螃蟹效应

螃蟹效应 Price Today & AI Analysis

螃蟹效应
BNB Chain·AI Analysis
Analysis as of Jun 17, 2026

$0.053377

-1.02%24h
LiveContract:0xfded404fdcce4f112364fc6b2b176493d5434444Chain:BNB ChainHolders:291Market cap:$3.38KLiquidity:$3.27K

More tokens on BNB Chain

BurnStock

BurnStock

首创燃烧分红保本机制

$0.0532942.1%
MC $3.3K
旺

旺

旺

$0.0534183.2%
MC $3.4K
B

bnbagent

BNB Agent Fund

$0.0569123.4%
MC $6.9K
G

GANA

GANA

$0.00051118.0%
MC $5.1K
ODY

ODY

ODY

$0.0512770.8%
MC $13.1K
UUSD

UUSD

Unity USD

$266,757.0926676576.2%
MC $26675.71B

Advanced charting powered by TradingView

Continue in chat

Ask Unhosted AI about 螃蟹效应

What's Twitter saying?

Sentiment, KOL mentions, top tweets

Whale activity

Who is accumulating or distributing

What are the risks?

Red flags, security, concentration

Should I buy?

Bull case, bear case, entry / exit

Movement since reportreport from Jun 17, 2026, 09:01 AM UTC
Market Cap

$230.28K

24h Volume

$1.26M

Liquidity

$47.92K

FDV

—

Holders

992

24HLoading trading activity…

Holder Insights

Live

Total holders

—

AI Executive Summary

螃蟹效应 is a meme token on BNB Chain (BSC) that is exactly 1 hour old, having launched at 2026-06-17T08:11:56Z with a total supply of 1 billion tokens and a current market cap of approximately $230,285. The token experienced a 307.6% price surge within its first hour of existence, generating over $1.26M in combined buy and sell volume across 12,772 transactions — a pattern consistent with a coordinated launch pump on a meme launchpad (Four.meme). Critical red flags include an unverified contract, a deployer with no prior deployment history and unknown funding, multiple top whale wallets that received supply via transfer at zero cost basis, and a complete absence of project description or social presence. The token presents an extremely high-risk profile suitable only for traders who fully understand they may be participating in a short-lived speculative event.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Jun 17, 2026, 09:01 AM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Risk: very_high
Sentiment: neutral
Launched on Four.meme launchpad with immediate high-velocity trading — over 12,700 transactions in the first hour alone
Top 10 holder concentration is relatively moderate at 23%, with the largest single position (10.39%) classified as a protocol/contract rather than a dumpable individual whale
Deployer wallet is 443 days old but has zero prior contract deployments, presenting an ambiguous but concerning forensic profile

螃蟹效应 AI Price Analysis

Low Confidence
Short-Term24h-7d
Bearish

The token is only 1 hour old and has already posted a 307.6% price spike within its first hour of trading — a classic launch pump pattern on meme tokens. With no OHLC history to establish support, the price is entirely at the mercy of early holder sentiment, and the whale wallet intel shows the top individual holders received their positions via transfer rather than market buys, meaning they carry zero cost basis and face no loss from selling immediately. The near-equal buy/sell pressure (50.5% vs 49.5%) across 12,772 transactions in a single hour signals a highly active but fragile market that could tip sharply downward once early recipients begin distributing.

Medium-Term30d-90d
Bearish

The medium-term outlook is bearish given the structural profile: an unverified contract, no project description, no social presence, a deployer wallet with zero prior contract deployments and unknown funding source, and a token category limited to meme/community speculation. Holder growth from 34 to 992 in under an hour is impressive in raw numbers but reflects launch-day FOMO rather than organic community building. Without a utility narrative, verified contract, or identifiable development team, sustaining price above the launch-pump level over 30–90 days is historically unlikely for tokens of this profile.

Bullish Factors
  • +Rapid holder growth from 34 to 992 within the first hour demonstrates strong initial demand and broad distribution across 2,201 unique buyers in 24h trading data
  • +Dumpable supply is relatively contained at 17.9% — the largest single holder (10.39%) is classified as a protocol/contract and is not dumpable whale risk, limiting the immediate sell-side overhang from identifiable insiders
  • +Buy transaction count (6,661) exceeds sell transaction count (6,111) with marginally positive buy pressure at 50.5%, indicating slightly more aggressive buying than selling at current prices
Bearish Factors
  • -The 307.6% price spike occurred entirely within the first hour of launch — this is a textbook launch pump with no sustained price discovery, and such moves almost universally retrace sharply once initial momentum fades
  • -All three top individual whale wallets (2.18%, 1.83%, 1.51% of supply) acquired their positions via transfer with zero DEX swap history on this token, meaning they hold at effectively zero cost basis and can dump with no loss at any price
  • -The deployer wallet (0x757eba15…) has zero contract deployments in its earliest 100 transactions and was funded from an unknown source — a disposable-deployer pattern that elevates rug-pull risk significantly
  • -The contract is unverified, there is no project description, and no social links exist — the token has no identifiable utility, team, or community infrastructure beyond the launch-day trading activity

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

螃蟹效应 call history

Full track record →
Jun 17bearish
24h-86.5%
7d-97.4%
30d-98.5%

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

ChainBNB Chain
Contract0xfded...4444
Total Supply—
Decimals—

Key Risks

•Rug pull risk: unverified contract, deployer with no prior deployment history funded from unknown source, and insider wallets holding zero-cost-basis positions acquired via transfer — all three conditions for a potential exit scam are present simultaneously
•Launch pump reversion: the 307.6% price spike in 1 hour with near-perfectly balanced buy/sell pressure and thin $47,921 liquidity is structurally unsustainable; historical meme token patterns strongly suggest a sharp retracement is likely once initial momentum exhausts
•Zero fundamental support: no project description, no social presence, no verified contract, and no identifiable use case means the token's price is 100% dependent on speculative momentum with no floor from utility demand or community infrastructure

Trading Insight

neutral

Despite the explosive 307.6% price move, the actual buy/sell pressure split is nearly perfectly balanced at 50.5% buys vs 49.5% sells, suggesting the market is in active price discovery with neither side dominating. The high transaction count (12,772 in the first hour) with 2,201 unique buyers versus 1,660 unique sellers indicates more participants are entering than exiting, but the dollar volumes ($638,506 buys vs $625,111 sells) are nearly matched, meaning the price appreciation is being driven by thin liquidity rather than overwhelming net demand.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d):
Bullish
Medium-Term (30d):
Neutral

The short-term trend is technically an uptrend given the 307.6% price appreciation within the first hour of existence, but this is entirely a launch-pump phenomenon with no prior price history to contextualize it. There is no medium-term trend data available — the token has existed for only 1 hour — so the medium-term classification defaults to sideways as a placeholder reflecting the absence of directional evidence beyond the initial spike. Any 'trend' analysis here is severely limited by the 1-hour age of the token.

Momentum

Status:
Overbought

A 307.6% gain in a single hour on a meme token with $47,921 in liquidity is a textbook overbought condition. The near-perfectly balanced buy/sell pressure (50.5%/49.5%) suggests momentum is already stalling — the initial surge was driven by launch excitement, and without fresh catalysts or sustained net buying, mean reversion is the statistically likely outcome.

Volume Analysis

Buy 50.5%Sell 49.5%

Volume Trend: Stable

All volume data (24h, 4h, 1h) is identical because the token launched 1 hour ago — there is no volume trend to analyze across time windows. The $1.26M combined volume in a single hour against $47,921 liquidity is an extreme ratio that reflects speculative launch activity rather than organic trading depth. Volume trend will only become meaningful once the token has multiple hours or days of trading history.

Recent Price Action

Vertical launch pump: price appreciated 307.6% within the first hour of trading from a near-zero base, with the most recent 5-minute window showing an additional 27.9% move, suggesting the pump may still be in progress or experiencing a secondary wave.

Vertical launch pumps of this magnitude on meme tokens with thin liquidity almost universally precede sharp retracements. The 27.9% 5-minute move within an already 307.6% hourly gain indicates either continued momentum buying or volatility oscillation — both scenarios carry high downside risk for late entrants.

Holder Metrics

Total Holders992
24h Change+958
Growth Rate+97%

Growing from 34 to 992 holders in 1 hour reflects the viral launch mechanics of the Four.meme launchpad rather than sustained organic community growth. While the raw growth rate (97% increase in holder count) is impressive, it is entirely a function of launch-day activity and provides no predictive signal about holder retention or future growth trajectory.

Holder Distribution

Top 10 Holders23%
Top 100 Holders63%
Retail Holders37.0%
Concentration Risk:
Medium

The top 10 holders control 23% of supply, but the largest position (10.39%) is a protocol/contract that is not dumpable. Stripping that out, the dumpable supply from individual whales is 17.9% — a medium concentration risk. The top 100 holders controlling 63% is notable, but with 968 of 992 holders acquiring via swap, the distribution reflects genuine market participation. The primary concern is not concentration per se but the zero-cost-basis nature of the top whale positions.

Whale Activity

Sentiment:
Holding

The largest recorded on-chain swaps are modest in absolute dollar terms: the biggest single trade was a $344 sell by 0x3dbeea…, followed by a $199 buy and several sells in the $111–$136 range. These are retail-scale transactions, not institutional whale movements, suggesting the large holders classified as individual whales have not yet begun selling through DEX swaps.

  • •SELL $344 by 0x3dbeea… — largest single transaction recorded, still a retail-scale amount relative to the token's $230K market cap
  • •BUY $199 by 0xaaba22… — largest buy transaction, indicating some participants are still entering at current elevated prices

The absence of large DEX swap transactions from the top whale wallets (who hold 2.18%, 1.83%, 1.51% of supply via transfer) means they are currently holding. However, since these wallets have zero cost basis, any future sell decision requires no price threshold — they can exit profitably at any price, making their holding status a temporary rather than structural positive.

Smart Money Indicators

Confidence:
Low
Profit-Taking Risk:
High

Smart-money data is unavailable for this token. No profitable-trader cohort data exists in the available dataset.

Smart-money data is unavailable, so no conclusions can be drawn about early buyer positioning or profit-taking behavior from that cohort. The high profit-taking risk rating is derived from the structural fact that top whale wallets received supply via transfer at zero cost basis — any sale by these wallets is pure profit regardless of price level.

Liquidity Analysis

Total Liquidity$47,921
Depth:
Shallow
Slippage Risk:
High

With only $47,921 in total liquidity against a $230,285 market cap (a liquidity-to-market-cap ratio of ~20.8%), the token's price is extremely sensitive to order flow. The $1.26M in 1-hour trading volume represents over 26x the liquidity pool size, meaning the pool has been cycled many times over and price impact on any meaningful trade is severe. A sell order of even a few thousand dollars could move the price significantly downward.

Overall Risk:
Very High
91/100

Risk Breakdown

Volatility
High

A 307.6% price move in 1 hour on a token with $47,921 liquidity is extreme volatility by any measure. The thin liquidity pool means price can move violently in either direction with minimal order flow, and the launch-pump pattern historically precedes sharp retracements.

Liquidity
High

Total liquidity of $47,921 against $230,285 market cap and $1.26M in hourly volume creates severe slippage risk. Any position of meaningful size cannot be exited without significantly moving the price against the seller.

Concentration
Medium

Dumpable supply is 17.9% held by individual whale wallets, all of which acquired positions via transfer at zero cost basis. While the raw top-10 concentration (23%) is moderate and the largest holder is a non-dumpable protocol contract, the zero-cost-basis nature of insider holdings means the effective dump risk is higher than the percentage alone suggests.

Smart Contract
High

The contract is unverified with no published source code, making it impossible to audit for malicious functions. The deployer has zero prior deployment history and unknown funding — a profile consistent with disposable deployer patterns used in exit scams.

Regulatory
Medium

As a meme token on BNB Chain with no KYC, no registered entity, and no identifiable team, the token faces standard regulatory risks applicable to unregistered crypto assets in jurisdictions with active enforcement. The Chinese-language name may attract additional scrutiny in certain regulatory environments.

Key Risks

  • •Rug pull risk: unverified contract, deployer with no prior deployment history funded from unknown source, and insider wallets holding zero-cost-basis positions acquired via transfer — all three conditions for a potential exit scam are present simultaneously
  • •Launch pump reversion: the 307.6% price spike in 1 hour with near-perfectly balanced buy/sell pressure and thin $47,921 liquidity is structurally unsustainable; historical meme token patterns strongly suggest a sharp retracement is likely once initial momentum exhausts
  • •Zero fundamental support: no project description, no social presence, no verified contract, and no identifiable use case means the token's price is 100% dependent on speculative momentum with no floor from utility demand or community infrastructure

Mitigating Factors

  • •The deployer wallet is 443 days old rather than freshly created, which slightly reduces (but does not eliminate) the probability of an immediate same-day rug pull
  • •97.6% of holders acquired tokens via swap rather than airdrop, indicating genuine market participation and a distributed holder base that is not entirely composed of coordinated insiders

Investor Suitability

This token is suitable only for highly experienced crypto traders who specialize in meme token speculation, fully understand the mechanics of launch pumps, are prepared to lose 100% of any capital deployed, and are treating any position as a short-duration trade rather than an investment. It is entirely unsuitable for retail investors, long-term holders, or anyone who cannot afford to lose their entire position.

螃蟹效应 is a 1-hour-old meme token with no fundamentals, an unverified contract, and a classic launch-pump price profile. The investment thesis is purely speculative: either the momentum continues briefly and early traders extract profits before the inevitable retracement, or the token retraces immediately as insider wallets with zero cost basis begin distributing.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case
Low

The token achieves viral traction through Chinese-language crypto communities (consistent with its name), sustains trading volume beyond the initial launch hour, and the Four.meme launchpad listing drives continued retail inflows that push the market cap toward $1M+ before a natural consolidation phase.

  • +Viral social media spread in Chinese-language crypto communities driving sustained retail FOMO beyond the launch hour
  • +Continued absence of large insider sell transactions allowing price to hold above launch levels long enough to attract new buyers
Base Case

The token experiences a partial retracement of 50–70% from its launch-hour peak over the next 24–48 hours as initial excitement fades, stabilizing at a lower price level with reduced trading volume and a smaller but retained holder base, before gradually declining further without new catalysts.

  • •Insider wallets sell gradually rather than in a single coordinated dump, allowing for a slower but sustained price decline
  • •No viral social media event or exchange listing emerges to provide a secondary catalyst for price appreciation
Bear Case
High

Insider wallets with zero cost basis begin selling into the thin $47,921 liquidity pool, triggering a cascade of stop-losses and panic sells that retrace the price 80–95% from its peak within 24–48 hours — a pattern seen in the majority of Four.meme launch tokens.

  • -Zero-cost-basis insider whale wallets (holding 17.9% dumpable supply) begin distributing with no price floor constraint
  • -Thin liquidity amplifies sell pressure, causing rapid price collapse that triggers retail panic selling and holder exodus

Analysis Details

GeneratedJun 17, 2026, 09:01 AM UTC
Data FreshnessReal-time on-chain data as of analysis timestamp; token is 1 hour old
Model Confidence
Low

Data Snapshot

Price$0.000230775073667471
Market Cap$230.3K
24h Volume$1.26M
Holders992
Liquidity$47.9K

Data Sources

On-chain transaction data (BNB Chain)
Holder distribution analytics (Moralis)
Trading volume metrics (24h/4h/1h windows)
Token genesis and deployer wallet forensics
Whale wallet behavioral analysis
Notable recent on-chain swap data

Limitations

  • •Token is only 1 hour old — there is no OHLC price history, no multi-day trend data, and no baseline for any technical or on-chain trend analysis; all conclusions are based on structural and forensic signals rather than historical price behavior
  • •Smart-money profitable-trader cohort data is unavailable, preventing any assessment of whether sophisticated traders are accumulating or distributing
  • •The contract is unverified, making it impossible to assess for hidden malicious functions, fee structures, or ownership controls that could materially affect token behavior

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Track 螃蟹效应