cvxCRV

Convex CRV Price Today & AI Analysis

cvxCRV
Ethereum·AI Analysis
Analysis as of Jul 11, 2026

$0.1467

+2.27%24h
LiveContract:0x62b9c7356a2dc64a1969e19c23e4f579f9810aa7Chain:EthereumHolders:457Market cap:$62.16MLiquidity:$812.13K

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Ask Unhosted AI about cvxCRV

What's Twitter saying?

Sentiment, KOL mentions, top tweets

Whale activity

Who is accumulating or distributing

What are the risks?

Red flags, security, concentration

Should I buy?

Bull case, bear case, entry / exit

Movement since reportreport from Jul 11, 2026, 07:00 AM UTC
Market Cap

$35.84M

24h Volume

$811.44K

Liquidity

$5.48M

FDV

—

Holders

4.6K

Security

—

24H0 buys
0 sells0 traders

Holder Insights

Live

Total holders

—

24h change

0

Top 10 hold

—

Top acquisition

—

—

AI Executive Summary

cvxCRV is the liquid staking derivative token of Convex Finance, representing CRV deposited into the Convex protocol to earn boosted Curve rewards. At $0.0853, the token trades at a significant discount to CRV's market price, reflecting the illiquidity premium and the one-way nature of the CRV-to-cvxCRV conversion. With a $35.8M market cap, $5.5M in liquidity, and 4,612 holders, it occupies a niche but meaningful role in the Curve/Convex DeFi ecosystem. The token is in a confirmed 30-day downtrend (-14.8%) with declining holder counts, though its supply concentration risk is structurally low due to 98%+ of supply being locked in protocol and exchange contracts.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Jul 11, 2026, 07:00 AM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Risk: medium
Sentiment: neutral
Near-zero dumpable supply (0.5%) — 98%+ of cvxCRV is held in protocol reward contracts and Curve liquidity pools, not by individual sellers
Deeply integrated into the Curve/Convex flywheel as a yield-bearing derivative, giving it fundamental utility beyond pure speculation
Trades at a persistent discount to CRV, creating an arbitrage dynamic that attracts yield-focused DeFi participants rather than retail speculators

Convex CRV AI Price Analysis

Medium Confidence
Short-Term24h-7d
Bearish

cvxCRV is down 2.7% over 7 days and 14.8% over 30 days, establishing a clear short-term downtrend. Despite a 4-session recovery from the $0.0747 low to the current $0.0853, the token remains pinned near the bottom of its 34-day range and faces immediate resistance at $0.08610. The multi-week bearish trend outweighs the recent bounce, suggesting limited upside without a structural catalyst.

Medium-Term30d-90d
Bearish

The 30-day decline of 14.8% and a 31-day holder count drop of 301 wallets (from 4,825 to 4,524) signal sustained disengagement from the token. With 90-day OHLC data unavailable, the medium-term picture is anchored by the 30-day trend, which remains firmly negative. A recovery toward the $0.10+ range would require a meaningful reversal in CRV/Convex ecosystem sentiment and broader DeFi capital rotation.

Bullish Factors
  • +Buy pressure dominates at 80.7% of 24h volume ($654,831 buys vs $156,610 sells), indicating active accumulation interest at current depressed prices.
  • +Recent daily closes show a 4-session recovery sequence from $0.07480 to $0.08531, suggesting short-term buying support has emerged near the $0.075 level.
  • +Dumpable supply is only 0.5% of total supply — the top holders are protocol/exchange contracts with no sell pressure risk, structurally limiting downside from large holder exits.
Bearish Factors
  • -The 30-day price decline of 14.8% and 7-day decline of 2.7% confirm a sustained multi-week downtrend with no confirmed reversal.
  • -Holder count has fallen by 301 wallets over 31 days (from 4,825 to 4,524), a -6.2% decline that signals ongoing user attrition and reduced ecosystem participation.
  • -Current price at $0.0853 sits at effectively 0% of the 34-day period range ($0.06454–$54.57), reflecting extreme historical underperformance relative to the token's all-time trading range.

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

cvxCRV call history

Full track record →
Jul 11bearish
24h-0.7%
7d+7.0%
30d+34.2%

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

ChainEthereum
Contract0x62b9...0aa7
Total Supply—
Decimals—

Key Risks

•Structural discount risk: cvxCRV's persistent discount to CRV can widen if Convex yield becomes less competitive, with no arbitrage floor — the 30-day -14.8% decline may partly reflect this dynamic
•Ecosystem dependency: the token's value is entirely contingent on Curve Finance's continued dominance in stablecoin AMM trading; any structural decline in Curve's market share directly impairs cvxCRV utility and yield
•Holder attrition: the 31-day loss of 301 holders (-6.2%) signals that yield participants are exiting, which if sustained could reduce liquidity pool depth and widen the CRV discount further

Trading Insight

neutral

Buy pressure accounts for 80.7% of 24h volume by dollar value, yet transaction counts are nearly balanced (62 buys vs 68 sells), suggesting a small number of large buyers are driving the volume asymmetry. This pattern is consistent with protocol-level or yield-seeking accumulation rather than broad retail enthusiasm. The overall sentiment is cautiously constructive in the very short term but does not override the prevailing bearish multi-week trend.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d):
Bullish
Medium-Term (30d):
Bearish

The short-term picture shows a 4-session recovery from the $0.07480 low to $0.08531, forming a series of higher closes that constitute a nascent short-term uptrend. However, this bounce occurs within a dominant medium-term downtrend defined by the 30-day -14.8% decline. The 7-day -2.7% reading confirms the medium-term bearish structure has not yet been broken, and the current price sits just below immediate resistance at $0.08610.

Momentum

Status:
Neutral

Daily volatility of 5.1% (standard deviation of daily returns) is moderate for a DeFi derivative token, indicating neither extreme fear nor euphoria. The recent recovery from $0.07480 to $0.08531 represents an approximately 14% bounce, which partially offsets the prior decline but has not yet generated enough momentum to confirm a trend reversal. Price is consolidating near the top of the recent short-term range.

Volume Analysis

Buy 80.7%Sell 19.3%

Volume Trend: Stable

24h volume of ~$811K represents roughly 2.3% of market cap, a healthy but not elevated turnover rate for a DeFi derivative. The 4.2:1 buy-to-sell volume ratio is notable but driven by concentrated large orders rather than broad participation (only 24 unique buyers). Volume patterns suggest protocol-level rebalancing activity rather than speculative momentum.

Recent Price Action

The 14-day close sequence shows a V-shaped recovery: a decline from $0.08413 to $0.07480 over two sessions, followed by a 4-session recovery to $0.08531. The token is now consolidating in a tight range between $0.08326 and $0.08819 over the past 5 sessions.

The V-shaped recovery and subsequent consolidation near the upper end of the recent range suggests buyers have defended the $0.075 area. However, the failure to break above $0.08819 (recent session high) and the proximity to immediate resistance at $0.08610 indicate the recovery may be losing momentum.

Key Price Levels

Support
Immediate$0.08522
Major$0.06454
Resistance
Immediate$0.08610
Major$54.57

The immediate support at $0.08522 and resistance at $0.08610 define an extremely tight $0.00088 trading band, meaning the current price is essentially at a decision point. A break below $0.08522 opens the path toward major support at $0.06454 (the 34-day period low), representing a potential 24% drawdown. The major resistance at $54.57 reflects the token's historical all-time high range and is not a realistic near-term target — it underscores how far cvxCRV has declined from peak Curve ecosystem valuations.

Holder Metrics

Total Holders4,612
24h Change+0
Growth Rate+0%

The 31-day holder trajectory from 4,825 to 4,524 (net -301, -6.2%) is the most telling on-chain signal for this token. This sustained decline over a full month indicates that yield participants are unwinding cvxCRV positions, likely as Curve boosted rewards become less attractive relative to alternatives. The 7-day net gain of only 4 holders and 30-day gain of 9 holders (from the 24h/7d/30d snapshot) appear inconsistent with the 31-day timeseries, which should be treated as the authoritative trend signal per the data.

Holder Distribution

Top 10 Holders99%
Top 100 Holders100%
Retail Holders0.0%
Concentration Risk:
Low

While the raw top-10 concentration of 99% appears alarming, the classified holder data reveals this is almost entirely protocol and exchange contracts: Convex Finance's reward contract (84.10%) and Curve.fi (13.87%) alone account for 98% of supply. These are non-dumpable protocol positions. Total dumpable supply from individual whales and non-protocol wallets is just 0.5%, making genuine concentration risk low. Retail holders hold ~0% of supply, consistent with cvxCRV being a protocol-layer token rather than a retail trading asset.

Whale Activity

Sentiment:
Distributing

Wallet 0x440888 executed four sell transactions totaling approximately $41,486 ($10,418 + $10,395 + $10,351 + $10,322), representing systematic distribution in near-equal tranches. Wallet 0x7c075f placed two buy orders totaling approximately $16,524 ($8,268 + $8,256), partially offsetting the selling.

  • •0x440888 sold ~$41,486 across four tranches of ~$10,300–$10,418 each, suggesting algorithmic or systematic selling
  • •0x7c075f bought ~$16,524 across two near-equal tranches of ~$8,256–$8,268, indicating a separate accumulator partially absorbing supply

The tranche-based selling pattern from 0x440888 is consistent with a yield farmer unwinding a cvxCRV position systematically to minimize slippage. The partial absorption by 0x7c075f suggests there is demand at current prices, but the net flow from these two wallets is still negative (~$24,962 net sell). This reinforces the short-term distributing sentiment among active individual participants.

Smart Money Indicators

Confidence:
Low
Profit-Taking Risk:
Medium

Six tracked smart money wallets (0xbccc7e, 0xb0fe3d, 0x346c80, 0xf8dbb9, 0x1bf1c0, 0x876db6) each show identical realized PnL of +$15,230 (+417%) over 16 trades each. The uniformity of these figures across all six wallets is statistically anomalous and may reflect shared strategy execution, bot activity, or data aggregation artifacts rather than independent smart money signals.

The identical PnL figures across all six smart money wallets (+$15,230, +417%, 16 trades each) are highly suspicious and should not be treated as independent confirmation of smart money conviction. If taken at face value, the 417% realized gains suggest these wallets entered at significantly lower prices and have already captured substantial profits, raising the question of whether they remain positioned or have fully exited. The anomalous uniformity reduces the reliability of this signal.

Liquidity Analysis

Total Liquidity$5,482,440.96
Depth:
Moderate
Slippage Risk:
Medium

The $5.48M liquidity pool on Curve.fi Metapool represents approximately 15.3% of the $35.8M market cap, which is a reasonable liquidity ratio for a DeFi derivative. However, given that the token trades at $0.0853 and the pool is a Curve metapool (designed for stable/correlated asset pairs), large orders relative to the pool depth could still experience meaningful slippage. The 24h volume of ~$811K represents about 14.8% of total liquidity, indicating active but not excessive pool utilization.

Overall Risk:
Medium
42/100

Risk Breakdown

Volatility
Medium

Daily return volatility of 5.1% is moderate, and the 30-day price decline of 14.8% demonstrates meaningful drawdown potential. The token's tight trading range near the bottom of its 34-day period and the $54.57 historical high illustrate extreme long-term volatility, though near-term swings are more contained.

Liquidity
Medium

$5.48M in Curve metapool liquidity is adequate for small-to-medium trades but could result in meaningful slippage for orders exceeding $50K–$100K. The Curve metapool structure provides more stable liquidity than a standard AMM, partially mitigating this risk.

Concentration
Low

Despite 99% top-10 holder concentration, dumpable supply is only 0.5% — the dominant holders are the Convex reward contract (84.10%) and Curve.fi (13.87%), which are non-selling protocol positions. Individual whale wallets hold a combined ~0.34% of supply, posing negligible dump risk.

Smart Contract
Medium

The 64/100 security score and immutable contract architecture mean any undiscovered vulnerability is permanent. However, 61.8 months of live operation without a major exploit provides meaningful empirical evidence of contract robustness.

Regulatory
Medium

As a DeFi yield derivative tied to Curve Finance governance, cvxCRV faces the same regulatory uncertainty affecting DeFi protocols broadly, including potential classification as a security in certain jurisdictions given its yield-bearing and governance-adjacent characteristics.

Key Risks

  • •Structural discount risk: cvxCRV's persistent discount to CRV can widen if Convex yield becomes less competitive, with no arbitrage floor — the 30-day -14.8% decline may partly reflect this dynamic
  • •Ecosystem dependency: the token's value is entirely contingent on Curve Finance's continued dominance in stablecoin AMM trading; any structural decline in Curve's market share directly impairs cvxCRV utility and yield
  • •Holder attrition: the 31-day loss of 301 holders (-6.2%) signals that yield participants are exiting, which if sustained could reduce liquidity pool depth and widen the CRV discount further

Mitigating Factors

  • •Near-zero dumpable supply (0.5%) means price action is driven by genuine market participants rather than insider or whale dumping risk
  • •61.8 months of operational history with verified contracts and third-party audits provides a meaningful track record that distinguishes cvxCRV from newer, higher-risk DeFi tokens

Investor Suitability

cvxCRV is most suitable for DeFi-native yield farmers who understand the Curve/Convex ecosystem, are comfortable with the permanent CRV conversion mechanic, and are seeking boosted yield rather than price appreciation. It is not suitable for retail investors seeking speculative gains or those unfamiliar with DeFi yield mechanics and the risks of illiquid derivative tokens.

cvxCRV is a yield instrument, not a speculative token — its investment thesis centers on the attractiveness of Convex-boosted Curve rewards relative to the discount paid versus holding CRV directly. The current bearish price trend and declining holder base suggest the yield proposition is losing competitiveness, but the structural protocol lock-up and low dump risk provide a floor of sorts.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case
Low

A recovery in CRV price and renewed demand for Curve liquidity provision drives yield-seekers back into cvxCRV, narrowing the CRV discount and pushing price toward the $0.10–$0.12 range. Broader DeFi market recovery and increased stablecoin trading volumes on Curve would be the primary drivers.

  • +CRV token price recovery and increased Curve protocol fee generation making cvxCRV yield more attractive
  • +Macro DeFi risk-on rotation bringing new capital into yield-bearing DeFi derivatives
Base Case

cvxCRV consolidates in the $0.075–$0.090 range over the next 30–90 days, with price action driven primarily by CRV market dynamics and Curve ecosystem activity. Holder count stabilizes as the remaining base consists of committed yield participants, and the token continues to trade at a 10–20% discount to CRV.

  • •Curve Finance maintains its position as a leading stablecoin AMM without a major competitive disruption
  • •Convex Finance's boosted yield remains sufficient to retain its existing yield-farmer base despite broader DeFi yield compression
Bear Case
Medium

Continued holder attrition and weakening Curve ecosystem relevance push cvxCRV toward the major support at $0.06454, representing a further ~24% decline from current levels. If Curve loses market share to newer AMM designs, the yield proposition deteriorates further and the CRV discount widens.

  • -Sustained decline in Curve Finance trading volumes reducing protocol fees and cvxCRV yield
  • -Continued holder exit trend (-301 over 31 days) accelerating as yield farmers redeploy capital to higher-return opportunities

Analysis Details

GeneratedJul 11, 2026, 07:00 AM UTC
Data FreshnessReal-time on-chain data
Model Confidence
Medium

Data Snapshot

Price$0.085305983144026945
Market Cap$35.84M
24h Volume$811.4K
Holders4,612
Liquidity$5.48M

Data Sources

On-chain transaction data (Ethereum mainnet, contract 0x62b9c7356a2dc64a1969e19c23e4f579f9810aa7)
34-day daily OHLC price history
31-day holder count timeseries
Classified top-10 holder distribution with protocol/individual labeling
Smart money realized PnL data (6 wallets)
Notable recent trade data (largest on-chain swaps)
Liquidity pool data from Curve.fi Metapool

Limitations

  • •90-day OHLC data is unavailable, limiting the medium-term technical analysis to the 34-day dataset and preventing a full multi-timeframe trend confirmation
  • •Smart money PnL data shows identical figures across all six tracked wallets (+$15,230, +417%, 16 trades each), which is statistically anomalous and reduces the reliability of that signal as an independent confirmation
  • •The CRV-to-cvxCRV discount (a key fundamental metric) cannot be precisely calculated without real-time CRV price data in this dataset

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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