UMA

UMA Voting Token v1 Price Today & AI Analysis

UMAEthereumAnalysis as of Oct 5, 2026

Price

$0.4299

+7.22% 24h

Contract

Live
0x04fa0d235c4abf4bcf4787af4cf447de572ef828

Chain

Ethereum

Holders

26.3K

Market cap

$39.17M

Liquidity

$81.24K

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UMA Voting Token v1: holders, selling & liquidity

2026-10-05 13:16 UTC

Holder addresses

26,254

Top 10 supply share

67.24%

Reported liquidity

$83,848.00
How concentrated is UMA Voting Token v1 ownership?
As of 2026-10-05 13:16 UTC, the provider reports that the top 10 holder addresses hold 67.24% of supply. It reports 26,254 holder addresses in total. Addresses are not people; pool, exchange, burn and related addresses have not been independently classified here.
Are large holders selling UMA Voting Token v1?
This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. As of 2026-10-05 13:16 UTC, the preceding 24-hour DEX volume was $32,011.00 in buys and $21,422.00 in sells. Those totals describe trading activity, not which holders traded. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.
Is UMA Voting Token v1 liquidity falling?
Sampled USD liquidity changed -6.92%, from $124,734.95 (2026-10-04 14:00 UTC) to $116,106.18 (2026-10-05 13:00 UTC). This compares the earliest and latest available samples, which may cover less than 24 hours. USD changes can reflect asset prices as well as liquidity deposits or withdrawals.
Sources, observations & limitations

Source: Codex token aggregates, hourly liquidity samples and recent DEX swaps. Token aggregates retrieved 2026-10-05 13:16 UTC; the provider may lag the chain. Buy/sell totals cover the preceding 24 hours. Observations are saved with this report and do not update live. Holder addresses are not unique people. The provider’s top-10 share is not adjusted here for pools, exchanges, burn addresses or related wallets. Sniper classifications and wallet-level holder history are unavailable. Inspect token on the block explorer.

Saved liquidity observations

Observation (UTC)Liquidity (USD)
2026-10-04 14:00 UTC$124,734.95
2026-10-04 16:00 UTC$124,769.44
2026-10-04 21:00 UTC$123,990.28
2026-10-04 22:00 UTC$126,513.64
2026-10-04 23:00 UTC$126,300.11
2026-10-05 03:00 UTC$125,816.36
2026-10-05 04:00 UTC$126,274.95
2026-10-05 05:00 UTC$126,105.21
2026-10-05 06:00 UTC$123,403.07
2026-10-05 07:00 UTC$122,608.51
2026-10-05 08:00 UTC$122,941.78
2026-10-05 09:00 UTC$123,241.90
2026-10-05 10:00 UTC$123,233.86
2026-10-05 11:00 UTC$123,479.82
2026-10-05 12:00 UTC$112,976.11
2026-10-05 13:00 UTC$116,106.18

Recent swap evidence

Up to 10 recent swaps returned by the provider within the preceding 24 hours. This is a sample, not all trades or a ranking of large holders.

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Movement since report

report from Oct 5, 2026, 01:16 PM UTC

Market Cap

$39.82M

24h Volume

$53.43K

Liquidity

$83.85K

FDV

—

Holders

26,254

24h

Loading trading activity…

AI Executive Summary

Risk

Medium

Sentiment

Bullish

UMA Voting Token v1 (UMA) is the governance and dispute-resolution token of the UMA protocol, which builds 'priceless' synthetic financial contracts on Ethereum. The contract is 80.8 months old, with a market cap of about $39.8M and an FDV of about $57.4M. Price is $0.4369, up 18.6% over 90 days. DEX liquidity on Uniswap is shallow at $83,848.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Oct 5, 2026, 01:16 PM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Key points

  • Governance token for the Data Verification Mechanism (DVM), which resolves disputes on financial contracts
  • 'Priceless' contract design that minimizes on-chain oracle price requests
  • Long-established Ethereum contract (80.8 months old) with 26,254 holders

UMA Voting Token v1 AI Price Analysis

Low Confidence

Short-Term · 24h-7d

Bullish

The 7d (+7.3%) and 30d (+11.5%) trends both point upward, and the latest daily close of $0.4369 broke out of a roughly $0.39-$0.43 range that held for most of the prior two weeks. Price now sits at 71% of its 91-day range, directly at immediate resistance of $0.4372. A hold above $0.4236 keeps the breakout intact.

Medium-Term · 30d-90d

Bullish

Price is up 18.6% over 90 days and 11.5% over 30 days, a consistent higher-timeframe uptrend. The 91-day low of $0.3182 is well below the current price, so the structure favors continuation toward the $0.4852 period high, though a rejection at that level would be a likely pause point.

Bullish Factors

  • Positive trend across all windows: 7d +7.3%, 30d +11.5%, 90d +18.6%
  • Latest daily close of $0.4369 is the highest of the last 14 closes, breaking out of the $0.39-$0.43 range
  • Buy volume of $32,011 exceeds sell volume of $21,422 (59.9% buy share), with 29 unique buyers versus 22 sellers over 24h

Bearish Factors

  • Price is at immediate resistance of $0.4372, and the $0.4852 period high is about 11% higher
  • Liquidity of $83,848 is thin against a $39.8M market cap, so any large sale can cause outsized moves
  • Top 10 holders control 67.2% of supply; their composition is unknown, so overhang risk cannot be ruled out

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

UMA call history

Full track record →

Oct 5bullish
24hpending
7dpending
30dpending

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

Chain
Ethereum
Contract
0x04fa...f828
Total Supply
—
Decimals
—

Key Risks

  • Thin DEX liquidity ($83,848) amplifies slippage and price swings
  • High top-10 concentration (67.2%) with unknown holder types
  • Breakout is at resistance and could fail, returning price to the $0.39-$0.42 range

Trading Insight

bullish

Buy volume leads sell volume at 59.9% to 40.1% over 24h, and unique buyers (29) outnumber unique sellers (22). Over the last hour, activity is balanced (33 buys vs 32 sells), so the edge comes from larger buy tickets rather than transaction count.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d)

Bullish

Medium-Term (30d)

Bullish

The price moved from a $0.3980 close to $0.4369 in two sessions, breaking out of a sideways range. The 30d and 90d gains show the higher-timeframe trend is up. Daily volatility is 2.9%.

Momentum

Status

Neutral

Price at 71% of the 91-day range is firm but not extreme. The latest daily jump of nearly 7% is a short-term stretch, but without RSI data, overbought conditions cannot be confirmed.

Volume Analysis

Buy

59.9%

Sell

40.1%

Volume Trend

Stable

No historical volume series is available, so the trend is labeled stable by default. 24h flow favors buyers modestly, with $32.0K bought versus $21.4K sold.

Recent Price Action

Two weeks of consolidation between about $0.39 and $0.43, followed by a sharp close at $0.4369 that tests the range top.

A range breakout on a daily close often signals continuation, but on thin liquidity it can reverse quickly if it fails to hold above prior resistance.

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$0.4236

Major support

$0.3182

Immediate resistance

$0.4372

Major resistance

$0.4852

Price is pressing against $0.4372, so a sustained close above it would target $0.4852, the period high. $0.4236 is the nearest floor and likely the retest zone. $0.3182 is the 91-day low and would only be in play if the uptrend fully fails.

AI overall risk

Medium

Risk Score

50/100

Risk Breakdown

  • VolatilityMedium

    Daily volatility is 2.9% and the 91-day range spans $0.3182-$0.4852, a wide band of about 52% from low to high.

  • LiquidityHigh

    Total liquidity of $83,848 on Uniswap is thin relative to a $39.8M market cap, so sizeable orders can move price.

  • ConcentrationMedium

    The top 10 holders hold 67.2%, but they cannot be classified, so dumpable supply is unknown.

  • Smart ContractNot assessed

    Contract or authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations.

  • RegulatoryMedium

    As a governance token, UMA may face evolving classification scrutiny, though the project describes it as a utility token. No specific regulatory data is provided.

Key Risks

  • Thin DEX liquidity ($83,848) amplifies slippage and price swings
  • High top-10 concentration (67.2%) with unknown holder types
  • Breakout is at resistance and could fail, returning price to the $0.39-$0.42 range

Mitigating Factors

  • Long track record (80.8 months) and a broad base of 26,254 holders
  • Consistent positive trend across 7d, 30d, and 90d windows

Investor Suitability

Suited to risk-tolerant investors who understand governance and oracle protocols and can manage thin-liquidity execution. Not suitable for those needing easy exit at size.

UMA shows a constructive multi-window uptrend backed by an established protocol and modest net buying. Thin on-chain liquidity and unclassified concentration cap conviction.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Medium probability

A daily close above $0.4372 leads to a retest of the $0.4852 period high and potential price discovery above it.

  • Sustained net buying and growing unique buyers
  • Positive DeFi and oracle sector sentiment

Base Case

Price consolidates around $0.42-$0.44 while testing resistance, with a modest upward bias toward $0.4852 over weeks.

  • Trend persistence across the 7d, 30d, and 90d windows
  • No major shock to liquidity or holder behavior

Bear Case

Low probability

The breakout fails, price loses $0.4236, and drifts back toward the $0.39-$0.40 range, with a deeper decline toward $0.3182 in a broad market downturn.

  • Selling by large holders into thin liquidity
  • Weak broader crypto conditions

Analysis Details

Generated

Oct 5, 2026, 01:16 PM UTC

Saved observation

2026-10-05 13:16 UTC

Model Confidence

Low

Data Snapshot

Price

$0.436937806184

Market Cap

$39.82M

24h Volume

$53.4K

Holders

26,254

Liquidity

$83,848.00

Data Sources

Codex DEX market data (price, volume, liquidity)Daily OHLC price historyAggregate holder count and top-10 concentration

Limitations

  • Holder-growth, whale-transaction, and contract-security data were unavailable for this analysis
  • Smart-money, deployer, and launch-allocation forensics were unavailable
  • DEX volume and liquidity cover only one venue and may understate total trading activity

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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