LCAP

CF Large Cap Index Price Today & AI Analysis

LCAPBaseAnalysis as of Aug 5, 2026

Price

$7.18

+5.46% 24h

Contract

Live
0x4da9a0f397db1397902070f93a4d6ddbc0e0e6e8

Chain

Base

Holders

19.8K

Market cap

$5.15M

Liquidity

$262.30K

More tokens on Base

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CF Large Cap Index: holders, selling & liquidity

2026-08-05 23:01 UTC

Holder addresses

19,540

Top 10 supply share

Not available

Reported liquidity

Not available
How concentrated is CF Large Cap Index ownership?
Top-10 ownership concentration is not available in this report. The saved holder count is 19,540 addresses (2026-08-05 23:01 UTC). A holder count alone does not establish how supply is distributed.
Are large holders selling CF Large Cap Index?
This report cannot establish whether large holders are selling: it does not include wallet-level holder balances over time matched to swaps. A complete buy/sell volume observation is not available in the saved inputs. A large swap alone does not identify a large holder, and a transfer alone does not prove a sale.
Is CF Large Cap Index liquidity falling?
Liquidity is not available in the saved inputs. At least two timestamped liquidity observations are needed to establish a change; this report does not have them.
Sources, observations & limitations

Source: inputs saved with the report generated 2026-08-05 23:01 UTC. Original provider retrieval times and historical samples were not recorded. Legacy zero placeholders are treated as unavailable. Holder addresses are not unique people. The provider’s top-10 share is not adjusted here for pools, exchanges, burn addresses or related wallets. Sniper classifications and wallet-level holder history are unavailable. Inspect token on the block explorer.

Recent swap evidence

Swap evidence is unavailable for this report.

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Movement since report

report from Aug 5, 2026, 11:01 PM UTC

Market Cap

$4.18M

24h Volume

$0.00

Liquidity

—

FDV

—

Holders

19,540

24h

Loading trading activity…

AI Executive Summary

Risk

Very high

Sentiment

Bearish

LCAP (CF Large Cap Index) is an on-chain index token on Base (0x2105) designed to represent approximately 95% of the investable digital asset universe, rebalanced quarterly by CF Benchmarks. With a market cap of ~$4.18M and a fully diluted valuation of ~$2.22M — notably lower than market cap, suggesting a supply/pricing anomaly — the token has 19,540 holders but is overwhelmingly concentrated in two individual whale wallets. The 90-day price trend is -21.2%, with the token trading at $5.37 near the lower quarter of its 90-day range, reflecting sustained bearish pressure. The index concept is institutionally credible, but on-chain dynamics — including non-market whale acquisitions and near-zero retail supply — present significant structural risks.

Figures cited above are from the market snapshot taken when this analysis ran — Aug 5, 2026, 11:01 PM UTC. Live values may differ; the key facts at the top of the page are current.

Key points

  • Backed by CF Benchmarks' regulated index methodology, providing a rules-based, quarterly-rebalanced exposure to the largest crypto assets — a rare institutional-grade structure in DeFi
  • Virtually all supply (100% of top 10 and top 100) is held by a small set of wallets, with two individual whales alone holding positions that together exceed 100% of dumpable supply — an extreme concentration anomaly
  • Acquisition method skews heavily toward swaps (17,459 holders) yet the largest whale positions were acquired via transfer/airdrop with no DEX activity, creating a two-tier holder structure of passive insiders and active retail traders

CF Large Cap Index AI Price Analysis

Low Confidence

Short-Term · 24h-7d

Bearish

LCAP is trading at $5.37, sitting at just 27% of its 90-day range ($4.75–$6.99), with immediate resistance at $5.38 only $0.01 above the current price. The 7-day gain of +1.2% is a minor bounce within a dominant 90-day downtrend of -21.2%, and recent daily closes show a drift from $5.46 down to $5.33 with no sustained recovery. The price is effectively pinned between tight support at $5.35 and resistance at $5.38, suggesting continued compression before a likely downside resolution.

Medium-Term · 30d-90d

Bearish

The 90-day decline of -21.2% and a 30-day loss of -1.5% establish a clear medium-term downtrend with no structural reversal signal yet. Price remains well below the 90-day high of $6.99, and the major support at $4.75 is the next meaningful floor if the $5.35 level breaks. A recovery toward major resistance at $6.99 would require a fundamental shift in broader crypto market conditions or a significant rebalancing event that draws new capital into the index.

Bullish Factors

  • The 7-day price change of +1.2% represents a short-term stabilization after a prolonged 90-day decline of -21.2%, suggesting potential exhaustion of selling pressure near the $5.12 recent low
  • Smart money traders are actively profitable on this token: the top trader (0x723404) has realized +$114,291 at +11% across 2,516 trades, indicating the token is tradeable with positive expected value for skilled participants
  • LCAP's index methodology — tracking ~95% of investable crypto market cap with quarterly rebalancing by regulated CF Benchmarks — provides a structural value anchor tied to the broader market rather than a single speculative asset

Bearish Factors

  • The dominant 90-day trend is -21.2%, with price sitting at only 27% of the 90-day range, indicating persistent selling pressure and no recovery to prior highs
  • Holder growth is negligible: only 35 new holders over 30 days (+0.18%) and 4 over 7 days (+0.02%), signaling virtually no new demand entering the token
  • Recent notable trades are overwhelmingly sell-side: 4 of the 6 largest recent on-chain swaps were sells (totaling ~$5,121 vs. ~$409 in buys), confirming net outflow pressure at current price levels

Disclaimer: This AI-generated prediction is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

Token Info

Chain
Base
Contract
0x4da9...e6e8
Total Supply
—
Decimals
—

Key Risks

  • Whale dump risk: 0xe92e65 holds 97.35% of supply with a zero cost basis (transfer acquisition) and no prior DEX activity — a single decision to sell would be existential for the token price given thin liquidity
  • Supply accounting anomaly: dumpable supply of 149.4% exceeding 100% of total supply is unexplained and may indicate rebasing mechanics, synthetic minting, or data errors — any of which could create unexpected supply inflation events
  • Sustained downtrend with no reversal signal: the 90-day decline of -21.2% with price at 27% of range and near-stagnant holder growth (-0.18% monthly) suggests the token is in a structural decline phase with no identifiable catalyst for recovery

Trading Insight

bearish

Recent on-chain swap activity is sell-dominated, with 4 of the 6 largest recent trades being sells and buy-side volume representing less than 8% of recent notable trade flow. The token's 19,540 holders are growing at a near-stagnant pace of 35 over 30 days, and the absence of any large buy-side whale movements confirms a lack of accumulation interest at current prices.

AI-generated insight. Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Trend Analysis

Short-Term (7d)

Neutral

Medium-Term (30d)

Bearish

The 7-day change of +1.2% reflects a brief sideways consolidation after a sharp 90-day decline of -21.2%, but this is not a reversal — it is compression. The 30-day change of -1.5% confirms the medium-term trend remains bearish, and the price at 27% of the 90-day range ($4.75–$6.99) shows the token is trading near multi-month lows with no technical evidence of a base forming.

Momentum

Status

Oversold

A -21.2% decline over 90 days with price sitting at the lower quarter of the range and daily volatility of only 2.2% suggests momentum has decelerated — the aggressive selling phase may be exhausting, but no positive momentum signal has emerged. The recent daily close sequence ($5.46 → $5.33) shows a mild downward drift even within the short-term consolidation.

Volume Analysis

Buy

7%

Sell

93%

Volume Trend

Stable

Granular 24h volume data is not available in the provided dataset. Based on the size of recent notable trades (maximum single trade of $3,921), trading activity appears thin and consistent with a low-liquidity index token. The stable but low volume environment means price moves can be disproportionately large relative to trade size.

Recent Price Action

The last 14 daily closes show a range-bound pattern between $5.12 and $5.53, with a brief dip to $5.12 followed by a partial recovery to $5.37. The price is now sandwiched between immediate support at $5.35 and immediate resistance at $5.38 — a $0.03 compression band.

This tight compression after a prolonged downtrend typically resolves in the direction of the prior trend (bearish), though a catalyst-driven breakout above $5.38 could test the next meaningful level. The $0.03 band between immediate support and resistance is unusually tight and suggests an imminent directional move.

Key Price Levels

Immediate support

$5.35

Major support

$4.75

Immediate resistance

$5.38

Major resistance

$6.99

The $5.35–$5.38 band is the critical near-term battleground; a close below $5.35 would confirm continuation of the 90-day downtrend toward major support at $4.75 (the 90-day low). A sustained break above $5.38 would be the first technical positive signal but would still face the long road back to major resistance at $6.99, which represents the 90-day high and a 30% upside from current levels.

AI overall risk

Very high

Risk Score

82/100

Risk Breakdown

  • VolatilityMedium

    Daily volatility of 2.2% (standard deviation of daily returns) is moderate for a crypto asset, but the 90-day decline of -21.2% demonstrates sustained directional risk. The tight current price range ($5.35–$5.38) suggests compressed volatility that may resolve sharply.

  • LiquidityNot assessed

    A liquidity observation is not available in the saved inputs.

  • ConcentrationNot assessed

    Ownership concentration cannot be assessed without a measured supply distribution.

  • Smart ContractNot assessed

    Contract or authority checks are not included in the saved provider observations.

  • RegulatoryMedium

    As an on-chain index product tracking crypto assets and backed by CF Benchmarks (a regulated entity), LCAP may face regulatory scrutiny as a securities-adjacent product. Index tokens that track asset baskets could be classified as investment products in certain jurisdictions, creating compliance risk for holders and operators.

Key Risks

  • Whale dump risk: 0xe92e65 holds 97.35% of supply with a zero cost basis (transfer acquisition) and no prior DEX activity — a single decision to sell would be existential for the token price given thin liquidity
  • Supply accounting anomaly: dumpable supply of 149.4% exceeding 100% of total supply is unexplained and may indicate rebasing mechanics, synthetic minting, or data errors — any of which could create unexpected supply inflation events
  • Sustained downtrend with no reversal signal: the 90-day decline of -21.2% with price at 27% of range and near-stagnant holder growth (-0.18% monthly) suggests the token is in a structural decline phase with no identifiable catalyst for recovery

Mitigating Factors

  • CF Benchmarks' regulated index methodology provides a rules-based rebalancing structure that anchors LCAP's value to the broader crypto market rather than speculative narratives
  • Smart money traders are actively profitable on the token (top trader: +$114,291 realized), confirming the token remains tradeable and has not lost all market function

Investor Suitability

LCAP in its current on-chain state is suitable only for sophisticated investors who fully understand the extreme concentration risk, the supply accounting anomaly, and the sustained downtrend. The index concept may appeal to institutional participants seeking diversified crypto exposure, but the on-chain implementation carries very high structural risk that is inconsistent with the conservative, diversified mandate the product claims to represent.

LCAP presents an institutionally credible index concept — regulated CF Benchmarks methodology, diversified large-cap crypto exposure — but the on-chain reality is dominated by extreme whale concentration, a 90-day downtrend of -21.2%, and near-zero retail participation. The gap between the product's stated purpose and its actual on-chain structure is the central tension for any investment thesis.

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case

Low probability

A broad crypto market rally lifts the underlying index constituents, mechanically increasing LCAP's net asset value and attracting institutional inflows. A quarterly rebalancing event generates publicity and trading activity, and one or more of the protocol/contract holders (positions 4–10) represents a liquidity mechanism that begins distributing tokens to new participants, improving the supply distribution.

  • Broad crypto market recovery driving index NAV appreciation
  • Institutional adoption of on-chain index products as regulated DeFi infrastructure matures

Base Case

LCAP continues to trade in a slow downtrend, oscillating between $4.75 major support and $5.38 immediate resistance, with thin volume and negligible holder growth. The token maintains its market cap in the low single-digit millions, serving a small niche of institutional or semi-institutional participants while retail engagement remains minimal.

  • The dominant whale wallets remain inactive on DEX, preventing a catastrophic dump but also providing no buying support
  • Broader crypto market conditions remain range-bound, neither catalyzing a sharp LCAP recovery nor triggering panic selling

Bear Case

High probability

The dominant whale wallet (0xe92e65, 97.35% of supply, zero cost basis) begins selling into the thin liquidity, triggering a price collapse toward or below the major support at $4.75. Continued stagnant holder growth and sell-dominated retail flow accelerate the 90-day downtrend, and the FDV/market cap anomaly is revealed to reflect a structural token mechanic flaw.

  • Zero-cost-basis whale liquidation into shallow liquidity
  • Continued holder growth stagnation with no new demand catalyst

Analysis Details

Generated

Aug 5, 2026, 11:01 PM UTC

Saved observation

2026-08-05 23:01 UTC

Model Confidence

Low

Data Snapshot

Price

$Unknown

Market Cap

$4.18M

24h Volume

$0

Holders

19,540

Liquidity

Not available

Data Sources

On-chain transaction data (Base chain, contract 0x4da9a0f397db1397902070f93a4d6ddbc0e0e6e8)Holder distribution analytics (Moralis holder size buckets and concentration metrics)90-day daily OHLC price history and computed swing high/low key levelsSmart money realized PnL data (top profitable traders)Whale wallet forensics (DEX swap history, first active date, acquisition method)Notable recent on-chain swap dataSmart contract security assessment (score: 64/100, verified status)

Limitations

  • Liquidity pool depth data was not provided, preventing precise slippage and liquidity risk quantification
  • The dumpable supply figure of 149.4% exceeds 100% and cannot be fully explained from available data — this anomaly limits the reliability of concentration risk calculations
  • 24h transaction count, buy/sell counts, and volume figures were not available in the provided dataset, limiting short-term trading analysis precision
  • The FDV being lower than market cap is an unexplained anomaly that may reflect token rebasing mechanics not fully disclosed in the available data

How we keep this honest

Every directional call on these pages is recorded before the outcome is known and scored on our public prediction track record. We apply the same standard to others: our audit of 1,581 crypto YouTube predictions found bullish calls did worse than random timing, and our memecoin pump anatomy study measured what chasing a pump actually costs.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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