萤火计划

萤火计划 Price Today & AI Analysis

萤火计划BNB ChainAnalysis as of Aug 15, 2026

Price

$0.055378

+0.39% 24h

Contract

Live
0xad5f5b2290ce3d9859f52e9585c553e191387777

Chain

BNB Chain

Holders

2.6K

Market cap

$5.38K

Liquidity

$3.72K

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萤火计划: holders, selling & liquidity

2026-08-15 08:17 UTC

Holder addresses

1,260

Top 10 supply share

Not available

Reported liquidity

$21,718.06
How concentrated is 萤火计划 ownership?
Top-10 ownership concentration is not available in this report. The saved holder count is 1,260 addresses (2026-08-15 08:17 UTC). A holder count alone does not establish how supply is distributed.
Are large holders selling 萤火计划?
This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. A complete buy/sell volume observation is not available in the saved inputs. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.
Is 萤火计划 liquidity falling?
As of 2026-08-15 08:17 UTC, reported liquidity was $21,718.06. At least two timestamped liquidity observations are needed to establish a change; this report does not have them.
Sources, observations & limitations

Source: inputs saved with the report generated 2026-08-15 08:17 UTC. Original provider retrieval times and historical samples were not recorded. Legacy zero placeholders are treated as unavailable. Holder addresses are not unique people. The provider’s top-10 share is not adjusted here for pools, exchanges, burn addresses or related wallets. Sniper classifications and wallet-level holder history are unavailable. Inspect token on the block explorer.

Recent swap evidence

Swap evidence is unavailable for this report.

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Movement since report

report from Aug 15, 2026, 08:17 AM UTC

Market Cap

$58.23K

24h Volume

$241.52K

Liquidity

$21.72K

FDV

—

Holders

1,260

24h

Loading trading activity…

AI Executive Summary

Risk

Very high

Sentiment

Bearish

萤火计划 (contract 0xad5f5b…) is a BNB Chain token launched approximately 7 hours ago with a market cap of $58,233 and $21,718 in liquidity. The token has no verified contract, no project description, no social presence, and no disclosed use case, placing it firmly in the highest-risk category of unidentified micro-cap launches. Its first hour of trading saw a -65.87% price collapse followed by a partial recovery, and forensic analysis of top whale wallets confirms that multiple large holders received their supply via pre-launch transfers rather than open-market purchases. The combination of insider pre-distribution, an unlabelled deployer funding source, and a 57/100 security score makes this token a very high-risk instrument with characteristics consistent with speculative or exit-scam launches.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Aug 15, 2026, 08:17 AM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Key points

  • Extreme intra-hour volatility: -65.87% within the first hour of trading followed by a +19.09% partial recovery, indicating highly manipulated or illiquid price action
  • Confirmed insider pre-distribution: three of the top individual whales hold positions acquired via transfer/airdrop with no DEX swap history, and the deployer distributed supply to multiple wallets at genesis
  • Zero project transparency: no contract verification, no description, no social links, and no category classification — the token is entirely anonymous at launch

萤火计划 AI Price Analysis

Low Confidence

Short-Term · 24h-7d

Bearish

At just 7 hours old, this token has already experienced a -65.87% crash within the first hour of trading, followed by a partial recovery of +19.09% over the 4h/24h window — a classic pump-and-dump volatility signature. The 5-minute reading of -35.88% confirms ongoing violent price swings with no stabilization. Given the absence of any verified contract, no project description, and multiple insider-allocation red flags, downward pressure is the dominant short-term trajectory.

Medium-Term · 30d-90d

Bearish

With no project description, no social presence, an unverified contract, a deployer funded by an unlabelled wallet, and multiple top whales holding positions acquired via transfer rather than market buys, the medium-term outlook is structurally bearish. Tokens of this profile — anonymous, undescribed, launched with pre-distributed insider allocations — overwhelmingly fail to sustain value beyond the initial trading window. Unless a credible team, use case, or community emerges, continued price erosion toward near-zero is the most probable medium-term outcome.

Bullish Factors

  • Buy transactions outnumber sell transactions 1,387 to 893 over the 4h/24h window, with 756 unique buyers versus 389 unique sellers, indicating more participants are entering than exiting at current prices.
  • The 4h/24h price recovery of +19.09% from what appears to be a post-launch low demonstrates some demand absorption after the initial -65.87% crash.
  • The top holder (18.61%) is classified as a protocol/contract rather than a dumpable individual whale, meaning the largest single position is not an immediate sell-side threat.

Bearish Factors

  • The token crashed -65.87% within its first hour of existence — an extreme early-stage dump that signals either a coordinated sell-off by insiders or a failed launch with no sustained demand.
  • Three of the top individual whales (3.81%, 2.09%, 2.00% of supply) acquired their positions via transfer or airdrop with no DEX swap history, confirming insider pre-distribution rather than organic market accumulation.
  • The deployer wallet (0xe2ce6ab8…) was funded by an unlabelled wallet (0x4deaae93…) and made zero contract deployments in its first 100 transactions, fitting a disposable-deployer pattern associated with elevated rug risk.
  • The contract is unverified, there is no project description, no social links, and the token has no category — the complete absence of project fundamentals removes any basis for long-term value retention.
  • 291 of 1,260 holders (23%) acquired tokens via airdrop, suggesting a significant portion of the holder base received free supply and faces zero cost basis, creating persistent sell-side pressure.

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

萤火计划 call history

Full track record →

Aug 15bearish
24h-19.8%
7d—
30d-88.1%

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

Chain
BNB Chain
Contract
0xad5f...7777
Total Supply
—
Decimals
—

Key Risks

  • Rug pull risk: the unverified contract, deployer funded by an unlabelled wallet, pre-distributed insider supply at genesis, and shallow $21,718 liquidity pool collectively create conditions where the deployer or insiders could drain liquidity or dump holdings with minimal friction
  • Zero-cost-basis insider selling: three confirmed top whale wallets acquired their positions (3.81%, 2.09%, 2.00% of supply) via transfer/airdrop with no market purchases — these holders can sell at any price and still profit, creating persistent downward pressure with no natural price floor
  • Complete information vacuum: with no contract verification, no project description, no social links, and no team disclosure, investors have no basis for due diligence — any investment decision is made in the absence of material information

Trading Insight

bearish

Despite a near-even buy/sell volume split (50.2% buy vs 49.8% sell), the token's price action tells a bearish story: a -65.87% crash in the first hour followed by a modest recovery does not constitute healthy price discovery. The largest recent on-chain swaps are all sells, ranging from $127 to $288, suggesting that the most active large participants are exiting rather than accumulating.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d)

Bearish

Medium-Term (30d)

Bearish

With only 7 hours of price history and no OHLC data available, trend analysis is limited to the intraday price performance windows. The -65.87% 1-hour reading establishes a severe downtrend from the launch peak, and while the +19.09% 4h/24h recovery partially offsets this, the current price remains far below where early buyers entered. The 5-minute reading of -35.88% confirms the downtrend is still active with no stabilization.

Momentum

Status

Oversold

A -65.87% intra-hour decline followed by a -35.88% 5-minute reading suggests the token is in a deeply oversold condition relative to its launch price. However, in the context of a token with confirmed insider pre-distribution and no fundamentals, 'oversold' does not reliably signal a reversal — it may simply reflect the natural price discovery process toward a lower equilibrium or zero.

Volume Analysis

Buy

50.2%

Sell

49.8%

Volume Trend

Stable

All $241,521 in combined volume occurred within a 4-hour window on a 7-hour-old token, making trend assessment impossible. The volume-to-market-cap ratio of ~4.1x is characteristic of speculative micro-cap churn. Buy and sell volumes are nearly equal ($121,308 vs $120,213), but the top notable trades are exclusively sells, suggesting larger participants are net sellers while smaller retail buyers are providing the buy-side volume.

Recent Price Action

Violent launch-day dump followed by partial recovery: the token experienced a -65.87% collapse within its first hour, then recovered +19.09% over the subsequent 4-hour window, with a fresh -35.88% move in the most recent 5 minutes indicating the recovery has stalled or reversed.

This pattern — sharp post-launch dump, brief recovery, renewed selling — is commonly associated with tokens where insiders or early recipients sell into initial retail buying interest. The inability to sustain the recovery and the renewed 5-minute decline suggest sell-side pressure from pre-distributed holders continues to dominate.

AI overall risk

Very high

Risk Score

88/100

Risk Breakdown

  • VolatilityHigh

    A -65.87% price collapse within the first hour of trading, followed by a -35.88% move in the most recent 5-minute window, demonstrates extreme volatility that is orders of magnitude beyond typical crypto market risk. At this volatility level, position sizing and stop-loss management are nearly impossible.

  • LiquidityHigh

    Total liquidity of $21,718 against a $58,233 market cap creates a shallow pool where even modest sell orders from whale wallets (19.4% dumpable supply worth ~$11,297 at current prices) could cause catastrophic slippage. Exiting a meaningful position without severe price impact is not feasible.

  • ConcentrationNot assessed

    Ownership concentration cannot be assessed without a measured supply distribution.

  • Smart ContractNot assessed

    Contract or authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations.

  • RegulatoryMedium

    As an anonymous, uncategorized token on BNB Chain with no disclosed jurisdiction or team, this token faces the standard regulatory uncertainty applicable to all unregistered crypto assets. The Chinese-language name may attract additional scrutiny in jurisdictions with crypto restrictions, though no specific regulatory action is indicated by the available data.

Key Risks

  • Rug pull risk: the unverified contract, deployer funded by an unlabelled wallet, pre-distributed insider supply at genesis, and shallow $21,718 liquidity pool collectively create conditions where the deployer or insiders could drain liquidity or dump holdings with minimal friction
  • Zero-cost-basis insider selling: three confirmed top whale wallets acquired their positions (3.81%, 2.09%, 2.00% of supply) via transfer/airdrop with no market purchases — these holders can sell at any price and still profit, creating persistent downward pressure with no natural price floor
  • Complete information vacuum: with no contract verification, no project description, no social links, and no team disclosure, investors have no basis for due diligence — any investment decision is made in the absence of material information

Mitigating Factors

  • The 18.61% top holder is a protocol/contract rather than a dumpable individual wallet, meaning the largest single supply concentration is not an immediate sell-side threat
  • The deployer wallet has 775 days of on-chain history (active since July 2024), which is marginally more credible than a freshly created throwaway wallet, though this alone does not offset the other risk factors

Investor Suitability

This token is suitable only for highly experienced crypto traders who fully understand the risks of sub-$100K market cap tokens with unverified contracts, can afford to lose 100% of any capital deployed, and are treating any position as a high-risk speculative trade with no fundamental basis. It is not suitable for retail investors, risk-averse participants, or anyone allocating meaningful portfolio capital.

萤火计划 presents no identifiable investment thesis based on fundamentals — it is a 7-hour-old anonymous token with an unverified contract, no project description, confirmed insider pre-distribution, and a history of extreme intra-hour price volatility. Any participation is purely speculative, with the bear case (continued decline toward zero) being structurally more probable than the bull case given the available evidence.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

The token's Chinese-language branding attracts a specific community, the team reveals a legitimate project with verifiable utility, the contract is verified and passes a security audit, and the 1,387 buy transactions in the first 4 hours represent genuine organic demand that sustains price above current levels.

  • Contract verification and security audit that resolves the 57/100 security score and builds buyer confidence
  • Emergence of a credible project team with a disclosed roadmap and active social community channels

Base Case

The token experiences continued high volatility over the next 24-72 hours as initial speculative interest fades, holder count stabilizes or declines as airdrop recipients and zero-cost-basis whales exit, and price drifts lower toward the lower bound of the current liquidity range without a complete collapse — unless a triggering event (large whale exit or liquidity removal) accelerates the decline.

  • No project fundamentals emerge to justify sustained buying interest beyond initial speculative trading
  • The deployer does not remove liquidity in the near term, allowing gradual price discovery rather than an immediate rug

Bear Case

High probability

Insider wallets with zero-cost-basis positions (19.4% dumpable supply) continue selling into retail buy pressure, the shallow $21,718 liquidity pool is progressively drained, and the token follows the typical trajectory of anonymous unverified launches toward near-zero value within days to weeks.

  • Three confirmed top whale wallets holding transfer/airdrop-acquired positions with no DEX buy history, facing zero cost basis and maximum incentive to sell
  • Unverified contract with unknown functions, combined with a deployer funded by an unlabelled wallet, enabling potential liquidity drain or hidden exit mechanisms

Analysis Details

Generated

Aug 15, 2026, 08:17 AM UTC

Saved observation

2026-08-15 08:17 UTC

Model Confidence

Low

Data Snapshot

Price

$0.000058376624967695

Market Cap

$58.2K

24h Volume

$241.5K

Holders

1,260

Liquidity

$21,718.06

Data Sources

On-chain transaction data (BNB Chain)Holder distribution analytics (Moralis holder tiers)Trading volume metrics (24h and 4h windows)Smart contract security assessment (57/100 score)Token genesis and deployer wallet forensicsWhale wallet behavioral analysis (DEX swap history lookup)Notable recent trade data (largest on-chain swaps)

Limitations

  • No OHLC price history exists for this 7-hour-old token, making all technical analysis (support/resistance, trend confirmation, momentum indicators) impossible to compute from historical data
  • The unverified contract means smart contract risk cannot be fully assessed — hidden functions, tax mechanisms, or backdoors may exist that are not visible from on-chain transaction data alone
  • Smart-money (profitable-trader cohort) data is unavailable for this token, removing one layer of market intelligence
  • The token has no disclosed project information, making fundamental analysis impossible — all conclusions are based solely on on-chain behavioral and structural data

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Questions about 萤火计划?