toby

toby Price Today & AI Analysis

tobyBaseAnalysis as of Aug 4, 2026

Price

$0.071000

+2.86% 24h

Contract

Live
0xb8d98a102b0079b69ffbc760c8d857a31653e56e

Chain

Base

Holders

1.49M

Market cap

$3.78M

Liquidity

$93.18K

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What's Twitter saying?Sentiment, KOL mentions, top tweetsWhale activityWho is accumulating or distributingWhat are the risks?Red flags, security, concentrationShould I buy?Bull case, bear case, entry / exit

Movement since report

report from Aug 4, 2026, 09:45 PM UTC

Market Cap

$2.41M

24h Volume

$22.40K

Liquidity

$4.61K

FDV

—

Holders

1.5M

24h

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AI Executive Summary

Risk

Very high

Sentiment

Bearish

TABOSHI is a 28.6-month-old meme token on Base, originally airdropped to the broader Base community, with a current market cap of approximately $2.4M and a fully diluted valuation of $2.67M against a total supply of 420 trillion tokens. The token experienced a violent price spike to $1,590.83 within its recent trading history before collapsing 99.8% over 7 days to the current $3.49, a pattern consistent with a coordinated pump-and-dump event. Despite holding over 1.49 million wallet addresses — largely from the airdrop — active trading has effectively ceased, with zero transactions in the past 4 hours and liquidity of only $4,611 making the token highly illiquid. The combination of extreme post-spike selling pressure, near-zero liquidity, and insider-allocated whale positions makes this a very high-risk asset with no clear recovery catalyst.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Aug 4, 2026, 09:45 PM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Key points

  • Airdropped to the entire Base community, resulting in an unusually large holder count of 1.49M for a sub-$3M market cap token
  • Experienced one of the most extreme single-period price spikes in its history ($1,590.83 close) followed by a near-total collapse — a textbook pump-and-dump price signature
  • 64% of holders acquired tokens via airdrop rather than market purchase, meaning the majority of holders have zero cost basis and face no loss from selling at any price

toby AI Price Analysis

Low Confidence

Short-Term · 24h-7d

Bearish

TABOSHI has collapsed 99.8% over the past 7 days from a peak close of $1,590.83 to the current $3.49, placing it at the absolute bottom of its 31-day range. The 4-hour and 1-hour transaction counts are both zero, indicating trading has effectively halted — a hallmark of post-pump abandonment. With sell pressure at 92.3% of 24h volume and the largest recent trades all being sells, the path of least resistance remains downward toward the $0.54 floor.

Medium-Term · 30d-90d

Bearish

The 30-day trend of -50.9% and the catastrophic 7-day collapse of -99.8% establish a firmly bearish medium-term structure with no technical base yet formed. The token's entire price history shows a single violent spike to $1,590.83 followed by near-total reversion — a classic pump-and-dump pattern that rarely produces sustained recoveries. Without a meaningful catalyst, renewed liquidity injection, or a credible use-case development, the token is likely to drift toward or below the $0.54 support level over the next 30–90 days.

Bullish Factors

  • Massive airdrop distribution to 954,223 wallets across the Base community creates a large latent holder base that could re-engage if sentiment shifts
  • Total holder count of 1,491,134 is unusually large for a $2.4M market-cap meme token, providing a broad potential audience for any future rally
  • The contract is verified and the token is 28.6 months old, suggesting it has survived longer than most meme tokens of its type

Bearish Factors

  • Price has collapsed 99.8% in 7 days from the $1,590.83 peak close, with the current price of $3.49 sitting at 0% of the 31-day range — the weakest possible position
  • Sell pressure accounts for 92.3% of 24h volume ($20,683 sells vs. $1,718 buys), and all six notable recent trades are predominantly sells with the largest being only $31 — indicating no meaningful buy-side interest
  • Total liquidity is only $4,611, meaning even a modest sell order of a few hundred dollars will cause severe slippage and accelerate price decline
  • Zero transactions in both the 1-hour and 4-hour windows signal that active trading has ceased entirely, a strong indicator of post-pump abandonment
  • The largest individual whale (10% of supply, wallet 0xdaaf02) received its position via transfer/airdrop on launch day (2024-03-15), not through market buys — this is a classic insider allocation that represents a persistent overhead sell risk

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

toby call history

Full track record →

Aug 4bearish
24h-100.0%
7d-100.0%
30d-100.0%

Calls are recorded the moment the analysis is generated and scored automatically against the market price 24h, 7d and 30d later — hits and misses alike, never edited.

Token Info

Chain
Base
Contract
0xb8d9...e56e
Total Supply
—
Decimals
—

Key Risks

  • The 10% whale wallet (0xdaaf02) was activated 32 seconds after contract creation and received its position via transfer/airdrop with no DEX trading history — this is a strong insider allocation signal, and a single sell decision from this wallet could eliminate a significant portion of the remaining liquidity pool
  • With only $4,611 in liquidity, the token's $2.4M market cap is almost entirely theoretical; any attempt by holders with positions above ~$500 to exit will result in catastrophic slippage, effectively trapping capital
  • The blow-off top price pattern ($1,590.83 peak followed by 99.8% collapse in 7 days) with 92.3% sell pressure and zero recent buy-side activity is consistent with a coordinated pump-and-dump, suggesting the token may have been deliberately manipulated and the current price may not represent a genuine floor

Trading Insight

bearish

Market sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish, with sell pressure comprising 92.3% of 24-hour volume and the buy-to-sell transaction ratio nearly even (38 buys vs. 42 sells) yet buy volume representing only 7.7% of total volume — indicating that sellers are transacting in far larger sizes than buyers. The complete absence of transactions in the past 4 hours suggests the selling wave has exhausted itself, but this is more likely post-pump abandonment than stabilization.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d)

Bearish

Medium-Term (30d)

Bearish

Both the 7-day (-99.8%) and 30-day (-50.9%) trends confirm a severe and sustained downtrend across all measured timeframes. The daily OHLC sequence — $115.37, $647.88, $876.41, $1,590.83 (peak), then $6.91, $7.47, $6.98, $3.49 — shows a classic blow-off top followed by a near-complete reversion, with the current price sitting at 0% of the 31-day range. There is no technical evidence of trend reversal or base formation at current levels.

Momentum

Status

Oversold

After a 99.8% collapse from the $1,590.83 peak, the token is deeply oversold on any standard momentum measure. However, oversold conditions in post-pump meme tokens frequently persist for extended periods or resolve through continued decline rather than recovery, as the structural selling pressure from zero-cost-basis airdrop holders is not sensitive to price levels.

Volume Analysis

Buy

7.7%

Sell

92.3%

Volume Trend

Decreasing

Volume has collapsed to near-zero in the most recent 4-hour window after the 24-hour sell-off, consistent with liquidity exhaustion following a pump-and-dump cycle. The $22,400 total 24h volume against $4,611 in liquidity suggests the pool has been heavily drained, and the absence of new buy-side volume indicates no fresh capital is entering the token.

Recent Price Action

Blow-off top followed by near-complete reversion: price spiked from sub-$10 levels to $1,590.83 over approximately 7 days before collapsing back to $3.49 across the subsequent 7 daily closes, with the sequence $6.91 → $62.27 → $7.47 → $7.02 → $6.98 → $6.70 → $3.49 showing continued deterioration even after the initial crash.

This pattern — a sharp spike to a blow-off high followed by rapid reversion to near the pre-spike base — is the defining signature of a coordinated pump-and-dump. Historically, such patterns rarely produce secondary rallies of comparable magnitude without a fundamental catalyst, and the continued step-down in recent closes suggests the selling is not yet complete.

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$0.5357

Major support

$0.5357

Immediate resistance

$5.73

Major resistance

$1,590.83

The $0.5357 level represents the 31-day swing low and is the only meaningful OHLC-derived support; a break below it would place the token in uncharted territory with no technical floor. The $5.73 immediate resistance is the nearest overhead level that must be reclaimed for any short-term recovery narrative to hold. The $1,590.83 major resistance is the blow-off top and is effectively unreachable without a complete market structure change — it serves as a reference for the magnitude of the collapse rather than a realistic near-term target.

Holder Metrics

Total Holders

1,491,134

24h Change

+199

Growth Rate

+0.013%

The 1.49M holder count is a direct artifact of the community-wide airdrop rather than organic accumulation, making it a misleading proxy for genuine community engagement. The 30-day net decline of 1,006 holders alongside a minimal 7-day gain of 13 indicates the holder base is slowly contracting, with the 24h addition of 199 wallets likely representing opportunistic buyers attracted by the price spike rather than long-term holders.

Holder Distribution

Concentration Risk: Medium

Top 10 Holders

23%

Top 100 Holders

44%

Retail Holders

56.0%

The top 10 holders control 23% of supply, but one position (2.39%) belongs to a SushiSwap protocol contract and is not dumpable. The genuine dumpable supply from individual whales is 23.1%, which is moderate rather than critical. However, the risk is amplified by the fact that the largest individual whale (10%) holds a zero-cost-basis airdrop position acquired on launch day, meaning the economic incentive to sell is present at any price above zero.

Whale Activity

Sentiment: Distributing
  • Largest recent sell: $31 by 0x34a5f8 — the single largest trade in the recent activity log, reflecting the near-total absence of meaningful liquidity
  • Only buy in recent activity: $21 by 0x70243f — dwarfed by sell-side activity and insufficient to signal genuine accumulation

The six largest recent on-chain swaps are predominantly sells: $31 sell (0x34a5f8), $19 sell (0xc082b2), $14 sell (0x57902b), $13 sell (0x64809f), $12 sell (0xc082b2 again), with only one buy of $21 (0x70243f). These are extremely small dollar amounts relative to the market cap, confirming that whale-sized holders are not actively trading — the market has been abandoned by large participants.

The whale wallet data reveals a token where the largest holders are passive airdrop recipients rather than active market participants. The 10% whale (0xdaaf02) has made no DEX swaps since receiving its position on launch day, representing a dormant but potentially destabilizing overhang. Active trading is confined to very small retail-sized transactions, and the overall whale sentiment is distributing based on the sell-dominated recent trade log.

Smart Money Indicators

Confidence

Low

Profit-Taking Risk

High

Smart-money profitable-trader cohort data is unavailable for TABOSHI; no assessment of early buyer positioning can be made from the provided data.

Smart-money data is unavailable for this token. Given the zero-cost-basis airdrop structure for the majority of holders and the post-pump price environment, profit-taking risk is assessed as high on a structural basis — any holder who received tokens via airdrop is in profit at any price above zero and faces no psychological barrier to selling.

Liquidity Analysis

Total Liquidity

$4,611

Depth

Shallow

Slippage Risk

High

A liquidity pool of only $4,611 against a $2.4M market cap (0.19% liquidity-to-mcap ratio) is critically shallow. A trade of even $500 would represent over 10% of the pool and cause severe price impact. This means the stated market cap is largely theoretical — the token cannot be meaningfully liquidated at anywhere near the current price, and any coordinated sell from a whale holding even 1% of supply would likely crash the price to the $0.54 support or below.

Overall Risk

Very high

Risk Score

88/100

Risk Breakdown

  • VolatilityHigh

    Daily return volatility of 2,132.6% (standard deviation of daily returns) is among the highest possible for any asset. The 31-day price range spans from $0.54 to $1,590.83 — a 2,970x range — confirming that price discovery is driven entirely by speculative momentum rather than fundamental value.

  • LiquidityHigh

    Total pool liquidity of $4,611 against a $2.4M market cap creates a 0.19% liquidity ratio, meaning the token is effectively illiquid for any position larger than a few hundred dollars. Exit risk for holders of meaningful size is severe, and the market cap figure is largely notional.

  • ConcentrationMedium

    Dumpable supply of 23.1% from individual whale wallets is moderate, but the risk is elevated by the zero-cost-basis nature of the largest positions (acquired via airdrop at launch). The 10% whale with a launch-day wallet and no trading history represents a specific, unquantifiable overhang risk.

  • Smart ContractMedium

    A security score of 63/100 with a verified contract represents a mixed picture. The verification is positive, but the below-average score suggests unresolved technical risks in the contract logic that require independent audit review.

  • RegulatoryMedium

    As a meme token with no utility, TABOSHI faces the standard regulatory risks applicable to speculative crypto assets in most jurisdictions. The airdrop distribution model may attract additional scrutiny in jurisdictions that classify token distributions as securities offerings.

Key Risks

  • The 10% whale wallet (0xdaaf02) was activated 32 seconds after contract creation and received its position via transfer/airdrop with no DEX trading history — this is a strong insider allocation signal, and a single sell decision from this wallet could eliminate a significant portion of the remaining liquidity pool
  • With only $4,611 in liquidity, the token's $2.4M market cap is almost entirely theoretical; any attempt by holders with positions above ~$500 to exit will result in catastrophic slippage, effectively trapping capital
  • The blow-off top price pattern ($1,590.83 peak followed by 99.8% collapse in 7 days) with 92.3% sell pressure and zero recent buy-side activity is consistent with a coordinated pump-and-dump, suggesting the token may have been deliberately manipulated and the current price may not represent a genuine floor

Mitigating Factors

  • The token has survived 28.6 months without a contract exploit or complete abandonment, providing a minimal baseline of operational continuity
  • The broad airdrop distribution to 954,223 wallets means a future viral social catalyst could theoretically re-engage a large dormant holder base without requiring new capital formation

Investor Suitability

TABOSHI is suitable only for highly risk-tolerant speculators who treat it as a lottery-ticket position with full expectation of total loss. It is entirely unsuitable for risk-averse investors, those seeking capital preservation, or anyone allocating more than a trivial fraction of their portfolio. The combination of near-zero liquidity, post-pump price structure, and insider-allocated whale positions makes this one of the highest-risk token profiles possible.

TABOSHI presents an asymmetric but overwhelmingly negative risk/reward profile: the downside is near-total loss of any invested capital given the liquidity and structural conditions, while the upside depends entirely on an unpredictable social media catalyst re-engaging a largely passive airdrop holder base. The token's 28.6-month survival and broad distribution are the only structural positives in an otherwise deeply bearish setup.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

A viral social media moment or Base chain ecosystem event re-engages the 1.49M holder base, driving a coordinated buy campaign that overwhelms the shallow $4,611 liquidity pool and produces another speculative spike. Given the zero-cost-basis structure of most holders, even a modest price increase would generate significant paper gains and could attract momentum traders.

  • Viral social media catalyst targeting the Base community's existing TABOSHI holders
  • Broader Base chain meme-token season lifting all community tokens indiscriminately

Base Case

TABOSHI drifts sideways to lower in the $0.54–$3.49 range with minimal trading activity, as the post-pump selling pressure gradually exhausts itself against a backdrop of near-zero liquidity and passive holder disengagement. The token survives but remains a dormant, illiquid asset with no price discovery.

  • The 10% insider whale remains dormant and does not initiate a large sell
  • No significant social media catalyst emerges to re-engage the airdrop holder base

Bear Case

High probability

The 10% insider whale (0xdaaf02) or other large airdrop recipients begin selling into the thin $4,611 liquidity pool, driving the price below the $0.54 support and toward zero. With no utility, no active development signals, and a post-pump holder base that is largely disengaged, the token gradually loses its remaining liquidity and becomes untradeable.

  • Insider whale liquidation of the 10% zero-cost-basis position into the illiquid pool
  • Continued holder attrition (already -1,006 over 30 days) with no new demand catalyst

Analysis Details

Generated

Aug 4, 2026, 09:45 PM UTC

Data Freshness

Real-time on-chain data with 31-day OHLC history

Model Confidence

Low

Data Snapshot

Price

$3.486348562483342128

Market Cap

$2.41M

24h Volume

$22.4K

Holders

1,491,134

Liquidity

$4.6K

Data Sources

On-chain transaction data (Uniswap v3 on Base chain)Holder distribution analytics (Moralis holder tier classification)Daily OHLC price history (31-day window)Whale wallet forensics and DEX swap historySmart contract security assessmentToken genesis and deployer profile data

Limitations

  • Smart-money profitable-trader cohort data was unavailable, limiting the ability to assess informed capital positioning
  • The 2,132.6% daily volatility makes any price target highly unreliable — the computed levels are OHLC-derived reference points, not probabilistic forecasts
  • The 90-day price trend data was unavailable, limiting the medium-term trend analysis to the 30-day window only

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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