NVDAc

NVIDIA Corporation Price Today & AI Analysis

NVDAcBaseAnalysis as of Aug 27, 2026

Price

$230.4

-1.85% 24h

Contract

Live
0xb20000000000000000000078ee7ce2fe4908108c

Chain

Base

Holders

15.3K

Market cap

$5.50M

Liquidity

$1.39M

At a $50M market cap, $NVDAC would be $2,093.07 (9.08x from today’s price)

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NVIDIA Corporation: holders, selling & liquidity

2026-08-27 14:19 UTC

Holder addresses

4,104

Top 10 supply share

Not available

Reported liquidity

Not available
How concentrated is NVIDIA Corporation ownership?
Top-10 ownership concentration is not available in this report. The saved holder count is 4,104 addresses (2026-08-27 14:19 UTC). A holder count alone does not establish how supply is distributed.
Are large holders selling NVIDIA Corporation?
This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. A complete buy/sell volume observation is not available in the saved inputs. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.
Is NVIDIA Corporation liquidity falling?
Liquidity is not available in the saved inputs. At least two timestamped liquidity observations are needed to establish a change; this report does not have them.
Sources, observations & limitations

Source: inputs saved with the report generated 2026-08-27 14:19 UTC. Original provider retrieval times and historical samples were not recorded. Legacy zero placeholders are treated as unavailable. Holder addresses are not unique people. The provider’s top-10 share is not adjusted here for pools, exchanges, burn addresses or related wallets. Sniper classifications and wallet-level holder history are unavailable. Inspect token on the block explorer.

Recent swap evidence

Swap evidence is unavailable for this report.

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Movement since report

report from Aug 27, 2026, 02:19 PM UTC

Market Cap

$2.93M

24h Volume

$0.00

Liquidity

—

FDV

—

Holders

4,104

24h

Loading trading activity…

AI Executive Summary

Risk

High

Sentiment

Bearish

NVDAc is a 15-day-old regulated tokenized security issued by Coinbase Onchain SPV Ltd in the ADGM, providing on-chain economic exposure to Nvidia shares at a current price of $225.78 and a market cap of approximately $2.93M. The token is structurally unique in the RWA/tokenized-stock category: it carries a hard NAV anchor to NVDA equity, is backed by segregated custody, and operates under a formal legal framework with authorized participants. However, the on-chain reality is highly concentrated — the top 10 holders control 100% of supply, and dumpable supply from individual whale wallets exceeds the entire reported circulating supply, creating significant short-term price risk. Holder growth has been explosive (87% in 7 days, 100% since launch), but the token's 11-day price history shows a steep drawdown from a $493.82 launch high to the current $225.78, and the absence of 30d/90d trend data limits analytical confidence.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Aug 27, 2026, 02:19 PM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Key points

  • Regulated tokenized security issued by Coinbase Onchain SPV Ltd under ADGM jurisdiction, with underlying NVDA shares held in segregated custody — a hard NAV floor distinguishes it from speculative tokens.
  • Dividends and corporate actions are reinvested and reflected through an adjusted share-to-token ratio rather than cash distributions, creating a compounding NAV mechanism.
  • Authorized Participant redemption mechanism allows eligible holders to redeem tokens for actual NVDA shares, providing a direct arbitrage link between the token price and equity NAV.

NVIDIA Corporation AI Price Analysis

Low Confidence

Short-Term · 24h-7d

Bullish

NVDAc has posted a modest but consistent recovery over the past 7 days (+4.1%), with the most recent daily closes forming a clear ascending sequence from $209.11 to $225.78. Price is currently pressing against the immediate resistance at $226.61, and a confirmed break above that level would open the path toward the next meaningful swing high. The token sits at only 8% of its 11-day range ($203–$493.82), meaning the bulk of the historical price discovery lies well above current levels.

Medium-Term · 30d-90d

Bullish

With only 11 days of price history available, 30d and 90d trend data are absent, but the structural setup is constructive: the token launched at prices that briefly touched $493.82 before correcting sharply, and the current base-building near $215–$226 represents a potential accumulation zone. If Coinbase's tokenized-stock infrastructure gains broader DeFi adoption and NVDA equity continues its secular growth trajectory, NVDAc should track higher. The primary medium-term risk is that the token remains thinly traded and highly concentrated, which can amplify drawdowns if large holders exit.

Bullish Factors

  • Seven-day price trend is +4.1% with the last six daily closes forming a clear ascending sequence ($209.11 → $225.78), confirming short-term upward momentum.
  • Holder base grew 87% in 7 days (from ~530 to 4,104 holders), signalling rapidly expanding market awareness and demand for the product.
  • The token is a regulated, Coinbase-issued tokenized security backed 1:1 by real NVDA shares held in segregated custody, giving it a hard NAV floor tied to the underlying equity price.
  • Security score of 82/100 with a verified contract reduces smart-contract exploit risk relative to anonymous DeFi tokens.

Bearish Factors

  • Price sits at only 8% of its 11-day range ($203–$493.82), meaning it has already retraced ~54% from its launch-day high of $493.82 — a severe drawdown that has not yet been recovered.
  • Dumpable supply is reported at 302.7% of current circulating supply across individual whale wallets, creating outsized sell-side overhang relative to the float.
  • The two largest individual whales (120.93% and 66.95% of supply) acquired their positions via transfer/airdrop rather than market buys, meaning their cost basis is near zero and any sale is pure profit — maximising dump incentive.
  • Smart-money data shows only one profitable trader (+$29,196 realized), while five tracked wallets are all in the red across 1,000+ trades each, indicating the token has not rewarded active trading.

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

Token Info

Chain
Base
Contract
0xb200...108c
Total Supply
—
Decimals
—

Key Risks

  • Insider/authorized-participant distribution risk: the two largest individual whales hold 120.93% and 66.95% of supply at near-zero cost basis via transfer/airdrop, and all recent notable trades are sells — sustained distribution could push price well below the $203 major support.
  • Deployer wallet anomaly: the mint recipient (0xb623e3b9) was created only 34 days before launch, funded by an unlabelled wallet, and has zero prior contract deployments — this profile is inconsistent with Coinbase's institutional infrastructure and should be independently verified against official Coinbase product documentation.
  • Redemption access risk: DeFi holders who acquired NVDAc via swap may be unable to redeem for underlying NVDA shares if they cannot satisfy KYC/AML, vesting, and sanctions-screening requirements, meaning their only exit is the secondary market — which is thin and sell-side dominated.

Trading Insight

bearish

All six of the largest recent on-chain swaps are sells, ranging from $734 to $2,731, with no notable buy-side transactions visible in the recent trade data. This one-sided sell flow, combined with a price that has retraced ~54% from its launch high, suggests that early recipients of transferred/airdropped supply are systematically liquidating positions. The holder count growth is encouraging but has not yet translated into meaningful buy-side volume pressure.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d)

Bullish

Medium-Term (30d)

Bearish

The short-term picture (last 6 daily closes) is a clear uptrend: $209.11 → $214.02 → $219.03 → $225.78, recovering from the intra-period low of $209.11. However, the medium-term context is bearish — the token launched near $493.82 and has since lost approximately 54% of its value, with the current price sitting at only 8% of the full 11-day range. The short-term recovery is a counter-trend bounce within a larger downtrend until price reclaims significantly higher levels.

Momentum

Status

Neutral

Daily volatility of 2.1% (standard deviation of daily returns) is moderate for a tokenized equity product. The recent ascending closes suggest building upward momentum in the short term, but the token remains far below its launch-high of $493.82, and the absence of 30d/90d data prevents a confident momentum classification beyond the immediate window.

Volume Analysis

Buy

20%

Sell

80%

Volume Trend

Stable

Granular volume data by day was not provided. The six notable recent trades are all sells of small-to-moderate size ($734–$2,731), implying thin daily volume. For a $2.93M market-cap token, even modest sell orders can move price meaningfully, which is consistent with the observed daily volatility of 2.1%.

Recent Price Action

The most recent 11 daily closes show a sharp drop from the launch-period high (~$493.82) to a trough around $209.11, followed by a six-session recovery to $225.78. The recovery is gradual and low-volatility, forming a shallow ascending channel.

A shallow recovery after a steep drawdown in a concentrated, low-liquidity token often reflects thin buy-side absorption of insider selling rather than genuine demand-driven accumulation. Confirmation of a trend reversal would require a sustained close above the immediate resistance at $226.61 with expanding volume.

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$218.51

Major support

$203

Immediate resistance

$226.61

Major resistance

$493.82

The immediate support at $218.51 aligns closely with the third individual whale's average buy price of $218.31, suggesting this level has real cost-basis significance. Major support at $203 represents the 11-day range low — a breach would set a new all-time low for the token. The immediate resistance at $226.61 is the first hurdle for continuation of the short-term recovery. The major resistance at $493.82 is the launch-day high and represents a 119% upside from current price — reclaiming it would require either a dramatic increase in NVDA's equity price or a significant re-rating of the token's liquidity premium.

AI overall risk

High

Risk Score

72/100

Risk Breakdown

  • VolatilityMedium

    Daily return volatility of 2.1% is moderate, but the token has already experienced a ~54% drawdown from its $493.82 launch high in just 11 days. The NAV anchor to NVDA equity provides a theoretical floor, but thin liquidity means the token can trade at significant discounts or premiums to NAV.

  • LiquidityNot assessed

    A liquidity observation is not available in the saved inputs.

  • ConcentrationNot assessed

    Ownership concentration cannot be assessed without a measured supply distribution.

  • Smart ContractNot assessed

    Contract or authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations.

  • RegulatoryHigh

    As a tokenized security issued under ADGM jurisdiction, NVDAc is subject to securities regulations that may restrict trading, transfer, and redemption for holders in many jurisdictions. Regulatory changes in the US, EU, or ADGM could materially affect the token's legality, tradability, or redemption rights.

Key Risks

  • Insider/authorized-participant distribution risk: the two largest individual whales hold 120.93% and 66.95% of supply at near-zero cost basis via transfer/airdrop, and all recent notable trades are sells — sustained distribution could push price well below the $203 major support.
  • Deployer wallet anomaly: the mint recipient (0xb623e3b9) was created only 34 days before launch, funded by an unlabelled wallet, and has zero prior contract deployments — this profile is inconsistent with Coinbase's institutional infrastructure and should be independently verified against official Coinbase product documentation.
  • Redemption access risk: DeFi holders who acquired NVDAc via swap may be unable to redeem for underlying NVDA shares if they cannot satisfy KYC/AML, vesting, and sanctions-screening requirements, meaning their only exit is the secondary market — which is thin and sell-side dominated.

Mitigating Factors

  • The token is backed by real NVDA shares in segregated custody under a regulated ADGM framework, providing a hard NAV floor that prevents the token from going to zero as long as the issuer structure remains intact.
  • Wintermute's presence as a top holder/liquidity provider suggests professional market-making support, which should reduce extreme price dislocations from NAV over time.

Investor Suitability

This token may be suitable for sophisticated investors who (1) have independently verified the contract address against Coinbase's official tokenized-stock product registry, (2) satisfy the KYC/AML and jurisdictional eligibility requirements for redemption, (3) understand the counterparty risk to Coinbase Onchain SPV Ltd, and (4) can tolerate high liquidity risk and near-term sell pressure from insider distribution. It is not suitable for retail investors seeking liquid, low-risk equity exposure.

NVDAc occupies a genuinely novel position as a regulated, DeFi-composable tokenized Nvidia share — a product category with long-term structural tailwinds as TradFi and DeFi converge. However, the 15-day-old token is in a fragile early phase characterized by extreme supply concentration, insider distribution pressure, and thin liquidity, making the near-term risk/reward asymmetric to the downside.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

Coinbase's tokenized-stock infrastructure gains regulatory approval in major jurisdictions, driving institutional and retail demand for on-chain NVDA exposure. Nvidia's equity continues its AI-driven growth, mechanically lifting NVDAc's NAV. Liquidity deepens as more DeFi protocols integrate the token, compressing the discount to NAV and driving price back toward the $493.82 launch high.

  • Regulatory clarity for tokenized securities in the US and EU, enabling broader distribution and DeFi integration
  • Continued Nvidia equity outperformance driven by AI infrastructure demand, lifting the underlying NAV

Base Case

NVDAc stabilizes in the $203–$226 range as insider distribution is gradually absorbed by new holders attracted by the Coinbase brand and NVDA equity exposure. Liquidity remains thin, price tracks NVDA equity directionally but with a persistent discount to NAV, and the token grows slowly as Coinbase expands its tokenized-stock product suite.

  • Insider distribution pressure moderates as the largest whale wallets reduce their positions to more manageable sizes over the next 30–60 days
  • Coinbase maintains the segregated custody structure and ADGM regulatory compliance, preserving the NAV anchor

Bear Case

Medium probability

The two largest individual whale wallets (holding 120.93% and 66.95% of supply at near-zero cost basis) continue systematic distribution into the thin order book, driving price below the $203 major support. Regulatory scrutiny of tokenized securities in key jurisdictions restricts trading, and the token trades at a persistent discount to NVDA NAV due to illiquidity and compliance friction.

  • Continued insider/authorized-participant sell pressure from wallets with near-zero cost basis and no holding incentive
  • Regulatory restrictions on tokenized-security trading in major jurisdictions reducing the addressable buyer pool

Analysis Details

Generated

Aug 27, 2026, 02:19 PM UTC

Saved observation

2026-08-27 14:19 UTC

Model Confidence

Low

Data Snapshot

Price

$Unknown

Market Cap

$2.93M

24h Volume

$0

Holders

4,104

Liquidity

Not available

Data Sources

On-chain transaction data (token genesis, deployer profile, whale wallet intel)Holder distribution analytics (size buckets, acquisition methods, growth trajectory)Daily OHLC price history (11-day window, swing high/low derived key levels)Smart contract security assessment (verified contract, security score)Smart money realized PnL data (top profitable traders)Notable recent trade data (largest on-chain swaps)

Limitations

  • Only 11 days of OHLC price history available — 30d and 90d trend data are absent, severely limiting medium-term technical analysis confidence.
  • The dumpable supply figure of 302.7% exceeds reported circulating supply, suggesting a data anomaly or structural accounting difference in the tokenized-security framework that could not be fully resolved from available data.
  • The deployer wallet anomaly (disposable-deployer profile) could not be independently verified against Coinbase's official product registry within this analysis — investors must perform this verification independently.
  • Granular 24h trading volume, buy/sell counts, and liquidity depth figures were not available in the provided data, limiting trading-activity analysis precision.

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency and tokenized-security investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The presence of a Coinbase brand association in the token description has not been independently verified by this analysis.

Questions about NVDAc?