d and 30d growth figures are identical to the 24h figure (98%), confirming all growth occurred in the last day. Acquisition method is predominantly swap (566 of 580 holders), consistent with retail buying on PumpSwap. The distribution data (whales/sharks/dolphins/fish/octopus all = 0) and top holder data being unavailable are significant data gaps that prevent full concentration analysis.

Top 10 hold0.00%
Top 100 hold0.00%
Sentiment
Mixed

Notable holders

Data unavailable

Top holder data not provided by data source

0.00%

Top holder data is explicitly unavailable in the provided dataset. The supply concentration metrics show top10=0% and top100=0%, which is almost certainly a data artifact or reporting error rather than a genuine reflection of distribution — a token with 580 holders cannot have 0% concentration in the top 10 or top 100. This data gap is a significant limitation. Given the 30-day dormancy with only 11 holders, it is highly probable that those original 11 wallets hold a disproportionate share of supply. The distribution health is assessed as very_concentrated based on the token's history and the suspicious dormancy pattern, but this cannot be confirmed numerically from the available data.

Liquidity$53,270
Depth
Shallow
Slippage risk
high

Volume (24h)

Buy$247,610
Sell$303,440
Net flow
outflow

Traders (24h)

Unique buyers490
Unique sellers763

Liquidity is critically shallow at $53.27K against a $286.85K FDV — a liquidity-to-FDV ratio of only ~18.6%. This means any moderately sized sell order will cause severe price impact. The 24h sell volume ($303.44K) is 5.7x the total liquidity pool, confirming extreme slippage risk. Net flow is negative (outflow): sell volume exceeds buy volume by $55.83K. Unique sellers (763) outnumber unique buyers (490) by 55.7%, and sell transactions (2,896) outnumber buy transactions (846) by 3.4:1. The market is in active distribution. The pair trades on PumpSwap (A2jj6G4y49HS3Dh2wpvjkH7VeVvRaYvRKyCwy197smmz), a relatively new DEX with limited liquidity infrastructure compared to Raydium or Orca.

Supply & Valuation

Total supply1,000,000,000
FDV$286,846.89

Authorities

Mint authority
Active
Freeze authority
Active

Total supply is 1 billion tokens (standard memecoin supply). FDV is $286,846.89 at current price of $0.000287. The update authority is listed as 'unknown' in the metadata, and the contract is unverified. Mutable is set to false, which is a mild positive indicator (metadata cannot be changed), but mint and freeze authority status cannot be confirmed from the available data. The token is flagged as 'possible spam' by the data provider, which is a significant red flag. No description is provided. Social links (Twitter, website, Moralis) exist but cannot be verified here. The unknown authority status combined with the spam flag and unverified contract means rug risk from authorities cannot be assessed and should be treated as elevated by default.

Volatility
high

Price surged +74.4% in 24h with a candle range from $0.000094 to $0.000397 — a 4.2x intraday range. Only 2 hourly candles of price history exist. Extreme volatility is expected to continue in both directions.

Liquidity
high

Total liquidity is only $53.27K. The 24h sell volume alone ($303.44K) is 5.7x the liquidity pool. Any significant sell order will cause catastrophic slippage. Exit risk is very high for any position of meaningful size.

Concentration
high

Top holder data is unavailable, but the token had only 11 holders for 28 consecutive days before the pump. Those 11 original wallets almost certainly hold a large, undisclosed portion of supply. The reported top10=0% concentration figure appears to be a data error.

SniperDump
high

No sniper data is available. However, the 30-day dormancy with 11 holders followed by a coordinated pump is a textbook sniper/insider accumulation pattern. The dominant sell pressure (2,896 sells vs 846 buys) suggests early holders are actively dumping into retail demand.

Authority
high

Mint and freeze authority status are unknown. The contract is unverified. The token is flagged as possible spam. Update authority is listed as unknown. These combined factors represent significant rug-pull and freeze risk that cannot be ruled out.

Key risks

  • Token flagged as possible spam by data provider
  • Unverified contract with unknown mint/freeze authority status
  • Only 11 holders for 28 days before pump — strong insider/coordinated pump signal
  • Sell transactions outnumber buy transactions 3.4:1 (2,896 vs 846)
  • Liquidity ($53.27K) is critically insufficient relative to trading volume ($551K+ in 24h)
  • Top holder data unavailable — true concentration risk cannot be assessed
  • No token description or verified utility — pure speculative memecoin
  • 30-day dormancy followed by single-day explosion is a classic pump-and-dump pattern
  • 5-minute price already declining -3.09% from recent high

Mitigating factors

  • Metadata is set to immutable (mutable=false), preventing metadata rug
  • Token is live on PumpSwap with active trading and 1,055 unique wallets in 24h
  • Genuine retail interest evidenced by 490 unique buyers in 24h
  • Social links (Twitter, website) exist, suggesting some level of project presence
  • Price has held above the $0.000200 support level in the most recent candle
Suitable for: This token is suitable ONLY for highly experienced, risk-tolerant speculators who fully understand they may lose 100% of their investment. It is entirely unsuitable for conservative investors, long-term holders, or anyone investing more than they can afford to lose completely. Given the spam flag, unknown authorities, shallow liquidity, and pump-and-dump pattern signals, extreme caution is warranted.

PENALTY is a high-risk, short-lived speculative memecoin that exhibits multiple classic pump-and-dump characteristics: 28 days of dormancy with 11 holders, a single-day explosion to 580 holders and +74.4% price gain, dominant sell pressure, and critically shallow liquidity. There is no identifiable utility, verified contract, or known team. The investment thesis is purely momentum-based and carries extreme downside risk.

Bull case (low)

Viral momentum continues: the token gains traction on Crypto Twitter/social media, new retail buyers continue to enter, liquidity deepens, and the price breaks above the $0.000397 session high toward a new all-time high. Early community formation around the degenfc.fun brand creates a self-sustaining speculative narrative.

  • Sustained viral social media momentum beyond the initial pump
  • Liquidity pool deepening by project team or LPs
  • Broader Solana memecoin market in risk-on mode
  • Influencer or KOL promotion driving new buyer inflow

Base case

The token experiences a partial retrace from the pump high, stabilizing somewhere between $0.000150–$0.000200 with reduced trading volume. It persists as a low-liquidity speculative token with a small community of 500–800 holders, trading sideways with occasional volatility spikes driven by social media activity.

  • Some portion of the 490 unique buyers hold their positions rather than selling immediately
  • The project team (if any) adds modest liquidity to prevent complete collapse
  • No major negative catalyst (rug pull, freeze) occurs in the near term
  • Broader Solana memecoin market remains neutral

Bear case (high)

The pump collapses: early holders (the original 11 wallets) complete their distribution, sell pressure overwhelms the shallow $53.27K liquidity pool, price crashes back to pre-pump levels near $0.000094 or lower, and the token returns to dormancy or is abandoned entirely.

  • Dominant sell pressure already evident (55.1% sell, 3.4:1 sell/buy transaction ratio)
  • Critically shallow liquidity unable to absorb continued selling
  • No utility, no verified contract, no known team to sustain community
  • Spam flag and unverified contract may deter new buyers
  • Classic 30-day dormancy + single-day pump pattern historically resolves to the downside

GeneratedJul 2, 12:16 AM
Data freshnessPrice and trading data current as of analysis time. OHLC data covers only 2 hourly candles (Jul 1 23:00 UTC and Jul 2 00:00 UTC). Historical holder data covers June 2 – July 1, 2026 (30 days daily). Sniper data unavailable.
Model confidence
low

Data sources

  • Solana on-chain metadata (mint, supply, authority fields)
  • PumpSwap DEX trading data (pair A2jj6G4y49HS3Dh2wpvjkH7VeVvRaYvRKyCwy197smmz)
  • Hourly OHLC price candles (2 candles available)
  • 24h trading analytics (volume, buys/sells, unique wallets)
  • Historical holder time series (30 days daily)
  • Holder acquisition and distribution metrics
  • Sniper analysis endpoint (returned no data)

Limitations

  • Only 2 hourly OHLC candles available — insufficient for robust technical analysis
  • Top holder data (top 20) is unavailable — whale concentration cannot be quantified
  • Sniper analysis returned no data — early buyer PnL and concentration unknown
  • Mint and freeze authority status are unknown — rug risk cannot be fully assessed
  • Supply concentration metrics (top10=0%, top100=0%) appear to be data errors, not genuine figures
  • Token has been active for less than 24 hours in its current pump phase — all metrics are extremely early-stage
  • Token flagged as possible spam — data provider reliability for this token may be reduced
  • No verified contract or audit available

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does NOT constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments, especially newly launched memecoins, carry extreme risk including total loss of capital. The PENALTY token exhibits multiple high-risk characteristics. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Token Info

ChainSolana
Contract
Total Supply1,000,000,000

Key Risks

•Token flagged as possible spam by data provider
•Unverified contract with unknown mint/freeze authority status
•Only 11 holders for 28 days before pump — strong insider/coordinated pump signal
•Sell transactions outnumber buy transactions 3.4:1 (2,896 vs 846)

Smart Money & Sniper Analysis

low confidence
High risk

No sniper data is available for this token. Smart money signals cannot be derived from sniper analysis. However, the trading pattern itself is informative: 2,896 sell transactions vs 846 buy transactions in 24h, with sell volume ($303.44K) exceeding buy volume ($247.61K), suggests early participants are actively distributing. The 30-day dormancy followed by a sudden pump is consistent with coordinated accumulation by a small group (11 holders pre-pump) followed by a retail-facing pump.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Sniper details

Sniper concentration0.00%
PnL stateUnknown
Sell-through rateUnknown
Profit-taking risk
high

No sniper data available — endpoint returned no results.

The 11 wallets that held the token during the 30-day dormancy period (June 2–30) are the likely early buyers. Their sentiment appears to be distributing — the dominant sell pressure and high sell transaction count suggest these early holders are offloading into retail demand generated by the pump.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the price prediction for degenfc.fun (PENALTY)?

The token just posted a massive +74.4% candle but sell pressure is dominant (55.1% sell volume, 2,896 sells vs 846 buys). The most recent 5-minute change is already -3.09%, suggesting the pump is losing momentum. With only $53.27K in liquidity, any moderate sell order will cause severe slippage. Short-term direction leans bearish as early buyers take profits. Short-term outlook is bearish (1–24 hours), with a target range of $0.000094 to $0.000397.

Is PENALTY a safe investment on Solana?

Overall risk is rated very_high with a risk score of 9.1/100. This token is suitable ONLY for highly experienced, risk-tolerant speculators who fully understand they may lose 100% of their investment. It is entirely unsuitable for conservative investors, long-term holders, or anyone investing more than they can afford to lose completely. Given the spam flag, unknown authorities, shallow liquidity, and pump-and-dump pattern signals, extreme caution is warranted.

How are PENALTY holders trending?

degenfc.fun currently has 580 holders and is growing (24h: 98, 7d: 98, 30d: 98). Holder growth is entirely concentrated in a single 24-hour window. From June 2 to June 30 (28 days), the token had a flat 11 holders with zero net change daily. On July 1, 499 new holders joined (+98%), and by the analysis timestamp the count reached 580. The 7d and 30d growth figures are identical to the 24h figure (98%), confirming all growth occurred in the last day. Acquisition method is predominantly swap (566 of 580 holders), consistent with retail buying on PumpSwap. The distribution data (whales/sharks/dolphins/fish/octopus all = 0) and top holder data being unavailable are significant data gaps that prevent full concentration analysis.

What does sniper activity look like for PENALTY?

Snipers hold roughly 0.00% of supply with PnL state "unknown" and sell-through rate "unknown". Profit-taking risk: high.

What are the key risks of holding PENALTY?

Token flagged as possible spam by data provider • Unverified contract with unknown mint/freeze authority status • Only 11 holders for 28 days before pump — strong insider/coordinated pump signal

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