swETH

swETH Price Today & AI Analysis

swETH
Ethereum·AI Analysis
Analysis as of Sep 4, 2026

$2,851.83

+5.33%24h
LiveContract:0xf951e335afb289353dc249e82926178eac7ded78Chain:EthereumHolders:15.2KMarket cap:$32.04MLiquidity:$158.05K

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Red flags, security, concentration

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Bull case, bear case, entry / exit

Movement since reportreport from Sep 4, 2026, 09:16 AM UTC
Market Cap

$32.04M

24h Volume

$15.62K

Liquidity

$158.05K

FDV

—

Holders

15.2K

24HLoading trading activity…

Holder Insights

Live

Total holders

—

AI Executive Summary

swETH is a liquid staking token on Ethereum, launched in April 2023 (approximately 40.8 months ago) and associated with the Swell Network protocol. At a current price of $2,851.82, it carries a market cap and fully diluted valuation of approximately $32.0M with a total and circulating supply of 11,234 tokens. The token has delivered a strong 90-day return of +51.0% and currently trades at the top of its 91-day range, though on-chain liquidity is critically thin at $158,052 and daily trading volume is negligible relative to market cap. The combination of strong price performance and very low liquidity creates a bifurcated profile: compelling trend momentum but meaningful execution and manipulation risk for any meaningful position size.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Sep 4, 2026, 09:16 AM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Risk: high
Sentiment: neutral
ETH liquid staking derivative with a price that tracks ETH plus accrued staking yield, giving it a fundamental value anchor unlike purely speculative tokens
Extremely low circulating supply of 11,234 tokens at a high per-unit price (~$2,852), resulting in a concentrated market structure
Backed by the Swell Network protocol with active social channels (Twitter, Telegram, Discord, Website), suggesting an established project rather than an anonymous launch

swETH AI Price Analysis

Medium Confidence
Short-Term24h-7d
Bullish

swETH is trading at virtually the top of its 91-day range ($1,712.24–$2,856.75), with the current price of $2,851.68 sitting at 100% of that range. The 7-day gain of +3.7% confirms near-term upward momentum, and the price has been making a series of higher closes over the most recent sessions. Immediate resistance at $2,856.75 is the only near-term ceiling, and a clean break above it would represent a new 91-day high.

Medium-Term30d-90d
Bullish

The 30-day gain of +32.8% and 90-day gain of +51.0% establish a strong, sustained uptrend that is not a short-term anomaly. Price has more than doubled from the 91-day low of $1,712.24, and the trajectory of recent daily closes shows consistent demand. Unless macro conditions for ETH-denominated liquid staking deteriorate sharply, the medium-term bias remains bullish with major support anchored at $1,712.24.

Bullish Factors
  • +Price sits at 100% of the 91-day range ($1,712.24–$2,856.75), indicating sustained buying pressure over the full observation window
  • +30-day return of +32.8% and 90-day return of +51.0% confirm a durable uptrend, not a one-day spike
  • +Daily volatility of 3.0% is moderate for a crypto asset, suggesting the uptrend is orderly rather than speculative blow-off
Bearish Factors
  • -Total liquidity of only $158,052 means even modest sell orders can cause significant price impact, amplifying downside risk
  • -The top 10 holders control 68.3% of supply; without per-wallet classification data, the dumpable portion of that concentration cannot be assessed, creating unquantifiable overhang risk
  • -24h combined volume of ~$15,624 against a $32M market cap implies extremely thin real trading interest, making the price vulnerable to manipulation or sudden illiquidity

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

swETH call history

Full track record →
Sep 4bullish
24hpending
7dpending
30dpending

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

ChainEthereum
Contract0xf951...ed78
Total Supply—
Decimals—

Key Risks

•Liquidity crisis risk: With only $158,052 in DEX pool depth, a coordinated exit by even a small number of the top 10 holders (who control 68.3% of supply) could cause catastrophic price impact in this pool
•ETH correlation risk: As a liquid staking derivative, swETH's USD value is directly tied to ETH price; a significant ETH bear market would compress swETH's USD value regardless of protocol health
•Smart contract and protocol risk: Swell Network's staking contracts hold the underlying ETH; a protocol exploit, validator slashing event, or withdrawal mechanism failure could impair the redemption value of swETH

Trading Insight

neutral

The 24-hour buy/sell split is nearly perfectly balanced at 50.0% buy pressure and 50.0% sell pressure across 32 total transactions, indicating no directional conviction from active traders in the short window. With only 11 unique buyers and 14 unique sellers over 24 hours, this market is extremely thinly traded and individual transactions carry outsized influence on price.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d):
Bullish
Medium-Term (30d):
Bullish

Both the short-term (+3.7% over 7 days) and medium-term (+32.8% over 30 days, +51.0% over 90 days) trends are firmly bullish. The recent daily close sequence shows the price recovering from a mid-period dip around $2,687–$2,725 to push back toward the 91-day high, confirming the uptrend's resilience. The price sitting at 100% of the 91-day range is the clearest technical signal of sustained buying pressure.

Momentum

Status:
Overbought

With price at the absolute top of its 91-day range and a 90-day return of +51.0%, momentum indicators would likely register overbought conditions. The daily volatility of 3.0% is moderate, but the combination of range-top positioning and strong multi-window gains suggests limited near-term upside without a consolidation phase or a breakout above $2,856.75.

Volume Analysis

Buy 50%Sell 50%

Volume Trend: Stable

DEX volume on this Uniswap pool is consistently low, with 24-hour combined volume of ~$15,624 showing no meaningful acceleration or deceleration. The stable but thin volume profile means price moves are driven by small order flow, and the trend is sustained by the absence of sellers rather than active accumulation.

Recent Price Action

The 14 most recent daily closes show a recovery pattern: after pulling back from ~$2,835 to a local low of $2,687.45, price has reclaimed ground and pushed to $2,851.68, just $5 below the 91-day high of $2,856.75. This is a higher-low, higher-high structure on the daily chart.

A higher-low, higher-high pattern approaching a multi-month resistance level is classically bullish. A confirmed close above $2,856.75 would signal a breakout to new highs. Failure to break and a reversal from this level would form a double-top pattern, which would be a bearish signal warranting caution.

Key Price Levels

Support
Immediate$2,821.03
Major$1,712.24
Resistance
Immediate$2,856.75
Major$2,856.75

Immediate support at $2,821.03 is the nearest OHLC-derived swing level and represents the first line of defense in a pullback — a breach here would open the path toward deeper retracement. The 91-day low of $1,712.24 serves as major support and represents a -40% drawdown from current price, illustrating the full downside risk in a trend reversal. Immediate and major resistance converge at $2,856.75, the 91-day swing high; this level is the critical breakout trigger — a sustained close above it would confirm new highs and likely attract momentum buyers.

Overall Risk:
High
68/100

Risk Breakdown

Volatility
Medium

Daily return volatility of 3.0% (standard deviation) is moderate for a crypto asset. The 90-day drawdown from high to low spans 40% ($2,856.75 to $1,712.24), which is significant but not extreme for an ETH-correlated liquid staking token. The primary volatility driver is ETH price, not protocol-specific speculation.

Liquidity
High

Total DEX liquidity of $158,052 is critically thin for a $32M market cap asset, representing a liquidity-to-market-cap ratio of under 0.5%. Any order above a few thousand dollars will face material slippage in this pool. While other venues may exist, this pool's depth alone poses a high execution risk for traders.

Concentration
Medium

The top 10 holders control 68.3% of the 11,234-token supply. For a liquid staking token, a substantial portion of this concentration likely resides in protocol contracts or exchange custody rather than individual dumpable wallets, which would reduce effective concentration risk. However, per-wallet classification data is unavailable, so this cannot be confirmed, warranting a medium rather than high rating.

Smart Contract
Medium

No contract security data is available from this chain's data provider, so this is an uninformed default rating rather than an assessed score. Users should consult Swell Network's published audit reports independently. The 40.8-month operational history without a known exploit is a mild positive signal but not a substitute for a formal audit review.

Regulatory
Medium

Liquid staking derivatives on Ethereum face ongoing regulatory scrutiny in multiple jurisdictions, particularly regarding whether staking-as-a-service constitutes an unregistered securities offering. This is a sector-wide risk affecting all liquid staking protocols, not specific to Swell Network.

Key Risks

  • •Liquidity crisis risk: With only $158,052 in DEX pool depth, a coordinated exit by even a small number of the top 10 holders (who control 68.3% of supply) could cause catastrophic price impact in this pool
  • •ETH correlation risk: As a liquid staking derivative, swETH's USD value is directly tied to ETH price; a significant ETH bear market would compress swETH's USD value regardless of protocol health
  • •Smart contract and protocol risk: Swell Network's staking contracts hold the underlying ETH; a protocol exploit, validator slashing event, or withdrawal mechanism failure could impair the redemption value of swETH

Mitigating Factors

  • •The 40.8-month operational history without a publicly known exploit suggests the core contracts have been battle-tested through multiple market cycles
  • •The fundamental value anchor of swETH (staked ETH plus yield) provides a floor that purely speculative tokens lack, as holders can theoretically redeem for underlying ETH through the protocol

Investor Suitability

swETH may be suitable for ETH-bullish investors who are already comfortable with Ethereum liquid staking protocols and understand the associated smart contract risks. Given the thin DEX liquidity, it is not suitable for traders seeking quick entry/exit or for investors who cannot tolerate illiquidity. The high concentration and unavailable security data make it unsuitable for risk-averse investors without independent due diligence on Swell Network's audit history.

swETH presents a compelling trend-based case as a liquid staking derivative riding both ETH price appreciation and staking yield accrual, having returned +51.0% over 90 days. The core thesis is straightforward: if ETH continues to appreciate and Swell Network retains its staked ETH base, swETH should track higher. The primary risk is not the token itself but the thin secondary market liquidity, which creates execution risk disproportionate to the fundamental quality of the underlying asset.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case
Medium

ETH enters a sustained bull phase, driving swETH's USD value higher in tandem. Swell Network grows its total value locked, increasing the protocol's credibility and potentially attracting deeper liquidity to swETH markets. Price breaks above the 91-day high of $2,856.75 and establishes a new range, with the +51.0% 90-day trend continuing into the next quarter.

  • +Continued ETH price appreciation driven by institutional adoption, ETF inflows, or network upgrade catalysts
  • +Growth in Ethereum liquid staking market share, with Swell Network capturing a larger portion of staked ETH
Base Case

swETH continues to track ETH price with modest staking yield accrual, consolidating near current levels after the strong 90-day run. The token maintains its 15,170 holder base and thin but functional DEX liquidity, with price oscillating in the $2,700–$2,856 range pending a clear ETH directional catalyst.

  • •ETH price remains range-bound in the near term, limiting both upside and downside for swETH
  • •Swell Network continues normal operations with no protocol-level incidents
Bear Case
Medium

Price fails to break the $2,856.75 resistance and forms a double-top reversal. A broader ETH correction, combined with thin DEX liquidity, causes amplified downside in swETH. In an extreme scenario, a protocol-level event (smart contract exploit or mass unstaking) could cause swETH to trade at a significant discount to its ETH redemption value, with the thin liquidity pool unable to absorb selling pressure.

  • -ETH price correction from current levels, which would mechanically reduce swETH's USD value
  • -Loss of confidence in Swell Network due to a security incident, regulatory action, or competitive pressure from larger liquid staking protocols

Analysis Details

GeneratedSep 4, 2026, 09:16 AM UTC
Data FreshnessReal-time on-chain data
Model Confidence
Medium

Data Snapshot

Price$2851.82905808
Market Cap$32.04M
24h Volume$15.6K
Holders15,170
Liquidity$158.1K

Data Sources

Codex DEX market data (price, volume, liquidity)
Daily OHLC price history
Aggregate holder count and top-10 concentration

Limitations

  • •Holder growth history, size-tier distribution, and acquisition-method data were unavailable for this chain, preventing trend analysis of holder behavior
  • •Whale transaction data and smart-money cohort data were unavailable, so large-holder behavior and profitable-trader positioning could not be assessed
  • •Contract security data is not available from this chain's data provider, making smart contract risk assessment an uninformed default rather than a scored assessment
  • •DEX liquidity and volume data reflects only this specific Uniswap pool and may not represent total swETH market activity across all venues
  • •The project description field contained stale data (supply of 7,286 and price of $1,668) inconsistent with current on-chain figures; on-chain data was used as authoritative

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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