AST

ast.fun Price Today & AI Analysis

AST
BNB Chain·AI Analysis
Analysis as of Aug 29, 2026

$0.000164

+1.64%24h
LiveContract:0x265b3982ea730748100947f52561a4eab54affffChain:BNB ChainHolders:1.9KMarket cap:$163.83KLiquidity:$22.28K

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Ask Unhosted AI about AST

What's Twitter saying?

Sentiment, KOL mentions, top tweets

Whale activity

Who is accumulating or distributing

What are the risks?

Red flags, security, concentration

Should I buy?

Bull case, bear case, entry / exit

Movement since reportreport from Aug 29, 2026, 02:45 PM UTC
Market Cap

$181.31K

24h Volume

$3.21M

Liquidity

$46.92K

FDV

—

Holders

2.0K

Security

—

24H0 buys
0 sells0 traders

Holder Insights

Live

Total holders

—

24h change

0

Top 10 hold

—

Top acquisition

—

—

AI Executive Summary

AST (ast.fun) is a 24-hour-old token on BNB Chain, described as 'memecoins paired with leveraged positions' powered by the Aster platform. It launched with explosive activity — over 43,000 transactions and $3.2M in combined volume in its first day — but the price has since retreated sharply from a session high of $0.0009619 to $0.0001813, sitting at just 18% of its launch range. The token carries significant structural risks: an unverified contract, a disposable-deployer profile, insider genesis allocations to wallets that have already taken profit, and thin liquidity of under $47,000. While the trading volume and holder count demonstrate genuine market interest, the token is firmly in speculative territory with a very high risk profile.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Aug 29, 2026, 02:45 PM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Risk: very_high
Sentiment: bearish
Concept of pairing memecoins with leveraged positions via the Aster platform on BNB Chain — a niche that blends speculative meme culture with derivatives mechanics
Exceptionally high launch-day trading velocity: 43,317 transactions from 13,062 unique participants within 24 hours, indicating viral initial distribution
Insider genesis allocation pattern: at least four wallets received direct token transfers from the deployer proxy before public trading, with two of those wallets appearing among the top smart-money earners

ast.fun AI Price Analysis

Low Confidence
Short-Term24h-7d
Bearish

AST is only 24 hours old and has already shed 14% in the past 4 hours after an initial launch spike that pushed the price to a session high of $0.0009619. The current price of $0.0001813 sits at just 18% of the 2-day range, indicating the token has given back the vast majority of its launch-day gains and is trending toward the range floor. With notable recent trades dominated entirely by sells and the 1-hour and 4-hour windows both deeply negative, short-term momentum is clearly to the downside.

Medium-Term30d-90d
Bearish

With only 2 days of price history, no 7d/30d/90d trend data, an unverified contract, a deployer wallet just 11 days old with no prior deployments, and insider-allocated supply visible in the genesis transfers, the medium-term outlook is bearish. The token's survival beyond the initial hype window will depend entirely on whether the Aster platform delivers real utility and whether the team sustains liquidity — neither of which is evidenced yet. The 25.3% dumpable supply held by individual whales represents a persistent overhead selling risk.

Bullish Factors
  • +Exceptional launch-day trading activity: 43,317 total transactions (23,430 buys vs 19,887 sells) from 6,775 unique buyers signals broad initial market interest
  • +Smart money traders have realized significant profits — 0x5a7168 booked +$7,016 (+181%) and 0x8bf1a8 booked +$5,549 (+1,572%) — confirming that early participants found genuine exit liquidity
  • +Buy pressure remains marginally dominant at 50.2% of 24h volume ($1.61M buys vs $1.60M sells), indicating the market has not yet tipped into net distribution
  • +Holder base of 2,007 wallets accumulated entirely through market swaps (2,004 of 2,007 via swap) in a single day, suggesting organic demand rather than airdrop inflation
Bearish Factors
  • -Price has collapsed 14.2% in the past 4 hours and 5.3% in the past hour, with the current price at only 18% of the 2-day range ($0.00001389–$0.0009619), indicating the post-launch pump has largely unwound
  • -All six of the largest recent on-chain swaps are sells (ranging from $92 to $347), with no significant buy-side whale transactions visible in the notable trades data
  • -Genesis transfers reveal that 0x5c9520 distributed ~197M tokens (19.7% of supply) directly to four wallets — including 0x5a7168 and 0x01bbfd, who are also top smart-money earners — before any public trading, creating an insider allocation that has already been partially monetized
  • -The deployer wallet (0x90a0f259) is only 11 days old, has zero prior contract deployments, and was funded by an unknown source — a classic disposable-deployer pattern associated with elevated rug risk
  • -Two of the top individual whale wallets (0xfe7355 at 2.14% and 0xa28f40 at 2.10%) acquired their positions via transfer rather than market buys, meaning they received supply at zero cost and face no loss threshold before selling
  • -Total liquidity of $46,917 against a $181,312 market cap yields a liquidity-to-mcap ratio of ~26%, meaning even modest sell pressure can cause severe slippage

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

AST call history

Full track record →
Aug 29bearish
24hpending
7dpending
30dpending

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

ChainBNB Chain
Contract0x265b...ffff
Total Supply—
Decimals—

Key Risks

•Insider exit risk: Genesis allocations to 0x5a7168 and 0x01bbfd (who have already realized $7,016 and $4,667 respectively) and two zero-cost-basis whale wallets (0xfe7355, 0xa28f40) holding 4.24% of supply via transfer create a structural overhang of supply that was never purchased at market prices
•Rug/abandonment risk: The deployer's 11-day-old wallet with zero prior deployments and unknown funding source is a textbook disposable-deployer pattern; if the team abandons the project, the unverified contract provides no on-chain recourse for holders
•Liquidity collapse risk: With only $46,917 in liquidity and dumpable supply nearly equal to pool size, a coordinated exit by 2-3 whale wallets could drain liquidity entirely, leaving remaining holders unable to exit at any meaningful price

Trading Insight

bearish

Despite marginally positive 24h buy pressure (50.2%), the intraday trend has turned decisively bearish with the 4-hour window down 14.2% and the 1-hour window down 5.3%. The recent notable trades are exclusively sells, and the ratio of sell transactions to buy transactions has been improving for sellers in the shorter windows (459 sells vs 743 buys in 4h, 191 sells vs 378 buys in 1h), suggesting the initial buyer cohort is rotating out.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d):
Bearish
Medium-Term (30d):
Bearish

With only two daily closes available ($0.0001540 on day 1, $0.0001813 on day 2), the token shows a modest day-over-day uptick of +17.7% in closing price, but the intraday structure tells a different story: the session high of $0.0009619 has been followed by a sustained decline to $0.0001813, placing the current price at just 18% of the full 2-day range. The 4-hour (-14.2%) and 1-hour (-5.3%) price changes confirm active downward momentum. No 7d, 30d, or 90d trend data exists given the token's age.

Momentum

Status:
Oversold

The token has declined approximately 81% from its 2-day high of $0.0009619 to the current $0.0001813, and the pace of decline is accelerating in shorter timeframes (-8.2% in 5 minutes, -5.3% in 1 hour, -14.2% in 4 hours). While this magnitude of drawdown from a launch spike can create short-term oversold bounces, the structural bearish factors (insider selling, thin liquidity, unverified contract) mean oversold conditions alone are not a reliable buy signal here.

Volume Analysis

Buy 50.2%Sell 49.8%

Volume Trend: Decreasing

Launch-day volume of $3.2M combined (17x+ the market cap) is characteristic of a viral memecoin debut. The 4-hour transaction count of 1,202 represents roughly 2.8% of the 24-hour total, implying a sharp deceleration from the launch peak. Declining volume alongside declining price is a bearish continuation signal, as it suggests the buyer base is exhausting rather than accumulating.

Recent Price Action

Post-launch spike and sustained retracement: price surged to $0.0009619 at or near launch, then declined continuously to the current $0.0001813 — an 81% drawdown from peak within 24 hours. The two daily closes ($0.0001540 → $0.0001813) suggest the token found a temporary floor near $0.000139 (the 2-day low) before stabilizing, but intraday momentum remains negative.

This pattern — sharp launch spike followed by rapid mean reversion — is the canonical memecoin launch trajectory. It typically indicates that early/insider holders used the initial hype to distribute supply to retail buyers. Stabilization above the range low ($0.00001389) would be the first prerequisite for any recovery thesis.

Holder Metrics

Total Holders2,007
24h Change+2,007
Growth Rate+100%

All 2,007 holders were acquired in the token's first 24 hours, which is the expected baseline for a newly launched token — the 100% growth figure is not analytically meaningful beyond confirming the launch date. The more relevant signal is the acquisition method: 2,004 of 2,007 holders obtained tokens via swap (market purchase), indicating organic demand rather than airdrop-driven inflation. Whether this holder base grows, stabilizes, or contracts in the coming days will be the key metric to watch.

Holder Distribution

Top 10 Holders31%
Top 100 Holders74%
Retail Holders26.0%
Concentration Risk:
Medium

The top 10 holders control 31% of supply, but the largest single position (12.96%) is a protocol/contract wallet that is not a dumpable risk. The remaining 9 individual whales in the top 10 hold approximately 18.4% collectively. The genuine dump risk — dumpable supply of 25.3% — is meaningful but not extreme for a memecoin. The top 100 controlling 74% with only 26% in retail hands reflects a typical early-stage concentration pattern where large wallets dominate before broader distribution occurs.

Whale Activity

Sentiment:
Distributing

All six of the largest recent on-chain swaps are sells, ranging from $92 to $347 (0x42ef8f: $347 sell, 0x3868a4: $345 sell, 0xc93bae: $150 sell, 0x9abf0b: $110 and $92 sell, 0xfffb04: $107 sell). These are relatively small in absolute dollar terms but confirm that the directional bias among active large traders is to exit.

  • •SELL $347 by 0x42ef8f — largest single recent swap, sell-side
  • •SELL $345 by 0x3868a4 — second largest recent swap, sell-side; combined top-2 sells represent $692 in exit pressure

The exclusive sell-side bias in notable recent trades, combined with two zero-cost-basis whale wallets (0xfe7355 and 0xa28f40) holding 4.24% of supply via transfer, points to a distributing whale environment. The top whale by size (0x379e42) is currently underwater at an average buy of $0.0002568 vs current $0.0001813, which may incentivize holding for recovery or capitulation selling — either outcome adds uncertainty.

Smart Money Indicators

Confidence:
Medium
Profit-Taking Risk:
High

Multiple smart money wallets have already realized significant profits: 0x5a7168 (+$7,016, +181%), 0x8bf1a8 (+$5,549, +1,572%), 0x798c9c (+$5,283, +464%), 0x01bbfd (+$4,667, +788%), 0xebd751 (+$4,496, +1,306%), and 0x150952 (+$3,555, +430%). Critically, 0x5a7168 and 0x01bbfd received genesis allocations directly from the deployer proxy, meaning their extraordinary returns were built on zero-cost insider supply.

The smart money data reveals a two-tier structure: insider-allocated wallets (0x5a7168, 0x01bbfd) that received free supply and have already booked large profits, and market-entry smart money (0x8bf1a8, 0x798c9c, 0xebd751, 0x150952) that timed the launch spike effectively. The high realized PnL percentages (up to +1,572%) confirm the launch spike was real and tradeable, but the fact that these profits have already been taken means the primary smart-money exit has likely occurred, reducing the probability of a second smart-money-driven rally.

Liquidity Analysis

Total Liquidity$46,917
Depth:
Shallow
Slippage Risk:
High

At $46,917 in total liquidity against a $181,312 market cap, the liquidity-to-market-cap ratio is approximately 25.9%. This is dangerously thin: the dumpable supply of 25.3% (~$45,850 at current prices) is nearly equal to total liquidity, meaning a coordinated exit by individual whale holders could drain the pool entirely. Any trade above a few hundred dollars will incur meaningful slippage, as evidenced by the largest recent swaps being only $347 — traders are already sizing positions to manage slippage impact.

Overall Risk:
Very High
88/100

Risk Breakdown

Volatility
High

The token has already demonstrated an ~81% drawdown from its 2-day high ($0.0009619) to current price ($0.0001813) within 24 hours, with a 2-day range spanning from $0.00001389 to $0.0009619 — a 69x spread. This extreme intraday volatility makes position sizing and risk management extremely difficult.

Liquidity
High

Total liquidity of $46,917 is shallow relative to the $181,312 market cap (25.9% ratio). The dumpable supply of 25.3% (~$45,850) nearly equals total pool liquidity, meaning whale exits could cause catastrophic price impact. Trades above a few hundred dollars face significant slippage.

Concentration
Medium

Dumpable supply of 25.3% held by individual whales is the genuine concentration risk — not the raw 31% top-10 figure, which includes a 12.96% protocol/contract position. Two whale wallets (4.24% combined) hold zero-cost-basis positions acquired via transfer, representing pure overhead selling pressure with no loss threshold.

Smart Contract
High

The contract is unverified, preventing independent audit of the code. The deployer is an 11-day-old wallet with no prior deployments and unknown funding — a disposable-deployer profile. Without source code verification, risks including hidden mint functions, ownership backdoors, or fee manipulation cannot be ruled out.

Regulatory
Medium

As an uncategorized token on BNB Chain with a leveraged-memecoin concept, AST may attract regulatory scrutiny in jurisdictions that classify leveraged crypto products as securities or derivatives. The anonymous team structure adds regulatory uncertainty.

Key Risks

  • •Insider exit risk: Genesis allocations to 0x5a7168 and 0x01bbfd (who have already realized $7,016 and $4,667 respectively) and two zero-cost-basis whale wallets (0xfe7355, 0xa28f40) holding 4.24% of supply via transfer create a structural overhang of supply that was never purchased at market prices
  • •Rug/abandonment risk: The deployer's 11-day-old wallet with zero prior deployments and unknown funding source is a textbook disposable-deployer pattern; if the team abandons the project, the unverified contract provides no on-chain recourse for holders
  • •Liquidity collapse risk: With only $46,917 in liquidity and dumpable supply nearly equal to pool size, a coordinated exit by 2-3 whale wallets could drain liquidity entirely, leaving remaining holders unable to exit at any meaningful price

Mitigating Factors

  • •The 75/100 security score and the absence of honeypot flags in automated scanning suggest the contract does not contain the most obvious malicious mechanics
  • •High launch-day trading volume ($3.2M) and 2,007 organic swap-acquired holders demonstrate genuine market interest that could sustain a community if the platform delivers

Investor Suitability

This token is suitable only for highly experienced crypto traders who specialize in high-risk, short-duration memecoin speculation, can afford to lose their entire position, and have the technical skills to monitor on-chain activity in real time. It is not suitable for long-term investors, risk-averse individuals, or anyone allocating more than a negligible fraction of their portfolio.

AST presents a high-risk, high-volatility speculative opportunity built on the Aster platform's memecoin-leveraged-position concept. The token has demonstrated real market demand in its first 24 hours but carries severe structural risks including insider allocations, an unverified contract, a disposable-deployer profile, and thin liquidity. The investment thesis hinges entirely on whether the Aster platform delivers a functional product and whether the team maintains liquidity and transparency.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case
Low

The Aster platform launches a working product that genuinely pairs memecoin speculation with leveraged positions, attracting a sustained user base on BNB Chain. The team verifies the contract, builds community credibility, and the 2,007-holder base grows organically. Price recovers from the current 18%-of-range position toward the mid-range, representing a potential 3-5x from current levels.

  • +Verified, audited smart contract that demonstrates no malicious mechanics and builds institutional confidence
  • +Aster platform product launch with demonstrable user traction and trading volume on the leveraged memecoin mechanism
Base Case

AST follows the typical memecoin trajectory: high initial excitement fades, volume decelerates, price stabilizes at a fraction of the launch high (likely in the $0.00005–$0.00015 range), and the token persists as a low-liquidity speculative asset with a small but stable holder base. The Aster platform may launch eventually but fails to achieve mainstream traction.

  • •The contract does not contain malicious mechanics and the team does not execute an outright rug pull
  • •Liquidity remains above a minimum functional threshold ($10,000–$20,000) as the team has an incentive to maintain the trading environment
Bear Case
High

The deployer and insider-allocated wallets continue distributing their zero-cost-basis supply into any price recovery, liquidity drains below a functional threshold, and the token enters a death spiral toward the 2-day low of $0.00001389 or lower. The unverified contract is abandoned or exploited, leaving holders with illiquid, near-worthless positions.

  • -Continued sell pressure from the 25.3% dumpable supply, particularly the zero-cost-basis whale wallets that have no financial incentive to hold
  • -Failure to verify the contract or deliver a working product within the critical first-week attention window, causing holder attrition and volume collapse

Analysis Details

GeneratedAug 29, 2026, 02:45 PM UTC
Data FreshnessReal-time on-chain data as of analysis timestamp
Model Confidence
Low

Data Snapshot

Price$0.000181254225374572
Market Cap$181.3K
24h Volume$3.21M
Holders2,007
Liquidity$46.9K

Data Sources

On-chain transaction data (BNB Chain)
Holder distribution analytics (Moralis)
Trading volume metrics (24h, 4h, 1h windows)
Smart contract deployment and genesis transfer forensics
Whale wallet behavioral analysis
Smart money realized PnL data
Daily OHLC price history (2-day window)

Limitations

  • •Only 2 days of price history are available, making trend analysis and price target derivation statistically unreliable — no 7d, 30d, or 90d trend data exists
  • •The contract is unverified, preventing direct code audit; all security assessments are based on behavioral and metadata signals rather than source code review
  • •No independent verification of the Aster platform's product claims, team identity, or roadmap is possible from on-chain data alone

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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