alUSD

Alchemix USD Price Today & AI Analysis

alUSD
Ethereum·AI Analysis
Analysis as of Sep 5, 2026

$0.9762

+3.23%24h
LiveContract:0xbc6da0fe9ad5f3b0d58160288917aa56653660e9Chain:EthereumHolders:2.0KMarket cap:$10.31MLiquidity:$216.39K

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What are the risks?

Red flags, security, concentration

Should I buy?

Bull case, bear case, entry / exit

Movement since reportreport from Sep 5, 2026, 01:15 AM UTC
Market Cap

$10.31M

24h Volume

$47.58K

Liquidity

$216.39K

FDV

—

Holders

2.0K

24HLoading trading activity…

Holder Insights

Live

Total holders

—

AI Executive Summary

Alchemix USD (alUSD) is a yield-backed synthetic stablecoin on Ethereum, now 66.2 months old, designed to maintain a soft peg to $1.00 through collateralized yield-generating positions in the Alchemix protocol. At a current price of $0.9753, alUSD trades at a modest but persistent -2.5% discount to peg, having recovered from a 90-day low of $0.8784 but not yet reclaimed the $0.9907 high. With a market cap of approximately $10.3M and only $216K in on-chain liquidity, alUSD occupies a niche position in the synthetic stablecoin landscape — meaningful in protocol history but limited in current market depth. The token's primary risk profile centers on peg stability, protocol collateral health, and thin liquidity rather than speculative price volatility.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Sep 5, 2026, 01:15 AM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Risk: medium
Sentiment: bullish
Yield-backed peg mechanism: alUSD is minted against yield-generating collateral in Alchemix, meaning the protocol self-repays debt over time rather than requiring liquidations
Established protocol longevity: at 66.2 months on Ethereum, alUSD has survived multiple market cycles, distinguishing it from newer experimental stablecoins
Soft-peg design: unlike hard-pegged stablecoins, alUSD's value is underpinned by future yield accrual, making its peg dynamics fundamentally different from collateral-ratio models

Alchemix USD AI Price Analysis

Medium Confidence
Short-Term24h-7d
Bullish

alUSD has posted a +3.2% gain over the past 7 days and currently sits at 86% of its 90-day range ($0.8784–$0.9907), signalling meaningful recovery momentum toward the upper bound. The recent daily close sequence shows a clear step-up from the $0.94 zone toward $0.9753, with the token now pressing against immediate resistance at $0.9773. Given the stablecoin nature of alUSD, this recovery toward peg is structurally constructive.

Medium-Term30d-90d
Bullish

Over the 30–90 day window, alUSD shows a net +1.8% gain despite a -1.4% 30-day dip, suggesting the token is in a gradual re-peg trajectory after touching a 90-day low of $0.8784. If Alchemix protocol activity and collateral health remain stable, the path toward the major resistance at $0.9907 (near full peg) is plausible. The 30-day softness is a caution flag, but the broader 90-day trend and current range position favour continued recovery.

Bullish Factors
  • +7-day price gain of +3.2% with the token at 86% of its 90-day range, indicating strong near-term momentum toward peg restoration
  • +Buy pressure dominates at 74.7% of 24-hour volume ($35,526 buys vs. $12,058 sells), reflecting net accumulation bias in recent sessions
  • +alUSD is a yield-backed synthetic stablecoin with a 66.2-month track record on Ethereum, providing protocol maturity and battle-tested smart contract exposure
Bearish Factors
  • -alUSD trades at $0.9753, a -2.5% discount to its $1.00 peg target, meaning holders bear ongoing peg-deviation risk that has persisted across the 90-day window
  • -30-day performance is -1.4%, indicating the medium-term trend has not been uniformly positive and peg recovery has been uneven
  • -Total liquidity of only $216,389 on Curve is extremely shallow for a stablecoin with a $10.3M market cap, creating meaningful slippage risk for any position of size

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

alUSD call history

Full track record →
Sep 5bullish
24hpending
7dpending
30dpending

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

ChainEthereum
Contract0xbc6d...60e9
Total Supply—
Decimals—

Key Risks

•Peg instability: alUSD currently trades at a -2.5% discount to $1.00 and has touched $0.8784 within the past 90 days, demonstrating that the soft-peg mechanism can fail to maintain par value during periods of collateral stress or reduced protocol demand
•Liquidity crisis risk: with only $216K in on-chain liquidity, a moderate-sized redemption event or whale exit could cause a rapid, self-reinforcing peg breakdown that the shallow Curve pool cannot absorb
•Protocol dependency: alUSD's value is entirely contingent on the continued operation and solvency of the Alchemix protocol — any smart contract exploit, governance failure, or yield-strategy collapse would directly impair alUSD's backing

Trading Insight

bullish

Trading sentiment leans modestly bullish based on a 74.7% buy-pressure ratio in the past 24 hours, though the absolute transaction count of just 10 trades from 9 unique participants signals this is a low-activity market rather than a conviction-driven rally. The buy/sell volume imbalance ($35,526 vs. $12,058) is notable in percentage terms but small in absolute dollar terms, consistent with a thinly traded stablecoin on Curve.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d):
Bullish
Medium-Term (30d):
Neutral

The short-term trend is clearly upward: the 7-day gain of +3.2% is supported by the daily close sequence stepping from $0.9382 to $0.9753 over the observed window, with the token now at 86% of its 90-day range. The medium-term picture is sideways-to-recovering: the 30-day return of -1.4% partially offsets the 90-day gain of +1.8%, and the price has oscillated between $0.8784 and $0.9907 without establishing a sustained directional trend. Daily volatility of 1.2% is low and consistent with a stablecoin instrument.

Momentum

Status:
Neutral

With daily volatility at just 1.2% and the token sitting at 86% of its 90-day range, momentum is constructive but not stretched. The price is approaching immediate resistance at $0.9773 after a multi-day recovery, suggesting near-term momentum could stall at that level before any attempt at the major resistance of $0.9907. No overbought condition is evident given the distance from the range high.

Volume Analysis

Buy 74.7%Sell 25.3%

Volume Trend: Stable

Daily trading volume is thin and consistent with alUSD's role as a protocol-native stablecoin rather than a speculative asset. The 24-hour combined volume of ~$47.6K represents less than 0.5% of market cap, and the Curve exchange venue is appropriate for stablecoin swaps. Volume is not a leading indicator here; peg mechanics and protocol health are more relevant drivers.

Recent Price Action

The 14 most recent daily closes show a recovery pattern from the $0.9382 trough, with the sequence: $0.9412 → $0.9429 → $0.9632 → $0.9586 → $0.9382 → $0.9560 → $0.9451 → $0.9676 → $0.9520 → $0.9568 → $0.9513 → $0.9410 → $0.9455 → $0.9753. The final close at $0.9753 is the highest in the observed sequence, breaking above the prior cluster of $0.94–$0.96 closes.

A close at the top of the recent range, combined with the 7-day +3.2% gain, suggests the token is in an active re-peg phase. For a stablecoin, this pattern typically indicates improving protocol collateral conditions or reduced redemption pressure rather than speculative buying.

Key Price Levels

Support
Immediate$0.9586
Major$0.8784
Resistance
Immediate$0.9773
Major$0.9907

Immediate support at $0.9586 corresponds to a recent daily close level that has acted as a consolidation floor during the recovery. Major support at $0.8784 marks the 90-day range low — a breach of this level would signal serious peg stress. Immediate resistance at $0.9773 is the next swing high to clear before the token can challenge the major resistance at $0.9907, which represents the closest approach to full peg ($1.00) seen in the 90-day window. For a stablecoin, these levels function as peg-health benchmarks rather than speculative price targets.

Overall Risk:
Medium
45/100

Risk Breakdown

Volatility
Low

Daily return volatility of 1.2% is low and appropriate for a stablecoin instrument. The 90-day range of $0.8784–$0.9907 represents a maximum drawdown of approximately 11.3% from the high, which is elevated for a stablecoin but not unusual for a soft-peg synthetic during DeFi stress periods.

Liquidity
High

Total on-chain liquidity of $216,389 is critically shallow relative to the $10.3M market cap (a liquidity-to-mcap ratio of roughly 2.1%). Any transaction above a few thousand dollars will incur meaningful slippage on Curve, and a coordinated exit by even a small number of large holders could cause significant peg deviation.

Concentration
High

The top 10 holders control 96.9% of supply across only 2,038 total holders. Per-wallet classification data is unavailable, so it cannot be determined how much of this concentration sits in protocol contracts versus individual wallets with dumpable positions. The raw concentration figure alone warrants a high risk classification pending further investigation.

Smart Contract
Medium

No contract-security data is available from the current chain data provider, so this is an uninformed default rather than an assessed risk level. The 66.2-month operational history without known critical failures is a positive signal, but independent audit verification is strongly recommended.

Regulatory
Medium

As a synthetic stablecoin, alUSD faces evolving regulatory scrutiny in multiple jurisdictions where stablecoin issuance and DeFi lending protocols are under active legislative review. The protocol's decentralized structure provides some insulation but does not eliminate regulatory risk.

Key Risks

  • •Peg instability: alUSD currently trades at a -2.5% discount to $1.00 and has touched $0.8784 within the past 90 days, demonstrating that the soft-peg mechanism can fail to maintain par value during periods of collateral stress or reduced protocol demand
  • •Liquidity crisis risk: with only $216K in on-chain liquidity, a moderate-sized redemption event or whale exit could cause a rapid, self-reinforcing peg breakdown that the shallow Curve pool cannot absorb
  • •Protocol dependency: alUSD's value is entirely contingent on the continued operation and solvency of the Alchemix protocol — any smart contract exploit, governance failure, or yield-strategy collapse would directly impair alUSD's backing

Mitigating Factors

  • •The self-repaying loan mechanism structurally reduces liquidation cascades that have historically destabilized other synthetic stablecoins, as collateral is not force-sold during price downturns
  • •66.2 months of operational history on Ethereum mainnet provides meaningful evidence of contract resilience across multiple market cycles, including the 2022 bear market and various DeFi stress events

Investor Suitability

alUSD is most suitable for existing Alchemix protocol participants who mint it as part of a self-repaying loan strategy, and for DeFi liquidity providers comfortable with soft-peg stablecoin mechanics and protocol-specific risks. It is not suitable as a cash-equivalent stablecoin substitute, given the demonstrated peg deviation history and thin liquidity. Investors should have a strong understanding of DeFi yield mechanics and be prepared for periods of sustained discount-to-peg.

alUSD's investment thesis is fundamentally a bet on Alchemix protocol recovery and re-peg to $1.00 from the current $0.9753 level. The 7-day momentum is constructive and the self-repaying mechanism provides structural support, but thin liquidity and high holder concentration are material risks that cap the risk-adjusted appeal for most investors.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case
Medium

Alchemix protocol TVL recovers as DeFi activity increases, driving new alUSD minting demand and tightening the peg toward $0.9907 and ultimately $1.00. Existing holders benefit from both peg appreciation and yield accrual on underlying collateral positions.

  • +Broader DeFi market recovery increasing demand for yield-backed borrowing instruments
  • +Continued daily close progression toward the $0.9907 major resistance, validating the current re-peg trajectory
Base Case

alUSD continues its gradual re-peg trajectory, oscillating between $0.96 and $0.98 over the next 30–90 days without achieving full $1.00 parity, as protocol activity remains subdued but stable. Liquidity remains thin and the token continues to serve primarily as an internal Alchemix instrument.

  • •Alchemix protocol remains operational and collateral strategies continue generating yield without major disruption
  • •No significant macro or regulatory shock triggers a broad DeFi liquidity withdrawal that would stress the Curve pool
Bear Case
Medium

Protocol TVL continues to decline, reducing alUSD demand and collateral backing. A large holder exit through the shallow $216K Curve pool triggers a peg breakdown toward or below the 90-day low of $0.8784, eroding confidence in the soft-peg mechanism.

  • -Critically shallow liquidity of $216K making the peg vulnerable to even modest sell pressure from concentrated holders
  • -Persistent 30-day negative return of -1.4% suggesting medium-term demand has not fully recovered

Analysis Details

GeneratedSep 5, 2026, 01:15 AM UTC
Data FreshnessReal-time on-chain data
Model Confidence
Medium

Data Snapshot

Price$0.976235355357
Market Cap$10.31M
24h Volume$47.6K
Holders2,038
Liquidity$216.4K

Data Sources

Codex DEX market data (price, volume, liquidity)
Daily OHLC price history
Aggregate holder count and top-10 concentration

Limitations

  • •Holder-growth history, size-tier distribution, and individual wallet classification data were unavailable for this chain, preventing assessment of holder trajectory or dumpable-supply concentration
  • •Whale transaction and smart-money cohort data were unavailable, making it impossible to assess large-holder behavior or profitable-trader positioning
  • •Contract-security audit data was unavailable from the current chain data provider, leaving smart contract risk as an uninformed default assessment
  • •Extremely low transaction count (10 trades in 24h) limits the statistical reliability of short-term sentiment and volume trend conclusions

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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